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000
FXUS64 KMOB 050528 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.AVIATION...(06Z ISSUANCE)...WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER LAND
AREAS BEING FED BY WARM MOIST FLOW OFF THE GULF...THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIE IN THE WINDS. NEAR COASTAL AREAS
WILL SEE DENSE SEA FOG...EVEN WITH WINDS A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
FOR DOG DUE TO THE WARM AIR FLOWING OVER COOL WATERS ALONG THE
COAST. LAND AREAS ARE GOING TO BE RULED BY THE WINDS. WINDS SETTLE
AND THE STRATUS DECK SETTLES TO THE SURFACE AND DENSE FOG RESULTS.
ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS...A RISE
IN THE AIR OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET WILL ALLOW FOR THE STRATUS DECK TO
COME TO THE SURFACE...WITH THE BEST EXAMPLE BEING KMOB. WILL NEED
WINDS TO SETTLE A BIT FOR THIS TO HAPPEN...THOUGH. AIRPORTS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FA WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SHRA
STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM OVER THE GULF.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN JUST
DEEP ENOUGH (EXTENDING FROM 295K TO 305K) TO RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY EAST OF I-65. THE
NAM AND RAP SHOW SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THIS
EVENING...SO WILL GO WITH 30-40% RAIN CHANCES OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER WEST. MOISTURE AND LIFT
ABATE LATE TONIGHT IN THE 305K LAYER...SO EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO
DECREASE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WHILE AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW DENSE IT BECOMES. WITH A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WINDS MAY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MORE
OF A VERY LOW STRATUS DECK WITH SOME FOG...BUT KEEPING DENSE FOG
PATCHY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR LAND AREAS. IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH...THEN DENSE
FOG WILL BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD. THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. LOWS WILL BE VERY
MILD...ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. NORMAL LOWS ARE IN
THE 40S.

CONDITIONS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THURSDAY AS WE STAY IN A STRONG
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY WITH DEEP
LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END RAIN CHANCES (30%)
THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER 70S EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH LOW TO MID 70S AT THE COAST. MOBILE MAY ONCE AGAIN
COME CLOSE TO THE RECORD OF 79 DEGREES. 34/JFB

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. DUE TO THE WEAKENING UPPER SUPPORT AND LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE FRONT
WILL STALL IN THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
QUICKLY RETURNING NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE WESTERN STATES TROUGH. AS
THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY...A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND INTO THE GULF MONDAY
NIGHT. SOME OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAINS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE LARGE SCALE WESTERN TROUGH SLIDES
EAST ON TUESDAY...A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON ROLLER COASTER RIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS ON FRIDAY BEFORE
COOLING OFF BELOW NORMAL VALUES ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WARM BACK ABOVE
NORMAL ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM
FRONT. TEMPS THEN COOL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /13

&&

.MARINE...THE MAIN MARINE CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG IN THE INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS. WITH WATERS TEMPS STILL
RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S IN PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY AND MISSISSIPPI
SOUND...EXPECT DENSE FOG TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE ZONES THROUGH MID THURSDAY MORNING. THE FOG
THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
MOST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING...LIKELY STALLING JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE MARINE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF MODERATE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO MOBILE BAY AND AL GULF ZONES EARLY SATURDAY.
THE FRONT MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
BRINGING A RETURN OF A MODERATE ONSHORE WIND. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FOR GOOD MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING FOR TUE-WED. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY
THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  78  66  79  49 /  20  30  30  50  70
PENSACOLA   67  74  65  77  56 /  30  30  20  40  60
DESTIN      68  71  67  75  62 /  40  30  20  30  50
EVERGREEN   65  79  66  80  52 /  30  30  30  40  60
WAYNESBORO  66  79  62  73  42 /  20  30  50  70  60
CAMDEN      64  79  63  79  48 /  20  30  50  60  70
CRESTVIEW   65  78  64  80  58 /  40  30  20  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

&&

$$