Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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220
FXUS63 KOAX 200536
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1136 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

WV imagery was showing a longwave trof extending from central Canada
to the southern CA coastline along with a subtropical moisture feed
streaming northeastward from the southern Plains to New England.
Meanwhile, extensive stratus shield...per natural color imagery/sfc
obs... encompassing the the central Plains. At the surface, low
pressure was centered over southeast IA with a strong colds front
extending into northern then to central OK.

Onset of precip and dominate type tonight is the main issue to
contend with. HRRR/RAP13 are consistent showing the CWA will be
in a donut hole this evening as two separate areas of precip
form...one over SD/NE panhandle and the other over eastern
KS/central MO. Soundings indicate the column will eventually
saturate out over the CWA toward midnight. With the onset of
precip, soundings show the dominate precip type will be light
freezing rain over the central/southern CWA, with a mix of light
freezing drizzle/sleet to the north before making a change over to
all snow shortly after midnight. As of now, it appears that the
brunt of ice accumulation will be realized over the extreme
southeast NE and the majority of southwest Iowa. Ice
accumulations, around a tenth of an inch or so, leading up to the
morning rush on Tuesday will quite likely make traveling
conditions quite difficult up through the mid morning hours. As
for snow accumulations over the northern CWA, expect around an
inch or so, with possibly 2 in Knox and Antelope counties.

Another round of mixed precip will be possible Thursday in
conjunction with several impulses ejecting out of the southwest
CONUS/stout isentropic upglide.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Light snow activity will be coming to a close Thursday night as
dynamic forcing shifts east and drier airmass filters in from the
north. A stout vort max moving into the central Plains could be the
focus for another mix precip event Saturday and Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Thunderstorms producing a wintry mix of precipitation will affect
the KLNK and KOMA TAF sites for several hours early in the period,
with Sleet, Freezing Rain, Freezing Drizzle and Snow all possible.
When snowing, vsbys will drop to LIFR at time, while mainly IFR
vsbys are forecast when heaviest rain or sleet showers are
overhead. Outside of showers of sleet/freezing rain/snow, freezing
drizzle will be predominant type, with MVFR vsbys expected. Cigs
will remain below FL010 through 15Z with gradual improvement to
VFR by 00Z. KOFK will remain generally all snow, with IFR to LIFR
cigs and vsbys through 15Z before a gradually improvement there.
North to northwest winds of 15 to 25kt are expected through 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-031>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for IAZ043-055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Dergan



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