Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 250855
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
255 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS WERE TAKING THEIR SWEET OLD TIME EXITING THE MIDSOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES A GOOD TEN DEGREES
WARMER THAN ADJACENT AREAS TO THE WEST. WINDS WERE GENERALLY SOUTH
THROUGH WEST AT AROUND 5 KTS.

CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO CHANGE NEEDED THROUGH MOST OF
THIS PERIOD AS THE REGION EXPERIENCES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE MOIST UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW. DESPITE SOME PATCHY
FOG EARLY TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...AIDED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS. TOMORROW THICKER CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE PLAINS.
STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY WAA SHOWER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES
IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY AND MONDAY...A VERY UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR THE LAST
WEEKEND OF 2014. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT...WITH THE PASSAGE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH PUSHED TO LATER ON
SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL ADVECT
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF...WITH TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES
RIDING OVER THE BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WITH THE
MIDSOUTH REMAINING ON THE COLD SIDE EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...A RETURN OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...AND PERIODS OF
LIGHT AND MODERATE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
ON SATURDAY...CLOSE TO NORMAL SUNDAY...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE HIGHEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE FORTY. BY MONDAY NIGHT IT APPEARS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN JUST ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER 36 TO 48 HOUR
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY AND
COOL. DESPITE THIS FEEL THAT THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW COMBINED
WITH AN UNCHANGING SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION
MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
COOLING A FEW DEGREES MORE EACH DAY. EXTENDED MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN JET BRANCH TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEW YEAR`S
DAY. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE NOW HAS BEEN PUSHED OUT ABOUT 24
HOURS. WITH IT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK INTO THE
MIDSOUTH OF WHICH SOME MAY BE A COMBINATION OF BOTH LIQUID AND
FROZEN OVER THE NORTH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND SUBSEQUENT MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AT
MKL/TUP BETWEEN 25/09-12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...INCREASE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 7-11
KTS AT MEM/MKL/TUP AND BETWEEN 12-14KTS WITH GUSTS TO 22KTS AT
JBR...THEN BACK SOUTH AND DECREASE TO 4-7 KTS AFTER 26/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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