Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 051444
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
944 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR INCREASE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS HAS QUICKLY FORMED OVER THE MIDSOUTH
SINCE SUNRISE...LEADING TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AN EXTENSIVE CU
FIELD WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST WORDING ACCORDINGLY.

STILL APPEARS THAT SOUTHERN MIDSOUTH COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MIDSUMMER PATTERN
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WSR-88D PROFILERS
SHOWED AND UPPER LOW OVER MIDDLE TN...LIFTING EAST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL
AR...SHOWING LITTLE MOVEMENT.

TODAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LOW LIFT INTO EASTERN KY...WITH GRADUALLY
WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING OVER THE MIDSOUTH. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL LIKELY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST OR
REDEVELOP INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE APPROACH OF AN ADDITIONAL
WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PROVIDE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OF
THE WEEK...AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW DROPS INTO THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY. AREAS NEAR THE I70 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE THE
BULK OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH...AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I40 CORRIDOR LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE
PORTION OF THE WEEK...WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK LIFTING WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL FALL DOWN TO OR BELOW
THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER A TWO WEEK PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KTUP WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING.
CONDITIONS WILL HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 18Z. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED TS. ADDED VCTS
AT ALL 4 SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS STORMS
DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 18Z. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS FOG DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL BE
S-SW 5-8KTS DURING THE DAY BEFORE DECREASING TO 2-4KTS OVERNIGHT.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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