Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 280159
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
958 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TRAVERSED WEST SOUTHWESTWARD...AND THROUGH THE
OUTER WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND THE WATERS IN AND AROUND DRY TORTUGAS.
CURRENTLY...LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TRAVERSING
SOUTHWESTWARD AND ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS AND THE ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS.
ELSEWHERE...THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN...SKIES
RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS...TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE
UPPER KEYS. SURFACE WISE...A TENACIOUS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS ANCHORED ACROSS
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ON OUR MARINE
DISTRICT...WINDS ARE MOSTLY EAST BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR
25 KNOTS AT SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
DESPITE EXTREMELY DRY AIR ALOFT...A SUBTLE LOW LEVEL WIND SURGE COMBINED WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
20 PERCENT POPS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SINCE THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK...NO UPDATE
FORESEEN.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT
FLORIDA BAY TONIGHT...WITH A MODEST WIND LULL EXPECTED BY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
SURGE OVERSPREADS OUR MARINE DISTRICT LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND 2500 FEET...CANNOT BE
RULED OUT OVERNIGHT...BUT ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF DUE TO THE SHORT
DURATIONS EXPECTED. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ032>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/CLIMATE/FIRE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION/NOWCAST.....................BF
DATA ACQUISITION.....................MP
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