Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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036
FXUS63 KOAX 231117
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
517 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

The entire forecast period looks dry with main forecast concerns
centered around temperatures and winds.

Northwesterly flow aloft continues over the area as mid/upper level
ridging remains over the western states. At the surface, a weak low
pressure system was located over southern Minnesota this morning
with a weak cold front extending southwest into eastern
Nebraska/western Iowa. This has primarily caused only a light
wind shift to the northwest in our area. Surface flow will become
west and eventually southwest this afternoon but should remain
fairly light throughout the day. Despite weak mixing, highs should
still top out in the upper 50s in our east to mid 60s in our
west.

A strong shortwave will top the western ridge allowing a strong cold
front to dive through the area Friday. Warm downsloping winds to our
west will allow 850mb temps to reach into the teens across most of
our area, with upper teens in our southern CWA. The front is
forecast to slide through late morning to early afternoon and
extend south of our counties by 21z or so. Windy conditions are
expected behind the front for a few hours in the afternoon with
gusts to 40 mph possible.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

The remainder of the holiday weekend will be dry, but cooler than
Friday. Ridging builds over the High Plains by late Sunday
bringing in another warm airmass. Monday`s highs could approach
mid to upper 60s again ahead of the next strong cold front
dropping into the Central Plains. Unlike the front on Friday, this
one will bring stronger cold air advection into the region with a
progressive open wave moving over the northern Plains. Medium
range models are trending dry with this system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 517 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Light and variable winds as of 11z will increase slightly from the
northwest by mid morning before backing to southwest by afternoon.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with
mainly passing high clouds.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Mead



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