Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 280424
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1124 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 907 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

Skies are mostly clear over much of the forecast area this evening
with temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s. All of the
thunderstorm activity that was over the forecast area this
afternoon has dissipated. WIth clear skies, some fog may develop
overnight. Have adjusted low temperatures some overnight.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

Quieter on radar this afternoon compared to yesterday...with
activity generally to the east and southeast of Memphis.
Temperatures were generally in the upper 80s and low 90s with heat
indices of a 100F to 103F degrees at a few locations.

For the remainder of this weekend through Wednesday...Upper level
ridge over the Mid Atlantic will move little over the next 36
hours before the current shortwave in the Upper Plains flattens
it out and a new high center/ridge forms in the Plains and
Mississippi Valley. Weather in the Midsouth will see very little
change each day...with the slight chance for a late day shower or
storm and temperatures just above normal. Winds will be light
through the period with a good chance for late night patchy fog
over areas that receive rainfall. Plan on keeping the threat for a
storm or two to pulse up strong during the afternoon hours.

Thursday through the beginning of the Labor Day Holiday Weekend.
The extended models show the Midsouth dry overall...with the
ECMWF developing a tropical cyclone in the central Gulf and the
GFS with a westward progressive shear axis along the coast. High
pressure will remain over central U.S. with light northeast
surface winds and light northwest winds aloft. Either solution
will keep temperatures for the Midsouth in the upper 80s or low
90s. Dewpoints will likely drop into the upper 60s for
most...keeping heat indices below 100F. Slight rain chances could
invade parts of north Mississippi by Saturday as increased
midlevel moisture along the Gulf Coast surges northwest.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...06z TAF Set

MVFR or even IFR vis possible tonight through around sunrise at
MKL...TUP and maybe JBR. Otherwise...expect light winds
tonight...and east to southeast wind tomorrow around 5kt with VFR
conditions.

30

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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