Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 050250
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1050 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TO NEW ENGLAND...ALONG WITH COOL...ONSHORE WINDS.
ONE PERIOD COMES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE: WIDESPREAD RAIN NOW ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS OF ME/NH. STICKING WITH HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS OVER
SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL MAINE AND SOUTHERN NH UNTIL VERY LATE
TONIGHT. INCREASED QPF TOTALS SOME ALONG COASTAL AND ADJACENT
INLAND AREAS. TEMPS NOT MOVING MUCH AS FORECAST BUT A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS NEEDED BASED ON OBS.

450PM UPDATE: UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE HIGH POPS ACROSS NH AND
WESTERN ME THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
OCCURRING. FURTHER E ACROSS THE MIDCOAST ONLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME AND LEFT VERY LOW POPS. INCREASED POPS FOR THE EARLY
EVENING AS WELL AS TRAJECTORIES AND MODELS ALL POINT TO AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE. RADAR AND WATER VAPOR SUPPORTS THIS SHORT
TERM TREND. MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG TONIGHT AS IT GRADUALLY UNDERGOES
CYCLOGENESIS AND MOVES NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE COASTLINE.

THE PTYPE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT SLEET OR SNOW
PELLETS MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES OVER MOUNT WASHINGTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERIODS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. THE EURO APPEARS
TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT CROSSES THE BENCHMARK THURSDAY EVENING. DUE TO THIS
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG THE COAST...IN PARTICULAR
THE MIDCOAST REGION WHERE OVER AN INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE PRECIP MAY TAPER TO SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
WINDS BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CHILLY...WITH 40S TO LOWER
50S MAINLY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
MEAN TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN DURING THE
PERIOD WITH A SOME RAINY/SHOWERY PERIODS.

IN THE DAILIES...ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND CLOUDY ON
FRIDAY. IT WON/T BE A WASHOUT BUT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE SAME GOES FOR SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WE MAY GET A
BREAK FROM THE REAL CRUDDY WEATHER ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SHOT OF A DRY DAY THEN.
THEREAFTER...FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD
EXISTS WHERE A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT SETS UP. IF IT SETS UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...RAINY WEATHER WILL RETURN. HOPEFULLY IT
SETS UP SOUTH OF THERE AND ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF NICE DAYS TUE AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOP. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH A VERY SLOW AND SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STUBBORN LOW
PRESSURE NEARBY ALLOWS FOR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN/SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS SYSTEM MOVES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BUILDING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE SCAS MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL PROBABLY HOLD AT LOW-END SCA CRITERIA DUE TO PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DAYS OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH WETTING RAINS ON AND OFF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING
ONSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. COORDINATED WITH WFO BOX AND PLAN TO HANDLE
ANY POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES WITH ADVISORIES ON THURSDAY...IF
NEEDED...IN AREAS FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH. THEREFORE NO
WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED THIS PACKAGE.

NART BASED WAVE RUNUP MATRICES CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME EROSION
BEGINNING THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE ALONG COASTAL YORK
COUNTY. HOWEVER...NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE AROUND 5-6 FEET. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE EURO IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$



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