Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 231858
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
258 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Under partly cloudy skies and south winds of 10 to 15 mph,
temperatures range between 85 and 90 degrees along the island
chain. Meanwhile, local radars are detecting an isolated shower on
Florida Bay. Surface wise, a western Atlantic ridge extends across
the Straits of Florida with a developing cold front over the
extreme northwest Gulf of Mexico. Winds are mostly south at 10 to
15 knots on our marine district.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Significant changes are on the way with a deep anticyclonic flow
being shoved southward over the island of Cuba by Wednesday. This
will be in response to an unusually deep mid latitude trough
setting up over the eastern United States, the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and the Sunshine State Wednesday night through Thursday
night. Thereafter, this trough will lift northward with the
western Atlantic ridge nosing northward toward our area. Because
of the approaching and digging trough, a strengthening and
increasing southerly and cyclonic flow will result in at least 2
periods of showers and thunderstorms across our county warning
area. With that said, a 30 knot (mean 850-700 mb) south to
southwest flow will allow deep convection to move northward from
the archipelago of Cuba late tomorrow into Wednesday evening.
Thereafter, a low level confluent flow combined with mid and
upper level ascent, including the right entrance region of the jet
will prompt at least likely pops Wednesday night into Thursday
morning before tapering off. However, expect another round of
showers and thunderstorms to migrate into our area from the island
of Cuba late Thursday and early Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
With the departing deep tropospheric trough early this weekend,
a western Atlantic ridge will build across the Florida peninsula
well into next week. With the strengthening anticylonic flow, low
chance pops will transition to isolated rain chances beginning
Sunday. Highs will average in the upper 80s with overnight lows
generally in the upper 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Over the next couple of days, there will be significant wind
surges and lulls with the highest winds expected late Wednesday
night and Thursday morning. In addition, even higher winds will
accompany rapidly moving showers and thunderstorms from late
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning, and again Thursday
evening. Hence, mariners should stay tuned for rapidly changing
conditions including headlines and likely warnings.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail this evening and overnight at
the EYW and MTH terminals. A few showers may reach the vicinity of
the terminals after midnight, along with a low probability for a
shower-related MVFR visibility and ceiling. Southeast to south winds
near 10 knots this evening will gradually increase to 10 to 15 knots
Wednesday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1940, the daily record low temperature of 69 degrees was
recorded in Key West. Temperature records have been kept since
1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  80  87  77  84 / 20 30 70 70
Marathon  80  91  78  88 / 20 30 70 70

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...APA
Aviation/Nowcasts....KN
Data Collection......BF

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