Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 020330
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1130 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME
MID TO HIGH CLOUD REMNANTS STREAMING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER OHIO.

UPPER RIDGE IS BEING IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF WEAK WRN OH CUTOFF
AND ITS ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST PA. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WV/MD PANHANDLE
WHICH MAY SNEAK INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDED SLGT CHC
MENTIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF SOMERSET AND BEDFORD COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR AND FAIR.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS
IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS LIKELY TO RECUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN
THE OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FOG HAS ALREADY CRASHED THE VIZ AT BRADFORD. ELSEWHERE A HAZY
WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN PROGRESS. THE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS AS PATCHY
VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...



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