Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 260955

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
255 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop over most of
the region by this afternoon, with activity persisting into this
evening. Brief moderate to heavy rain is possible in thunderstorms
today, along with hail and gusty outflow winds. Afternoon
thunderstorm activity lingers over portions of the region later
this week, however activity will be lighter.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday. Water vapor imagery early
this morning showing drier air moving in from the west with
scattering or clearing skies in all but far eastern Nevada. Shower
and thunderstorm activity is expected to redevelop across much of
the region by this afternoon. While lifted indices, shear and
CAPE values today are similar to yesterday, surface dewpoints and
precipitable water values are lower, suggesting less of the heavy
rains. There still may be some storms with moderate rain, small
hail and gusty outflow winds however. Showers are expected to
diminish late this evening and overnight from west to east as
drier air once again moves in from the west. Fewer storms expected
on Thursday, with most of the activity focused over Elko and
eastern White Pine Counties.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Wednesday. Upper ridge
will gradually rebuild over the Great Basin this weekend into
early next week. Lingering moisture and weak instability under
this feature will result in a chance of isolated thunderstorms
across portions of central and eastern NV each day. With the
return of the upper level ridge a warming trend will set up with
upper 90s returning by mid next week.


.AVIATION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will redevelop
this afternoon around and en route of all TAF sites from available
monsoonal moisture and instability. Scattered storms will persist
through mid-evening and possibly into this evening/overnight.
Outflow winds over 30 knots, locally heavy heavy downpours and
small hail along with reduced visibilities to below MVFR are
likely in the vicinity of stronger convective cells. Cannot rule
out the possibility of an isolated severe gust/wet microbursts to
50 knots associated with a more intense descending storm core.

AMD NOT SKED will continue for KWMC until further notice due to
comms line issue.


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
through the mid to late morning hours, with increasing storm
activity this afternoon and evening. Wetting rains are likely with
most storms today, and relative humidity recoveries tonight will
be good in most areas. Fewer thunderstorms are expected on
Thursday, with the most active areas being Elko County and eastern
portions of White Pine County.





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