760
FXUS64 KMOB 140537
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1237 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

High pressure both at the surface and in the upper levels of the
atmosphere will remain centered over the area through Tuesday.
Light northwesterly to northerly flow will advect slightly drier
air aloft and along with increased subsidence should support deep
afternoon mixing both Monday and Tuesday afternoon`s. This should
allow for lowering dewpoints and hotter temperatures during this
period. High temperatures will likely be a few degrees hotter
early this week with middle to upper 90s expected. Lows will
remain warm as well with increased humidity overnight. Due to deep
mixing, heat indices should remain between 100 and 105 degrees
Monday afternoon and 102 to 107 degrees on Tuesday afternoon. We
will need to keep a close eye on dewpoints the next few days to
ensure that heat advisory conditions are not met, especially
Tuesday. This potential will be closely monitored over the next
few days.

Otherwise, the higher concern for potential high impact weather will
come for the second half of the week. Latest ensemble guidance
continues to suggest that a developing surface low pressure off the
coast of South Carolina this evening should retrograde southwest and
west towards the east coast of Florida tomorrow and across the
Florida Peninsula Monday night through Tuesday morning. As this
feature emerges off the west coast of Florida into the northeast
Gulf conditions appear increasingly favorable for the development of
a tropical system. At this time, there still remains uncertainty
regarding how well the system can consolidate a low level center.
Depending upon its ability to organize, it will be possible for it
to develop. Once again, overall confidence in both development and
track remain low, but this is something to closely monitor over the
next few days as it could result in hazardous high impact weather in
our area if development and intensification occurs and it tracks
close enough to our area. Regardless, it appears that increasing
winds and dangerous rip current conditions appear more likely for
the middle to end of the week if nothing else than a tightened
pressure gradient. Continue to monitor the latest forecast and we
will continue to provide additional updates. /JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.
A few isolated showers and storms will develop this afternoon
across the area. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and
ceilings in some of the heavier activity. Light and variable winds
are expected this morning, with winds generally turning westerly
to northwesterly by the afternoon hours. Winds along the coast
should turn more southwesterly as the sea breeze pushes inland. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Light offshore flow will continue each day through Tuesday as a
surface gradually moves westward over the northern Gulf. Chances
for showers and thunderstorms will be lower early this week due
to enhanced subsidence. High impact weather may develop over our
marine areas for the second half of the week as a potential
tropical cyclone could bring increased rain, wind, and seas.
Confidence remains low regarding development, therefore continue
to monitor the latest coastal forecast over the next couple of
days for any updates. /JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  96  75  94  74  88  74  87 /  10  40  20  80  60  90  50  90
Pensacola   78  96  78  92  77  88  78  87 /  10  30  40  80  60  90  50  90
Destin      81  95  79  88  79  89  80  90 /  10  40  50  80  60  90  50  80
Evergreen   74  97  74  93  73  91  73  90 /  10  20  30  60  30  80  30  80
Waynesboro  73  97  74  96  72  91  73  89 /  10  20  10  50  30  80  20  80
Camden      74  96  75  94  74  91  73  89 /  10  10  20  50  30  70  20  80
Crestview   74  98  74  92  73  89  74  90 /  10  60  30  90  40 100  30  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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