Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 020009
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
709 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER QUEBEC THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE WIND AND HRLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO MATCH
UP W/THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS EVENING. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN PLACE, BUT W/WINDS DROPPING OFF, ADVISORIES COULD BE DROPPED
EARLY. THIS WILL BE VISITED AGAIN W/THE UPDATE LATER THIS EVENING.

HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC ARE MOVING E AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT AND THEN
SPREAD NORTHWARD BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO CAP THE
OVERNIGHT MINS SOME ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

ANOTHER MAJOR WINTER STORM IS APPROACHING AND THIS ONE, SIMILAR
TO THE OTHER TWO, WILL BRING THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO THE DOWNEAST
REGION AS IT TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE DOWNEAST
REGION AROUND MID MORNING MONDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON MONDAY WITH SNOW OF MODERATE INTENSITY REACHING THE
NORTH LATE MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO REASONABLE
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW TAKING THE LOW CENTER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE LATE MONDAY THEN ON ACROSS WESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR
DOWNEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH WITH
WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW WILL
THEN END LATER MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...WITH 4 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST AREAS...6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AREAS AND 10 TO 16 INCHES DOWNEAST. DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF
WRAP AROUND SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS COULD POSSIBLY REACH WARNING
LEVELS ACROSS NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
     CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH MORE SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE
LONG TERM...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 12Z GFS ENDS THE SNOW FIRST
THING THURSDAY MORNING AS IT TAKES THE PRIMARY LOW QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE 12Z ECMWF IN CONTRAST KEEPS THE CHANCE
FOR SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR DOWN EAST MAINE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT
DEVELOPS ANOTHER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC AND MOVES IT
NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STAYED WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
WHICH KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST WILL LOWER TO IFR IN SNOW
DURING THE MID MORNING MONDAY AND REMAIN IFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL LOWER
TO IFR DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON MONDAY AND REMAIN IFR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS LATER WEDNESDAY.
IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN SNOW. VFR
RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE WATERS. A GALE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED
BEGINNING MIDDAY MONDAY FOR INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
WILL BE UP MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED IN SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A FREEZING
SPRAY ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ001>004-010.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ005-006-011-031-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HEWITT/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/HEWITT/NORCROSS


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