Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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650
FXUS65 KBYZ 182052
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
252 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun...

Dry and quiet conditions across the area today as shortwave
ridging has been building back over the Northern Rockies. A dry
cold front will cross the area Saturday morning shifting winds to
the northwest. With high temperatures expected in the 80s to lower
90s, RH values down into the teens, and gusty northwest winds
along and behind the front, elevated fire weather conditions are
possible across our far east. Looks to be borderline Red Flag
Warning at this time across our far east with a few gusts to 25
mph. Have held off on any RFW issuance with this forecast package
and will continue to headline the frontal passage and gusty winds
in the FWF. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday
evening/night across southeast Montana as energy moves through
westerly flow aloft.

Westerly flow will continue over the area on Sunday with showers
and thunderstorms possible across the southeast during the
afternoon and evening. Highs will be slightly cooler than
Saturday with temperatures in the 80s for most locations.
Southeasterly surface winds look to transport better moisture and
instability into the area, so a strong storm or two is not out of
the question across SE Montana. STP

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

Monday eclipse viewing is looking a little more iffy across
southern Montana into northern Wyoming. Forecast shortwave trof
has become sharper in nature over the past 24 hours resulting in
stronger QG forcing and the potential for more mid and high level
cloud cover. May even see a few showers or thunderstorms as this
wave slides through the area. Current cloud cover stands at 30 to
60 percent for the peak of the eclipse, with highest values north
and lower the further south you go into Wyoming. Smoke will also
play a role in viewing ability as the cold front and mid level
flow will favor additional smoke advection into the area from the
west/northwest. Situation looks very similar to Thursday.
Temperatures look very pleasant with highs in the 75 to 85 degree
range down low and in the lower 60s up in the mountains. For those
heading up into the mountains early in the morning expect
temperatures in the 30s to start the day.

Pattern becomes very quiet for much of the week behind Mondays
weak system. Temperatures climb back into the mid 80s with dry
conditions and plenty of sun. Next chance for any meaningful
precipitation will be Friday into Saturday as a stronger upper low
takes a shot at our area from the west. Some models are putting
this system in a favorable position to drag Gulf moisture into the
area to interact with energy moving across the state. Many other
solutions drag this system too far north for more than isolated to
scattered showers/tstms. It could be a potent system so will keep
a close eye on it over the next week. Chambers

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR flight conditions will prevail tonight into Saturday morning.
Areas of smoke may occasionally reduce visibility in the western
valleys and foothills to around 5sm. Slant range visibility will
likely be reduced at KSHR, KBIL,and KLVM through tomorrow. Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/088 058/085 059/081 055/085 058/087 059/085 058/082
    00/U    10/U    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    12/T
LVM 051/088 048/085 049/082 048/087 049/088 051/084 050/080
    00/U    10/U    01/B    10/U    00/U    02/T    22/T
HDN 056/090 057/088 057/083 053/087 057/089 058/088 057/084
    00/U    10/U    11/B    10/U    00/U    01/U    12/T
MLS 060/090 059/086 059/083 055/086 058/089 060/088 059/084
    00/U    11/B    12/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    12/T
4BQ 057/091 057/089 058/083 053/084 057/089 058/086 057/084
    00/U    31/U    12/T    20/U    00/U    02/T    12/T
BHK 057/090 058/084 055/081 052/083 054/086 056/084 055/082
    00/U    22/W    22/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    12/T
SHR 054/088 052/087 053/080 050/084 052/086 053/084 051/081
    00/U    10/U    12/T    20/U    01/U    11/U    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 AM MDT Saturday FOR ZONE
      117.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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