Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 162150
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
250 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY FOG AND CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...OUTSIDE OF A FEW
HIGHER CLOUDS THAT ARE DRIFTING NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA,
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH A STRONG NNW FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
THE EXTRA SUNSHINE IS HELPING TO BOOST TEMPS TODAY -- IN FACT
ALMOST ALL INLAND SPOTS ARE AT LEAST IN THE 70S. COASTAL LOCATIONS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BRING BACK CLOUDS
TO AT LEAST COASTAL SPOTS.

VERY QUIET WEATHER IS ON TAP THROUGH MONDAY NEXT WEEK AS THE MAIN
STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH. ONLY SYNOPTIC ITEM OF
NOTE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE
WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE THE DEPTH
OF THE MARINE LAYER AND CLOUD COVER FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCHY
FOG WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE. BY FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY FOR MOST SPOTS. HIGHS WILL WARM AGAIN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM EXITS.

TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK INTERESTING AS A STRONG, COLD SYSTEM FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR CWA. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT 700 MB READINGS DOWN AS COLD AS 11C WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO KICK OF SHOWERS ANS POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
WINDS WILL ALSO RAMP UP ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS. WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATEST ECMWF IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE AND HAS THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS DEPICTS A DEEPER SYSTEM THAT IMPACTS US THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IF THE GFS VERIFIES, WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW ABOVE
THE 3,500 ELEVATION MARK ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS HELPED TO CLEAR OUT THE STRATUS
CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND HAS ALSO HELPED TO DRY THE ATMOSPHERE OUT
WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING ABOUT 2 DEGREES COOLER AND TEMPERATURES 5
DEGREES WARMER OVER YESTERDAY. THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE
IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. THIS DRYING AIRMASS WILL HELP TO SLOW THE RETURN
OF STRATUS TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO REACH 20 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH LATE EVENING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE NORTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF COASTAL POINTS SUCH AS PT
SUR. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF STEADY WIND WILL RESULT IN LARGE
STEEP SEAS EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS OF STRONGEST WINDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY

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