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078
FXUS64 KMEG 260210
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
910 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this evening places a weak cold
front from the Ohio Valley back through Southern Missouri and
Southeast Kentucky. Skies are clear to mostly clear across much
of the Mid-South with temperatures as of 8 pm CDT in the 70s at
most locations.

Latest short term models including the HRRR indicate a potential
for a few rain showers to occur late tonight into Morning across
portions of northeast Arkansas. I think this will be mostly
occurring on Monday and will trim rain chances back overnight.
Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast is in good shape overall.

CJC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 624 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

UPDATE...
Updated to include the 00z aviation discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
With the exception of locations southeast of Tupelo, the Mid-
South is experiencing a gorgeous afternoon with plenty of
sunshine, pleasant temperatures, and low humidity. Pesky clouds
remain over locations from Southern Calhoun to Southern Itawamba
Counties. The clouds should clear by the early evening hours.
Expect tranquil weather for the CWA for the evening hours. By
midnight, clouds associated with a shortwave currently over Kansas
will begin to push into Northeast Arkansas. Chances for showers
will occur after midnight for portions of Northeast Arkansas and
the Missouri Bootheel. The showers may continue into early Monday
afternoon before dissipating.

With the area remaining in northwest flow aloft, another shortwave
will bring chances for showers Monday Night into Tuesday across
the northern half of the CWA. The upper flow will become more
zonal by Tuesday evening ending the chances for showers.

SFC high pressure will shift east Tuesday Night which will allow
SFC winds to turn around to the south. The southerly winds will
bring higher dewpoints back into the area resulting in higher
humidity.

Chances for diurnal convection will begin to occur Thursday
afternoon across portions of North Mississippi. Chances will
spread to the entire Mid-South on Friday.

Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will come next weekend
as a cold front moves into the Mid-South and stalls out over the
region.

As for temperatures, highs will be in the 80s this week. Lows
will generally be in the 60s early in the week increasing to the
lower 70s by the end of the week.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
/00z TAFs/

Clear skies this evening will give way to increasing mid-level
clouds as an upper-level jet max approaches. VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF period with light and variable winds
overnight becoming northeast at 5-7 kts on Monday. A few showers
are possible from the mid-level cloud cover north of I-40, so a
VCSH group was included at KJBR after 13z and MKL after 16z.

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$