Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 240845

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
345 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(today through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Intense mid-level cyclone associated with 150 m H5 height falls
this evening was located over SE CO early this morning. Broad zone
of ascent associated with strong low- to mid-level thermal
advection was ongoing to the northeast of the cyclone from the
central Plains to the upper MS river valley. The ongoing forcing
for ascent is expected to weaken this morning as the mid-level dry
slot works northeast toward the area. We will continue with some
high pops initially in the northwest CWA close to the mid-level
deformation zone as well in the southeast CWA associated with
ascent with the veering low-level jet.

Models are in fair agreement today in the upper level cyclone
moving east across southern KS/northern OK and into eastern MO by
Saturday night. As the dry slot works into the southern CWA the
700-500 mb lapse rates will steepen as 500 mb cold pocket works
toward the southern CWA. This will combine with existing low-
level moisture to increase instability in a zone from the 850 mb
front south into KS/MO. As temperatures ahead of the cold front
increase to around 70, and forced ascent associated with 700-400
CDPVA becomes juxtaposed over the southern CWA we will likely see
isolated to scattered convection develop. Instability is fairly
weak for late March and the wind profile is not overly favorable
for severe, but some small hail appears possible given the cold
temperatures aloft. Otherwise we expect frontogenesis to increase
over the northwest CWA within the developing deformation zone
where steady light to moderate rainfall is expected. The
deformation band will further expand and include a good part of
the rest of the CWA tonight and into most of Saturday before
shifting east with a dry Sunday expected.

Temperatures today are problematic with outflow associated with
the ongoing convection now pushing south of I80. We are still
observing 2-3 mb 3-hr pressure rises behind this outflow and thus
it may continue to push south a bit before stalling. There will
be a strong temperature contrast across this boundary today
somewhere in the CWA with highs near or slight better than 70 to
the south of it and highs in the 40s in the northwest CWA. This
boundary should push to the south tonight with much cooler air
expected into the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The active weather appears to continue into the extended range of
the forecast. Another trough crossing the Plains on Sunday night
into Monday will bring a chance of rainfall to mainly the southern
CWA. After another short break another trough is expected toward
mid week, but models diverge significantly on the track of this
system with the GFS well south while the EC is much farther north.
Given these differences we will continue with some pops for mid
week with continued below normal temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The cold front is through KOFK and MVFR and IFR ceilings will
start to impact the terminal by 10Z this morning, and should
continue through the end of the period. The cold front will move
through KOMA/KLNK by 18-20Z with the MVFR/IFR cigs to follow by
late afternoon. We will also see period of rain overnight and
through the day at KOFK. Although isolated showers are possible
overnight tonight at KOMA/KLNK, more steady rainfall will not
develop in these area until late Friday afternoon into Friday
evening. Although some thunder is possible Friday afternoon at
KOMA/KLNK, it appears that the chances are to low to currently
include in the TAFs.





SHORT TERM...Boustead
LONG TERM...Boustead
AVIATION...Boustead is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.