Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 221129
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
629 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Look for mainly IFR ceilings this morning at the west Texas and
southeast New Mexico terminals. Some fog is also possible but
extensive low clouds should help limit its occurrence. Expect VFR
conditions to develop at the terminals around 22/18z. A strong
upper level disturbance will move into southeast New Mexico and
west Texas late this afternoon and this evening, bringing with it
either prob30 or tempo MVFR conditions in thunderstorms with brief
gusty winds.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Current radar shows a little convection north of Lea County this
morning, but much more is expected later today as an upper level
trough dives southeast out of the Rockies. Instability and shear
are enough that some storms will be severe with the greatest
threat area being the northern and eastern Permian Basin. This
activity will move east out of the area this evening before the
trough pushes a cold front south later tonight with more rainfall
expected along and behind this boundary.

Clouds and rain kept the high in Midland at an astonishing 71
degrees yesterday, and while it should be warmer today we are
still expecting highs to be well below normal again. Cold air
advection Tuesday will again keep highs in the 60s and 70s
everywhere except in the Big Bend. Enjoy this cool weather while
you can as a dampened west coast ridge moves into the Central
Plains Thursday, increasing westerly flow and causing
temperatures to soar to their highest levels of the year taking us
from one extreme to the other. Temps will diminish Friday, but
only by a couple of degrees and still above normal. The westerly
flow will also end rain chances through the weekend.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  60  74  53 /  30  80  50  10
Carlsbad                       85  57  74  50 /  50  30  20   0
Dryden                         82  66  81  56 /  20  30  40  10
Fort Stockton                  85  58  72  54 /  30  50  40  10
Guadalupe Pass                 83  56  67  52 /  30  10  10   0
Hobbs                          75  51  67  47 /  50  60  30  10
Marfa                          83  50  74  43 /  30  30  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           77  58  72  52 /  30  70  40  10
Odessa                         77  57  72  53 /  30  70  40  10
Wink                           84  58  72  52 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/12


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