Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 031006
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
306 AM PDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NORTHERN NEVADA...PRIMARILY NORTH OF US
HIGHWAY 50...THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE IN CALIFORNIA WILL
ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY.
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO NEVADA
BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
IS SHOWING SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AT THIS
TIME. FURTHER WEST...MORE CLOUDS ARE SEEN DUE TO A PIECE OF ENERGY
IN THE FLOW. THIS ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD AND WILL
BE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A
250 MB JET WILL BE JUST ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. 0-3 KM BULK
SHEAR MAGNITUDES WILL BE IN THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE. WITH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
DURING THE EVENING...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID
40S TO LOW 50S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SAG TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND START CLOSING OFF IN MID-CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY.
OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA...ALONG WITH A 60 KNOT UPPER JET. AGAIN...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY
STRONG. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY A 500MB LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PW`S WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL PULL IN MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS
OF HURRICANES ANDRES AND BLANCO WITH PW`S INCREASING TO AROUND .75"
WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. SO SOME PORTIONS OF THE
AREA COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WILL BE A BIT DRIER AS THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. KEPT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOME AREAS BUT OVERALL DRIER
AS PW`S DECREASE AND STABILITY INCREASES.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEVADA SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH VCTS NEAR KEKO
WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE. RAIN WILL BE
LIMITED SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WET RUNWAYS. A 10 TO 15
PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KELY BUT KEPT IT OUT OF TAF AS
IT WILL MAINLY STAY NORTH OF AIRFIELD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LAMOILLE CREEK IS RUNNING NEAR ACTION STAGE AT THIS
TIME...ABOUT 3.6 FEET...AND SHOULD STAY BELOW ACTION STAGE
THROUGH THE THE WEEK. WITH INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
DECENT SNOW PACK ABOVE 9500FT...LAMOILLE CREEK COULD RISE ABOVE
ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL DEPEND
ON HOW MUCH TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ENTRAINED INTO NORTHERN NEVADA
AND EXACTLY HOW MUCH RAIN THE RUBY MTNS WILL SEE. THE ROBINSON
LAKE SNOTEL SITS AT 9200 FT AND STILL HAS ABOUT 27 INCHES OF
SNOW. MANY PLACES IN THE RUBIES HAVE A SIMILAR SNOW PACK...AT OR
ABOVE THAT ELEVATION. ALTHOUGH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...LAMOILLE
CREEK COULD RISE INTO ACTION STAGE DURING THE WEEKEND. PLEASE
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/90/90



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