Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 010902
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
502 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH
TODAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
IN THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXTEND FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...
HAVING FORMED IN THE CLEARING BEHIND THE WEAKENING RAINBAND
CURRENTLY DISSIPATING FROM THE WYOMING VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED INTO THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...
AND REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS THROUGH 13Z.

SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF THE
COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING EVER SO SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STEEPER LAPSE RATES INVOF DEPARTING UPPER TROF
MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT BY AND
LARGE EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIE WITH THE
DISSIPATION OF THE RAINBAND FALLING APART OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES.

MORNING DENSE FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS
WITHI HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC RIDGING RETURN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
VALLEY FOG. MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...A MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT AUTUMN
DAY IS IN STORE AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND SFC RIDGING
PERSISTS FROM LARGE EASTERN CANADIAN SFC HIGH EXTENDING INTO
EASTERN PA. MAXES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...
AND REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE
INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY
A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH
STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER
LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND
UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED-06Z THU...COSPA/HRRR SHOWS BAND OF LGT-MOD RAIN PIVOTING
SLOWLY NWD AND WEAKENING NEAR IPT-RDG LINE THRU 09Z. RAIN SHOULD
END AT LNS BY 07Z. FLGT CATS ARE HIGHLY VRBL AS OF 06Z RANGING
FROM BLW AIRFIELDS MINS TO VFR. EXPECT SITES THAT ARE CURRENTLY
IFR OR BELOW TO REMAIN THERE THRU DAYBREAK...WHILE OTHER SITES
TREND TO LOWER FLGT CATS GIVEN WEAK SFC FLOW...TIGHT DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS AND RECENT RAFL. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR IS
ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER
INTO THE AFTN/EVE. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY/CIGS TNGT INTO EARLY THURS AND WILL ADDRESS
THIS CONCERN WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...

THU...LOW CIGS LIKELY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FUELING A MOIST MARITIME FLOW E OF THE
APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

SUN...MVFR CIGS PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-
010>012-017>019-024>028-034>036-045-056-063-064.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL


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