Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 292049

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
349 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Main severe weather threat and significant flash flood threat will
be the remainder of this afternoon into tonight. The warm front
continues to lift northwestward and was wavering from southwest/
south central IL into the St. Louis region into southeast MO at 20Z.
The air mass on the warm side of this boundary is becoming
increasingly unstable with SBCAPE of 1000+ J/KG, and as the
advancing QLCS interacts with the boundary/low level shear and
accompanying surface based instability, we should see our greatest
severe weather potential. The highest rainfall rates will also be
attendant with the ongoing thunderstorms across eastern MO and
eventually into southwest IL, and accordingly this will result in
the greatest flash flood threat.  In the wake of the QLCS/MCS, the
ascent will be less but the high PW air mass will contribute to
moderate rainfall rates and moderate amounts this evening into the
overnight hours in the large and growing trailing stratiform rain
region. Embedded convection in the trailing region could also
produce occasionally higher rain rates and thus a continued threat
of flash flooding.

The upper low/trof will lift northeast through the Plains on Sunday
with nearly vertically stacked lows and a east/northeast sweeping
cold front/occluded front. This front will be located near the MS
River by 00Z Monday. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
expected through the day along and ahead of the frontal boundary,
especially across eastern MO into western IL. Relatively quick
overall storm motions should keep high rainfall rates with the
thunderstorms short-lived at any given location. Some severe weather
potential will also exist with the storms across eastern MO into IL,
especially in the afternoon when instability should be maximized.

The flash flood watch and threat will continue until the rain ends
on Sunday evening, however the GREATEST flash flood threat will be
through tonight.


.LONG TERM...  (Sunday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

As vertically stacked system lifts northward through Iowa Sunday
night, cold front to slide east through forecast area, exiting after
06z Monday. Should see ongoing strong to severe storms weaken and
move out of area Sunday evening. Timing still looks good, so feel
that ending time of flash flood watch is good. Region to get dry
slotted briefly before wrap around showers move in on back side of

Colder air to filter in for Monday with highs only between 50 and 60
degrees. Isolated to scattered showers to move out by Monday

Dry conditions to return from Monday night through Tuesday before
next system moves in beginning Tuesday night. Overrunning showers to
develop and spread eastward north of a stationary front just south
of the MO/AR border. Activity to increase in coverage late Tuesday
night and Wednesday as several waves move along boundary. System to
exit region with precipitation tapering off during the day on
Thursday. Dry and moderating temperatures to return to the region
for the last part of the work week and into the weekend.


.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

The warm front remains across southeast MO and southern IL at
midday and is slowly lifting northward. There is now a temporary
lull in showers and thunderstorms across the metro St. Louis
region, while showers and thunderstorms continue to impact
central MO including KCOU and west central MO including KUIN. I
don`t foresee any big changes for KCOU and KUIN as showers and
thunderstorms will continue to impact those terminals with
predominately IFR flight conditions through the remainder of the
afternoon. Pending unforeseen earlier development, the next round
of showers and thunderstorms is expected to impact the metro St.
Louis terminals around 21Z. I think the overall amount of thunder
will diminish through the evening, with predominately rain/showers
late evening and overnight. Several waves of thunderstorms will
then be possible again on Sunday. Flight conditions will continue
to vary from MVFR to IFR.


Anticipating a lull in thunderstorms until around 21z, then
another round of strong thunderstorms with heavy rain and high
winds will impact the terminal. Thunderstorms should last into the
early evening and then steady showers/rain will continue from the
later evening through the overnight hours. Several waves of thunderstorms
will then be possible again on Sunday. Flight conditions will
continue to vary from MVFR to IFR.


Saint Louis     62  74  48  58 / 100  80  30  20
Quincy          48  68  45  51 / 100  80  30  30
Columbia        55  69  43  56 / 100  80  30  30
Jefferson City  58  71  44  58 / 100  80  30  30
Salem           66  77  50  57 / 100  80  50  10
Farmington      66  72  46  59 / 100  80  20  10


MO...Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for Audrain MO-Boone
     MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
     Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds
     MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-
     Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for Bond IL-Calhoun
     IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
     Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-
     Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.


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