Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 280958
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
258 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX RADAR
IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY.
RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ SO
PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OVER
SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE BACKED
OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE STILL IN
THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO DIMINISHED
FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C RANGE.
LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...RADAR IS QUIET SO LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IS OVER FOR TONIGHT. STRATUS
CONTINUES NEAR THE COAST AND CAN BE SEEN SPREADING INLAND THROUGH
A FEW OF THE COASTAL GAPS. SO STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO SFO AND THE APPROACH LATER TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFT 09Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE NIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

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