Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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365
FXUS64 KMAF 190516
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1216 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow, w/plenty
of high clouds.  Nocturnal LLJ will keep winds up Thu night.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 254 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A fairly quiet weather pattern the past few days will become more
active this weekend into next week as a series of cold fronts move
through.

Weak, zonal flow across the region and southerly winds at the
surface have pushed temperatures well into the 80`s already this
afternoon. A weak disturbance over AZ will move east and reach the
area sometime tomorrow. Clouds will increase overnight ahead of this
system, likely keeping temperatures much warmer Thursday morning
than what we have seen earlier in the week. Clouds will stick around
much of the day tomorrow which should help high temperatures fall
back a few degrees from what we are seeing today. We also can`t rule
out a few showers and storms, especially across SE NM. Rain chances
will decrease from west to east Thursday night into Friday as the
disturbance moves away from the area.

On Friday an upper trough is expected to move onshore in the Pacific
NW. Ahead of this system temperatures will warm back above normal
both Friday and Saturday across the area. As the upper trough moves
across the Plains this weekend, it will drag a cold front through
the area Saturday night. We could see a storm or two along the front
across the far eastern Permian Basin, but the best forcing will be
further east. The cooler airmass behind this front will not last as
upper ridging briefly builds in Monday from the west. Yet another
cold front is expected Tuesday as a large upper trough develops over
the Great Lakes. It looks like only a glancing blow for our area
though as temperatures warm back above normal by the end of next
week with dry conditions continuing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  62  80  64 /  10  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       75  55  86  58 /  30  40  10   0
Dryden                         77  63  81  63 /   0  10  20  10
Fort Stockton                  79  60  87  62 /  10  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 75  56  81  58 /  30  50  10   0
Hobbs                          74  55  80  56 /  20  30  10  10
Marfa                          81  51  83  53 /  10  30  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           75  62  82  63 /  10  20  10  10
Odessa                         75  62  81  62 /  10  20  10  10
Wink                           78  58  85  59 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/33/44



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