Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 171153
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
653 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...17/12Z TAF CYCLE

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WL CONT TO PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDS ACRS
MUCH OF THE FA THRU MID MRNG. A FEW LOCATIONS WL CONT TO SEE LIFR
CONDS FOR A COUPLE OF HRS EARLY. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDS LATER THIS
MRNG. ONGOING CONVECTION ACRS SRN MO COULD AFFECT KHRO AND KBPK
TOWARD MID TO LATE MRNG. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO
AFFECT NRN AR LATE TODAY AND EVENTUALLY PARTS OF WRN AR LATER
TNGT. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. RESULTS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD BY LATE FRIDAY. THE
HIGH SHOULD EXTEND TO ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL TEND TO WAFFLE AROUND THE STATE
TODAY AND TOMORROW. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND
MOVE ACROSS MAINLY NORTH ARKANSAS. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY MORNING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...AFFECTING CENTRAL
SECTIONS MORE SO. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING ANOTHER UPR SYS/CDFNT SEWD INTO THE FA ON
SUN...ALONG WITH A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF RUN
IS TRENDING SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO THE GFS/GEM. OPTED
STAY CLOSER TO THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS AND SEE HOW LATER MODEL RUNS
HANDLE OVERALL TRENDS. A SLOWER SOLUTION COULD LEAD TO A GREATER
CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WL FOLLOW THE
PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT TO CLOSE OUT OF THE PD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





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