Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 281135
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
535 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for aviation discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017/

..Severe weather expected mainly tonight through Wednesday
morning across the Mid-South...

Skies are currently cloudy across much of the forecast area with
temperatures in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. Scattered
showers are moving across the forecast area at this time. This
activity has the possibility of producing small hail but no severe
weather is expected with this activity.

Currently, a warm extends across extreme southern Arkansas through
central Mississippi and into southern Alabama. This front will
move through the forecast area later this morning and early
afternoon. This will help produce more showers and thunderstorms
ahead of the warm front mainly during the morning hours. Behind
the warm front, temperatures will be warm this afternoon with
highs in the mid to upper 70s.

By tonight, a cold front will sweep through the southern plains
and move through Arkansas during the overnight hours. There is a
potential for thunderstorms to develop across Arkansas during the
late afternoon and early evening hours. If thunderstorms develop
during this time, they could be isolated supercell variety which
would mean that the threat of tornadoes and large hail would be
greater with these storms. Otherwise, thunderstorms are expected
to develop ahead of the cold front and move across the region
starting later tonight and continuing through the overnight hours.
Thunderstorms that form ahead of the cold front could also become
severe with damaging winds and hail being the main threat.
Temperatures will be quite mild tonight with lows Wednesday
morning in the low to mid 60s.

On Wednesday, the cold front will move quickly through the
forecast area. More thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front
with severe weather possible over portions of northeast
Mississippi with damaging winds and hail as the main threats.
Temperatures will be fairly mild on Wednesday with highs from the
mid 60s to mid 70s.

High pressure will start to build into the area Wednesday night.
Cooler and drier air will move into the region with lows Thursday
morning ranging from the mid 30s to around 40 degrees. Dry
weather and near normal temperatures will continue for Thursday
through Saturday.

By Saturday night, winds will shifted to the south bringing warmer
air into the region for Saturday night and Sunday. A new cold
front will reach northwest Arkansas by Monday morning. This will
mean a slight chance of showers for the forecast area for Sunday
night and a chance of thunderstorms for Monday. Temperatures will
be above normal for both Sunday night and Monday as well.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

A warm front is pushing north into the area resulting in widespread
IFR conditions and the increasing coverage of shras and tsras.
The front will push north of the region later this morning and
shras and tsras will push NE of the area. Cigs will gradually
improve to MVFR later this morning and then to VFR this afternoon
with gusty south winds. VFR conditions should last into the
evening before lower clouds move back in overnight along with the
threat of tsras as a cold front approaches.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$


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