Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 242134
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
234 PM PDT Fri Mar 24 2017
.SYNOPSIS...A storm system will affect the state today through
Saturday bringing mainly valley rain and mountain snow. A lull in
the weather pattern is expected late Saturday night through early
Sunday however another system will begin moving into the Great
Basin by late Sunday.
.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday.
This afternoon through Saturday evening. A trough axis will slowly
move through the Great Basin and the moist flow will continue to
shift south. For much of the time, moisture will be scavenged by
the Sierras. The main impacts with this storm will be over
central Nevada. Expect valley rain and mountain snowfall with this
system. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the Ruby
Mountains and White Pine County above 7000 feet. There will be
some accumulation below that level however surface temperatures
will minimize the hazard. High temperatures will range from the
50s to around 60 degrees. Low temperatures will generally be in
Midnight Saturday through Sunday morning. This should be a dry
period. The trough is expected to make a clean exit, replaced by a
short wave albeit low-amplitude ridge. Low temperatures will
generally be in the 20s.
Sunday afternoon through Monday. The next storm system will begin
to affect the northwest Nevada and then spreading across the rest
of the state. A trough axis extending from an upper level low off
the coast of Canada will move across California and the Great
basin. Showers will spread across Humboldt County and begin to
affect the higher terrain east of Humboldt County by late
afternoon. The moisture from this system is generally northward
of highway 50. As with the previous storms this system will
produce mostly valley rain and mountain snow. However the snow
levels look to be lower overall which will allow for a greater
chance of snow reaching the valley floors but not accumulating.
High temperatures will generally be in the 40s to 50s.
.LONG TERM...Monday night through Friday night. Overall model
agreement improved from previous runs. Active pattern continues
through Thursday. Thereafter, dry and quiet conditions are
The wrap-around/deformation zone from the system in the beginning
of the period is not as pronounce as previous runs, therefore
scaled back pops Monday night. With this in mind, also reduce pops
for Tuesday as well as stable and drier air should be able to
advect in fairly quickly. More favored upslope areas will receive
the bulks of precip that falls Monday not, but still not expecting
that much in the way of snow accumulation. Temperatures should
rebound slightly on Tuesday to near to slightly below average,
with another bump on Wednesday as sfc and mid level flow turns
around to the west to south southwest. All models and ensembles
pushed the track of the inside slider system progged to impact the
Thursday further northeast, therefore digging it southward more
into central UT. This reduces the pops for central NV but more
importantly keeps the snow levels higher than previous thought.
Only modest QPF amounts expected with highest totals near the
ID/NV border. The timing of the frontal passage could bring a
chance of thunderstorms also. Still, snow levels will drop to many
valley floors Thursday evening, especially if the convection
develops. Showers persist Thursday night, mainly over higher
terrain in eastern NV. Thereafter, long wave ridge builds into the
area from the southwest, which shifts the storm track further
north. Most areas should be dry and slightly warmer on Friday, but
cannot rule out a shower near the NV/UT border in the mtns.
As for winds, no advisory or warning level winds expected. Breezy
conditions (northerly winds) expected Tuesday and Friday due to a
semi-tight north-south gradient. Winds could also be gusty due to
frontal passage Thursday, especially around any convection.
High temperatures will generally be in the 50s in the valleys
Tuesday, warming to 60s on Wednesday before cooling off to the 50s
on Thursday. 50s and 60s expected on Friday.
.AVIATION...CIGs are slowly lowering as a frontal system is just
entering western Nevada. Rain will impact all terminals over the
next 24hrs, with a change over to snow at KELY early tomorrow
morning. MVFR CIGs expected at all terminals with a chance for IFR
CIGS at KELY due to snow. Conditions improve from west to east by
tomorrow morning with a fairly extensive stratocumulus deck
expected tomorrow afternoon. Breezy southerly winds should turn
around to the north to northwest early tomorrow.
.HYDROLOGY...Another moist storm system will bring another round
of valley rain and mountain snow over the weekend. The rainfall
could exacerbate flooding issues and there will be a couple more
storms between now and next week with the strongest system timed
for the period between Sunday night and Monday night. Rivers and
creeks will likely continue to run strong with the additional
Flood warnings are in effect for the following areas:
Bruneau River: Minor flooding continues.
Humboldt River - Palisade: Minor flooding continues.
Humboldt River - Battle Mountain: Moderate flooding continues.
Humboldt River - Comus: Moderate flooding continues.
Marys River: Minor flooding is occurring.
All other monitored creeks and rivers are below minor flood stage.
River Statements have been issued for the following areas:
Salmon Falls Creek near Jackpot, Martin Creek near Paradise Valley
and the Humboldt River near Carlin.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT Saturday for Ruby
Mountains/East Humboldt Range-White Pine County.