Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 181117 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
517 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

Northwest flow aloft with high clouds moving into the Panhandle.
Light and variable winds will become westerly this morning and
increase through the afternoon. Temperatures will be forecast
challenge. Downslope versus high clouds. Have trended todays just
slightly lower over the east and slightly higher over the west where
downslope winds will overcome cloud cover. West winds 10 to 20mph
with some higher gusts north. Tonight mostly clear skies with light
and variable winds. Lows in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

Quiet weather continues through Wednesday as surface high
pressure slowly sinks southeastward across the central US.
Temperatures remain mild through this timeframe. Expect highs in the
mid 40s to low 50s on Tuesday and highs in the low to upper 50s on
Wednesday. Some locations (mainly south of I-80) could even see a
high rising into the low 60s on Wednesday.

The major weather concern for the extended period arrives on
Wednesday night. A surface low pressure system will develop off the
front range of the Rockies and move across the central Plains. As
this low develops, precipitation chances exist across much of
Nebraska. Model uncertainty in timing and intensity is still high
and therefore confidence in snowfall totals as well as precipitation
type is still low. There is a concern for some isolated freezing
rain potential across portions of our eastern forecast area on
Thursday morning with this system. At this time, due to model
uncertainty, have decided to hold off on the freezing rain mention
and will just stick to a rain/snow precipitation type.

As the majority of the event will be all snow, accumulations will
total from almost 3 inches across the Nebraska/South Dakota border
down to less than a half inch south of I-80. Precipitation will
likely start across the north by midnight Thursday and spread
southward throughout the day. The best chance for the heaviest
snowfall will be between noon and 6pm Thursday where around an inch
of new snow could fall across most locations north of I-80. Will
continue to fine-tune details as this system and the environment
becomes better sampled over the coming days.

A brief break in the active weather is expected for Friday. The next
chance for snow will be on Saturday as a system moves off the
Rockies and brushes the western and southern portions of the
forecast area. Again details are a bit uncertain but at this time,
snowfall is anticipated to remain generally south of a line from
Antioch to Broken Bow with totals up to 2 inches across southwest
Nebraska. Temperatures remain chilly through the weekend with highs
only in the teens for both Saturday and Sunday and lows dropping
into the single digits.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 512 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

High clouds today with westerly winds at 5 to 15 mph and a few
higher gusts. Visual Flight Rules expected.




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