Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 012314
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
514 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE THREE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...ACROSS THE DALHART TAF SITE BY 01Z
TO 02Z MONDAY AND ACROSS THE AMARILLO AND GUYMON TAF SITES AROUND 04Z
TO 08Z MONDAY. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 04Z TO 06Z MONDAY. THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AFTER 14Z TO 16Z MONDAY...AND THEN DIMINISH AGAIN TO AROUND 5
TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 22Z MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

DRY WEATHER BUT ROLLER COASTER TEMPS CONTINUE TO HEADLINE THE
FORECAST. WE ARE GETTING INTO THE SEASON OF UNDERDONE GUIDANCE TEMPS
ON WARM DAYS AND THIS WILL BE NOTED ESPECIALLY AT THE TAIL END OF
THE FORECAST. THE BIGGEST DILEMMA THIS FCST WAS WHAT TO DO ON
WEDNESDAY AS MODELS WANT TO QUICKLY WARM THE SRN HALF OF THE TX
PANHANDLE UP BEFORE A COLD FRONT COMES BLASTING THROUGH. WENT WITH A
FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COLDER HIGHS FOR WED AS THINK THE FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO JUST SLIP THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA BY MIDDAY.
STRONG CAA BEHIND IT WILL LIKELY MEAN FALLING TEMPS WED AFTERNOON.
DID NOT USE NON DIURNAL TEMPS FOR WED YET GIVEN QUESTIONS ABOUT
FRONTAL TIMING...BUT COULD SEE THESE BEING NECESSARY WHEN FUTURE
FORECASTERS ARE ABLE TO REFINE TIMING. FRIDAY IS LOOKING WARMER AND
SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE BALMY WITH H85 TEMPS ON SAT STILL PROGGED
SOMEWHERE BTW 18-21C WHICH WOULD MIX DOWN TO MID 70S OR WARMER FOR
THE AREA.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/05





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