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000
FXUS64 KMOB 221258 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
751 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.ZONE UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. WENT AHEAD AND
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FURTHER TO THE EAST AND ALONG THE COAST. MCS
OVER SOUTHERN LA NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS OF MS THEN SLOWLY ERODE OVER COASTAL AREAS OF AL AND THE
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. 32/EE

&&

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND MOST INLAND AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING.

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER TROF OVER THE LOWER
AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
AND DAMPEN SLOWLY TODAY PROVIDING ENOUGH MID LEVEL FORCING OR LIFT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS
OF SE MS EARLY TODAY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS OF THE
CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION TO THE WEST WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAS MOVED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA WHICH
WILL LIKELY STALL LATER THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY BECOME A FOCUS FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INLAND
AND CONVERGE NEAR THE SFC DUE TO A WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. THE
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
STATES. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE COAST TO EXTREME NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA BEGIN TO MOISTURE EARLY TODAY WITH PWS CLIMBING
TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR
BECOMING MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BY THIS AFTERNOON. SFC BASED CAPES
CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO
AROUND 3200 J/KG BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT WITH CONTINUED FORCING IN THE
MID LEVELS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND BETTER INSTABILITY FORMING
LATER IN THE DAY WE STILL COULD SEE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OCCURRING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE WARMER MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS TODAY THOUGH UNDERCUT
THESE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO MOSTLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH WHERE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND IN THE LOWER
80S NEAR THE COAST. AS FOR LOWS TONIGHT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND ADD A DEGREE OR TWO TO SOME AREAS NEAR THE
COAST AND TO THE EAST DUE TO CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. 32/EE

THE WET MICROBURST RISK FOR TODAY IS MODERATE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THURSDAY ON THE BASE OF A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MEANWHILE BE PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SHORT
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE AN AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY THURSDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
BETWEEN 23-25 C ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S
ACROSS THE CWFA. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHEN COMBINED WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY NEAR COASTAL AREAS WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES MAY RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. THOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY MEAGER...AFTERNOON HEATING AND
INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WE LEFT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL MODERATE INSTABILITY...ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS COULD BE STRONG OR NEAR SEVERE LIMITS. IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...
AND HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST INTACT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. /21


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...A MUCH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY ON THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ARKLATEX REGION AND NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANWHILE
CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF
COAST REGION. NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR CWFA FRIDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOOKS TO BRING A DRIER AIRMASS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION. WE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 50S
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST OF
UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE
CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BOTH
DAYS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO EXPAND AT LEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO NO RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN TRENDED CLOSE TO MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE. /21

&&

.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
14Z THIS MORNING THEN VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z THU
FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z FRI. LOW STATUS AND
FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCT TO
BKN LOW TO MID CLOUDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THEN MORE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z THU. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED OVER MOST TERMINAL SITES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THU MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL
GULF STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY NORTH AND
BUILD LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE WITH THE STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      85  68  90  66  86 /  30  20  20  10  05
PENSACOLA   85  71  89  68  87 /  20  20  20  10  05
DESTIN      83  72  87  70  85 /  10  20  20  10  05
EVERGREEN   88  66  93  63  85 /  30  30  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  87  65  93  62  85 /  40  30  20  10  05
CAMDEN      88  65  92  62  83 /  30  40  20  10  05
CRESTVIEW   89  65  94  64  88 /  20  20  20  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21