Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 221053

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
253 AM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Warm weather will continue into the weekend with very
little in the way of precipitation. A low pressure system will
bring rain to most of Nevada Sunday night and Monday.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday. The models are in pretty good
agreement on basically a dry forecast for the short term. High
pressure off the Pacific coast will be the key player and prevent
any significant storm intrusion. Surely there is not much to
worry about over the next few days as we continue with our
remarkably warm temperatures.

Today and tonight. Due to the warm temperatures on Tuesday, some
additional moisture was released into the near-surface atmosphere
creating some fog issues for the morning hours. Shallow fog
development was noted at the east end of Elko around 130am
followed by a decrease in visibility at the airport on the west
end of town. It seems intermittent for now so patchy fog will be
in the forecast this morning for Elko County. When the fog lifts
or burns off around 9am, a beautiful day is in store for the
entire LKN CWFA with only a few clouds due to a surge
amplification of the Pacific ridge. Low temperatures will range
from the 30s to around 40 degrees. High temperatures will range
from the mid 60s to near 70 degrees. Some record highs possible.

Thanksgiving Day and night. High pressure will remain fairly
strong centered off the coast of Baja California. But not strong
enough to ward off some penetration by an upper low passing to the
north of the state. As the ridge rolls over positive-tilt, a
southwest flow will help continue the exceptional warmth spreading
across the state however a slight chance for precipitation will
have to be in place for northern Nevada. The likely outcome will
be some sprinkles south of Interstate 80 with a slight chance for
some wetting showers north of Interstate 80. Low temperatures
will range from the 30s to around 40 degrees. High temperatures
will range from the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. Some record high
temperatures possible.

Friday. After Thanksgiving is trending towards dry as the ridge
attempts to re-establish behind the upper level short wave
passage. High temperatures will be in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...Friday night through next Tuesday.

Southwest flow develops at the start of the long term period as
low pressure from Alaska drops down south to off of the BC coast.
Some moisture gets drawn in from the Pacific on Friday night
through Saturday but only grazes the far northwestern portions of
NV as it runs into the upper ridge that has moved a bit eastward
but still remains well amplified into Canada.

The BC low is progged to move eastward into Washington and Oregon
on Sunday night, dragging a cold front quickly through Nevada
Sunday night and Monday. Global models are in pretty good
agreement for this far out and are now indicating temperatures
cold enough for rain to turn to snow in the valleys, though the
speed of the front would limit accumulations. Precipitation also
may reach into parts of central Nevada, though the best chances
will exist in northern Nevada. Gusty winds look to effect the
region Sunday night and Monday.

Models are indicating that ridging will build back in quickly
behind the front on Tuesday.

Temperatures will remain above normal at the start of the long
term period and then should drop back towards normal after the
cold front passage.


.AVIATION...Some patchy fog will be present early this morning in
Elko County and will drop cigs and visibilities at times to LIFR
at KEKO. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through Wednesday
evening all terminals.




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