Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 261751 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
1251 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...Satellite images and surface observations indicate
mostly mid to high level clouds across the CWA early this
afternoon. Ceilings were near 4200ft at KBRO to near 8500ft at
KEBG. Expect VFR conditions to prevail the rest of the afternoon
into this evening as the 500mb ridge across northern Mexico and
the southwest United States continues to provide subsidence across
the Rio Grande valley and the northern ranchlands.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 625 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/
DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...VFR next 24 hours all sites. Look for light winds and
a mix of clouds and sun today under high pressure and the
influence of mid level ridging to the west. A few light showers
over the Gulf may penetrate inland. Will see scattered to broken
low cloud development during the day, but any cigs will be above
3 kft. Mostly clear skies tonight with light winds backing to
northeast on Thursday. Coastal showers may increase from the east
on Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 425 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): H5 ridging over Northwest
Mexico and the Southwest United States. Positive tilt short wave
trough over the plains. Another H5 height center over the Gulf. High
pressure extending southwest from the Atlantic Seaboard to the North
Gulf Coast.

Isolated coastal showers are developing over the Southwest Gulf and
along the West Gulf Coast and are moving north into the local marine
areas. Look for a mix of clouds and sun today with above normal
temperatures, up to 10 degrees above normal, ranging from the lower
to mid 80s at the coast to near 90 inland. A weak sea breeze will be

The base of a mid level trough will dig toward the lower Mississippi
Valley while an inverted mid level trough will move from the Western
Caribbean into the the Southwest Gulf, bringing a pulse of moisture
with it. Thus, mostly quiet conditions expected tonight with ongoing
shower activity moving into the Gulf waters adjacent to the CWA. Low
temps will be in the mid 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast,
about five degrees above normal.

Increased moisture mentioned above will push into the adjacent
coastal waters to the east of the CWA on Thursday, but the going
will get tougher as any shower activity runs into drier air over
land. Have kept pops low on Thursday as a result. Another day of
mixed clouds and sun, with warm afternoon high temperatures.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday): A strong H5 dome of
high pressure will be situated over Northern Mexico/Western Texas
for Thursday night and Friday. Deep South Texas will be on the
eastern edge of the high pressure system...with increasing
subsidence and a large area of dry air aloft. This will keep rain
chances to a minimum...and generally limited to coastal areas.

By the late Friday and into the weekend...the ridge will expanded
eastward and elongate over central Texas as an inverted mid level
trough moves across the Southern Gulf and into the RGV. This
trough will bring an increase in deep layer moisture to the
region...with precipitable water values increasing back in the
1.50" to 2" range. Have continued the overall trend of 30 to 40
percent chances for shower and isolated thunderstorms through the will take time for the mid levels to moisten. Also
long term model guidance is differing...with the GFS scaling back
on POPs...although the ECMWF has increased.

By early next week...the trough will be across interior
Mexico...with the 500mb ridge having shifted over the Gulf in
response. Flow around these to feature will work in tandem to keep
some tropical moisture streaming up into Southern Texas. As
such...rainfall/thunderstorms chances in the forecast for much of
the region.


Today through Thursday...Light to mdt winds and low to mdt seas.
High pressure will provide an east wind initially, but by Thursday
pressure falls to the south over the Southwest Gulf of Mexico will
interact with higher pressure to back local winds to northeast. This
will occur as the center of ridging to the west edges closer to the
area. However, broad H5 troughing over the Western Caribbean,
Yucatan Peninsula, and portions of the Southwest Gulf will support
unsettled weather to the south, some of which will be drawn over the
Lower Texas Coastal Waters, especially by Thursday.

Thursday Night though Sunday Night...Surface high pressure over
the Northern Gulf/SE CONUS will interact will weak surface
troughing over the Western Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf.
This will create a long fetch of predominately East winds across
the coastal waters. While winds will generally stay low to
moderate...easterly swells will build from the ENE through the
weekend...with heights of 4 to 6 feet. It is possible that higher
swells will develop and that SCAs may be needed. Inverted mid
level troughing will bring increased convective activity for the
marine areas through the weekend as well.



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