Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 252019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
319 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Satellite and observations show mid and high clouds for much of the
forecast area this afternoon. Most of them are in the southeast part
of the area, but a few, mostly thin, clouds continue to drift across
the entire area. Radar has only a few returns that are probably
mostly returns from mid level clouds out there.

There is southwest flow across the area through the period. There
are a couple of upper level waves that move into the area. There is
one exiting the area this afternoon and expect there to be dry
conditions this afternoon and into the evening hours. The next upper
level wave starts to affect the area tonight. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop to the southwest late this afternoon and into
the evening hours. These thunderstorms are expected to lift to the
northeast through the evening and overnight hours. Only expect them
to get into the southern part of the forecast area before morning.
This is the area that had plenty of precipitation yesterday and last
night. Since there has been a little time and the rivers have
started to come down and are back within their banks, have opted not
to go with any flood watch at this time. Also, not expecting
excessive rainfall from the thunderstorms tonight.

Already by Friday, there are some differences in the models. A few
of them spread the precipitation across the area during the day on
Friday, while others indicate there will be a little break during
the day. Have tried to go with something in between. Have kept the
idea of some of the precipitation spreading to the north. Have lower
PoPs in the morning with higher PoPs in the afternoon. By afternoon
there is also a chance for some of the precipitation to the west
during the day spreading into the west later in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

The best model agreement is during the evening Friday night. Have
kept the highest PoPs during this period. Thunderstorms from the
west should be moving through the area. The question is how soon
will the precipitation come to an end. The GFS and NAM both move
precipitation out or mostly out of the area by Saturday morning.
Since there is better chance during the evening, lowered the PoPs
during the overnight hours a little bit. Expect some precipitation
to linger into Saturday morning, especially in the east.

Models bring another upper wave to the area Saturday night. There is
another chance for some thunderstorms, with the best chances in the
southern part of the forecast area.

For the period Sunday through Thursday, the southwest flow continues
across the area, with several upper level waves that move through
the area. Timing these waves will continue to be a challenge and
there will be small chances on and off through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Expect high clouds to be in and out through the afternoon and
through the overnight hours. Friday morning there could be some
mid level clouds moving into the area. Still expect VFR ceilings.
There is a small chance for some thunderstorms Friday morning, but
it is small enough that have left it out for now.


.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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