Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 220522

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1122 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


06Z issuance...Mostly VFR conditions expected through the period,
with the exception being some locally MVFR cigs east of I-65
overnight tonight. North winds increase to around 12 to 16 knots
with slightly higher gusts Wednesday morning and afternoon in the
wake of a cold front before settling some Wednesday night. /49


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...Next mid level short wave trof
over the central plains states will continue to shift south and
east, reaching the western gulf stretching northeast across the
lower Mississippi river valley and north central gulf states by late
Wed afternoon. Near the surface a weak surface low is noted near and
just east of the base of the upper trof, forming over the south
central gulf late tonight and early Wed then slowly shifting
northeast through Wed afternoon. To the north another surge of cold
air also approaches from the northwest and north late tonight and
early Wed moving well south over northern gulf waters by early Wed
morning. With this pattern little to no moisture return is expected
ahead of the main upper trof helping to keep very low to nil pops
for all locations in the forecast area for the next 24 hours. Model
soundings also depict this well showing a rather dry column for all
areas continuing through the next 24 hours. The biggest change for
the next 24 hours will be colder air pushing down across the region
early Wed combined with breezy conditions throughout the day. Mostly
cloudy conditions will also prevail for most locations late tonight
through Wed morning, then gradually clear from the northwest to
southeast during the afternoon hours on Wed.

Lows tonight will be tad warmer than last night, or very close to
seasonal levels, ranging from the lower to middle 40s for most
inland areas and the upper 40s to lower 50s further south to the
immediate coast. Highs Wed will range from the low to mid 60s for
most locations north of the I-10 corridor and the mid to upper 60s
to the south. 32/ee

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...Dry
conditions are expected through the period. A large upper trof
over the eastern states moves partially off into the far western
Atlantic Thursday night into Friday morning but then is quickly
reestablished over the eastern states as a powerful system
advances out of the Plains. An inverted trof over the eastern Gulf
evolves into a surface low on Thursday then later moves off across
the Florida peninsula into the western Atlantic. During this
evolution, a surface ridge over the southeastern states gradually
weakens, but the over the overall pattern will maintain a dry and
predominately light northerly flow over the forecast area. Lows
Wednesday night and Thursday night will range from mostly mid 30s
well inland to the mid 40s at the coast. For both nights, some
locations look to drop to freezing across interior southeast
Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama. Friday night will be a
bit warmer and range from around 40 well inland to the upper 40s
at the coast. Highs on Thursday range from around 60 well inland
to the lower/mid 60s for the remainder of the area, then Friday
will be a bit warmer and mostly in the mid 60s. /29

LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...Dry conditions continue
through Tuesday. A longwave trof over the eastern states slowly
moves off into the western Atlantic on Monday followed by another
longwave trof advancing across the Plains on Tuesday. A surface
low well to the north brings a cold front through the forecast
area Saturday into Saturday night followed by a large dome of cool
high pressure building into the southeast states through Sunday
night. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 60s to around 70
then trend cooler in the wake of the front with highs on Monday
mostly in the lower 60s. Lows Saturday night range from the lower
40s inland to mid 40s closer to the coast then for Sunday night as
the cooler air flows into the region, lows range from the mid 30s
inland to around 40 at the coast. Lows Monday night range from
around 40 inland to the upper 40s at the coast. The surface high
shifts off to the east during the remainder of the period allowing
for a southerly flow to become established and return milder
daytime temperatures of 65 to 70 to the area for Tuesday. /29

MARINE...A light northeasterly wind will continue through this
evening then shift north and build late tonight through Wed morning,
easing off slightly Wed afternoon, then rebuilding late Wed night
through mid morning Thu. Seas will continue around 2 to 3 feet this
evening then build to 3 to 5 feet early Wed morning and continue
through early Thu morning then slowly subside to 2 to 3 feet by
early Fri morning. Another cold front is expected to move across the
marine area late Sat, leading to a moderate to occasionaly strong
offshore late Sat night through early Sun. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect for the open gulf waters of Alabama and Northwest
Florida through late Wed night. 32/ee


GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to 3 AM CST Thursday
     for GMZ650-655-670-675.



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