Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 161147 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
545 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.Aviation...

Overall IFR flight conditions are expected to start the forecast
with areas of low clouds and areas of dense fog. Only patchy areas
of MVFR or VFR ceilings will be seen. Light rain and showers will be
seen over much of AR this morning, especially over western to
central AR. An isolated thunderstorm may also be seen as a storm
system approaches from the west. Winds will be east to southeast at
5 to 15 mph with some gusts to around 20 mph, then become more south
at 5 to 15 mph with some gusts to 20 mph. A low level jet has set up
and some wind shear will be seen at all Taf sites. Through the day
IFR conditions will slow raise to mainly MVFR conditions with
scattered VFR ceilings, as more rain, showers and scattered
thunderstorms develop as the system moves through. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 330 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection
today and through the week, any severe storm threat today, then a
temperature forecast.

Currently the warm front was near the Ar and La state-line, while
surface high pressure was centered to the northeast and was back
to Ar. A light northeast to east flow was over Ar, with
temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s. Lower level moisture levels
remained high with low clouds and fog, and areas of dense fog
across AR, with a dense fog advisory was in effect for much of
central and eastern Ar until Monday morning. The surface storm
system was west of Ar in north Tx to southeast Ok, with a cold
front southwest, while the upper low pressure was over the Tx and
Ok panhandles. It has developed an area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms over eastern OK to western AR, and moving to the
north, with a little movement east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night

The forecast will start with a high chance of rain, showers and
isolated thunderstorms over western areas of Ar, while showers and
isolated thunder with dense fog central to eastern locations.
Dense fog advisory will be in effect until 8 am, and after that
enough mixing should help raise visibilities above 1 mile. Models
take the upper low pressure system north-northeast, while a warm
front lifts through Ar, before the cold front gradually moves
east helping to develop the showers and isolated thunderstorms.
SPC has a marginal risk of severe storms today across central
areas, from southwest to northeast, over Ar and that is mainly
associated with front, some lift, while instability will be
limited due to on-going rain and clouds. Also the speed of the
cold front will be slow due to the upper low movement, and
dynamics limited in the southwest upper flow. An isolated strong
to severe storm, mainly over southern Ar, could develop later this
afternoon to evening, with winds and hail the main threat.

Tonight, the front slowly moves through with the highest chance of
rain along and ahead, while some lighter showers and rain behind
the front. The airmass behind the front is modified, and
temperatures will cool to closer to normal levels to a bit above.
On Tuesday, clouds will still be seen over Ar, but most of the
rain will have pushed east of Ar. Highs will be a bit above normal
levels. The front will stall over southeast Ar with a nearly
parallel flow aloft, and some rain chances will remain over mainly
southern Ar. Tuesday night, a low chance of rain will stay in the
forecast over southern Ar as the front washes out and some lift is
seen in the upper flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

The first of several upper level shortwave troughs will be
approaching the region at the start of the long term period...with
precip chances expanding back across the state starting Wed.
Increasing SW flow aloft will be seen on Wed...with moisture lifting
north over a stalled front to the south of AR. Persistent NE SFC
flow will keep moisture at bay for NRN/NERN portions of the state
initially...but will see the moisture win out as the shortwave gets
closer Wed night into Thu. Have both SHRA and TSRA during this
period given the upper shortwave trough moving east over AR.

Precip chance then decrease late Thu into Thu night as the upper
shortwave trough axis moves east of the state. Mostly dry conditions
will then be seen for late in the week into early in the weekend as
the second upper shortwave passes north of the state. However...will
see increasing POPs once again for Sat and Sun as the next...
stronger upper closed low moves east over the state at the end of
the forecast. Temps through the entire period look to remain above
normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     64  47  56  37 /  80  50  20  10
Camden AR         69  52  61  46 /  70  70  40  40
Harrison AR       63  39  50  34 /  70  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    65  46  57  40 /  80  50  20  30
Little Rock   AR  66  49  58  41 /  70  60  20  30
Monticello AR     69  58  62  48 /  50  70  50  40
Mount Ida AR      66  43  56  38 /  80  40  10  20
Mountain Home AR  62  41  51  34 /  80  20   0   0
Newport AR        64  50  57  39 /  70  60  20  10
Pine Bluff AR     68  54  60  45 /  60  70  40  40
Russellville AR   65  43  54  37 /  80  30  10  10
Searcy AR         66  48  57  39 /  80  70  20  10
Stuttgart AR      67  53  60  43 /  70  70  40  40
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Arkansas-
Baxter-Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-
Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Searcy-Sharp-
Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff.

&&

$$

Short Term...59 / Long Term...62



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