Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 291654
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1154 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL...THE BASIC FORECAST EXPECTATIONS FOR TODAY REMAIN ON
TRACK. THE NARROW BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICALLY-INDUCED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO THUNDER THAT BISECTED THE
CWA FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LARGELY
FADED AWAY TO A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES...IF EVEN THAT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW LUCKY AREAS RECEIVED OVER 0.10 OF RAIN FROM THIS BAND (HIGHEST
KNOWN MEASURED TOTAL WITHIN OUR CWA WAS 0.19 IN NORTHWEST VALLEY
COUNTY PER NERAIN)...THE VAST MAJORITY OF PLACES THAT EVEN SAW
RAIN MEASURED AROUND 0.05 OR LESS. LOOKING FORWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...LINGERED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN SEVERAL
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...AND ALTHOUGH CUT BACK
THE AREA ALSO KEPT A SLIVER OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A WILSONVILLE NEB-NATOMA
KS LINE...BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE TOO MUCH AND WILL RE- EVALUATE FOR
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMP-WISE...THE
SUNNY SOUTHWEST COUNTIES HAVE WARMED UP FAIRLY FAST...WHILE MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST HAVE REMAINED COOLER THUS FAR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHER THAN TACKING 1 DEGREE ONTO
HIGHS IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...SAW NO COMPELLING REASON TO
ALTER PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS AT ALL AT THIS POINT...THUS STILL
AIMING FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 77-80
RANGE...AND GENERALLY 81-87 SOUTHWEST. OBVIOUSLY IN THOSE PLACES
WHERE SKY COVER LEANS MORE TOWARD MOSTLY CLOUDY THE REST OF THE
DAY...THESE VALUES COULD EASILY END UP BEING SLIGHTLY OVERDONE.
JUST TO KEEP TODAYS COOLER TEMPS IN PERSPECTIVE THOUGH...ITS
ACTUALLY WARMER TODAY THAN IT WAS EXACTLY 1 YEAR TODAY ON JULY
29TH...WHEN BOTH GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS ESTABLISHED RECORD COOL
HIGHS FOR THE DATE OF ONLY 66 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/SKY/WX. THIS BROKEN BAND OF SHWRS
HAS BEEN SINKING S AROUND 20 KTS. POPS/WX WERE MODIFIED TO ACCT
FOR THIS. THE 06Z NAM CONTS THE TREND OF DROPPING THE ZONE OF FGEN
S INTO KS THRU THE DAY. SO CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER N-CNTRL KS
AND GENERALLY DECREASE OVER S-CNTRL NEB...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80.
WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN`T BE RULED OUT...THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHWRS HAS BEEN WANING. SO THUNDER WAS PULLED FROM
THE FCST FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SPOTTY SHWRS THRU TONIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO ERASE THE DEFICITS
FROM THIS DRIER THAN NORMAL JULY BUT WE CONT TO SEE SIGNS OF A WRN
USA TROF BY MID AUG...

ALOFT: NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FCST AREA THRU TONIGHT...WITH
A RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND A TROF IN THE E. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF OVER AZ. THIS TROF WILL CREST THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE NRN MEX SUBTROPICAL HIGH...MOVING INTO CO
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE: A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR WAS IN PLACE. HIGH PRES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE MO/MS RIVER VALLEYS THRU TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT ESE SFC FLOW.

NOW: A NW-SE FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN BISECTED THE
FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHWRS WILL CONT ROUGHLY
FROM NEAR ORD TO HEBRON. CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER.

THE MODELS THE PAST 24 HRS PERFORMED VERY VERY WELL WITH THIS
FGEN SIGNAL.

TODAY: VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. OUTSIDE THE FGEN CLOUDS/SHWRS
P/CLOUDY TO EVEN M/SUNNY. OTHERWISE...M/CLOUDY UNDER THAT BAND.
THE FGEN AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE S INTO KS
TODAY ...WITH MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING MOVING INTO S-CNTRL NEB.
THIS BAND OF SHWRS SHOULD GRADUALLY SINK INTO KS AND OUT OF NEB.
MODELS SUGGEST THE SHWR ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OR TEMPORARILY END
THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL. ONE POTENTIAL
WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS HIGHS OVER N-CNTRL KS WHERE WE CURRENTLY
HAVE 82-85F. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED...THESE TEMPS COULD
BE TOO HIGH.

TONIGHT: SHWRS SHOULD REDEVELOP/EXPAND AS THE FGEN CIRCULATION
BECOMES SUPERIMPOSED BY QG FORCING/DEEPER ASCENT FROM THE
APPROACHING TROF. THE WRF SUGGESTS A BAND OF SHWRS WILL REDEVELOP
FROM ROUGHLY LEXINGTON-RED CLOUD-MANKATO KS AND THEN SINK S AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE LOCATIONS ARE NOT GOSPEL. THE MODELS MAY HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA...BUT A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT LOCATION.

CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER. IF MAX PARCEL HEIGHT
OCCURS...CB TOPS WOULD ONLY BE AROUND 20K FT. THAT IS BARELY TALL
ENOUGH FOR ICE IN-CLOUD.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ABOUT 7F COOLER THAN NORMAL.

POPS WERE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z NAM WITH SOME 15Z/21Z SREF
AND 00Z HI-RES WRF BLENDED IN AS WELL. GIVEN THE HI-RES WRF MODELS
ARE PERFORMING EXTREMELY WELL...THEY WERE GIVEN HIGHER WEIGHTS
TODAY-TONIGHT.

QPF WAS A 30-30-40 BLEND OF THE 12Z/18Z/00Z MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THEN CROSS CHECKED WITH 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" AND .10"
IN 12 HRS.

FCST CONFIDENCE TODAY-TONIGHT: MEDIUM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A TROUGH
IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN...ALTHOUGH THE REX BLOCK
WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE ITS CHARACTERISTICS OVER CANADA AS THE HUDSON
BAY VORTEX FINALLY STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH...LEAVING THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE WITH INFLUENCES FARTHER WEST OVER CANADA AND A RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF THE POLAR VORTEX OVER THE ENTIRE HUDSON BAY BY
LATE WEEK. THAT WILL NOT CHANGE THINGS MUCH IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE STANDING FIRM AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TOUTING A HIGH INFLUENCE...WE WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY...
WITH DEW POINTS STAYING RELATIVELY LOW. WE WILL REMAIN MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT WILL BECOME MORE NORTH AS WE
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN RIDGE AS COMPARED TO THE EASTERN
TROUGH.

NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT AND I WILL RELY
HIGHLY ON ENSEMBLE MEANS....WITH RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

FOR PRECIPITATION...MOST NUMERICAL MODELS END PRECIPITATION IN
OUR CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...
WHICH BRINGS IN SOME MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SMALL
PERTURBATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW...THERE IS SO MUCH DRY AIR THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
SEEMS IMPROBABLE PAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOR THE MOST PART...AND
WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SOME SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS SNEAKS IN A SMALL PERTURBATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL GIVE ANOTHER SMALL SHOT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA.

WENT WITH BCCONSRAW FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MEDIUM TERM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WENT MORE TOWARD ENSEMBLES
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TODAY: A BAND OF BKN SHWRS EXTENDED FROM TIF-BBW-GRI-HJH AT 1130Z.
THE THREAT FOR SCT SHWRS SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z AT GRI AND PROBABLY
15Z AT EAR. VFR MID-LEVEL CEILINGS 6-10K FT WILL GRADUALLY DROP S
AFTER 18Z WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS CEILINGS INVADING FROM THE S AS ONE
OR MORE TSTM CLUSTERS WILL BE ON-GOING OVER KS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BECOME CALM.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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