Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 220541 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1240 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY
MVFR WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND AFFECT MOST TAFS...WITH VERY
ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL BE LIMITED. AFTER SUNSET THE FOG
WILL THIN AND BREAK UP. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
THEN BECOME E TO SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON TUESDAY. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CU ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WITH A WEAK
SURFACE FLOW...AND MOIST NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS...AGAIN EXPECT AREAS
OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. WILL AMPLIFY DURING THIS PERIOD.
A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROMOTE THE APPROACH
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD.  SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY PROFILES SUGGEST A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. FORECAST PARAMETERS
DO NOT PARTICULARLY INDICATE ANY POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL.

GENERALLY UNDERCUT MOS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.
RECENT OUTPUT HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT OVERDONE...PERHAPS INDICATIVE OF
POOR SOIL MOISTURE REPRESENTATIONS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE PERIOD WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 90S BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. KEPT ONLY SLIGHT POPS IN FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHERE SOME
DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY INITIATE. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT IN SYNC...THUS KEPT
THE BROAD BRUSH APPROACH THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. ON ACCOUNT OF THE
RAIN CHANCES MONDAY...DROPPED TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






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