Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KAMA 140527 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1227 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/

FOR KAMA...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
BEFORE -RA/TSRA DEVELOP NEAR AND MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z.
TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE SO INCLUDED A VCTS AND -RA
VCTS FOR NOW AND KEPT IMPACTS AT A MINIMUM...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH ANY TSRA WITH BEST CHANCES
BETWEEN 22Z-04Z.

FOR KGUY AND KDHT...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT
THINK MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z. BEYOND
15Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -RA/TSRA WILL IMPACT IN AROUND THE
TERMINALS THROUGH 15/06Z WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION SPECIFIC
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

KNS

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING. THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH SO HAVE GONE AND RAISED
POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LOWS TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/

AVIATION...
TSRA WILL TEND TO LINGER LONGER AT THE AMA TAF SITE THIS EVENING. DHT
AND GUY WILL PROBABLY HAVE TSRA MOVE THROUGH DURING THE FIRST COUPLE
OF HOURS OF THIS FORECAST AND THEN THEY SHOULD DRY OUT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO FAR OUT THERE TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND
NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE UNDER 10
KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE PANHANDLES PERIOD OF WETTER WEATHER IS ALMOST HERE AS STORMS ARE
STARTING TO FORM IN KANSAS/COLORADO/NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.
CURRENTLY THINK THE NORTHWEST HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE STORMS AS
THEY CONVERGE AND MOVE SOUTHEAST BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (AND NOW
RADAR) ARE DEPICTING ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT. CURRENTLY THINK THE
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS ON THE LOW END WITH PULSE
STORMS BEING THE MAIN MODE. ALTHOUGH A STRONG GUST OUT OF A STORM IS
DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR STORY MIGHT UNFOLD WITH STORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR TOMORROW
THINK COVERAGE/DURATION LOOKS TO BE A BIT BETTER BUT AGAIN TOMORROW,
AND THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS THE
PREVIOUS DAY, SO PINNING DOWN EXACT TIMING/LOCATION MIGHT BE TRICKY
UNTIL 24-36 HOURS AHEAD OF STORMS. WE WILL GET A BIT OF A HINT OF
THE COOLER WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA
BEFORE WE REALLY COOL DOWN STARTING ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALSO LOOK TO HAVE ANOTHER COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF
STORMS ESPECIALLY IF STORM MOVEMENT CAN BE PARALLEL TO ANY STATIONARY
BOUNDARIES THAT MIGHT BE IN THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK AS LOCATIONS THAT PICK
UP HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN TODAY/TOMORROW MIGHT NEED TO BE LOOKED AT
FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES COME TUESDAY-THURSDAY AS MORE RAIN COULD LEAD
TO PROBLEMS IN SOME AREAS. BUT AGAIN, AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WE LOOK TO DRY OUT
AS THE LOW PRESSURE/ASSOCIATED FRONT/RAIN MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND
SOME SLIGHT RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND TEMPS
LOOK TO RECOVER TO BACK NEAR NORMAL, 90S, ACROSS THE AREA.

MOULTON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.