Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 201822
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
122 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA...NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...AND ANOTHER
CLOSED SYSTEM OVER SRN ARIZONA. CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A
DECENT LEAD SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS SRN NEBRASKA
AND HAS INTERACTED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH IS FOCUSED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS HAS LED TO SOME ISOLATES
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING PER
RADAR IMAGERY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. AT THE SURFACE...A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED GENERALLY ALONG A LINE
FROM NORFOLK NEBRASKA...TO NEAR MCCOOK NEBRASKA. EAST OF THIS
LINE...WINDS WERE SOUTHERLY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WHILE
NORTH OF THIS FRONT...DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AT 3 AM CDT...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 35 AT VALENTINE...TO 50 AT
ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN. FOR TODAY...THE LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH DRY CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDDAY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS
OF WESTERN KANSAS...AND THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. WITH
SURFACE HEATING...AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HINDRANCE TO WIDESPREAD PCPN CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ATTM THE BEST MOISTURE...AND ITS MEAGER AT
THAT...WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
BEFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED FROM SWRN
INTO NERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE
CONCENTRATED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR EASTERN
ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COVERAGE AND EXPECTED PCPN
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
FURTHER NORTH...INHERITED FCST DID HAVE A MENTION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THIS EVENING.
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DIDNT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED POPS...EVEN IN LIGHT OF THE LIMITED MOISTURE.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HIGHS TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 70S. I DID LIMIT THE
WARMUP SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH EXPECTED MID CLOUD COVER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. FOR
TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE
EAST WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER...AND IN LOWER 40S IN THE WEST
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
WITH CLEARING SKIES. REBOUND OF TEMPS INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70
AND DRY. BY TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST WITH RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BRING AN INCREASE OF TEMPS. 850MB TEMPS WARM
FROM AROUND 10C WELL INTO THE TEENS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER
20S. A WARM UP IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAIN ON HOW WARM
IT WILL BE. THE GFS IS LEADING THE WAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
80S FOR SW NEB BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE MID RANGE
MODELS ARE HOLDING HIGHS BELOW 80. HAVING SEEN LITTLE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL YET THIS MONTH...MOST AREAS AT LEAST AN INCH BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE MONTH...WILL GO CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE WHICH IS MORE
CHARACTERISTIC OF THE AREA WHEN DRY. ONE POSSIBLE HICCUP TO THE
FORECAST WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST WILL SEE WAVE AT PEAK
HEATING AND MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION. ACTIVITY
IF IT GETS GOING SHOULD DEVELOP WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN
MOVE EAST ONTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. LOW POPS WITH THIS PASSAGE AS
CONCERNED DRY LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY...IF
IT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF.

A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. PREFRONTAL
DRY LINE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
DEVELOPMENT...WHEN THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE BETTER MOISTURE.

COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT TO END THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS DROP INTO THE
50S AND 60S...WHICH IS MORE SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND COULD LEAD TO SOME
PRECIP NEAR THE S DAKOTA BORDER. BETTER DYNAMICS IN THE
DAKOTAS...THUS ONLY BRIEF LOW POPS OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTH.

BY THE WEEKEND MODELS SHOWING LITTLE AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS DIGGING
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE LOW STILL OF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. OVER THE
PLAINS RIDGING IS MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE GFS AND WOULD SUGGEST
WARM AND DRY...WHILE THE THE ECMWF IS MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH A SHORT
WAVE OVERHEAD AND COOLER WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE BLEND FOR NOW AND MONITOR AS CHANGES ARE LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR KONL TO KLBF TO
KIML THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING. EXPECT ISOLATED
TSTMS WITHIN THE BAND...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS/CEILINGS EXPECTED. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT...FIRST IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTM ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR






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