Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 220335
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1035 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The Florida Keys reside between a high cell, centered just east
of the Bahamas, and a low pressure system moving eastwards through
the plains. Winds have trended upwards this evening as the
pressure gradient tightens between these two systems. The
environment remains fairly inhospitable for convective development
at this time with this evenings sounding indicating a strong
subsidence inversion around 800 mb. Shower have been minimal with
all activity located along a broken line that emerged off of Cuba
late in the afternoon.

Short Term Update - Winds will continue to trend upwards through
the overnight period and through tomorrow. The environment is
expected to gradually destabilize, however shower activity should
remain isolated through the remainder of tonight. No update is
planned this evening for the local forecast.

Weather is expected to deteriorate significantly late Sunday
evening as a strong cold front and associated potentially strong
prefrontal showers and thunderstorms blast through the Keys.
Meanwhile winds will become very windy and a wind advisory may be
required Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds continue to strengthen on Keys waters tonight the gradient
tightens between a low pressure system moving eastwards across the
central United States and a high pressure centered east of the
Bahamas. A small craft advisory remain in effect for the Florida
Straits and a caution on most other waters for increasing winds.
Updated first period wind transition wording in the evening marine
update.

Mariners keep appraised of deteriorating weather conditions
through the remainder of the weekend. Winds will continue to
strengthen Sunday and Sunday night, and small craft advisories
will be become required for all Florida Keys waters. Showers and
thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase ahead of the front
and some convection could be strong.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue at both EYW and MTH terminals overnight
with southeast increasing winds to around 15 knots. As Sunday
progresses, winds will pick up, reaching 20 knots and gusty to
around 30 knots by late morning. A cold front will reach the Florida
Keys late Sunday evening and active weather is expected ahead of it.
Squall lines accompanied with thunderstorms and strong winds could
affect both terminals through early Monday morning.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for Florida Striats GMZ052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....KN

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