Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 271123
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
623 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
620 AM UPDATE: VISUAL OBS AND SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLRG HAS
ADVCD FASTER ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST ME ERLY THIS MORN THAN PREV
THOUGHT...SO WE REDUCED CLD CVR OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA THIS
MORN.

OTHERWISE...WE INCLUDE LATEST HRLY 5-6 AM OBSVD TEMPS AND UPDATE
ERLY MORN LOWS WITH TEMPS AT LCTNS EXCEEDING PRIOR LOW TEMPS WITH
THESE LATEST OBS...MOSTLY OVR FAR NW ME... WHERE CLRG SKIES HAS
RESULTED IN AN DEEPER ARCTIC SFC BASE INVSN. WE THEN MODIFIED FCST
HRLY TEMPS INTO THIS AFTN TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS FROM LAST
UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: STRONG AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDGE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR FA TDY THRU SAT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE ANY LEFT OVR CLDNSS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS THIS MORN BY AFTN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...SINCE ENOUGH PRES GRAD...LLVL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALF
WILL BE PRESENT FOR FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR LOW LYING...SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY AREAS TNGT...MEANING
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE TNGT OVR THESE AREAS...BUT
MAINTAINING A BREEZE ON HILLSIDES. EMPHASIS ON THIS FCST UPDATE
WAS PLACED ON TRRN DETAILS DRIVEN BY DAY/NIGHT AND VLY/HIER TRRN
WIND/WIND GUST REGIMES SET UP BY AN W TO E RIDGE AXIS PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE IMPACT ON FCST HIGH TEMPS TDY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THU`S
HI TEMPS...SINCE FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS TDY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YSTDY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEG WARMER THAN FRI
WITH FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEG C WARMER THAN FRI. LOW
TEMPS TNGT WILL SHOW EXTRA WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN COLDER LOW LYING
LCTNS AND HILLTOP LCTNS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP TO 10 TO 15 DEG F
WARMER DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 5 MPH OR MORE KEEPING THE BL TO
MIXED FOR ANY SFC INVSN TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME LOW 30S ON THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL ENERGIZE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN QUICKLY IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT PATTERN OF
HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. HAVE SPECIFIED CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST
AND TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE DOWN EAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY.
SINCE THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
EXPECT STRONG WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TUESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW-MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT SINCE
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...IT WILL DRAW
SUFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO DRIZZLE...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. SNOWFALL
WILL BE WET AND HEAVY COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT WITH LOW SNOW-WATER RATIOS. HAVE
NOT ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER
SURFACE AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST SINCE THE
LAST RAIN EVENT ON JAN 19. THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO THE DEEP
FREEZE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SECONDARY WAVE COULD DEVELOP
ON THE COLD FRONT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT ONLY MERITS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT NGT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING IFR IN SNOW
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING A FZG SPY ADV STILL XPCTD INTO
MID MORN. AFTWRDS...LGT FZG SPY XPCTD WITH A POSSIBILITY OF MORE
MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING AN AN ADDITIONAL SPY ADV LATE TNGT INTO SAT
MORN. OTHERWISE...NO WIND/WV HDLNS NEEDED TDY THRU SAT. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WITH LATEST BUOY OBS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MARKED DEVIATION FROM THE GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-END GALE IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY. ANOTHER SCA
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND
ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
MONTHS ON RECORD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...VJN



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