Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 310900
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A HOT FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON TAP FOR NORTHERN
NEVADA...WITH ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO CENTRAL
NEVADA. INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NEVADA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND SATURDAY.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NEVADA THIS MORNING,
BUT AIRMASS IS STILL QUITE DRY ACROSS THE CWA, WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 20S. 00Z SOUNDING AT ELKO SHOWS THE PARCHED
BOUNDARY LAYER AS WELL, WITH PW ONLY ABOUT 1/3 INCH. 594 DM UPPER
HIGH, AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE, IS CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA THIS MORNING. MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE IS LURKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEVADA, WITH A PW NEAR ONE INCH AT LAS VEGAS. STUBBORN
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PREVENT ANY MEANINGFUL NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CWA TODAY. 00Z NAM/ECMWF DEPICT STRONG
594 DM RIDGE AXIS FROM GERLACH TO LAGES JUNCTION AT 5 PM, BLOCKING
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH, AND SQUASHING ANY ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. 00Z GFS DOES DEPICT PW
IMPROVING TO NEAR 0.75 INCH ACROSS THE SW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON,
ACROSS SOUTHERN LANDER, SW EUREKA, AND NW NYE COUNTIES.
INSTABILITY FOR THESE ZONES IS WEAK, WITH LIFTED INDEX BARELY -1,
SO LOW CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION CAN OVERCOME RIDGING ALOFT. NAM
SEEMS OPTIMISTIC SOME STORMS WILL FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NW NYE COUNTY AT LEAST, BUT KEPT COVERAGE LIMITED TO ISOLATED.

NORTHERN NEVADA WILL BAKE UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON, AND
RAISED ALL HIGH TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGH AT
ELKO THURSDAY WAS 95, AND THERE IS NO REASON IT WILL BE ANY COOLER
TODAY. EXPECTING A HIGH OF 97 AT ELKO, AND 100-102 IN THE TYPICAL
WARM SPOTS FROM BATTLE MOUNTAIN TO WINNEMUCCA. LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL NOT OFFER MUCH RELIEF.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED HOT AND DRY FOR MOST OF ELKO COUNTY, WITH
STUBBORN 592 DM UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR ELKO AT 5 PM. SOME WEAK
ISOLATED/DRY STORMS MAY TRY TO DRIBBLE INTO SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTY,
BUT ANY MEANINGFUL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE CONFINED TO ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. INSTABILITY IMPROVES IN
THESE ZONES, BUT STILL NOT GREAT, LIFTED INDEX OF -1 TO -2, WITH
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY FURTHEST FROM THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR
TONOPAH. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL AFFECT SW ZONES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND EXPANDED SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN LANDER, SOUTHERN EUREKA, AND ESPECIALLY NYE COUNTIES.
MOISTURE QUALITY IMPROVES ACROSS THESE ZONES, WITH PW TO NEAR ONE
INCH.

INTERESTING TO WATCH...WILL BE A CURIOUS LITTLE SHORTWAVE THAT
ORIGINATES IN SONORA MEXICO THIS MORNING, AND ROTATES NORTHWARD ON
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE, ENTERING THE SOUTHERN CWA SATURDAY
EVENING OR SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THIS SHORTWAVE,
JUST DISAGREEING ON THE TIMING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE
SOUTH, AND IT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.  TURNER



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS AGREE GENERALLY
ON A MONSOON FLOW SUNDAY WITH PW`S TO OR JUST OVER AN INCH. THIS
CONTINUES WEAKLY INTO MONDAY WHEN A DRY FLOW REPLACES THE MOIST. THE
MOISTURE MOVES GENERALLY NORTH AND BY MID WEEK IS LEAVING NEVADA.
STILL PATCHY SUFFICIENTLY MOIST SPOTS WILL PERSIST FOR LOW POPS AND
ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WILL BE SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST COULD BRING A
THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE KTPH TERMINAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TOWERING CU AND VIRGA NEAR KELY BUT LESS LIKELY NEAR
KEKO...AND LEAST LIKELY NEAR KWMC. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS NEAR STORMS
AND VIRGA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED CONVECTION CONFINED TO MAINLY FWZ 457
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AN ISOLATED CELL POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
FWZ 454 AND WESTERN FWZ 455. LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
KEEP COVERAGE ISOLATED TODAY, WITH LAL LIMITED TO 2-3.

HOT AND DRY AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES AND MIN RH OF 6-10%. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT UNDER STRONG RIDGE AXIS, REDUCING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

SATURDAY...EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO INCREASE TO SCATTERED
(LAL OF 4) ACROSS THE SAME AREAS...SOUTHERN FWZ 454, SW FWZ 455
AND MAINLY FWZ 457. CWR IMPROVES SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 50 AS PW
CLIMBS TO NEAR ONE INCH. ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RETURNING
MOISTURE, ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE LIKELY FURTHER
NORTH TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THIS ACTIVITY, SO KEPT LAL LIMITED TO 2.  TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/98/98/99


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