Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 260920

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
220 AM PDT Mon Sep 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and warm weather under a ridge of high pressure
will continue through Tuesday across Nevada. A weak disturbance
could bring showers back to southern and east central parts of
the state Wednesday and Thursday while stronger upper-level
trough is expected to bring increasing cloud cover and
opportunities for precipitation by the end of the week.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday. Upper ridge will persist
through the short term forecast, producing highs in the 70s to low
80s, and lows in the 30s and 40s. Winds will be light under the
ridge. The warming will trigger some snow melt in the Rubies and
other higher ranges, but will likely be a bit slower than
previously thought. Flooding should not be a concern, however
streamflows will increase. Due to the heavy rains lately, the
Humboldt River near Elko is at almost 500% of median flow for the
date, but this is such a dry time of year that just means it`s
actually flowing a bit. Still, we`ll keep an eye on flow in the
smaller streams.

The models have depicted a northwest Mexico upper closed low
forming and moving north toward southern Nevada and the water
vapor imagery shows it happening, with thunderstorms moving into
southern Arizona. Toward Tuesday afternoon, mid level and higher
clouds will creep into central and east-central Nevada.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday

Mild weather continues to start the long term with high temps
climbing into the 70s and 80s for Wednesday and Thursday. High
pressure begins to shift east out into the Plains states on
Wednesday and a long way trough over the Gulf of Alaska amplifies
as it approaches the Pacific Northwest. This will help draw up a
cutoff low over the Gulf of California into the Southwest US. This
low will bring an increase of sub-tropical moisture and weak
instability, mostly to eastern half of the state as dry southwest
flow ahead of the approaching Pacific trough will track the cutoff
into Utah and keep the moisture and instability from creeping to
far west. By Friday, the trough will begin to push on shore and
strong divergent flow aloft will bring more showers and
thunderstorms...mainly over eastern NV where enough residual
moisture and instability will be in place behind the departing
low. Winds will also strengthen due to tighter pressure gradient
but should remain below advisory criteria. High temps will also
drop a few degrees as the heights begin to fall...but will still
be above average. For the weekend...model disagreement becomes
slightly more pronounced. While both the GFS and EC indicate a
frontal passage on Saturday...the timing and strength of the
trailing upper-level trough remains more clouded. The GFS hints
at a more flat progressive trough passage while the
EC...particularly previous runs...hinted at a low dropping down
into the Great Basin. With the latest EC and ensemble means more
in agreement with the GFS...kept precip chances more confined
across northern Nevada for the weekend...along with more
seasonable temps in the 60s.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions with winds 10 knots or less at all
terminals for the next 24 hours.


.FIRE WEATHER...Even with the ridge of high pressure sitting over
the Great Basin producing lower RH`s, the winds will be light and
so extreme fire weather is not a concern. Recent heavy rains and
snow, apart from zone 467, have reduced the fire potential, as




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