Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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973
FXUS61 KCAR 270434
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1234 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to push east of the region
overnight. A cold front will cross the region later Thursday
through Thursday night. High pressure will build Friday and into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM update...Showers are now starting to spread into western
sections of our forecast area at this hour. Note that much of
the latest hi-res guidance indicates precipitation making it
further south than previously anticipated, with an area of
steadier showers progged to cross the Central Highlands through
the early morning hours. Have raised PoPs a bit to scattered
accordingly. Otherwise, the forecast remains mainly unchanged.

Previous Discussion...
By later in the night, some light shower activity could affect
northern and western zones. This precipitation will be with a
rather subtle warm front. The warm front will slowly work into
the area on Thursday with dew points creeping back into the
60s...a contrast to recent days with dew points in the 40s. This
added low level moisture and the warm front will spread a lot
of cloud cover over the area on Thursday that will keep highs in
the lower to mid 70s. The onshore flow along the coast means
highs there will be in the lower 60s with fog burning off, but
cloudiness through the day. The warm front will continue to
produce some shower activity Thursday morning. The big concern
will be later Thursday afternoon in northern zones with the
approach of the cold front and cold upper trough. While cloud
cover will limit SBCAPE, there is some concern that some later
afternoon clearing could generate more SBCAPE than currently
being advertised by model guidance. Other measures such as bulk
shear and mid-level lapse rates give the hint of some stronger
storms with the cold front. Have added enhanced wording for late
afternoon into the evening in northern zones. Slow storm
motions, a relatively deep warm cloud layer and increasing PWs
just ahead of the front also led to mention of some locally
heavier precipitation in the northern zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front is expected to approach from the west Thursday
Night then move across the region Friday Morning. This system
should result in scattered showers Thursday Night then skies are
expected to clear Friday Morning as high pressure builds in
behind the front. Low pressure is then expected to develop to
the south of New England Friday Night. The low will then move
eastward out into the Atlantic keeping most of the rain
associated with the low off-shore Saturday, although there is a
chance of some of the showers reaching coastal areas Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong high pressure is expected to remain over the region
Saturday Night and Sunday. A weak area of low pressure is
expected to move across northern areas Monday into early tuesday
resulting in a few showers while southern portions of the area
remain dry. Southern areas could get some showers Wednesday as
the front continues to move to the south.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR will be the predominant condition with the
exception of sea fog rolling into BHB and Machias later this
evening and into early Thursday morning. Otherwise, some MVFR
cigs will develop from BGR northward on Thursday morning.
Afternoon thunderstorms will develop Thursday afternoon...mostly
north of a line from GNR to HUL. Some storms could be strong.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Friday through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Fog is expected to move over the waters tonight into
Thursday with more humid air and a warm front. Winds will pick
up Thursday with a few gusts towards 20 kts. Seas will build
towards 3 feet.

SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM for wind grids. Winds are expected
to increase from the northeast Saturday, otherwise winds are
expected to be light. For Waves: The primary wave system
Saturday will be northeasterly wind wave as low pressure passes
to the southeast. For the remainder of the period longer period
southeasterly swell (1-2 feet/9 seconds) will dominate under
light wind conditions.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hastings/MCW
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...Hastings/MCW/Mignone
Marine...Hastings/MCW/Mignone



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