Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 060149
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
949 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
945 PM UPDATE: VERY QUIET NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
PATCHY FOG STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT.
INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
ANY REMAINING SHRA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED TO MID-COAST AND
SHOULD END BY 4 PM...AS WEAK SFC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
SIMILARLY WEAK WAVE ALOFT MOVES OFFSHORE. SFC HIGH BUILDS FROM THE
S BEHIND THIS WAVE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S N TO LOW 60S COAST AND SRN NH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC RIDGE NOSES IN FROM THE S MON MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFTS
EWD ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH INCREASING LOW LVL
MOISTURE. IT WILL BE WARM AS H85 TEMPS AROUND 15 C AND BETWEEN
STRONG SUN AND INCREASING SW FLOW...SHOULD SEE TEMPS MIX INTO THE
80S MOST EVERYWHERE BUT THE BEACHES. COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS IN THE
MERRIMACK VLY MAKE A RUN AT 90...BUT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S
HERE. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST SOME SCT CU
DEVELOPING.

MON NIGHT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WIND...SO RAD
COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL CLOSE TO THE TD...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 50S N...TO LOW MID 60S S...AND SOME PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BROAD CYCLONIC PATTERN ALOFT HOLDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. EVENTUALLY LOW PRESSURE CLOSES OFF OVER THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS FURTHER OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. STILL...THIS ONLY SERVES TO MAKE THE UPPER
FLOW SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR A TIME. TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS THE KEY TO WHEN WE WILL SEE ORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE WAVES OCCURS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS BREAK OUT ON TUESDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS WE WILL SEE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO INITIATE
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERHAPS A FEW STRONGER CELLS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER VERY WEAK
WAVE PASSES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU MON NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR VLY FOG...LKLY
AT KHIE/KLEB TONIGHT...AND A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ON MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING IN MODERATE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
PREVAILING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN WELL BLO SCA LVLS TONIGHT THU MON
NIGHT. SOME SWELL KEEPING SEAS AROUND 3 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND
ONSHORE WILL PICK UP A LITTLE NEAR THE SHORE MON AFTERNOON IN SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE FLIRTED WITH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS AS SEAS AND WINDS STAY
BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



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