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000
FXUS64 KMOB 110233
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
933 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.UPDATE...LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS
DISSIPATED FOR THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA ALONG
WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. ALSO BUMPED TEMPS UP
SLIGHTLY AND ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014/

AVIATION [11.00Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
DEVELOP TO THE NORTH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MOVE TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /13

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...A COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW
DRIVEN ACTIVITY THAT MOVED ACROSS THE FA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SCATTERED TSRA THAT POPPED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL
DECREASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES WITH THE PASSING PRECIP AND
SETTING SUN. DO EXPECT THE CURRENT OFFSHORE FLOW TO LIGHTEN AND WORK
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO FORM LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING TSRA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INLAND WITH THE
GULF BREEZE IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALSO HAVE SOME
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY HELPING FRIDAY...SO POPS AT OR ABOVE
SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL. /16

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY...
WHILE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PREVALENT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWFA SATURDAY...AND EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOCUSED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AND
NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
HIGHS TRENDING A LITTLE WARMER...FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 NEAR
THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL...FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]... NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.
A NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. WELL
TO THE NORTH...AN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SOUTH OF A
LARGE...BROAD TROF POSITIONED FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE IS IN PLACE...THE FORECAST
AREA COULD VERY WELL SEE THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY...WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH COVERAGE PROBABLY MOST FOCUSED
NEAR THE SEABREEZE.

THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN NEXT WEEK AS LOWER
HEIGHTS/TROF DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO
CONTINUE.

HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 90S MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE GULF INFLUENCE KEEPS TEMPERATURES MORE
MODIFIED INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT
LOWS. LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S COAST. 10/21

MARINE...AM EXPECTING A WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF OF MEX INTO SUNDAY...WITH A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW THERE
AFTER AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  93  72  92  73 /  20  40  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   73  92  76  90  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      75  90  76  86  78 /  20  50  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  93  70  92  70 /  20  30  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  69  94  69  95  69 /  20  20  10  20  10
CAMDEN      69  93  71  94  72 /  20  20  10  20  20
CRESTVIEW   71  92  70  92  71 /  20  50  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$