Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 170129
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
929 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS POPPED UP NEAR FLAMINGO AND HAS MOVED OVER
THE GULF SIDE WATERS NORTH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS...AND IS
ATTEMPTING TO REGENERATE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WINDS ARE
MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT THE
ISLAND TERMINALS...AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT THE C-MAN STATIONS
SURROUNDING THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN.

.FORECAST...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DUE TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH A
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE AREA. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES HAS AN AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
ALONG THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN FLIRTING THE THE KEYS AREA FOR THE LAST
24 TO 36 HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE OVERNIGHT...THEN EBB
DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
ALTHOUGH THERE A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IS WEAK. THE FRONT IS BECOMING
DIFFUSE AND WOULD EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS...AND HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED TO THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVERNIGHT ON ALL KEYS WATERS DUE
TO THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING NEAR THE KEYS AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO
SURGE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES OUT TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY. THE NEXT CELL OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MADE IT TO THE
MARATHON ISLAND TERMINAL...PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS AT MARATHON
EARLIER. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTING THIS
TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TERMINALS AND THESE WINDS OUT OF THE EAST. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT
TIMING...AND IF THEY OCCUR...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN. WILL
PROVIDE TIMELY AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1942...1.03 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST SETTING THE DAILY RECORD FOR RAINFALL ON APRIL 16TH.
THIS RECORD REMAINS STANDING 72 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY
WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......L. KASPER

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