Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 300618
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
118 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

.AVIATION...30/06Z TAF CYCLE

High level moisture and light winds will prevail for most of the
period with the exception of the northern terminals. A weak front
will approach the north Tuesday afternoon with a small chances of
mainly afternoon showers. Winds to the south of the boundary will
be more southerly while to the north, winds will be more
westerly. Overall widespread VFR conditions are expected. Hi-Res
model data shows some patchy dense fog forming over SE AR before
dawn and have included MVFR/IFR vsbys. &&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 808 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017)

UPDATE...
Current forecast for tonight looks good and no significant changes
were made. With another weak boundary expected to affect mainly
northern Arkansas on Tuesday, precipitation chances were adjusted
somewhat based on latest models with some afternoon convection,
of the non severe variety, possible. Front will remain in the area
Wednesday as well for continuing precipitation chances.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 245 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday Night
Data from KLZK radar indicate very isolated, weak convective cells
across south central and southeast sections, in the vicinity of a
decaying frontal boundary. This activity is expected to diminish shortly
after sunset.

Another cold front, analyzed at 19z from central Missouri, to northern
Oklahoma, will continue to approach overnight. This feature will act
on weak instability on Tuesday afternoon to promote convection,
especially across northern sections. The magnitude of instability,
along with weak shear is expected to prohibit severe thunderstorm
development.

The front will be in the vicinity to promote additional,
scattered, weak convection for Wednesday. Again, severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase leading into the long
term as model solutions kick out a shortwave from the Southern
Plains. Severe potential looks limited due to the weak upper level
setup. The bigger threat will be the multiple rounds of rainfall. As
of now, the Northwest half of the state will be at greatest risk of
receiving the highest amount. Temperatures during this time period
will be just below seasonal averages on account of the rain and
cloud cover.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


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