Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 230434

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1234 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Low pressure will lift north of the area overnight. The low will
remain to our north Sunday into Monday as cold gusty winds circulate
into our region behind the low.


1230 AM update...Deepening low pressure is currently spinning over
the upper St John Valley and will push into Canada over the next
several hours. We continue to see gusty winds at this hour,
including gusts of 30-35 kt here at KCAR. A look at wind profiles
show this should abate a bit as we head toward daybreak, with
gusts of 20-30 kt common. Have made some adjustments to the wind
forecast to match these trends. Shower activity has waned a bit
over the past couple of hours with the bulk of the showers now
over the North Woods, north and west of Route 11. Have backed off
on pops to go with scattered showers over all but the
aforementioned areas. Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape and
no other significant changes were needed.

Previous discussion...Strong wind gusts and much colder.

The latest sfc analysis showed low pres lifting n across the
coast w/an area of rain moving into the downeast area. Satl WV
imagery showed area of enhancement pulling through Nova Scotia and
another smaller area associated w/a vorticity max off the southern
New England coast. This vorticity max will lift across the region
this evening into tonight w/an area of stronger winds as picked up
by the mesoscale guidance including the NAM12, HRRR and RAP.
Bufkit showed gust potential UP TO 40+ MPH across mainly across
the downeast and eastern side of the CWA early tonight w/the
disturbance. Sounding profiles also hinted at convective potential
w/elevated CAPE of 200-400 joules and swi down below 0. PWATS of
1.30" this evening coupled w/0-6km shear will aid to the
potential. Best window for any convection will be this evening and
as it looks right now across the central and easter portions of
the CWA. One thing to note is that the trend for convection was
down from the 06 & 12z runs. Decided to keep the mention of tstms
in there this evening and will issue a Special Weather Statement
to address the winds and heavy rainfall. Temps will start out warm
but drop back by early Sunday morning.

Winds are forecast to crank back up Sunday morning and continue
into early Sunday evening as low pres intensifies as it moves into
Quebec. CAA on the way w/momentum transfer showing gust potential
to 50 mph especially across the higher terrain terrain and open
areas. The only thing holding back full gust potential is the
cloud expected for Sunday. Any substantial breaks in the clouds
would allow for winds allow to mix down. 12Z run of the guidance
was a bit weaker than the previous guidance in regards to the wind
field. After coordination w/GYX, decided to hold off on any wind
headline. Later shifts can assess this situation further. Will
beef up wording in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Rain showers
will move back across the area on Sunday. Temps will be dropping
back into the mid and upper 30s n and west where some snow could
mix in w/the rain showers. Further e and s, early high temps of
low to mid 40s w/temps dropping off by the afternoon.


A large area of low pressure will be located in eastern Quebec
Sunday night as strong winds continue to wrap around the low
pulling cold air across the area. The cold advection will continue
to result in deep mixing making for gusty winds. Skies will remain
mostly cloudy across the far north with partial clearing likely
Downeast as some drier air circulates in beneath the low. The
storm will remain in Eastern Quebec on Monday as some moisture
pivoting around the upper trough begins to back south into our
area. This will bring some rain and snow showers to northern areas
while Downeast remains partly cloudy. Moisture will continue
circulating back into the region, mainly across the north, Monday
night as boundary layer temperatures become cold enough for snow
across much of the region. Some light accumulation of wet snow is
possible, especially over the higher elevations to the west. Snow
and rain showers will continue into Tuesday across the north and
west while Downeast becomes mostly cloudy as the surface low
weakens and backs down to the south a bit.


Moisture pooled in the upper trough will bring a mostly cloudy
and chilly day on Wednesday as low pressure both surface and aloft
weakens and moves off to the east. Upper level ridging and
Canadian high pressure will build across the region on Thursday
bringing a return of sunshine and tranquil weather. However, the
dry weather may be brief as another shortwave trough approaches
Thursday night into Friday with a chance of rain.


NEAR TERM: IFR expected at all terminals this evening. Expect
restrictions to rise to MVFR at BGR and BHB after 09z then
progressing north during the afternoon hours. Big story will be
the winds with gusts to between 30-35kts in the afternoon from the
SW. A very brief period of LLWS also expected for a time tonight.

SHORT TERM: Strong gusty west southwesterly winds will affect all
sites Sunday night into Monday. Some stratocumulus will limit
conditions to MVFR over the north Sunday night and Monday with VFR
conditions expected Downeast. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected
north Monday night and Tuesday in continued low clouds with VFR to
MVFR conditions Downeast. MVFR conditions downeast and MVFR to IFR
conditions in low clouds over the north can be expected Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Conditions should return to VFR across the
area later Wednesday night into Thursday.


NEAR TERM: Decided to put the intra coastal area in a Gale Warning
as gusts to 35 kts are expected tonight and another round expected
for Sunday. Increased sustained winds on Sunday to 30 kts w/gusts
closing in on 40 kts especially over the outer zones. Southerly
swell out there attm w/11 period seconds and heights of 6-7 ft.
Expected seas to build later tonight and especially on Sunday
w/the increasing winds. Since, wind field will be offshore, not
expected any coastal flood or erosion problems.

SHORT TERM: A gale warning will likely be needed Sunday night
into Monday. Winds may diminish to SCA over the intracoastal
waters later Monday. An SCA will likely be needed Tuesday. Winds
will gradually diminish Tuesday night into Wednesday night then be
light on Thursday as high pressure builds over.


MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ052.
     Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ050-051.



Near Term...Hastings/Hewitt
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Marine...Hastings/Hewitt/Bloomer is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.