Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 291643
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1243 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain over northern Maine today. An
weakening occluded front will cross the region later tonight
into Tuesday morning. Another frontal boundary is expected to
cross the region Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1240 PM Update: Showers have msly ended across our FA. Cldnss
has also shown sig breaks across Cntrl and Downeast ptns of the
FA which has had some lcl impacts on temps beyond the the prior
fcst of hi temps. Utilizing the current hrly temps, we tried to
factor rgnl differences of sunshine to in modifying fcst hi
temps for later this aftn.

Orgnl Disc: After some morning showers across far n and nw, the
CWA will become rain-free into the evening as the stalled
frontal boundary lifts back to the Maine-Canadian border. The
latest run of the RAP was matched up well w/this setup as high
pres wedges down from the ne. Satl imagery showed quite a bit of
cloudiness across the CWA this morning. RAP soundings showed
some potential for some breaks in the clouds early on, but as
the day progresses clouds should fill back in w/a sse wind. This
will lead to a rather cool day w/daytime temps topping out in
the upper 50s to lower 60s w/the warmer temps away from the
Bangor- Bar Harbor region.

Clouds will thicken up in earnest this evening from s to n as an
occluded front lifts across the region. There does appear to be
enough forcing in the mid levels to generate some shower activity
across the the sw and then the activity moves ne overnight. Decided
to go w/40% pops overnight into Tuesday morning w/QPF amounts around
0.10".

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cloudy conditions with highs in the lower 60s are anticipated
Tuesday with the risk of showers increasing later in the day
with the occluded front. Most of the shower activity with the
front will occur Tuesday night. There is just enough elevated
instability to include a slight chance of thunderstorms for
northern Aroostook County later Tuesday evening. For Wednesday,
a more southerly flow than previously expected will keep cooler
marine air streaming over most of the area and minimize surface
based convection except towards the western border on Wednesday
afternoon. Shower activity is expected through the day ahead of
an upper level shortwave. Some elevated convection is possible
Wednesday night and may have to include in the next forecast
package. With the passage of a cold front Wednesday night, drier
conditions and a westerly flow is expected for Thursday. There
may be some remaining shower activity, but it would be light and
widely scattered.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The persistent upper low that caused the unsettled weather
through the week will drift towards Maine during Friday and a
vigorous shortwave will move through the region Friday afternoon
and evening. The amount of shear and cold air advection aloft
raises concern for some severe storms with this shortwave. The
upper low will move over the state Saturday with more showery
activity and a cool northerly flow, but showers will tend to
decrease Sunday and Sunday night as the upper low finally moves
east into the Canadian Maritimes.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR for KBGR and KBHB this morning w/MVFR-VFR across
the northern terminals. Conditions across the northern terminals
will be VFR w/periods of MVFR cigs today into tonight. KBGR and
KBHB will see IFR to improve to MVFR but will start dropping
back to IFR later tonight w/some fog possible.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday will start IFR towards BGR and BHB, but VFR
further north. All sites will be VFR by afternoon. On Tuesday
night, conditions will deteriorate to IFR cigs by later in the
night into Wednesday morning. Cigs will only improve to MVFR
before returning to IFR Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
VFR conditions are forecast by later Thursday morning through
Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No headlines expected this term. SSE winds will pick
up some later this afternoon into the evening at speeds of 10
to 15 kts. The winds will drop back to around 10 kts or less by
midnight. Seas look like they will remain 2 to 3 ft through
tonight.

SHORT TERM: Fog will be a factor starting later Tuesday night
and continuing into Thursday morning. There is a chance of some
higher swell starting Friday and continuing into Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...VJN/MCW
Marine...VJN/MCW



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