Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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703
FXUS63 KGID 200455
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1055 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 141 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Main threat in the short-term is near-critical fire weather
conditions. See the fire weather section below for more
information.

Other than that, this is a pretty quiet forecast period. A upper
level trough will continue to move eastward, leaving more zonal
flow in its wake. This will translate to southwesterly flow at the
surface, mostly clear skies, and high temperatures in the 50s and
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 141 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Another shortwave trough will push a cold front through the area
Tuesday morning. Behind this front winds will gust to around 35
mph and high temperatures will be stuck in the 40s for most of the
area...a big change from Monday. The GFS is also showing some
very light QPF in the cold-air advection behind the front, but I
don`t think it would be anything more than sprinkles by the time
it makes it to central Nebraska or Kansas.

This cold shot will be relatively short-lived, though. The
shortwave will quickly progress to the east and temperatures on
Wednesday should reach the upper 40s to 50s. Even milder
conditions are expected on Thanksgiving and Black Friday when high
temperatures reach the 60s!

Another trough is expected to move through Friday night into
Saturday. This will cool us back to more seasonable temperatures,
but the threat for any precipitation still looks minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday)
Issued at 1054 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. In mixing
during the afternoon, wind gusts near 20kts are possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 141 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Mixing today has been just a bit deeper than was expected. This
is evidenced by wind gusts of 20 to 25 MPH and relative humidity
(RH) values falling into the upper teens in a few locations as of
1:45PM. Parts of Phillips, Rooks, Osborne, and Smith Counties in
KS may briefly see RH and winds reach critical levels, but I
don`t believe that it will be sustained for the 3-hour timeframe
to necessitate a warning.

Tomorrow, humidity will be even lower than today, with sub-20% RH
along and west of a line from Lexington, NE to Osborne, KS. That
said, winds should be even more marginal than they are
today...especially in KS. Because of this, the only areas that
should reach near-critical fire conditions will be along and west
of Highway 183 in Nebraska.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Fay
FIRE WEATHER...Mangels



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