Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 290514
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1114 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SHOULD BE CLOUDY BY 4-6 AM CST. WILL ADJUST SKY CONDITION TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SUNNY SKIES REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS IN
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL
MUCH MILDER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH COLDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. WITH THE MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE
THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE REACHING THE GULF COAST SO ONLY
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE ANY LIGHT RAIN
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH WHICH
WILL START A WARMING TREND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE REGION THURSDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY SURGE NORTH AND INTO THE MIDSOUTH AFTER 29/09Z. CIGS WILL
DROP TO IFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO
MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE TAFS
ATTM. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM THE SOUTH AFT 30/00Z AT
KMEM AND KTUP.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 10-12 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
12-18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY 29/15Z. CONTINUED MENTION OF WIND
SHEAR AT 1500 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 29/12Z AT ALL SITES.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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