Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 210653
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
253 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE OFF THE
CAROLINIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND INTO THE
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES
NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXPECTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: MARGINAL SCA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SEAS ON THE COASTAL
WATERS 4 TO 5 FT.  THE SEAS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE SOME LATER THIS
MORNING AND WILL RE-EVALUATE AND POSSIBLY DROP THE ADVISORY WITH THE
NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.  ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...SATURDAY WAS THE 8TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE
DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6 DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB




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