Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 251810

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1210 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas and aviation
discussion below.


.UPDATE...Plentiful low-level mixing owing to a combination of daytime
heating and moderate northerly mixed-layer flow has resulted in
dewpoints dropping quicker and lower than originally progged.
Have therefore adjusted today`s dewpoints (and resulting RH
values) to more accurately reflect these drier observational
trends. /49


25/18Z issuance...VFR conditions expected through the forecast
period. Light to occasionally moderate northerly winds this
afternoon become light and variable overnight before shifting to
southeasterly Sunday morning. /49


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

25/12Z issuance...Cold front currently moving east across the
region, only an isolated shower or two in advance of the front.
Winds shifting to northwest immediately behind the front, gusting
to 20 to 25 mph. Winds decrease slightly this by this afternoon as
high pressure begins to build into region and light north winds
expected tonight. Skies clearing west to east across the region
through the morning hours as the front moves off to the east, so
VFR conditions expected through period. 12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 442 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday night/...Cold front moving
across forecast area this morning brining only a few isolated
showers. This front should be east of the forecast by sunrise or
shortly thereafter with rain chances ending by mid to late morning
and a brief period of moderate to gusty northwesterly winds
through late morning as well. Northwest flow continues this
afternoon though slightly diminishing, becoming light northeast
tonight as surface high pressure builds over the area. With the
surface high pressure and northerly flow building in, cooler and
drier conditions expected in the near term period. Daytime highs
today will be 10 to nearly 20 degrees cooler than those of
yesterday, and much more near normal for this time of the year.
Afternoon highs will range from the lower 60s over far northern
counties, mid and upper 60s across central portions of the
forecast area, and upper 60s to lower 70s coastal and southeast
portions of forecast area. Cold tonight with lows primarily in the
mid 30s over interior sections of southeast Mississippi and
interior southwest Alabama. For coastal counties of Alabama and
the western Florida panhandle lows will range from upper 30s north
of I-10 to lower 40s south of I-10. 12/DS

SHORT TERM /Sunday Through Monday night/...High pressure builds
east, becoming positioned over the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday.
Sunday`s highs mostly in the mid to upper 60s look to be near
seasonable. Due to a light southeast component of flow, overnight
lows Sunday night become much more modified into the mid/upper
40s interior to mid/upper 50s coast. A transition to a more
unsettled weather pattern evolves Monday. With the synoptic scale
high pressure ridge (surface and aloft) off the southeast US
coast, a quick return of deep Gulf moisture overspreads the
central Gulf coast Monday. This combined with the eastward
passage of a series of mid level impulses in a more defined west
southwest flow aloft on Monday brings enough ascent for a much
higher chance of showers and storms going thru the day. The slow
poleward advance of a warm front will also serve as a source of
increased focus. With the increase in clouds and rain chances,
have decided to undercut MOS high temperatures a bit by 2 to 4
degrees or so for most areas Monday calling for high temperatures
to range from 72 to 76. Overnight lows Monday night, unseasonably
mild in the lower to mid 60s. /10

LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...Broad upper level ridge of
high pressure from the Bahamas to the southwest Gulf along with a
trof of low pressure over the Plains, results in a continued
potentially active southwest flow aloft Tuesday. The flow appears
to amplify by Wednesday as upper trof swings east across the
Mississippi Valley, allowing next cold front to approach from the
west. This system could bring a few strong to severe storms by
Wednesday. Still too far out in time to get overly specific on
this due to amount of spread in weather model guidance on strength
and timing these events at longer time ranges. Another period of
unseasonably warm daily highs thru mid week, trends near to
slightly below seasonal (mid 60s) by Thursday/Friday following
the passage of next front. Overnight lows in the mid 60s
Wednesday morning to remain well above climo, settles into the
lower to mid 40s interior to near 50 coast by Friday morning. /10

MARINE...A cold front moving across the marine area early this
morning will be south of the coastal waters by midday. A brief surge
of strong offshore winds and building seas will develop in the wake
of the front this morning, subsiding slightly during the afternoon.
A moderate, mostly onshore wind flow is then expected over the
marine area through the middle part of next week as high pressure
moves east to the north of the coastal waters through Monday and
then ridges back west across the marine area on Tuesday.  Another
cold front could move across the marine area by next Wednesday, with
increasing offshore winds and building seas in its wake. 12/DS




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