Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 290204
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1004 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
955 PM UPDATE...
ALL SHOWERS (AND STORMS) HAVE DIED OFF, AND WE ARE LEFT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE IS A STALLED BOUNDARY RUNNING
FROM NEAR HOULTON TO MILLINOCKET TO DOVER FOXCROFT, WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, AND
LOWER DEWPOINTS AND A LIGHT WEST BREEZE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE JUICIER AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, EXCEPT WIDESPREAD FOG RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. LOWERED
TEMPS A BIT TONIGHT IN THE NORTH WOODS WHERE WITH THE DRIER AIR
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS, TEMPS ARE FALLING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...
FRONTAL BNDRY LOOKS TO STALL OUT DRG ITS TREK SOUTH AND WL LKLY
SLOWLY DISSIPATE DRG THE DAY WED. HWVR IT WL LKLY SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AS ANOTHER WV DROPS THRU ON NW
FLOW. SKIES WL BE MSUNNY ACRS NORTH AND EAST ZONES RMVD FM THE WV
ROTATING ITS WAY THRU SWRN MAINE. THIS WL RESULT IN NEAR TO ABV
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ON WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WHICH
MEANS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TIME FOR HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL LIE OVER WESTERN AREAS,
WITH CAPES PROGGED TO REACH UP TO 1200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS
WELL OVERDONE WITH ITS 1800+ J/KG SBCAPE. SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP THE
LOWER LEVELS MORE STABLE ACROSS EASTERN MAINE, SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER TO CHANCE ONLY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
SURFACE INSTABILITY, WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO HAVE MID-LEVEL LIS IN THE 6-7 C/KM RANGE ADDING TO THE
FORCING. GIVEN SHEAR AROUND 30 KT, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL BOTH POSSIBLE. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BRING PWATS APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES, SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND A MUGGY 80 DEGREES,
WITH THE COAST STAYING IN THE 70S.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER DAYTIME HEATING AND THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY AROUND DAYBREAK. AS SUCH, IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SEE ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS WILL DROP
THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING, SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER RESTRICTED TO ISOLATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH STRONG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BRING A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. EACH WAVE WILL TAP WARM AND MOIST AIR
ACROSS THE FCST AREA RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAYS 4 THRU 7 PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR KHUL NORTH TONIGHT. A BIT NERVOUS THAT FOG COULD
IMPACT KHUL, BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER, IFR
OR WORSE KBHB AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG AT KBGR, BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE THERE. GENERALLY VFR WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CAN`T RULE
OUT A FEW STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL 00Z THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE 03Z-12Z IN
FOG, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THESE LOCALIZED CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY, AND THEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/FOISY
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...FARRAR/FOISY/HASTINGS
MARINE...FARRAR/FOISY/HASTINGS


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