Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 271134
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
534 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS ARE BUILDING INTO SE ARKANSAS FROM THE EAST...AND WILL
BE BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS HERE SHORTLY TO BOTH KPBF AND KLLQ.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOST TAF SITES...INCLUDING KHRO...KHOT...AND KADF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
850 MB LOW OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...WITH UPLIFT
NORTH OF IT ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM AND MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF ARKANSAS. OF COURSE...ANY PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW AVERAGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TODAY WILL BE COLDEST...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS STAYING BELOW FREEZING.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AS WELL...WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND
WEST. BY SUNDAY...PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...AS THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND LIKELY STALLED OUT NEAR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.

WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION. THE
FRONT WILL HIT PARALLEL UPPER FLOW AGAIN...STALL AND MOVE BACK TO
THE NORTH ON MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTER BEING FAIRLY IN LINE YESTERDAY...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO VARY A
BIT IN THE LONG TERM. LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH THE WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW. GFS AND THE GEM MOVE A SURFACE LOW TO THE NW OF
ARKANSAS A GOOD 18 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. AT THIS
POINT...TENDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST CONSISTENT AND LEAN TOWARDS THE
GFS AND GEM. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF THE STATE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
AGREE...PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     27  19  37  31 /  20  10  10  20
CAMDEN AR         34  25  45  37 /  20  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       24  16  33  30 /  30  20  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    30  22  39  35 /  20  20  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  30  22  40  34 /  20  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     33  25  45  37 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      29  21  39  34 /  30  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  25  17  34  30 /  30  20  20  20
NEWPORT AR        27  20  38  32 /  20  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     31  24  41  35 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   29  21  37  32 /  30  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         29  20  39  32 /  20  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      30  23  40  34 /  10  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




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