Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 252247
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
247 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY. VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV FROM THE WEST COAST BRINGING
DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON THANKSGIVING DAY ALLOWING
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NV THANKSGIVING
DAY AND LEFTOVER DAY FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, BUT VERY MILD WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS BREAK THE RIDGE
DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS MOIST PACIFIC FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
CALIFORNIA. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING SOME PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND ALONG THE IDAHO-NEVADA BORDER ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...RIDGE BRIEF REBUILDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH OFF THE WEST COAST. THUS HAVE LOWERED
POPS OVER MOST OF CWA OVER THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO
UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WESTERN HALF THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON MONDAY AS
THE GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH PUSHING TROF INTO NORTHERN CA AND THUS
SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW INTO EASTERN NV QUICKER...WHEREAS THE EC
CONFINES THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER CALIFORNIA. GFS CONTINUES IT
FASTER SPEED WITH THE TROF MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST AS BOTH MODELS SUGGEST SOME DYNAMICS OVER THE CWA. HAVE
JUST LOW POPS NEXT TUESDAY WITH UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING OF MODELS.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TAF
SITES AT TIMES.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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