Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 220309
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1009 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An extended period of mild weather with well above normal
temperatures will continue through the end of this week. A weak
cool front will push through the state late today and tonight.
A stronger cold front is expected for Friday into Saturday,
followed by a shot of colder air with gusty westerly winds over
the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Late evening regional radar mosiac continues to show fractured
frontal shower band sagging southward across north central and
central PA and progressing eastward from western PA this
evening...with isolated sprinkles entering the Laurel Highlands
along the MD border.

With the northern and southern streams disengaging from one
another, higher rain chances overnight are split to the north
and south of central PA. Latest HRRR still starts to fill
shower activity in during the pre dawn hours across the central
mountains, but overall very light QPF expected with the front
overnight into Wednesday morning with most areas seeing a trace
to a few hundreths of an inch at most.

We have yet another very mild night in store with temperatures
averaging 15-25 deg above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The weak cold front will either stall or fall apart right over
the local area later tonight and Wed. Model soundings suggest a
fair amount of cloudiness hanging in over the state, but we will
probably not see more than a stray shower in a few spots.

Sunshine, mixed with varying amounts of clouds will be the
rule. Considering the mild start to the day, and GEFS mean 850
mb temps of 7-8C, we should see max temps easily reaching the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Gradually milder temperatures will return for the extended
period as no genuine cold air push is in sight. High
temperatures in general will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal
with min temperatures mainly above freezing.

Deepening Swrly flow for the second half of the week will cause
temps to rebound to well above normal (and perhaps near record
levels in some locations).

The overall, large-scale pattern becomes more amplified late in
the week as a system over the central plains deepens and lifts
into the Great Lakes. Clouds will increase Thursday and Friday
with warm front lifting through, and bringing increasing rain
chances heading into the weekend, followed by a shot of
colder/windy conditions Saturday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak and weakening cool front will push through the state
tonight. A stronger cold front is expected for Friday into
Saturday.

Widespread VFR will continue tonight for most of central PA
even as mid-clouds thicken and lower ahead of a weakening front
approaching from the Midwest. The exception will be across the
NW 1/3 of the airspace where MVFR ceilings will become likely
along with a period of light rain showers late this evening
into early Wednesday morning.

Sub VFR conditions will be most likely the first half of Wed
over the higher elevations from the Laurels to the northern
mountains, with conditions improving back to VFR during the
afternoon.

Outlook...

Thu-Fri...Mainly VFR with possible rain showers and brief
restrictions.

Sat...LLWS. Strong FROPA with sub-VFR likely in moderate rain
showers. Isolated TS psbl. Post-frontal NW wind gusts 25-35kts
psbl with snow showers NW 1/3 Saturday night into early Sunday.

Sun...Sub-VFR Laurels up into the Northern Mountains along with
scattered lake enhanced snow showers. Brisk NW winds.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner
AVIATION...RXR



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