Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 272311 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
511 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS FOR MOST
SITES...WITH CONDITIONS AS LOW AS LIFR EXPECTED. BPK AND HRO COULD
EVEN SEE SOME PL AND SN MIX IN WITH THE RAIN THIS EVENING...WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIP TRENDING DOWNWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THIS REGION
OF THE STATE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT THE PRECIP CHANCES TO PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING SUN...ENDING FROM NW TO SE BY THE AFTERNOON
HRS. DO THINK THERE WILL BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES
DURING THE SUN AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NWRN
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

LATEST SFC DATA PLACES CDFNT ACRS SERN AR...WITH A DVLPG SFC LOW
ACRS THE SERN CORNER OF THE STATE. CURRENTLY SEEING ANOTHER BAND OF
RAIN/EMBEDDED TSRA WORK NEWD ACRS CNTRL AND SERN AR. SOME PTCHY LGT
RAIN WERE ALSO NOTED OVR NWRN AR. TEMPS HAD FALLEN BACK INTO THE 30S
AND 40S ACRS THE NWRN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH 50S AND LOWER 60S
ELSEWHERE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WL CONT TO WORK EWD EARLY NGT AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE SE OF AR BY EARLY SUN MRNG. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT
TO BRING A FEW MORE IMPULSES NEWD...AND PRODUCE ADDITIONAL PDS OF
RAIN AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE SFC BNDRY. WL CONT TO INDC HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE SERN HALF OF THE FA THRU MUCH OF TNGT...WITH LESSER
CHCS AS YOU WORK NWWD.

REGARDING ANY WINTRY PRECIP...THE COLDER AIRMASS WL CONT TO DEEPEN
THIS EVENING OVR NRN AND WRN AR. THIS WL ALLOW SOME WET SNOW AND/OR
SLEET TO MIX WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES...ESP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP
TAPERS OF LATE THIS EVENING. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ACCUMULATION...
ALTHOUGH SOME GRASSY AREAS MAY SEE A LGT DUSTING.

EXPECT RAINFALL TO LINGER ACRS CNTRL AND SERN AR THRU TNGT AND MUCH
OF SUN AS ANOTHER SFC WV TRACKS NEWD ALONG THE FNTL BNDRY. THE
PRECIP WL SLOLY DIMINISH FM THE NW SUN AFTN AND EVENING THE CDFNT
WORKS FURTHER EWD AWAY FM THE REGION. HIGH PRES WL BLD INTO THE MID
SOUTH FOR MON AND TUE...RESULTING IN DRY AND COOL CONDS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD AIR OVER
THE STATE. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE NORTH...AND FALL
THROUGH THE COLD AIR. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE
FREEZING DUE TO THE SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY...BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND
TIMING...HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...AND WILL WAIT FOR
MORE CONSISTENCY BEFORE INCREASING POPS. THERE ARE MANY DETAILS
STILL TO BE WORKED OUT...AND PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE NOT SET IN
STONE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AS MORE DATA COMES IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     32  42  28  45 /  80  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         39  46  33  51 / 100  60  10  10
HARRISON AR       25  39  26  44 /  60  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    34  46  30  48 /  70  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  36  44  31  47 /  90  30  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     40  45  34  50 / 100  70  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      29  46  28  49 /  70  10   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  28  40  27  44 /  60  10   0  10
NEWPORT AR        34  42  29  45 / 100  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     38  44  32  48 / 100  50  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   29  45  28  48 /  60  10   0  10
SEARCY AR         33  43  28  46 /  90  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      37  43  31  46 / 100  40  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62




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