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000
FXUS64 KMEG 012345 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
545 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAVE REMAINED
NEARLY STEADY WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S PREVALENT ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND LOWER 40S TO LOWER/MIDDLE
50S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE MID SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND YET ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WHICH COULD
BE SIGNIFICANT ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THIS AFTERNOON/S
FORECAST.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. AS TEMPERATURES COOL LATER TONIGHT...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE MID SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE LIMITED. CONFIDENCE ISN/T PARTICULARLY HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
MOMENT TO CONSIDER HEADLINES BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR SHORT TERM TRENDS AND ASSESS THE NEED FOR ONE IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY
BUT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTH...MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-40. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH NORTH ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OCCURRING DURING
THE EVENING AND GRADUALLY RISING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND
KEPT OVERALL THUNDERSTORMS TO MINIMAL MENTION. CONFIDENCE IN
STRONG/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW ALSO. TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF
I-40.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS WEEK WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM AS ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDER
OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH THE NAM/CANADIAN BEING SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM
SIDE. OPTED TO USE THE ECMWF AS THE MODEL OF CHOICE AS IT SEEMS TO
BE BLENDING THE SOLUTIONS THE BEST AT THIS TIME. SEVERAL
PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE EXPECTED INCLUDING RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW. EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS MOMENT DUE TO
MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MAY BE
FORTHCOMING IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. STAY TUNED...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A MEM-MKL LINE SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH TUP THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
REINFORCE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL INVERSION...KEEPING IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. NEAR FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS NEAR MKL
PRESENT A BRIEF FZRA CHANCE TOWARD 12Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$