Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 191910
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
310 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SHORE TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING
ALOFT. NOT EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE AS EFFICIENT AS IT
WAS LAST NIGHT BECAUSE OF THIS...HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING TO SEE
FROST IN NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON ENDED LAST
NIGHT...SO NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD STILL SEE SOME SUN
TOMORROW BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO 70 DEGREES
MAY BE REACHABLE IN A FEW SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...WITH WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 60S. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE AS WAA AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE
50S WITH LOWS POSSIBLY NOT DROPPING OUT OF THE 60S IN SOUTHEAST
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN A LARGE SCALE TROUGHING PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BROAD TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUNDAY AS A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT PATHS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY INTO NEW ENGLAND.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND AGAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF NY STATE...WITH POSSIBLY A COASTAL STORM STEALING THE
MOST MOISTURE. MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN AS WELL.

LINGERING SHOWERS/CLOUDS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WITH. A FEW SHORT
WAVES TAKE SWIPES AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINS OVERHEAD...BUT ONLY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES SUNDAY LOOKS WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AS WINDS TURN SW. A FEW SPOTS EVEN NEAR 80 DEGREES. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT HIGHS DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH ON THE COLDEST NIGHTS (TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY) TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WHERE FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE PREVALENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOG WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINED MONDAY AND IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS MAY SEE MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY IN LINGERING
SHOWERS. VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA BY
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AFTER WARM FRONT PASSES THE REGION. GUSTS
WILL BE UP TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL BE IN THE 5 FOOT RANGE ON THE
OUTER WATERS...BUT RIGHT NOW THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
SUGGEST THAT AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED. WILL HAVE THE NIGHT SHIFT TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK WHEN NEW FORECAST GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL RISE ABOVE 5 FT WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS
ON MONDAY IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KISTNER/HANES



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