Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 251745
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1245 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AS RIDGING EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SRN PLAINS DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHILE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
SPIN OVER ONTARIO AND JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA INTO KS...AND
HIGHER PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NW. ITS A
PRETTY WEAKLY FORCED FRONT...AND WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
LIGHT...VARIABLE AT TIMES BUT GENERALLY HAVE A NWRLY COMPONENT.  THE
CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
COOL MORE COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO...WITH 3 AM OBS SHOWING TEMPS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 40 TO NEAR 50. COULD SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NEB INTO KS...BUT
MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD PRIMARILY STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA.

LOOKING TO TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE IN THE FORECAST...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING TO BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.  FLOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM NWRLY CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO MORE SWRLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA
THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ON THE WEST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE MT/SD/ND/WY BORDER SLIDING S/SE THROUGH THE NE/SD/IA AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND BY SUNRISE SUNDAY IS MOVING THROUGH ERN PORTIONS OF
MN/IA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY...THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT WINDS LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH. MODELS NOT
SHOWING A NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER /ESP IN THE NERN COUNTIES/...BUT
HIGHS FOR MANY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOWER 80S IN THE SW.

AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN LIES WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG. NOT LOOKING AT A SITUATION WHERE WE HAVE COMPLETELY CALM
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 MPH FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWEST INTO THE
AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK WELL INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S.
INHERITED A MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE CWA FOR LATE
TONIGHT...MADE NO CHANGES TO THAT...THOUGH NOT ALL MODELS/GUIDANCE
AGREE WITH HOW MUCH IMPACT THERE WILL BE...THANKS IN PART TO THOSE
WINDS NOT GOING CALM. THE MODELS THAT ARE SHOWING GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR ITS OCCURRENCE SUGGEST THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE. DAY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER
INSERTION OF A MENTION OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE
HWO...DEPENDING ON HOW THE 12Z RUN OF MODELS TREND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

BY LATE-OCTOBER STANDARDS...THERE REALLY SHOULDN/T BE MUCH FOR
MOST FOLKS TO COMPLAIN ABOUT OVER THESE 6 DAYS AS A WHOLE. AS IT
CURRENTLY STANDS...THE GREAT MAJORITY OF THIS TIME FRAME IS
LOOKING DRY (INCLUDING HALLOWEEN)...AND EVEN THE ONE 24 HOUR
PERIOD THAT DOES CONTAIN A MENTION OF RAIN (MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT)
HINGES ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION
SETUP...AND IN FACT MOST OF THE CWA MAY BE LUCKY TO SEE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES OUT OF IT.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...BY FAR THE WARMEST DAY OF THESE 6 IS LOOKING TO
BE RIGHT OFF THE BAT SUNDAY...WHICH IN THEORY COULD BE THE LAST
DAY OF 80S THIS YEAR FOR PARTS OF THE CWA. BUT EVEN AFTER
SUNDAY...ITS NOT LIKE SOME KIND OF MAJOR/NEWSWORTHY COOL DOWN
ARRIVES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS HIGHS SETTLE INTO A PATTERN OF
GENERALLY A MID-50S TO MID-UPPER 60S RANGE ON MOST OF THESE
DAYS...WHICH IS ACTUALLY RIGHT ON PAR WITH SEASONAL
NORMALS/AVERAGES. ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF CHANGE OVER COMING
DAYS...THE CURRENT CANDIDATE FOR THE COOLEST DAY OF THE 6 IS
FRIDAY (HALLOWEEN)...WITH HIGHS PRELIMINARILY AIMED INTO THE MID-
50S TO AROUND 60 RANGE.

AS FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER "EVENTS" THAT MAY BECOME WORTHY OF
INCLUSION IN FUTURE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS (HWOGID)...REALLY
THE ONLY ONE OF NOTE MAY BE RIGHT AWAY SUNDAY MORNING IF IN FACT
IMPACTFUL FOG CARRIES OVER FROM THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD COVERED
ABOVE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW BIG OF A DEAL THIS FOG MIGHT
BE...WILL KEEP OUT OF THE HWO PRODUCT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...LIKELY
THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD IS MONDAY...BUT WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS CURRENTLY LOOKING TO AVERAGE UNDER 25 MPH THIS ISN/T ALL
THAT CONCERNING EITHER. LASTLY...ALTHOUGH VEGETATION IS DRYING OUT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THERE ARE ALSO NO OBVIOUS OVERLAPS OF AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

GETTING INTO GREATER METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL AND TAKING IT IN 24-48
HOUR BLOCKS...

