Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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347
FXUS64 KLZK 280542 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1240 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.Aviation...

Overall VFR flight conditions will start the forecast, expect
northern Taf sites where MVFR ceilings will start. Overnight,
additional areas of MVFR ceilings will be possible and affect most
Taf sites. Very isolated IFR conditions may also be seen. Winds will
be west to northwest at less than 10 mph or light and variable.
Winds on Tuesday will become east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph. The
MVFR conditions will last on Tuesday through mid-day, then gradually
thin in the afternoon. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued  242 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday Night
Data from local radars indicate a few convective cells remaining
in the forecast area, with much more widespread activity noted to
the east of the area. Any remaining cells will diminish shortly
after sunset.

Cold front now pushing into central sections of the state is
expected to stall across southern sections late tonight. This
feature, while weakening, may still be able to focus widely
scattered convection Tuesday afternoon.

Another strong upper level system will approach the mid-south on
Wednesday. Some similarities are noted between forecast model
output, and characteristics of the system that affected the region
late Friday. More moisture is forecast to be associated with this
particular system, and much more precipitation is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday
Even though convection will be winding down, rain chances will
linger into the long term as moisture wraps around the departing
system. Additional rainfall amounts will be under half an inch. By
the weekend, sunshine will make an appearance as ridging returns.
Temperatures through the weekend will be in the 60s/70s with
overnight lows in the 40s/50s. Model spread increases towards the
end of the weekend as the next round of convection unfolds. ECMWF is
a bit more progressive pushing the bulk of the rainfall through on
Sunday night, while the GFS holds most of the convection back until
Monday. Went with a blend for now, staying conservative with the
rainfall amounts.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$



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