Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 260901
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
501 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Temperatures are currently in the low 80s across the Florida Keys,
and dew points are in the upper 70s. The 00z sounding came in
with a slight uptick in moisture, but with a PWAT of nearly 1.7
inches, we are right within the 50th percentile for moisture for
late June.

A weak trough lingers across Central Florida, but the western
flank of the Bermuda high remains in control of our local weather.
KBYX radar and IR satellite reveal a few low-topped showers moving
through the eastern Florida Straits and southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Otherwise, skies are mostly clear around the island chain.
On land, winds are out of the east, ranging from 8 to 15 mph. In
similar fashion, CMAN stations across our marine district register
winds generally out of the east and southeast from 7 to 15 knots.

.DISCUSSION...
With a lighter steering flow, but slightly enhanced moisture
profile, we are seeing distant showers a bit stronger during this
early morning hour than what has been observed over the past
week. These showers, however, do lack the push to actually make
the `long` journey across the water to cross the island chain at
this time. With nearly a classic climatological set up, and a
pressure gradient that will continue to weaken (as the Bermuda
High sinks south and east) in the near future, we see no reason
to stray from climatology values. Therefore, expect rain chances
of 30 percent, with highs approaching 90 and lows hovering near 80
degrees this week. In the extended period near the weekend, the
Bermuda High will shift northward and tighten the pressure
gradient across the Keys/Bermuda/Cuba corridor. Other than
possible increasing winds, moisture profiles will stay similar,
and no apparent synoptic-scale disturbances are in sight.

&&

.MARINE...
Expect 10-15 knot winds to relax later today and tonight,
bringing pleasant boating conditions through at least mid-week.
High pressure stationed across the Atlantic will keep winds
predominantly out of the east. No advisories or cautionary
statements are expected through at least Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at island terminals today. There will
a chance for brief sub VFR conditions due to passing maritime
showers. Expect east to southeast winds near 10 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in Florida Keys history, in 1903, a low temperature
of 69 degrees was recorded in Key West. This set the daily record
for coldest low temperature for June 26th, a record that still
stands 114 years later. Temperature records in Key West date back
to 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  89  81  89  81 / 30 30 30 30
Marathon  91  81  91  81 / 30 30 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...MCLOVIN
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Collection......99

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