Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 290247
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
847 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Two distinct areas of convection in our CWA. One exiting slowly
from our CWA on the eastern border, and another over the south
central zones/Big Horns region extending northeastward to around
Lame Deer. Not much lightning in either area. A few showers
lingering over the western mountains which may continue overnight
thanks to instability in cyclonic flow aloft. Have adjusted PoP`s
for current trends and proggs. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Thu and Fri...

Scattered thunderstorms have developed and have mostly been
producing some decent rainfall. Additionally, some hail has likely
been produced with these storms. With the slightly higher dewpoints
across the area, winds there have not been as much of issue.
However some outflows have produced winds around 40 mph. Storms
have also been moving at a decent speed, so even with the
efficient rainfall production, any flood concerns should be
minimal. This convection will continue to move east through the
evening as a upper level low moves across northern Montana.

Going into tomorrow the area will be in northwest flow. This will
keep some scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area.
Shear and instability is much lower tomorrow, so not expecting
the any real organized convection. Friday should be dry as heights
begin to rise across the area. Temperatures both days will
generally be seasonable. Reimer

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...


Weak frontal passage over the weekend will bring slight chance
PoPs but nothing really significant. Other than that, the forecast
is pretty dry through the beginning of next week. Temperatures
should climb from the upper 80s this weekend to the mid 90s by
Monday and Tuesday. Conditions will steadily dry out as we head
into next week with the increasing temperatures and little rain.
Models still disagree on the timing of a front that moves through
some time early next week, and stronger winds aren`t in the
forecast at this time but this is something we will be watching
closely in subsequent updates. As we head into this more summer-
like pattern around the holiday weekend we begin to become more
concerned with wildfire starts. Walsh

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will gradually diminish
through the rest of the evening as they move eastward. There is a
chance of showers redeveloping late tonight over and near the
Absarokas/Beartooths and continuing into Thursday. Most locations
will see VFR conditions prevail despite showers. Wind gusts to 40
mph are possible near stronger activity. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/068 050/078 055/086 059/087 060/093 061/091 061/088
    15/T    21/B    11/U    21/B    00/U    10/U    10/U
LVM 049/065 042/074 046/083 050/084 051/088 052/087 051/085
    25/T    21/U    12/T    21/B    00/U    11/U    00/U
HDN 055/073 050/079 054/088 058/089 058/094 060/094 060/091
    24/T    21/B    11/U    21/B    00/U    00/U    10/U
MLS 057/076 051/077 055/088 060/090 062/095 064/093 064/090
    22/T    21/U    11/U    21/B    10/U    10/U    00/U
4BQ 055/076 050/075 052/086 058/088 059/091 061/092 062/089
    33/T    20/B    11/U    12/T    10/U    00/U    10/U
BHK 056/074 048/072 048/083 054/086 057/090 061/090 060/088
    62/T    21/B    11/U    12/T    21/U    00/U    10/U
SHR 052/065 047/072 048/083 053/085 053/089 054/088 056/087
    45/T    31/B    12/T    12/T    10/U    01/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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