Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 301036
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
336 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND HAS
TAPPED INTO A FETCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE BEEHIVE STATE
AND VERY NEAR THE CLASSIC CORNERS MONSOON POSITION. ENTRAINED IN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE
PWS ARE HANDILY OVER 1 INCH...AND THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE
RETURN INTERVAL PINGING INTO A 30 YEAR EVENT. LONG STORY
SHORT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS JUICED. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BOTH
PROGGING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS...WITH LI`S
BROACHING -4 AND WIDESPREAD CAPES OVER 300 J/KG. THE HRRR PLACES
THE QPF BETWEEN I80 AND HIGHWAY 50...WHILE THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY
QPF FOCUS NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER. THE CORFIDI VECTORS ARE RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10. OVERALL...THE NEXT 2 DAYS LOOKS VERY REMINISCENT OF
A CLASSIC MONSOON PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD
LEVELS...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
EACH AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. THERMAL TROF SHIFTS TO
EXTREME WESTERN NV ON FRIDAY LEAVING THE CWA DRY AND STABLE. RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. LAST AFD BEFORE RETIREMENT. HARMER

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE PWS ARE OVER 1 INCH FOR MOST ZONES OR AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THE ZONE THE NEXT 72 HRS. WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE. THE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM FOR TSRA WILL BE DIURNAL HEATING ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT
LOBES WILL TAKE A GLANCING BLOW AT THE LKN CWA...RESULTING IN
EPISODES OF ENHANCED CONVECTION. WENT FOR LALS OF 4 IN MULTIPLE
ZONES...WHICH FALLS INTO THE CATEGORY OF HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT.

&&



.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/87/87


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