Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 260939
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
339 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...WE WILL SEE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE TODAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
QUICKLY MOVES EAST AND PRODUCES A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST
THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...WEST
OF I-65 BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS STAY A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT...PUSHING OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ITS ATTENDANT
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT IT WILL REINFORCE THE COOL
AND DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. 34/JFB

THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS SUNNY AS A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 50S INTERIOR TO CLOSE TO 60 ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES. HIGHS
WILL BE SOME 4 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL ON AVERAGE.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH TO BE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
AT TIMES. WITH CLEAR SKIES...WIND BECOMING LIGHT...AND DRY
CONDITIONS...RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES AID IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT DROPPING OFF TO FREEZING OVER THE INTERIOR. LOWER HALF
OF THE 40S AT THE BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...TROF IN THE HIGH LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE EAST COAST...TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...MOVES EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING NORTHWARD OFF THE GULF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...BECOMING POSITIONED FROM OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE HIGH REMAINS IN
CONTROL TO BEGIN THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST...A LIGHT RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF SUPPORTS A RISING TREND IN
SURFACE BASED MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND
PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT ADVECTIVE TYPE FOG/LOW STRATUS
PATTERN IS QUITE POSSIBLE AT THE LATTER END OF THE OUTLOOK. DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY/SUNDAY
TO 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOWS TRENDING UPWARD WITH
EACH NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES LOW. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. PLAN TO LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS EXPIRE AT 6AM...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR OBS TO SEE IF IT WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO. A
LIGHT W-SW FLOW DEVELOPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH QUICKLY
SHIFTS EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH WEST WINDS SHARPLY INCREASING BY
LATE EVENING...WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE AL/NW FL GULF WATERS FROM 9PM TONIGHT UNTIL 9AM
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN AREA BAYS TONIGHT.
SEAS DIMINISH THIS MORNING BUT WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK TO 3-6 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST FAR OFFSHORE. WINDS DIMINISH BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OVER THE
OPEN GULF THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

WINDS SUBSIDE AND BECOME EASTERLY ON FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 34/JFB



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY DAY IS FORECAST TODAY WITH LOWEST AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO A RANGE OF 25 TO 30% FOR MOST OF
THE AREA AND LOW ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS (ERC). HOWEVER...RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET AS NEED A LONG DURATION OF LOWER
HUMIDITY VALUES COMBINED WITH A CONCURRENT 20 FOOT WIND SPEED IN
EXCESS OF 15 MPH AND ERC VALUES >= 26 FOR ISSUANCE. /10


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  39  59  34  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   62  42  59  35  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      61  46  58  44  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   61  36  56  30  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  64  36  57  29  61 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      61  36  55  30  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   64  39  60  32  60 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$







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