Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 272247 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
547 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2016


Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...



Lights winds overnight will allow for some more fog at some of the
terminals...with the most dense fog near the lakes and bodies of
water. Any fog that is observed will dissipated within a few hrs
of sunrise on Fri...with VFR conditions expected through the rest
of this TAF period.




Main concerns in this forecast cycle are low. Some fog potential
each night. A temperature forecast for above and well above normal
temperatures. Then the next chance of rain toward the end of the

Fog and stratus held over northern AR this morning more than
expected, but did finally thin and dissipate around noon. and
will add patchy to the tonight forecast. Winds have remained light
today, while temperatures are warming to the upper 70s to lower
80s. Exception of course is northern AR where the clouds and fog
held on through the morning. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny
conditions have been seen into the afternoon. The weak frontal
boundary over southern MO has only oscillated a bit near the AR
and MO state-line. Aloft, the upper ridge was building into the
region from the west.

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday Night

As mentioned, expect some fog again tonight and will add to
forecast. Mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight with lows mainly
in the in the 50s. Dry and warm weather is expected Friday and
over the weekend, as the upper high pressure ridge becomes the
dominate weather feature affecting the region. The surface high
pressure system will be off to the east, a south wind flow will
gradually set up into AR, and slowly raise moisture levels into
next week.

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday Night

Warm and dry weather will continue into the first half of the
extended term, as a flat upper level ridge of high pressure
persists over the area.

Main focus right now is on the next upper level trough and
associated surface front that will be approaching the area toward
the latter half of the period. Models are showing a trof over the
swrn US developing a closed low and moving eastward across the
southern plains. I would anticipate that a few shortwaves will eject
out of this system prior to its arrival, and with a sfc front
approaching I have went with some relatively low POPs starting on
Wednesday and continuing through Thursday night.

As usual, models are having difficulty handling this system coming
in across the swrn US, and my confidence in the timing of this
system is not very high right now. Most likely it will approach the
area beyond the extended forecast term, likely on Friday or


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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