Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 011745 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1145 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

North winds at GUY will gradually become light and variable by
late this afternoon. Light and variable winds at DHT and AMA will
become southerly at AMA overnight into Thursday morning and they
will become northwest at DHT after sunrise on Thursday. Skies are
expected to remain VFR.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 526 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017/

For the 12Z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail at all terminal
sites through 12Z Thursday.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 433 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017/

Upper level analysis as of 09z shows broad cyclonic flow over
central US with strong mid/upper level jet pushing into OH Valley.
The trough axis has shifted over the eastern Panhandles with
northwest flow nosing into the western Panhandles per water vapor
imagery. At the surface, the NW/SE oriented cold front has made
it nearly as far south as Lubbock. Temperatures are in the low 20s
across the OK Panhandle to high 20s across the southern TX

While conditions are not expected to be nearly as extreme as
yesterday, fire weather will continue to be the theme through the
extended. The upper level trough will continue eastward today
with a very dry airmass invading in its wake. Dew points will drop
into the single digits across most of the area as dry air aloft
is able to mix down on northwest winds. Temperature are expected
to be in the 50s for most of the area which will result in very
dry RH values once again. Wind speeds will be of most concern
across the northeastern zones closest to the departing upper
trough where the pressure gradient will be strongest (15 to 25
mph). This area can expect to see elevated fire weather conditions
and perhaps a brief period of near critical fire weather
conditions. Did not issue a Red Flag as timing will be the issue.
Winds are expected to be on the decrease as RH values drop.
Elsewhere, northwest winds will be on the lighter side around 10
to 15 mph.

Split flow is progged to develop over the western CONUS leaving
the Panhandles in fairly weak zonal flow through the weekend.
Thursday looks to be the most tranquil day of the week with
surface high pressure expected to move over N Texas by the
afternoon with generally weak southerly flow over the Panhandles.
Temperature should approach 60 on Thursday with a warming trend
through the weekend. From Friday through Sunday the more typical
lee trough starts to kick in as the upper level zonal to
southwesterly flow increases. This will lead to windy, warm and
dry conditions and more fire weather concerns. Critical fire
weather is looking more likely for Friday across most of the area
as the dry air mass prevails. Winds were nudged towards MOS
guidance with 20 to 30 mph winds possible Friday afternoon.

Model guidance starts to deviate going into the early part of next
week. The GFS has shown a similar pattern to what played out
yesterday, with a broad trough moving over southern Rockies and
strong 500mb jet crossing the Panhandles. This solution could
spell more wind headlines and at least critical fire weather
potential on Monday. The ECMWF/Canadian models show a much less
amplified and more progressive trough, keeping enhanced flow north
of the Panhandles and pushing a weak front into the area Monday
which wouldn`t support the wind/fire potential. For now just
sticking with the blend but will need to watch the trends. One
thing models do agree on is that precip will not be in the
forecast any time soon.


Elevated with a brief period of near critical fire weather is
expected today across the eastern Panhandles. Northwest winds
around 15 to 25 mph during the early afternoon will decrease to
around 10 to 15 mph during the late afternoon. RH values will
decrease to around 15 percent by mid to late afternoon. A Fire
Danger Statement has been issued for the eastern Panhandles from
12 PM to 6 PM CST today.

It is looking more likely that critical fire weather conditions
will be prevalent during the afternoon on Friday across most of
the area, with elevated to critical possible on Saturday, Sunday
and Monday.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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