Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 161133
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
533 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Surface ridge has shifted east of Middle Tennessee, with much
welcome return flow now establishing itself, although we`ll have
to endure one more cold morning. The southerly flow will start to
bear fruit a few hours from now as temperatures warm into the
50`s most areas across the mid state. In spite of copious and
well- deserved sunshine today, things will change quickly. A
shortwave currently brewing over northern Mexico will gain steam
over the next 24 hours and move rapidly toward the northeast and
bring rain to the mid state on Sunday. A few echoes may slip
across the Tennessee River prior to 12Z Sunday, but the primary
focus appears to be 12-18Z Sunday. The deepest moisture will pull
east of Middle Tennessee after 18Z, with lesser POP`s lingering
into the afternoon and evening. The forecast surface pattern
really doesn`t portend any sort of frontal passage until late
Tuesday or Tuesday evening, so look for temperatures to continue
escalating until the middle of next week, when we`ll see a slight,
brief cooling trend. Both the ECMWF and GFS continue to bring a
much stronger cold front through Middle Tennessee on Friday. That
they are in such good agreement this far out is unusual.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR flight rules for the entire TAF period, though there will be a
high cloud deck throughout the day.

Southwesterly winds will kick up late this morning and provide
gusts of 18-20 kts through the daylight hours this afternoon.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........Unger



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