Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 050223 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
923 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER INLAND AREAS WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS BY THE PREDAWN HOURS AS A WEAK 850MB LOW OVER SE LOUISIANA
SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL AREAS BY
DAYBREAK. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING AT
09Z...ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL AL...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
FURTHER ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AFTER SUNRISE. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EARLY EVENING RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION QUICKLY
DIMINISHING AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING. A BROAD AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SE LOUISIANA
WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THE DAY. 34/JFB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY]...AREA RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND TAKING ADVANTAGE OF ANY AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY. GOES SOUNDER
IMAGERY INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.8 INCHES
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG. EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO WANE IN
HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IS USED.

SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING...WE`RE CONTINUING TO WATCH THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE RIDGE
TONIGHT...BASICALLY RIDING ALONG A FRONT AS IT HEADS SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN CARVING
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CLOSE TO HOME.

A SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2 INCHES WILL BE SEEN AREA-WIDE...WITH VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES (MAYBE A TAD HIGHER) EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES.  THIS...COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED FORCING PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP.  IN GENERAL...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OR MOVE ONSHORE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASED CLOUDS/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD TEMPER TEMPERATURES
A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.  WITH THE EXPECTED DELAY IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MORE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S WILL LIKELY AGAIN BE SEEN.  EVEN
WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT 105
OR LOWER. /BUTTS

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE A TROUGH
IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE REGION WILL REMAIN
SITUATED AT THE BASE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE AREA...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY
THURSDAY. MODELED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL SOAR UP TO AROUND 2
INCHES ON THURSDAY.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPULSE DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIAL CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG STORMS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGHER CAPE
VALUES AND THE IMPULSE DROPPING INTO THE AREA. BUMPED UP POPS TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HIGHER COVERAGE IN STORMS THROUGH
THE DAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM SKY ROCKETING DURING THE DAY.
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 102.
WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...MUGGINESS WILL
RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 70S
INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. KEEPING POPS ELEVATED ON FRIDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASE IN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF
THIS SYSTEM. BEYOND FRIDAY...EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

STICKING WITH PREVIOUS SHIFTS THINKING WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUMPED UP DAYTIME HIGHS BY A FEW
DEGREES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE NEARS THE
AREA. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 90S INLAND...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS BREAKING THE CENTURY
MARK...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MID 90S ALONG THE COAST. HEAT
INDICES WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BEGINNING SATURDAY...MORE
WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH INDICES OF 107-109 INLAND.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER
70S ALONG THE COAST EACH NIGHT. 07/MB

MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE AND SEAS TO BUILD SLIGHTLY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. EVEN THOUGH I CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME GUSTS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS IN SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS...WIND SPEEDS AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEEN
EACH DAY. /BUTTS

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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