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FXAK67 PAJK 282230

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
230 PM AKDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...Wednesday night through Friday night...A high
pressure system over the eastern Gulf will move inland tonight
and exit the region. A low pressure system developing across the
Northeast Pacific will move north into the Southwest Gulf Thursday
night. A front associated with the low pressure system will move
into the eastern Gulf Thursday night.  Showers are likely across
the northern portions of the panhandle tonight. Rain chances will
increase on Thursday across most of the panhandle as the low
pressure system advances northward and the frontal boundary moves
into the eastern Gulf. Temperature values Thursday will continue
similar to temperatures which occurred over the past few days
across southeast alaska. Cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will
prevail across the region with a few breaks occurring across the
southern areas of the panhandle tonight and Thursday.

Into Fri another short wave will be riding north along the front
bringing another round of rain to most of the panhandle. Timing has
most of the rain coming for Fri night. This feature is also bringing
some wind into the area but nothing more then 15 to 20 mph and
mostly for the southern panhandle and outer coast with 25 kt winds
for the near coastal waters of the gulf. Increased winds in these
areas as a result. GFS and Nam were main models of choice for the
short range period.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...As of 1030 PM Tues...We
continue to see an upper level ridge with an associated high
pressure at the surface progress east out of the area during the
early weekend timeframe. Precipitation chances will increase as
we move into the weekend, which is in line with the approach of a
surface front, the increasing onshore flow, and plentiful moisture
available. Winds were increased for the post-frontal time period
for northern Lynn Canal late Sunday. Additional shortwaves moving
out of the parent upper level low situated over the gulf will
impact the area Sunday through the rest of the time period of
interest and will continue the likely PoPs trend, with a possible
drier period beginning Tuesday. We`ll continue to monitor
developments for next week.

We strengthened Friday`s front by nudging to the NAM/GFS and made
minor adjustments to the period beyond with WPC guidance. But
overall, few changes were needed. Overall confidence is average.


.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ042-043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ041.




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