Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 012058
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
258 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STAY MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
OUR STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING KEEPING MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WYOMING...IDAHO AND THE GREAT BASIN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S. HOOLEY


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INFUSED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE STILL LOOKS SET
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE EARLY OR MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS HAS DECREASED A BIT
SINCE MOST GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED ITS ARRIVAL INTO AND DEPARTURE OUT
OF SOUTHERN MT BY A SOLID 24 HOURS. WAVES OF THIS NATURE WHICH ARE
ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAN BE DIFFICULT TO MODEL THANKS TO
RELATIVELY WEAK BACKGROUND KINEMATICS AND AN INCREASED CHANCE THAT
CONVECTION WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THEIR EVOLUTION. TRUE TO THE LATTER
POINT...THE 06 UTC GFS APPEARED TO SUFFER FROM GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK
WITH ENHANCED AND POTENTIALLY OVERDONE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES 0F 0.75 INCHES OR GREATER...BUT THE LARGE-SCALE TOTALS FROM
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS LIKE THE 06 UTC GFS COULD VERY
WELL BE OVERDONE IN A CASE LIKE THIS.

NONETHELESS...WE SAW ENOUGH SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL
OF HIGHER POPS A BIT...INCREASE THEM A BIT FROM TUE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING...AND LINGER LOW POPS INTO WED. OTHERWISE...WE BLENDED
THE ONGOING FORECAST FIELDS TO THE 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO
STILL SHOW A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
CHANCE OF LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL LARGELY
DIE OFF BY 06 UTC...THEN REDEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MT AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL WY. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/091 063/092 064/091 064/081 061/082 060/088 060/089
    02/T    22/T    22/T    34/T    43/T    21/B    11/B
LVM 054/090 055/090 055/088 056/079 055/081 053/088 053/088
    22/T    23/T    23/T    44/T    42/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 058/093 060/094 060/093 063/084 060/084 058/090 058/091
    01/U    12/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    22/T    11/B
MLS 062/093 064/094 064/093 065/084 063/084 062/089 060/090
    00/U    12/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    32/T    11/U
4BQ 060/093 061/094 062/093 064/084 060/083 060/088 059/090
    01/U    12/T    22/T    34/T    43/T    32/T    11/U
BHK 057/090 059/090 059/089 059/082 059/083 056/085 055/086
    20/U    12/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    32/T    11/U
SHR 055/090 057/091 058/089 059/079 056/080 054/086 054/088
    11/B    22/T    22/T    44/T    43/T    22/T    12/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.