Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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951
FXUS61 KCTP 140620
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
120 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG BUT QUICKLY-MOVING SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN FORM TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STATE ON MONDAY. A WINTRY MIX AND PERHAPS PLAIN RAIN
WILL OCCUR AFTER AN INITIAL PERIOD OF SNOW. THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER SHOULD PASS OVER EASTERN PA ON TUESDAY. LATER IN THE
WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ALOFT WITH MUCH WARMER
AIR FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
FALLING INVERSION HGTS UPON APPROACH OF SFC HIGH CAUSING REMAINING LAKE
EFFECT SHSN TO DWINDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAVORED SNOWBELT OF NW WARREN CO BTWN 06Z-09Z
THEN PROBABLY ONLY FLURRIES LEFT BY DAWN ACROSS THE NW. 06Z TEMPS
ALREADY BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND EXPECT SEVERAL MORE DEG OF
COOLING AS CLOUDS BREAK AND WINDS DIE DOWN. CURRENT WCHILLS
RUNNING FROM ARND 20BLW ACROSS THE N MTNS TO BTWN 5-10BLW IN THE
SOUTH. DON/T EXPECT MUCH CHANGE TO THESE NUMBERS THRU 8AM...AS
FALLING TEMPS SHOULD BE BALANCED BY DIMINISHING WIND. WCHILL
ADVY/WARN REMAIN IN PLACE THRU 16Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WINDS SLACKEN AND TEMPS ONLY AS MILD AS
SAT...BUT SHOULD FEEL BETTER.

THE HIGH MOVES RAPIDLY TO THE EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES OFF FAST SUNDAY
EVENING. BUT RETURN FLOW COULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO
SLOWLY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

GOING TO BE INTERESTING MONDAY-TUESDAY WEATHER!

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT
 WEEK.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR MONDAY...TUE FRAME.

MAIN THING WAS TO INSERT SOME ZR INTO THE GRIDS AFTER 00Z
TUE...THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING. BASED ON WPC GRAPHICS.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME.

DID NOT DO A LOT WITH SNOW AMTS SO FAR. MAY ADJUST MORE LATER.

EC MAY BE TO FAR WEST...BUT EITHER WAY...EXPECT SOME SNOW TO
PILE UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PA BY LATE MONDAY AFT...ABOUT
1 TO 2 INCHES...AS SYSTEM LIFTS NE FAST...AND WARM ADVECTION
WAITS FOR NO MAN.

MORE DETAIL BELOW.

CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW COULD ARRIVE IN SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS MONDAY MORNING AS INDICATED IN SOME ENSEMBLE FORECASTS.

BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LGT
SNOW ARRIVING MONDAY...AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE COAST AND MILDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERRUNS RETREATING ARCTIC AIR MASS. HOWEVER...THE
BIGGER CONCERN INVOLVES DIGGING UPPER TROF OVR THE MISS VALLEY AND
ASSOC SFC LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP THE APPALACHIANS. MDL SPREAD
CONTINUES TO NARROW...WITH MOST RUNS TRACKING SFC LOW ACROSS
EASTERN PA TUESDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR RAIN ACROSS
EASTERN PA AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PA. GIVEN INHERENT MDL
UNCERTAINTIES THIS FAR OUT...WILL MAINTAIN RAIN/SNOW IN THE FCST
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA MON NIGHT-TUES. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON CONVERGING MDL SOLUTIONS.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING ACROSS
EASTERN PA...GIVEN RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT POTENTIAL. LATEST MDL
ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS USING NAEFS SUGGESTS MINOR FLOODING IS A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BY TUES. WPC ALSO HAS
HIGHLIGHTED SE PA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY.

EXPECT BULK OF PCPN TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE TUE AM.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WED. DID UP POPS SOME ACROSS THE WEST.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED.

NOT A BAD DAY FOR THU OR FRI...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

PERHAPS A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY LATER NEXT WEEK...AS
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WEST OF PA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR HAS BROUGHT COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO
THE REGION. SNOW SQUALLS ARE COMMON IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH
IMPACTS ON KJST AND KBFD. A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL PA HAS
BROUGHT ONLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO UNV...SO WILL LEAVE A BRIEF
TEMPO THROUGH 08Z...AS MODELS HAVE MOST SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE NW
MTNS FADING BY 09Z. AS THE THERMAL PROFILE IS ADIABATICALLY
NEUTRAL EXPECT ANY GUSTY WINDS ALOFT TO FILTER TO THE SURFACE. SO
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
GOOD GUST SPREADS TOO WHICH AFFECT TAKEOFF/LANDINGS. GUSTS OVER
30KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
 BFD AND JST WILL SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND
09Z AS THE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AND DIMINISH. THIS WILL END THE GUSTS AND CEASE MOST
BLOWING SNOW...ALSO CUTTING OFF MOST LAKE EFFECT AND TOPOGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENTS. THERE SHOULD THEN BE IMPROVED CONDITIONS.
THINGS SHOULD BE MUCH NICER SUNDAY...THOUGH A TAD COLD WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY DRIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT SO THE PERIOD OF NICE
WEATHER WITH VFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION MOVE IN FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. SNOW AND
ASSORTED WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT FLYING MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED MAINLY VFR.

MON...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP WITH SNOW DEVELOPING.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...SNOW LIKELY WRN HALF OF PENN...WITH RAIN
AND/OR SNOW IN THE SE. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS SET IN. LLWS POSS
SE.

WED...ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH KEEPING RESTRICTIONS IN
PLACE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW...ESP OVER THE WEST.

THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-
037-041-042.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN



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