Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 301110
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
610 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

A large upper level low continues to spin over Ontario with a
vort lobe rotating through our northeastern CWA this morning. At
the surface, a ridge of high pressure continues to build east and
is forecast to remain over the area into Wednesday giving the area
continued dry conditions.

By Wednesday afternoon, strong return flow sets up over the Central
and High Plains allowing strong moisture return into the region. At
the same time, several weak mid-level impulses will be drifting
southeast through the area in northwesterly flow as mid-level
ridging builds over the Rockies. Nocturnal southwesterly low level
jet will nose into the area overnight Wednesday into Thursday
morning which should be our best chance at thunderstorms. Longer
range CAM`s show a complex developing over the High Plains late
Wed night and moving east across the CWA into Thursday morning.

Both the GFS and NAM show mid 60s dewpoints over the area by
Thursday afternoon with temperatures increasing into at least the
lower 80s as ridging expands over the region. Lingering cloud
cover from overnight convection could limit temps a bit.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

Friday through Saturday looks unsettled although operational
models still have poor agreement with regards to upper flow
pattern leading to increased forecaster uncertainty through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

Expect VFR conditions through the period. There will be some
variable mid level clouds across the area today. Light and
variable winds will become northwest 10 to 15 knots today, the
diminish this evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Miller


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