Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 021047 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
647 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL HOLD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MOIST ELY FLOW CONTINUES SHOWERS ACROSS SRN ZONES FOR
ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE FINALLY MOVING EWD. BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE I HAVE INCREASED POP THRU
15Z. COOLER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BLEED IN FROM THE N...AND CLOUD
TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM...SO EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE THE GREATEST
EXTENT OF SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INVERTED SFC TROF CONTINUES TO THRUST PCPN
BACK TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME HIGH PRES IS BUILDING TO THE N...AND ADVECTING DRY AIR SWD
THRU NRN ME. THIS IS KEEPING SHOWERS CONFINED MAINLY TO SRN NH AND
SWRN ME. CONVERGENCE WILL GRADUALLY SINK SWD THIS MORNING...AND
PCPN WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA WITH IT. DRY ADVECTION WILL HELP TO
CLEAR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS...BUT PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN THIS STAGNANT AIR MASS SO SKY GRIDS ARE SLOW TO CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
THE TRAPPED MOIST LAYER IS FORECAST TO DRIFT BACK NWD TONIGHT AS
SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DELAY CLEARING
ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL FRI AFTERNOON TO SEE
SOMETHING NEAR FULL CLEARING. HOWEVER...SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW
PRES OUT TO SEA AND ANOTHER IN THE GREAT LAKES FRI SHOULD BE A
FAIR DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THAT THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
AGAIN BRING A SURGE OF OCEAN STATUS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY/....MAINLY IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
ZONES. EXPECT LOW TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS ADVECT IN.

SATURDAY LOOKING GRAY AND CLAMMY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL GIVE
WAY TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND.

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A MODERATE
TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY BAND OF RAIN SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON QPF BUT STILL
LOOKING FOR 1 TO 1.5 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
EXPECT RAIN TO CLEAR FAR EASTERN ZONES BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE A BIT TRICKY WITH SOME DEGREE OF
CLEARING PUSHING INTO WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST AND
NORTHWEST ZONES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 40S WHILE CLOUDIER
EASTERN ZONES BOTTOM OUT WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 50.

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY
BRINGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WILL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH AND A CHANCE
OF A LATE DAY SHOWER IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

NEXT WEEK LOOKING COOL AND UNSETTLED AS MONSTER CLOSED LOW
MEANDERS AROUND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ROTATING WEAK
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE AREA. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IMPOSSIBLE
TO FORECAST AT THIS POINT IN TIME BUT WILL LIKELY SEE OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. ANY PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO SRN NH AND EXTREME SWRN ME.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT THIS MORNING TO VFR...WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING
TO BREAK UP LATE IN THE DAY. COMPLETE CLEARING WILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL FRI.

LONG TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH SEAS ABOVE 5 FT AND WINDS
NEAR MARGINAL SCA GUSTS. AS WINDS DECREASE TODAY A TRANSITION TO
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO


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