Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 281109
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
609 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FCST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TODAY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN
TSTM POTENTIAL. WHEN/WHERE/IF THEY DEVELOP ARE PROBLEMS...ALONG
WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.

CONSIDERABLE ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE DAY SHIFT...AND
POSSIBLY BEFORE THIS NIGHT SHIFT IS OVER.

ALOFT: 00Z ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWED A TROF OVER THE WRN
USA. THIS TROF WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE E THRU TONIGHT AND WILL BE
LOCATED JUST W OF THE FCST AREA BY DAYBREAK FRI. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROFS WERE EMBEDDED AND THIS MAKES TSTM POTENTIAL MUCH LESS CLEAR.

SURFACE: THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONT WERE DISSIPATING OVER KS.
THE REGION WILL ESSENTIALLY BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THRU TONIGHT.
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPR TROF WILL DEEPEN THE
LEE-SIDE TROF TODAY. THIS TROF WILL ADVANCE E INTO NEB/KS TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COOL FRONT THAT WILL DROP INTO THE NRN
PLAINS.

EARLY THIS MORNING: WE ARE MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TO
ERUPT IN LLJ-DRIVEN WAA.

6 HR QPF VERIFICATION ENDING 06Z HAS BEEN ABYSMAL...WHICH ONLY
FURTHERS THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 03Z SREF QPF
AND ITS QPF PROBABILITIES SUGGESTS IT MAY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
WHAT MIGHT TRANSPIRE THIS MORNING.

TSTMS HAVE BEEN ON-GOING OVER CNTRL/SRN KS OVERNIGHT AND WERE
MOVING INTO ERN KS AT 08Z. NEW TSTMS HAVE ERUPTED OVER SW KS. SREF
SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN ALL S AND E OF THE FCST AREA AND
OUR FCST MAY BE TOO HIGH ON POPS THIS MORNING. IF NOTHING DEVELOPS
BY THE END OF THIS SHIFT...WE WILL BE MAKING SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES
TO LOWER POPS.

TODAY: CLOUDS WILL BE DETERMINED BY TSTM DEVELOP...AND AT 08Z THE
TSTMS NEAR DDC ARE SENDING A CIRROSTRATUS CANOPY RAPIDLY N INTO
THE FCST AREA. SO EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THRU
MIDDAY... AND AREAS FROM THE TRI-CITIES S AND E MAY BE CLOUD MOST
OF THE DAY.

WHATEVER TSTMS DEVELOP THIS MORNING SHOULD BE E OF THE FCST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...PROBABLY OVER ERN NEB/KS. POPS WERE LOWERED THIS
AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THE FCST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN THAT ACTIVITY TO
THE E AND NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO THE W WITHIN THE LEE TROF.

FCST TEMPS COULD BE TOO WARM BY SEVERAL DEGS WHERE CLOUD COVER
REMAINS THICK/OPAQUE THE LONGEST.

TONIGHT: WHATEVER TSTMS DEVELOP TO THE W SHOULD SURVIVE
PROPAGATE/MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA DUE TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE
LEE TROF. TEMPS IN THE MID-UPR 70S WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S
AND MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 DEG C/KM WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG OVER THE WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA. SO SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY THAT MOVES IN EARLY THIS EVENING COULD BE SVR OVER
DAWSON/GOSPER/ FURNAS COUNTIES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE 20-25
KTS...SUGGESTIVE OF MULTICELL CONVECTIVE MODE.

THE THREAT FOR SVR WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE AS INSTABILITY
DIMINISHES WITH SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE FORECAST LOOKS WET TO START...DRIES OUT OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH CHCS FOR PCPN RETURNING
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING STARTING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH POISED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONTAL
POSITIONS WITH THE GFS/SREF FASTER WITH SFC FEATURES THAN THE NAM.
HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT AND WILL GO WITH A BLEND FOR THE EARLY
MORNING FEATURES. THE FRONT IS SLOW TO DEPART OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES
IN THE AFTN WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME CHC FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...IN LINE WITH THE SPC DAY TWO
MARGINAL RISK AREA. INSTABILITY AVERAGES AROUND 1500 J/KG IN OUR
SE BUT NAM SUGGESTS THIS MAY REACH 2000 J/KG OR SO. SHEAR REMAINS
UNDER 30KTS AND NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER
BUT WILL HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A STRONG STORM IN
OUR SOUTHEAST CWA ESPECIALLY IF FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWS FURTHER.
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
FRIDAY EVENING WHILE THE UPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE PLAINS...THEN
PCPN WINDS DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY AS MOISTURE IS SCOURED SOUTH WITH
THE FRONT AND MUCH DRIER ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING CHILLY WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONE AND TO AROUND 10C IN THE
SOUTH AS A 1030 MB SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH...WHICH IS TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND MODELS DIFFER ON
WHETHER OR NOT CLEARING WILL REACH OUR NORTHERN ZONES PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHILLY MORNING LOWS MAINLY IN THE
40S FOR SATURDAY.

OVER THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY. SATURDAY IS LOOKING
COOL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH THEN IN RETURN
FLOW/WAA BY SUNDAY TEMPS WILL TREND UP AGAIN. HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AND THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BREAKS DOWN WITH THE FLOW TRANSITIONING SOUTHWESTERLY
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL SET UP A FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AND DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM
ENSEMBLES/EXTENDED INIT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A MEANDERING
TROUGH/LOW IN THE VCNTY OF THE GULF STATES OR SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT
FOR NOW MODELS KEEP THIS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRI MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TODAY: VFR CIRROSTRATUS CIGS AROUND 20K FT. A FEW CU WILL DVLP
AROUND 4K THIS AFTERNOON. S-SSE WINDS 10-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW

THU EVE: PROBABLY VFR TO START...BUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF TSTMS IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z. SE WINDS 10-15 KTS. WIND SHIFT WITH COOL
FRONAL PASSAGE AROUND 09Z. CONFIDENCE: LOW

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB


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