Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 210106
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
806 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
IN THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AND DISSIPATE MONDAY. STRONG LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL WEST OF THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
KEEP GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE COULD INCREASE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 10 TO 15 NORTH...TO AROUND 20 TO THE LOWER 20S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH MID 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY. STRATUS THAT ADVECTED INTO THE AREA WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. SOME FLURRIES ARE
STILL POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. NEAR THE COAST A WEAK TROUGH AND BIT DEEPER LAYER OF
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY WITH ANY
ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND 30 TO 35 DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH
TUESDAY BUT WILL WEAKEN DO TO LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH A
MAJOR UPPER TROUGH REMAINING WELL TO THE WEST. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS
APPROACH AND USE 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POP AND QPF.
WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL USE THE BURLINGTON SKY
TOOL FOR CLOUD COVER. SUPER BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT AND GMOS FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
PRODUCING A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE THAT IS EXPECT
TO LAST INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN ACROSS THE
COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST EARLY CHRISTMAS EVE WHICH WILL TURN TO
RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO
INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS... THE SUPER BLEND IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF. ALSO 11 OUT OF 12 GFS ENSEMBLE
PERTURBATIONS ARE SIMILAR. WILL REPLACE THE SUPER BLEND
TEMPERATURE... WHICH LOOKS TOO WARM... WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN INTENSE LOW
PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WIND
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. ALSO WITH HEAVY SNOW COVER IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECT... HYDRO ISSUES
MAY RESULT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CEILINGS...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN
RAIN/SNOW AT TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: HAVE
USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO
THE WAVE WATCH III. EXPECT WAVES AROUND 3 FEET MONDAY AND TUESDAY
RESULTING FROM BLEND OF 2 FOOT WIND WAVE AND 1 FOOT INCOMING
SWELL. AS SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WAVES
WILL BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET/10-12 SECONDS BY EARLY THURSDAY.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR APPROXIMATELY 25TH/0530Z...
(11.76 FT MLLW) AND 25TH/1800Z...(12.73 FT MLLW). LATEST WAVE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LONG SOUTHEAST FETCH WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
10 TO 14 FEET/ 10-12 SECONDS THROUGH THIS TIDAL PERIOD. THIS COULD
RESULT IN MINOR OVERTOPPING ALONG EXPOSED COASTLINE. WAVE MODEL
HAS BACKED OFF ON WAVE HEIGHTS A LITTLE DURING LAST 24 HOURS DUE
TO SHORTER FETCH DURATION ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BUT WITH SPRING
TIDE...WAVE HEIGHTS AND LONG PERIODS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR MINOR
OVERTOPPING ISSUES. ALSO WILL STRONG ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED AND
ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE SOME FLOODING ISSUES STILL POSSIBLE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIGNONE



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