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS 24 HOURS REMAINS VOID OF ANY
PRECIP MENTION CWA-WIDE AND CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN THIS
SCENARIO HOLDING THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYTIME AND EVENING
HOURS...BUT SUPPOSE THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA MAY NEED WATCHED JUST
IN CASE A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER MIGHT TRY SNEAKING IN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE THE NUMBER ONE FORECAST ISSUE SUNDAY
PROBABLY INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT FOG BECOMES A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
THROUGH THE MID- LATE MORNING HOURS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE LATEST VISIBILITY FORECAST PRODUCTS FROM THE
SREF/NAM ARE TRENDING MORE CONCERNING REGARDING DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN HOW FICKLE OF A BUSINESS FOG FORECASTING CAN
BE (ESPECIALLY 24+ HOURS OUT) WOULD RATHER NOT GET TOO CARRIED
AWAY YET...AND INSTEAD LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS HOPEFULLY GET A
BETTER HANDLE. FOR NOW...WILL AT LEAST MAINTAIN A GENERAL "AREAS
OF FOG" MENTION IN THE FORECAST CWA-WIDE THROUGH 16Z/11AM...AS ANY
FOG THAT FORMS COULD BE PRETTY SLOW TO LIFT ESPECIALLY NEAR-NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. AS FOR THE LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL
PICTURE...BROAD QUASI ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST MODEST-LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL BE APPROACHING SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGES OF AN ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...INITIALLY
SOUTHERLY BREEZES SUNDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION MORE
WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGES
OF A MODESTLY- STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. TEMP-
WISE...SUNDAY HIGHS ARE TRICKY AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY
(OR SLOWLY) STRATUS/FOG BURNS OFF. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST HERE...RUNNING WITH THE GENERAL SCENARIO THAT ANY LOW
CLOUDS WOULD POTENTIALLY HANG ON LONGEST IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
CWA AND THUS KEPT HIGHS DOWN IN THE MID-70S HERE WHILE WARMING
MUCH OF THE WEST AND FAR SOUTH INTO THE LOW-80S...WHICH MAY NOT
EVEN BE QUITE WARM ENOUGH. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAS ACTUALLY
ONE OF THE BIGGER TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD...AS LOWS WERE KNOCKED DOWN 3-5
DEGREES...PUTTING MOST PLACES INTO THE LOW 50S.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED THIS IS THE ONLY
24-HOUR PERIOD TO CONTAIN A MENTION OF PRECIP...AND BARRING
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ITS LOOKING QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE. THE GENERAL
MID-UPPER LEVEL SCENARIO INVOLVES THE GRADUAL EASTWARD PASSAGE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY
LOCALLY...KEPT THE FORECAST AS A MIX OF ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NON-MEASURABLE
SPRINKLES. THAT BEING SAID...ITS STILL A BIT SOON TO PINPOINT A
"GUARANTEED DRY" PORTION OF THIS 24 HOURS SO THUS HAVE CONTINUED
TO BROAD-BRUSH THIS ENTIRE TIME WITH THESE MEAGER PRECIP-CHANCES.
LIKELY THE BIGGER STORY MONDAY WILL THE DAYTIME PASSAGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE NOTICEABLE IN THE
FORM OF 15-25 MPH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN SLOWLY- FALLING TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MEANING HIGHS WILL
PROBABLY BE REACHED AROUND MID-DAY MOST AREAS. MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO HIGHS...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM LOW 60S FAR NORTH TO LOW
70S SOUTH.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS 48-HOUR BLOCK BRINGS A
RETURN TO FAIRLY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH MAY NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR WED NIGHT AS THE ECMWF
AT LEAST GENERATES SOME LIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL ONLY SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. OTHERWISE...TUESDAY
APPEARS TO FEATURE LIGHTER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAN MONDAY...WITH
WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY THEN SWITCHING AROUND TO OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. IN TURN...HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND FROM ONLY
NEAR-60 TUESDAY TO MID-UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY DAYTIME...THE FINAL 36 HOURS OF THE LONG
TERM CONTINUES TO FEATURE A HIGHER-THAN-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN DRY
WEATHER FOR BEING 5-6 DAYS AWAY...AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS PAINT A
SIMILAR GENERAL SCENARIO OF BUILDING A LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER
RIDGE OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY THESE MODELS VARY ON THE
AMPLITUDE/STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL
WIND/TEMPERATURE DETAILS. AT LEAST FOR NOW...HIGH TEMPS ARE AIMED
INTO THE LOW-MID 60S TUESDAY BUT COOLER 50S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT FRIDAY HIGHS COULD
ACTUALLY TREND A BIT COOLER THAN THIS...AND THUS ITS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT PARTS OF THE CWA COULD BE HELD DOWN IN THE
40S...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW THIS ISN/T THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. MOISTURE INCREASES ON THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WITH THE LIGHT WINDS SHORT TERM MODELS
ARE INDICATING THERE COULD BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT. VISIBILITY
IS EXPECTED TO DROP TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB



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