Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 030151 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
851 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE TRAILED OFF ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR. FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE INTENSITY OR COVERAGE FOR MORE THAN JUST A MENTION AT
THIS TIME. NO BIG ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST AS THE PACKAGE
SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...
03.00Z ISSUANCE...SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING. VFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO LOWER
THAN MVFR VIS/CIGS AT THE TERMINALS. 07/MB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON]...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION
WITH A TRAILING SFC TROUGH HELPING TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE
WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A DRIER
MID/UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE AREA. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE SFC TROUGH AND SEABREEZE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S. /13

[WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MEANWHILE...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH REGION. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS A DIURNAL PATTERN HAS NOW BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION. ONGOING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-65...WILL
DISSIPATE AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY MID EVENING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE ENVIRONMENT AGAIN BECOMES UNSTABLE...AND AGAIN BE
CONFINED ALONG A LINE FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO ANDALUSIA ALABAMA
AND POINTS SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY EACH NIGHT... ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND OTHER FOG PRONE
AREAS. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INLAND
AREAS...RANGING FROM 89 TO 93 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE NEAR NORMAL RANGING FROM 84 TO 88 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND
AREAS WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE REMNANTS OF THE EASTERN
UPPER SYSTEM MOVES...LEAVING AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE EAST COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS CREATED A GENERALLY
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WASHES OUT...ALLOWING A SURFACE RIDGE
(ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE CARIBBEAN)
TO BUILD WEST A BIT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND RE-ESTABLISH A
MORE ORGANIZED (BUT STILL LIGHT) ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE FA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS. THE EASTERN UPPER LOW GETS AN EASTWARD SHOVE FROM
AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER THE PLAINS AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FILLS A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVING
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS FLATTENS THE PLAINS RIDGE AS IT
MOVES IT SOUTHWEST A BIT. THE FIRST OF THE SHORTWAVE PUSH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY LATE TUESDAY.
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING
WEEK...THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES...TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS
ACCORDING TO GUIDANCE. TEMPS WARM...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MARINE....A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A WEAK TROF PERSISTING
JUST INLAND OVER THE ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A PREVAILING LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS GENERALLY EXPECTED...BUT BECOMING MORE
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY LATE EACH NIGHT AND VERY EARLY MORNING. HIGHEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE EACH AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  87  68  90  69 /  10  20  30  30  20
PENSACOLA   71  87  72  88  72 /  20  20  30  30  20
DESTIN      73  84  74  87  74 /  20  20  30  30  20
EVERGREEN   66  88  66  92  66 /  20  10  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  88  65  91  67 /  05  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      65  87  65  91  67 /  10  10  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   68  89  65  93  66 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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