Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 051731
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1231 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY AND WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING 1-3 DEGREES BELOW PREVIOUS FORECAST SO
LOWERED THE TEMPS BASED ON THESE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS.

930 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. MODELS SHOW
T850 TO CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS TODAY EVEN WITH SOME BREAKS
OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION...BUT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

600 AM...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET AND SATELLITE TRENDS.


PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE DELMARVA TO
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH A SERIES OF WAVES RIDING ALONG IT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD SHIELD WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY SINK FURTHER SOUTHWARD
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST. MUCH COLDER
THEN YESTERDAY AS COLD AIR DEEPENS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
READINGS A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF
A STRAY FLURRY...IT WILL BE A DRY DAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING AND SEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO NEAR THE COAST
TO 15 BELOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. ON FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND CONTINUED
COLD UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
15 TO 25 DEGREES...OR A GOOD 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
DATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE DURING THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY BETWEEN
15 AND 25 DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. READINGS SHOULD BE AROUND
40 DEGREES FOR HIGHS IN PORTLAND THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

A WEEK FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH
THE FREEZING LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD
ALLOW READINGS TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS
ON SUNDAY AS WELL. THIS IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

00Z MODEL SUITE STILL SHOWING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE OTHERS IN THAT IT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED.

LACK OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARM UP EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD 40S. AN OFFSHORE
FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE WARMEST LOCATIONS TO THE
COASTLINE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS...LOWERING CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY LOWERING VISIBILITIES
IN SOME SNOW SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH CURRENT HEADLINE EXTENDED
ACCORDINGLY. COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADV ISSUED
FOR TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...QUICK MOVING...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEMS WILL CROSS
THE WATERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
REACHING SCA WIND THRESHOLDS OF GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL OCCUR EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KISTNER



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