Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 022359 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
659 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
MAY POSE A THREAT TO THE TERMINAL SITES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HAVE RETAINED VCTS AT ALL STIES FROM ABOUT 02Z UNTIL 08Z. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE LOW CIGS AND BR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HAVE COMPROMISED AND RETAINED
PREVIOUS FCST ON THIS ISSUE BY INCLUDING A SCT LOW DECK AT ALL SITES
AS WELL AS A MINOR VSBY RESTRICTION DUE TO BR AT BOTH KGUY AND KDHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE
OMITTED MENTION AT ANY ONE TAF SITE FOR THIS FCST SINCE IT IS NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.  CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED...WITH VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MODEST TO HEALTHY CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.  DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED TO BE AUGMENTED BY WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA AND LOW-LEVEL JET.
HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT.

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE TIME OF GREATEST
CONCERN.  700 MB TROF AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO
CREATE INCREASING SHEAR...LEADING TO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS...
A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST.  60 MPH
WINDS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

LOW POPS RETAINED IN EAST AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WHERE INSTABILITY AND FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY KEPT DRY...WITH LOW POPS RETAINED FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$





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