Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 180216
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
916 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region through Thursday,
bringing fair skies but cold temperatures. Temperatures will
moderate to near normal Friday, then climb above normal over
the upcoming weekend with mainly dry weather continuing.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
GOES16 showing a shallow layer of orographic stratocu clinging
to the spine of the Alleghenies this evening. Model soundings
show inversion heights falling further overnight, as ridge axis
builds over the state. Thus, expect clearing skies over the
western mountains and continued clear skies elsewhere overnight.

Warming temps aloft and a westerly breeze will likely balance
radiational cooling in most spots with temps nearly steady or
slowing falling over much of the area. However, suspect some
protected valley locations that decouple will see temps falling
to near zero due to the fresh snow cover and clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Large scale subsidence between upper low passing off the east
coast and shortwave diving across the Grt Lks will provide fair
weather across central Pa Thursday. Mostly sunny skies expected
for the bulk of the forecast area. However, a surge of increasing
low level moisture ahead of approaching shortwave will likely
cause increasing cloudiness across the northwest mountains by
afternoon.

Model soundings indicating a well mixed boundary layer to 925mb
Thursday afternoon. Mixing down ensemble mean temps of around -10C
from this layer should translate to max temps from the low 20s
over the highest terrain of the northwest, to the low 30s across
the Lower Susq Valley. Bufkit soundings indicate Thursday will
become quite breezy, with west winds gusting to between
25-30kts across the southwest portion of the forecast area and
slightly lower winds over the northeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure moving off the southeast coast late in the week
will bring mild and dry weather to the area late in the week.

A deep low will swing a cold front across the area late Monday
and early Tuesday next week. Did slow the front down some, based
on new models.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
There continues to be some lingering MVFR over my western
higher elevation terminals with even some very light snow
causing visibilities under 2 miles at JST. Drier air will limit
the extent of the low clouds moving out of the mountains, but
these high elevation sites may be stubborn to improve despite an
overall fair weather pattern.

It will be breezy with gusts in the 10-20 mph range.


Outlook...

Thu...Mainly VFR. Breezy.

Fri-Sun...Mainly VFR.

Mon...Reduced conditions with rain showers associated with an
approaching cold front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The threat of ice jamming is diminishing. Dry and colder
weather into mid week will form additional ice as stream flows
and open channels decrease. Another warm up is expected by the
end of the week into the weekend with rain to accompany a
frontal system early next week. Dewpoints not fcst to be as
high as last Friday evening, so expecting less rain and runoff.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...La Corte/Gartner
HYDROLOGY...


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