Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 291024
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
324 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON COULD TRIGGER A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES. A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WILL CLIP
NORTHERN NEVADA BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHILE COOLING
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA...SAVE FOR CENTRAL NEVADA. A FEW CLOUDS
ARE THERE OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF THE
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST DURING THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. NOT TOO MUCH IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE KEPT A LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF NEVADA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA. 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE
REGION...WITH RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE ENTERING
THE FRAY IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA...WITH GEFS ANOMALIES IN THE +2-3SD RANGE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY...AND
IT APPEARS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY BE IMPACTED. IT IS
A LITTLE TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME HOWEVER. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE MAINLY DRY...ITS BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND TO RESULT IN
MAX TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY /THE FIRST DAY
OF APRIL/. ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IN WAKE OF
THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR ALONG WITH
PRODUCING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN SNOW SHOWERS DURING THURSDAY. WITH H7 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
MINUS 11 DEG C TO MINUS 6 DEG C /NORTH TO SOUTH/ AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM IN THE 40S TO MID 50S THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY WITH
YET ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING ON ITS HEELS SATURDAY. WITH A SERIES
OF TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE A FEW DEGREES AOB NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
KELY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE
RECORDS BEING BROKEN.

           RECORD   FORECAST
AIRPORT    MONDAY    MONDAY

ELKO       76/1966     74
ELY        72/1966     74
EUREKA     73/1968     76
TONOPAH    77/1966     77
WINNEMUCCA 79/1966     73

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/89/89



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