Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 272304 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
504 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW 10 KNOTS. WINDS COULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY AT KAMA AFTER 18Z
SUNDAY...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 KNOTS.

GARCIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS ENTIRE FORECAST WILL BE DICTATED BY A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED
UPPER TROUGH WHICH INITIALLY STARTS OFF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN EVOLVES INTO A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTED TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TO HUDSON BAY. THEN
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CUTOFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THEN THIS WILL LOW WILL
HEAD TOWARD THE PANHANDLES BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST. AS THIS UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. IT WILL SEND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLES MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS
COLD AIR MASS SATURATES...SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE OFF AND ON. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CONTINUED WITH LOW
POPS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS DISAGREE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THAT MOVES
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE GFS
IS QUICKER WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH
THE LOW POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






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