Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 131838
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
137 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...WARM, UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A SLOW-
MOVING COLD FRONT COMING TOGETHER NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
SCATTERED CELLS ARE DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU, AND ALSO TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. POP`S WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY TOMORROW AS THE FRONT
EDGES INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE SPC HAS KEPT US UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, AND THIS IS
POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING ONLY MODEST
INSTABILITY SETTING UP TOMORROW WITH NO PRONOUNCED DRY LAYERS. SO
THIS EVENT, GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT, MAY MORPH
INTO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN SYSTEM. THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES
COINCIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM (AND THE WARM FRONT COMING THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND) ARE WITHIN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED RANGE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FOR THE NEXT 240 HOURS, SO LOOK FOR A
SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE AFTER MONDAY NIGHT`S FROPA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      73  88  69  82 /  20  60  70  30
CLARKSVILLE    71  86  66  79 /  30  70  60  10
CROSSVILLE     68  83  67  78 /  20  60  60  50
COLUMBIA       72  90  70  83 /  10  60  70  40
LAWRENCEBURG   71  91  70  84 /  10  60  70  40
WAVERLY        72  88  67  80 /  20  60  60  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




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