Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 261734 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1234 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...

SEVERAL UPDATES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. FIRST...GIVEN
THE NEGLIGIBLE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL FORCING...REMOVED THUNDER
FROM THE FORECAST. DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEFT A CHANCE OF THUNDER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS A LONGER DURATION
OF SOLAR HEATING AND BETTER MOISTURE SUPPORT THIS.
SECOND...ADJUSTED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS SIGNIFICANTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR FRONTAL TIMING AND NON-DIURNAL TREND. HIGHS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REACHED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WESTERN
TENNESSEE WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
ECHOES APPARENT ON CURRENT RADAR SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE MOISTURE EXITS
THE MID-SOUTH.

TVT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM PARIS TENNESSEE TO JUST
SOUTH OF JONESBORO ARKANSAS. LOOKING AT LATEST KNQA RADAR...MOST
OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOW POST-FRONTAL.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE COURSE
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY BEHIND THE FRONT
THUS MANY HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE
A FEW HOURS OF WARMING WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE MID 60S.

LINGERING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL ROLL INTO THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF PUSHES INTO THE AREA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD EVEN OCCUR ACROSS RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES
SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PROVIDE FOR A CHILLY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S.

LINGERING CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER TROF WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
EXPECT ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE EAST OF THE CWA. THESE CLOUDS
WILL PUSH EAST BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA
OVER AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. ONLY AREAS NEAR PARIS TENNESSEE MAY
SEE TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE 32 DEGREE MARK.

HAVE INCREASED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE ALL MODELS SHOWING A POTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER RAW AND CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS CLOUDS CLEAR AND WINDS
TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT HIGHS TO RETURN TO THE 60S.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON IF THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA LIKE THE GFS SUGGESTS OR PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE
CWA LIKE THE ECMWF SHOWS. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...THE BEGINNING TO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND CLOUDY WHILE THE ECMWF
DRYS THINGS OUT FOR TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY...THE MODEL BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE TIME PERIOD WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

POST FRONTAL IFR CIGS AND OCNL -DZ WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
MVFR CIGS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AS DRIER CONTINENTAL
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE SPREADS IN AND DEEPENS. TRANSITION TO MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY VFR WILL ARRIVE LATEST AT TUP...LIKELY WELL AFTER
SUNSET.

LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE LATE EVENING MEM
CARGO ARRIVAL PUSH.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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