Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KMOB 271009
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
504 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WEAKENS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUED PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MODERATED JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND LOWER 70S
COASTAL THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...COUPLED WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.
ANY CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
EARLIER THIS WEEK. WITH THE LOWER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS STILL OVER
THE REGION...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INTERIOR COUNTIES TO LOWER 70S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS

(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY ON THU GENERALLY FROM WEST TO
EAST IN RESPONSE TO NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THIS PATTERN A
BETTER ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY ON THU CONTINUING
THROUGH FRI ALLOWING BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN
ADVECTING NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS
MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BEGIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY FRI MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF
THE CWFA LATE FRI MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO
BE TO THE WEST AND OFFSHORE EARLY FRI GRADUALLY EAST AND NORTH
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
ON THU AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THEN PREVIOUS NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR INLAND AREAS IN AL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST MS. WILL
USE AND BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THU
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.


.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST REACHING THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SAT RESULTING IN A DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BETTER LEFT WILL ALSO BER LIKLEY ON SAT RESULTING IN GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON
SAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT THEN SHIFT INLAND BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IN NOT EXPECTED WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE ON SAT THOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DAMPENING OUT SUN THROUGH TUE AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NC AND NORTHERN GA. WITH DEEP MOIST STILL IN
PLACE COMBINED WITH LESS FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS SUN THROUGH TUE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASUARBLE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTING WELL
INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE EXTENDED MAV/MET AND ECWMF FOR TEMPS IN THE
EXTEDED PDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE


&&

.AVIATION (27/12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT EASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED...EXCEPT SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF FLORIDA AND
BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT MAINLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GULF RIDGE BUILDS.
SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE TODAY...GENERALLY DECREASING
TO AROUND 2 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
12/DS


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  50
PENSACOLA   92  73  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      92  75  90  75  90 /  10  05  10  10  40
EVERGREEN   93  64  95  66  93 /  10  05  05  05  30
WAYNESBORO  94  66  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  05  30
CAMDEN      93  64  95  66  94 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   94  64  94  65  93 /  10  05  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




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