Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 161133

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
533 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017




Surface ridge has shifted east of Middle Tennessee, with much
welcome return flow now establishing itself, although we`ll have
to endure one more cold morning. The southerly flow will start to
bear fruit a few hours from now as temperatures warm into the
50`s most areas across the mid state. In spite of copious and
well- deserved sunshine today, things will change quickly. A
shortwave currently brewing over northern Mexico will gain steam
over the next 24 hours and move rapidly toward the northeast and
bring rain to the mid state on Sunday. A few echoes may slip
across the Tennessee River prior to 12Z Sunday, but the primary
focus appears to be 12-18Z Sunday. The deepest moisture will pull
east of Middle Tennessee after 18Z, with lesser POP`s lingering
into the afternoon and evening. The forecast surface pattern
really doesn`t portend any sort of frontal passage until late
Tuesday or Tuesday evening, so look for temperatures to continue
escalating until the middle of next week, when we`ll see a slight,
brief cooling trend. Both the ECMWF and GFS continue to bring a
much stronger cold front through Middle Tennessee on Friday. That
they are in such good agreement this far out is unusual.



VFR flight rules for the entire TAF period, though there will be a
high cloud deck throughout the day.

Southwesterly winds will kick up late this morning and provide
gusts of 18-20 kts through the daylight hours this afternoon.





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