Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301419
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1015 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHS SHOW VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT
DETECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.
SURFACE WISE...A BROAD AND NEBULOUS RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
AND THE BAHAMIAN CHAIN...AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. ON OUR MARINE
DISTRICT...WINDS ARE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...OUR MORNING
SOUNDING SHOWS SCANT MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB...WITH SEVERAL SHALLOW...LOW LEVEL
ISOTHERMAL LAYERS. LIGHT AND CHAOTIC WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST ABOVE 850 MB...
BEFORE TURNING NORTH NORTHEAST ABOVE 500 MB.

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...(REST OF TODAY)
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE DRAPED
ACROSS OUR REGION...SOUTHWARD INTO THE ISLAND OF CUBA. BECAUSE OF
THIS...CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR PERSIST BELOW 700 MB. WITH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DESCENT...MESOSCALE TRIGGERS IN THE FORM OF CLOUD LINE GENESIS
AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES WILL BE OUR PRECIPITATING SOURCES. DESPITE CHANGEABLE
SKIES DUE TO PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 90S ALONG MOST KEYS COMMUNITIES. WITH THAT SAID...THE ONLY
UPDATE TO THE CURRENT PUBLIC FORECAST WILL BE TO REMOVE TRANSITIONAL
WORDING...AND INSERT ISOLATED 10 TO 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LINGERING BOUNDARIES AND SEVERAL WATERSPOUTS ALREADY BEING
OBSERVED SOUTH OF THE BAHIA HONDA AND MARATHON AREA...MARINERS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WATERSPOUTS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE ISLAND CHAIN FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS OR OUFLOW BOUNDARIES...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
TO PASS NEAR BY EITHER OF THE TERMINALS...BUT DUE TO TIMING WILL
ADDRESS THIS WITH AN AMENDMENT IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS
UNDER 5 KNOTS FROM WEST TO NORTH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1890...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE WAS 69 DEGREES SETTING THE DAILY RECORD MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR KEY WEST ON JULY 30TH. THIS RECORD STANDS 125 YEARS
LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&


.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.DIGITAL.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.............KN
DATA ACQUISITION..............SC

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