Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 032001
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
401 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH LOWER
HUMIDITY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CLEAR
SKIES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MANY AREAS TONIGHT. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPERATURE WILL INITIALIZE WITH THE SUPER BLEND BUT WILL LOWER
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FRIDAY NIGHT AS RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO CREST
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVING UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY TRIGGER SOME
SHWRS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA SUN NIGHT. NOT SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AS OF NOW, SO KEPT IT SHWRS. LOOKS LIKE
MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT DID
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS FOR FAR NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF SFC FEATURES JUST TO THE NORTH. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
TSTMS TUESDAY PM AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THEN PUSH THROUGH THE NEXT COOL FRONT NEXT THURS, WITH MORE
SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS.

OVERALL, GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF, AND CANADIAN IS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN - BUT THE CANADIAN ALSO SPINS UP A
COASTAL/TROPICAL LOW LATE IN ITS RUN, SO IT WASN`T STRONGLY
CONSIDERED. IN GENERAL ANY EDITS TO POPS AND PRECIP TIMING WERE
MADE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE WINDS WILL INITIALLY START OUT
FROM THE WEST...THEN VEER NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
EAST/NORTHEAST...AND THEN STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT. WINDS COULD
BECOME GUSTY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASE
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WAVES SHOULD REMAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...MAINLY FROM 1 TO 3 FT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS.
EXPECT LIGHT DIMINISHING WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THEN WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH. FOR WAVES: WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY EXPECT PRIMARY
WAVE SYSTEM TO BE SOUTHEAST LONG PERIOD SWELL (AROUND 1 FOOT/11
SECONDS). AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WIND WAVE (AROUND 2 FEET/5 SECONDS) WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BERDES
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...BERDES/MIGNONE
MARINE...BERDES/MIGNONE



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