Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 230103
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
903 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The passage of an arctic front will allow for cold temperatures
to continue through Thursday. A warm front will move in from
the west on Friday with some light snow and rain ahead of it.
Another cold front will drop down from the north on Saturday
with more cold air expected for Sunday and Monday. Low pressure
tracking south of New England on Monday could bring some light
snow or a wintry mix of precipitation Monday into Monday night.
Another low pressure system will track through New England on
Wednesday with another chance of wintry precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
905 AM Update...Have cancelled the wind advisory as latest obs
indicate below-advisory levels across the vast majority of the
CWA. Otherwise, a clear but very cold late March night will
continue.

705 PM Update...Winds continue to be the story early this
evening as well as the cold air. Peak gusts as of 23z show
values still around 40 kt at times, so will continue the wind
advisory. Wind gusts should come down some over the next hour or
two due to the loss of daytime heating and mixing. Therefore, we
may be able to cancel the advisory early.

Previously...

High pressure building in from the west tonight will maintain a
tight northwesterly gradient across the region. Wind gusts of 40
to 50 mph can be expected into the evening hours before winds
diminish somewhat later this evening. Will be continuing wind
advisories through midnight. Lingering diurnal clouds in the
mountains should dry up this evening. Have gone several degrees
below guidance for overnight lows due to the unusually cold
airmass for this time of year. Looking for lows of 5 below to 5
above north with readings bottoming out in the single numbers
south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Sunny but unseasonably cold weather continues on Thursday as
high pressure crests over the region. Expect gusty winds in the
morning to gradually drop off in the afternoon. Highs will top
out at 15 to 25 north and in the mid 20s to near 30 south.

High pressure will shift offshore Thursday night and a broad
area of weak over-running will shift in from the west. Looking
for increasing clouds overnight with a chance of snow showers
pushing into western zones by daybreak. Expect any precip to be
light and spotty. Lows overnight will range from 5 to 15 north
and will range through the teens to near 20 south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Active winter pattern will continue into next week. Models
continue to diverge somewhat as to the strength and frequency of
approaching systems.

Models are in relatively good agreement with a strong warm air
advection pattern on Friday as a southwesterly flow develops.
Radiational cooling will have already occurred during the
morning hours, so boundary layer temperatures will remain cool
throughout much of the day. As the precipitation crosses the
region, central areas have a potential for a light mix of sleet
and freezing rain to be combined with the snow despite it being
so late in the season. Some snow will accumulate in the north,
with a possible changeover to rain over southern locations
during the afternoon.

Another very cold airmass builds southeastward from Canada on
Saturday. This will not be as cold as our most recent airmass as
the core of the coldest air remains locked up in Canada.
Nevertheless, the persistent presence of the surface high over
the weekend will divert the next approaching system to our
south early next week. By Monday, low pressure may be crossing
through the Gulf of Maine, leaving a mixture of snow to rain
from north to south. The Euro model is slower with the passage
of this system.

Yet another system will cross the region late Tuesday into
Wednesday. This will be followed by another blast of cold air
and plenty of snow showers late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...VFR tonight through Thursday night.

Long Term...Areas of MVFR and IFR conditions developing Friday
ahead of a warm front and again on Monday with low pressure
passing south of the region. Mixed precipitation will be
possible with these two events. Yes another mixed precipitation
event is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday, lowering the
visibilities and ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Continuing Gales through midnight.

Long Term...Gusty winds expected over the waters Friday from
the southwest. Winds may possibly approach gale force for a few
hours. SCAs are possible on Monday with a northeast wind
developing ahead of low pressure. Gales are possible on
Wednesday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ150>154.
     Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ153.
     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$



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