Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 112315
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
615 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

MAIN ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

THIS AFTN THROUGH SATURDAY...DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER/AFTN HEATING
WILL ALLOW ENVIRONMENT TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE WITH BOTH NAM/GFS
ADVERTISING MUCAPES AROUND 3500 J/KG...LI -1O. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH FAVORABLE EFF SHEAR/DEEP LYR SHEAR PRETTY MUCH SUGGEST INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THUS SEVERE TSTMS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
LIKELY THAT TSTM INITIATION WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
WRN SD/NW NEB WHERE STRONG LLVL MOISTURE ADV WILL BE PERPENDICULAR
TO ZONE OF INTENSE BNDRY LYR THETA-E CONVG. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE THEN OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER WHERE
LLVL MOISTURE CONVG/STRONG 310K-315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE
FOCUSED. APPEARS THAT WAA FORCING WILL BE MAINTAINED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH 850-250MB DIFF DIVG CONTRIBUTING TO SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT. IN ADDITION...PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT APPEARS
PROBABLE MAINLY OVER THE NRN CWA ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL
BNDRY. KI VALUES 40-45 INDICATE DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
AT THAT TIME. PRECIP EFFICIENCY WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE CONSIDERING
DEPTH OF WARM CLOUD LYR ALONG WITH PWS OF 2" OR MORE.

CANNOT DISCOUNT SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL SAT AFTN WHEN INSTABILITY
RAMPS UP AGAIN ALONG SFC BNDRY. CONDITIONS IMPROVING THEN MONDAY
AFTN.

CONVECTIVE PCPN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST THRU MONDAY MORNING
WHEN A SECONDARY SHOT OF CAA PRESSES SWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014


DETERMINISTIC ECM/GFS AS WELL AS ECMENS/CMCENS AGREE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL BE RELATIVELY STAGNANT INTO NEXT WEEK HIGHLY ANOMALOUS
CLOSED UPPER LOW ENVELOPING THE ERN CONUS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WRN CONUS. PATTERN WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR DRY/COOL
AIRMASS TO FILTER INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP MAX/MIN TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THE DURATION OF THE
EXTENDED PDS. STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE MORNING LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE APPROACHING NEAR RECORD VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

TSTM CHANCES ARE HIGHEST AT KOFK ACCORDING TO LATEST HRRR MODEL
RUNS WHICH KEEP MOST PCPN IN OUR AREA ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. DID MENTION SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBYS THERE WITH
TSRA. FOR KOMA AND KLNK...CHANCES SEEM LOWER AND DID NOT MENTION
ANY TSTMS FOR NOW AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...SO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THAT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER


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