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000
FXUS64 KMEG 130508
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1108 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 918 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013/

FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK ONLY ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY ENOUGH
TO RESULT IN MOSTLY RAIN BY THE TIME SHOWERS BEGIN...ALTHOUGH A
BRIEF MIX IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE NOON. RAIN IS
EXPECTED AREA WIDE BY SUNSET.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013/

SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SLIDE EAST TONIGHT KEEPING SKIES CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

BY FRIDAY MORNING...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE LOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION MAY START TO FALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS FRIDAY MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES MAY
STILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS IT MAY
BRIEFLY START AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET BUT SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN BY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS QUICKLY EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REACH EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY RAIN CHANCE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH ALL OF THE RAIN LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY BUT RATHER CHILLY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. BY MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN AS DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT THURSDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z. THEREAFTER...PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO KJBR BETWEEN 21-00Z WHICH
WILL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION COULD START OUT AS RAIN
MIXED WITH SLEET THUS WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF RAPL WORDING TO THE
TAF. BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...RAIN WILL MOVE INTO OTHER TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD AND BY
4-6Z...EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE EITHER IFR OR MVFR WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN OCCURRING. LIGHT OR CALM WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME SSE OR S AROUND 7 KTS AFTER 15Z.
DIRECTION WILL TURN MORE TO SE AFTER 00Z AS SPEEDS GENERALLY
DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

KRM

&&


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  28  47  38  48 /   0  50  90  30
MKL  19  45  35  47 /   0  40  90  40
JBR  22  38  33  43 /   0  60  90  20
TUP  26  50  41  53 /   0  20  90  50

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$