Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 200532
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1232 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL WILL ALLOW A
MODEST 30-40 KT MID-LEVEL JET TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO IS SLOWLY
DEEPENING...WHICH WILL COAX AN ATTACHED STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY NORTH LATER TODAY AND
INTO THE NIGHT. A 40-45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT FARTHER EAST WITH THE AXIS OF
THE JET...MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR CWA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF THE
NOSE BEING AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. I MAY
HAVE TO NUDGE OUR CHANCES OF RAIN A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE RESTING INSIDE THE CWA WITH A POSITIVE TILT.
BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LEVEL IS CURRENTLY RUNNING 30-40 KTS...BUT
SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT..RUNNING FROM ABOUT 25 KTS IN OUR
SOUTHWEST TO 30-35 KTS IN OUR NORTHEAST. MUCAPES WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF OF SHEAR AND
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL GIVE US SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME
STRONG STORMS CONTAINING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN OUR NORTHERN
CWA AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO THE HWO. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SUPPORT
DIES OUT.

HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION COULD KICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS
MAKE ITS WAY JUST INTO OUR WESTERN CWA BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.
ONCE AGAIN...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH SOME
MODEST SHEAR...TO GIVE US A STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORM.

KEPT TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS AS THE GENERAL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH BASICALLY A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
TROUGHING TO THE WEST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. WE ARE GOING TO BE
SOMEWHAT STUCK IN THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. FORTUNATELY...WE WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO SOME MOISTURE DURING
THIS PATTERN WITH SEVERAL DAYS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING DOWN BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE
WE COULD SEE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED.

WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER
THE OUTLOOK AREA. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE THAT
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS
THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE CWA. CHANCES WILL BEGIN
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ
SLOWLY DECREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. I DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS IN THE
FORECAST BETWEEN BASICALLY SUNRISE AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT ENTIRELY HIGH ON THIS OUTCOME. THAT BEING
SAID...WE COULD HAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HOLD
TOGETHER. NEVERTHELESS...CHANCES WILL PICK BACK UP THAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY.

SIMILARLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A LLJ WILL PUSH IN
OVER THE CWA INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE THESE TWO NIGHTS AS WELL. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR RAINFALL THESE THREE NIGHTS AS DECENT
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. THE BULK SHEAR DURING THIS
TIME IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT 0-1 KM SHEAR IS DECENT AND
INSTABILITY FOR THE MOST PART WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000 - 3000 J/KG OF
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL GET STORMS TO
INITIATE...AND THE LLJ SHOULD TAKE OVER FROM THERE GETTING THESE
STORMS TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
PERIODS OF THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE THE BEST
SHOT AT SEEING ANY RAINFALL. THAT BEING SAID...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE MAIN THREAT DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL BE WIND...AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED STORMS THAT
PRODUCE SOME HAIL.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AS THESE TWO DAYS LOOK THE WEAKEST VARIABLE-WISE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OF COURSE...THIS IS GETTING FAR INTO THE
EXTENDED SO THINGS CAN CHANGE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE DURING
THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AROUND SUNSET MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA. THERE IS
AN OFF CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATE THIS EVENING.
WILL SEE IF THE CHANCE OF THEM GETTING INTO THE TERMINALS
INCREASES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...JCB


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