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000
FXUS64 KMEG 300832
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
332 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A large upper level low pressure system has been nearly stationary
over the Ohio River valley the past two days, after dropping south
from the Great Lakes earlier this week. This feature will move
little today, but begin a return to the north over the weekend. As
this system departs, a upper level ridge over the plains will
edge east into the MS River valley, returning above normal
temperatures to the Midsouth by Sunday.

The warm temps will continue early next week, as the upper ridge
axis translates to a lower MS River valley/Great Lakes position by
Tuesday. To our west, a deep upper low over the Rockies will eject
into the Plains by Tuesday night. Downstream height falls will
occur over the Midsouth, with a tightening low level pressure
gradient and strengthening onshore flow during the midweek.

As the upper low lifts into the northern Plains/upper MS River
valley, an associated trof axis and surface cold front will lift
through the Midsouth on Thursday. Prefrontal precipitable water
values will not be especially high, around 1 to 1.25 inches, but
sufficient to support a few showers and thunderstorms with a
daytime frontal passage.

The latter half of next week and following weekend will likely
see little to no rainfall and a continuation of above normal
temps, under a broad low amplitude upper level height ridge.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions should continue for most of the forecast period.
Some low clouds are expected to move into the region overnight
which may produce some IFR ceilings at times. Winds will be
mainly from the north at around 5 knots overnight. Winds will be
northwest at 5 to 10 knots on Friday.

ARS

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$