Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 292253
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
553 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low end VFR clouds will gradually dissipate through 30/03Z, along
with light showers associated with same. Northerly winds will also
be on the decrease during the same time frame. VFR conditions will
prevail tonight and Thursday, although southwest to west winds
will increase and become gusty between 30/16Z to 30/19Z at all
area terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 213 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

Looks like above normal temperatures are in the offing Thursday
and Friday as surface lee troughing and low level thermal ridging
develop ahead of the next Pacific upper level storm system. Breezy
conditions will develop Thursday afternoon in the Guadalupe
Mountains with breezy to very windy conditions expected to develop
Friday across southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas. As the
upper low approaches Friday afternoon high winds will be possible
in the Guadalupe Mountains. A High Wind Watch has been issued for
that location Friday afternoon.

A dryline and dry Pacific cold front will surge east on Saturday
just ahead of the slow moving upper low. High temperatures will
cool considerably behind the front but should still remain above
normal.

The upper low will approach west Texas Saturday night and Sunday
in tandem with a northern stream cold front. The interaction of
lift associated with the upper low with the surface cold front
will produce a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly
across west Texas. Temperatures Sunday behind the front are
expected to be below normal.

Yet another Pacific upper low is forecast to track toward the
plains next Monday and Tuesday. This system looks like it will
take a more northern track with above normal temperatures and
windy conditions expected and no precipitation.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire wx will return to the area Thursday/Friday. Thursday
critical conditions will be confined to the GDP Mtns, but expand
to include SE NM and most of the Trans Pecos Friday when the driest
(3% RH) and windiest conditions are expected. Forecast fuel conditions,
as seen thru the ERC-G, will be into the 90th percentile, the driest
of the fire season. There`s a chance that the watch for Friday may
need to be expanded east as significant fire potential will correspondingly
increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  82  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       40  86  50  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         50  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  47  86  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 43  74  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          41  77  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          34  75  35  81 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  82  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         45  82  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           41  84  48  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Southeast Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$



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