Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 131108
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
408 AM PDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN HOT AND MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER TODAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT TODAY...BUT THEY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE COMMON ON MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIDGE HAS BUILT DIRECTLY OVER
NEVADA AS OF THIS WRITING AND WON`T BE GOING ANYWHERE FOR A DAY OR
SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY
AS A SUPPRESSING CAP WILL PUT A LID ON CONVECTION. HEAT WILL ALSO
INCREASE...AND IN A FEW INSOLATED INSTANCES THIS EXCESSIVE HEAT
MAY HELP BREAK THE CAP AND GET A THUNDERSTORM GOING AS PW`S REMAIN
ABOVE 1/2 INCH (AND IN SOME AREAS ABOVE 3/4 INCH)...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE A PRETTY ISOLATED OCCURRANCE...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO A
FEW DAYS AGO. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH LOW 100S IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS.

RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY...MORE OR LESS NOT MOVING AT
ALL. HOWEVER...A PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH WILL
HELP PUSH SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD (PW`S PUSHING 1 INCH
PLUS) AND ALSO WEAKEN THE CAP...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
THE STATE IN GREATER NUMBERS ON MONDAY. DESPITE THIS...IT LOOKS
LIKE MONDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS MANY OF THE
VALLEYS HAVE A SHOT AT 100 OR SO.

AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES DOWN THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON
TUESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
START TO PUSH MOISTURE BACK OUT OF NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL
REDUCE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH...BUT THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
PLENTIFUL FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DECLINE A BIT...BUT THEY SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. RCM

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. ONLY VERY MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. MODELS AGREE IN THE FIRST PART
OF THE LONG RANGE TO A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
SOME LIMITED ELEVATED MONSOON FLOW AROUND RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. HAVE LISTED
THUNDERSTORMS AS "WET" DUE TO LIMITED PW`S DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...WET MEANS IN THE VERY NARROW RAIN CORES
WHERE IT WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND. EXPECTING AREAS OF VIRGA
AND SOME DRY LIGHTNING ON PERIMETER OF STORMS. IF
ANYTHING...TWEAKED POPS DOWN JUST A HAIR AND TIGHTENED UP THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AREAS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN HOT...IT IS...AFTER
ALL...APPROACHING THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION...MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE FOR AVIATION CONCERNS...WHICH
MEANS VERY LIMITED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN BEST
POSSIBILITY NEAR KTPH AND KELY. HAVE ADDED A MIDDLE SCATTERED DECK
OF CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES...HINTING AT CONVECTIVE
BUILDUPS IN EACH AREA. DID NOT ADD THUNDER ANYWHERE AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL TEND TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN VERY HOT
WEATHER TODAY...BUT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE...BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED AS CAP WILL
TEND TO PREVENT STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS CHANGES MONDAY WHEN
MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE WITH PW`S APPROACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING 1
INCH...DESPITE THE RIDGE CENTER REMAINING OVERHEAD. WITH SLOW
STORM MOTION AND HIGH PW`S EXPECT AT LEAST SOME WETTING RAINS SO
DO NOT HAVE BIG DRY LIGHTNING CONCERNS...BUT AS ALWAYS SOME
LIGHTNING WILL BE OUTSIDE CORES AND SOME STARTS ARE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH MOISTURE
OUT OF NORTHERN AREAS. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE WIND/RH
CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES. MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH
THE WEEK. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

93/98/98/93




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