Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 270559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1259 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING UPPER CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL RAIN AND THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF EVEN
SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES SUCH AS NANCE AND POLK COUNTIES. OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IN SOME AREAS SUCH AS FURNAS COUNTY
NEBRASKA AND ROOKS COUNTY KANSAS. SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES. THE
RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET AS WE
LOSE DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE RIDING DOWN INTO
THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
INDICATE GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY AND MAYBE TOO LATE TO DO MUCH FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS. OUR FAR WEST SHOULD WARM UP RATHER DECENTLY INTO THE
50S...BUT HAVE COOLED THE TRI CITIES AND EASTERN ZONES INTO THE
40S DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUTSIDE OF TRACE AMOUNTS TO MAYBE
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN. AM MORE CONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER.
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW DUE TO BOTH THE WARM
GROUND AND SFC AIR TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

ONCE AGAIN...NOT AS MUCH TIME TO HIT THE "FINER DETAILS" AND
POTENTIAL CAVEATS OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD AS WOULD NORMALLY
LIKE...SO WILL FOCUS ON THE PRIMARY POINTS:

1) PRECIPITATION-WISE: THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
DRY WITH LIMITED RISK FOR ESPECIALLY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION.
THAT BEING SAID...MAINTAINED EITHER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY IN FAR EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY EVENING...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND A LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER MEASURABLE PRECIP
POTENTIAL SHOW ITS HAND IN THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME (ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT) BUT FOR NOW FELT
SPRINKLE-WORDING CONTINUED TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GOING
DRY AND MENTIONING A FORMAL CHANCE OF RAIN. THE BOTTOM LINE
THOUGH: BARRING NOTABLE CHANGES...DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR A "SOAKER" DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

2) TEMPERATURE-WISE: ALTHOUGH NOT AS MARKEDLY AS WHAT THE SHORT
TERM FORECASTER DID FOR FRIDAY...UNFORTUNATELY FOR MOST FOLKS WAS
ALSO WAS INCLINED TO TRIM SATURDAY HIGHS A TOUCH AND POTENTIALLY
NOT ENOUGH (FOR NOW LOWERED GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES). FOR THE
SUNDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO
HIGHS/LOWS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MORE SPECIFICALLY NOW:
ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE A WARM-UP...NOW HAVE HIGHS
ONLY AIMED FROM UPPER 50S EAST TO LOW-MID 70S EXTREME WEST (AND
LOW-MID 60S TRI-CITIES). THEN SUNDAY-THURSDAY CURRENTLY ARE AIMED
SOLIDLY WELL INTO THE 60S OR 70S...WITH THE WARMEST 70S SLATED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DURING WHICH POSSIBLY A FEW 80S COULD EVEN
SHOW UP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

3) POTENTIAL HAZARDS: THERE IS THE VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY (WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY MORE THAN THE ECMWF)...HOWEVER IT IS FAR FAR TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. OF LIKELY GREATER
CONCERN OVERALL WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW POTENTIAL AFTERNOONS OF AT
LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL (IF NOT OUTRIGHT-CRITICAL) FIRE DANGER THANKS
TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT/BELOW 20-25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS
AT/ABOVE 20 MPH. FOR THE TIME BEING...PROBABLY THE NEAREST-TERM
DAY WITH POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY BEHIND
A FAIRLY DECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. BECAUSE THIS IS WITHIN 72 HOURS
NOW...HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FIRE DANGER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID).

ENDING WITH A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE LARGE-SCALE METEOROLOGICAL
DETAILS:

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER RIDGING
DOMINATES FOR THE MOST PART...THE LINGERING RAIN CHANCE IN EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY EVENING IS THE "LAST GASP" OF FORCING FROM THE TROUGH
DEPARTING EASTWARD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS EXCEPT THE ECMWF KEEP
THE CWA LARGELY DRY...WANTED TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN A SPRINKLE
MENTION IN SOME AREAS AS MODELS MOVE A PROGRESSIVE/LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT: BROAD AND DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WITH LITTLE FORCING A DRY
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: ECMWF KEEPS IT DRY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY PER THE GFS ALONG A
PASSING FRONT. TONS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AS JET INDUCED
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WE COULD GET SOME LIGHT SHOWER AND PERHAPS
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN


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