Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 212337
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
537 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

...Major Winter Storm is at Hand and Wherever You are This Evening
We Recommend You be Prepared to Stay There thru at least 3 PM
Tomorrow...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 444 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Plan to update this product multiple times on this shift as
things evolve.

88D is now in precip mode (VCP 212) to better follow newly
developing precip elements.

IR satellite loop shows blossoming mid-lvl clds over the CWA the
past 3 hrs...indicative of a persistent lift. Clds tops are slowly
cooling. 88D shows increasing increasing reflectivity as well W of
Hwy 183. The regional mosaic shows the primary band from GLD-OGA-
VTN.

The latest NAM Nest and HRRR cont to suggest this band will inch
slowly E but remain W of Hwy 183 thru midnight. Most areas E of
Hwy 183 will see nothing more than drzl before midnight as the
dry slot wraps around the strengthening low.

TIF/LBF/MCK are all reporting mdt snow (1/2 mi vsby).

Since temps were too warm for frzg drzl...heavy snow and blizzard
conds are the main focus. This fcstr recommends you should be
where you can be safe and comfortable by nightfall...and plan to
stay there thru 3 PM tomorrow from the Tri-Cities N and W...and
thru 6 PM tomorrow eve S and E of the Tri-Cities.

Ham radio operators are activated to provide reports. Thank you!

More later...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

The latest numerical model tracks of 850 mb and surface lows suggest
that our axis of heaviest snow may have been too far northwest and
that at least a further slight shift south/southeast is warranted. I
have nudged the Blizzard Warning further southeast as a result, but
the cutoff of snow to the southeast will be quite sharp, so I do not
want to go too much farther south at this time. The wind gusts to 45
mph look like a pretty sure bet late tonight into Monday morning,
considering continued projected 925 mb and 850 mb winds. The slowing
down of this system also suggests that the track may wind up being
farther south as well. The later arrival of snowfall still looks
warranted and will continue this trend. I have shifted the axis of
heaviest snow south, especially what occurs after 12Z Monday. The
trends of the 850 mb low track would also suggest that I still may
not be far enough south with heaviest snowfall axis past 12Z Monday
as the low looks like it may head more in an east northeast
direction. With the low swinging through south central Kansas into
the Kansas City area, this would also indicated a southward shift to
the track.

This winter system will be quite different as the snow looks much
heavier and denser than of snows past, and we will not have an
arctic intrusion as systems past either.

The departure of the snow will be later as well, and may very well
be pushing 00Z Tuesday before it completely departs the CWA. We may
even need to extend eastward areas of the WSW past 3 pm.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Unlike recent events, there is not a lot of cold air behind this
system with seasonable temperatures expected. I did not pay terribly
much attention to weather after the upcoming blizzard, but weather
generally looks seasonable and mainly dry for most of the rest of
the forecast, with perhaps a cool-down toward the very end of the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 537 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Significant Weather: IFR -DZ/-RA will decay further to +SN

Expect temporary closure of runways/taxiways Mon for plowing ops.

Tonight: IFR with persistent -DZ/-RA. There will be a chg to SN
but the exact time at the terminals is highly uncertain. Current
indications are the 1/4SM +SN BLSN will not move in until after
09Z. N winds cont to increase to 30G40KT by dawn. Confidence:
High on clds/winds...low on vsby/wx.

Mon: IFR in blizzard conds 1/4SM +SN BLSN until roughly 18Z...but
high winds will maintain MVFR V IFR vsbys in BLSN. NNW winds
gusting up to 40 kts (possibly higher) will result in extensive
drifting which will make it tough to keep runways/taxiways clear
even after SN ends. Confidence: High

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Blizzard Warning until 3 PM CST Monday for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>086.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST Monday for NEZ087.

KS...Blizzard Warning until 3 PM CST Monday for KSZ005-006-017.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST Monday for KSZ007-018-019.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Kelley
SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Kelley


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