Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 010450
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1150 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
06Z TAFS...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT N TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10KT WITH A FEW
GUSTS NEAR 15KT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW PATCHES OF FOG ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

UPDATE...
TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...AND WIND DIRECTION/SPEED GRIDS.
CURRENT TEMP TRENDS IN LINE WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST REASONING
BELOW CONCERNING OVERNIGHT LOWS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST CONTINUES
TO BE ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES
HIGHLIGHTED MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, TEMPS HAD ALREADY PUSHED TO BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES
IN THE BNA/CKV AREA. HOWEVER, THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WAS ENJOYING
SOMEWHAT MORE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

MUCH DRIER AIR HAS CONTINUED TO FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY OVER THE LAST 24 HRS AND AT 2 PM CDT DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S OVER ALL BUT THE WESTERN PART OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

CAN`T SEE ANY REASON WHY TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE AS COOL AS THOSE LAST
NIGHT. SO, HAVE BASICALLY GONE WITH SAME LOWS, RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY CHILLIER LOCATIONS OF THE EAST, TO THE
MIDDLE 60S OVER THE WEST.

AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
MID STATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, WITH DRY, BUT SEASONABLY HOT,
AFTERNOONS, AND PLEASANTLY COOL TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DROP A COLD FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY, BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY INTO TUESDAY.
BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE LOCATED INVOF THE FRONT, WITH SOME
TSTMS POSSIBLY WORKING THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE A FEW OF THOSE STORMS
COULD GRAZE OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, THE CONFIDENCE IS SO LOW
AT THIS POINT THAT IT SEEMS THE BEST IDEA TO JUST KEEP A DRY
FORECAST RUNNING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/WED.

EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PUSH INTO THE MISSOURI AREA BY
LATE DAY TUESDAY, ENHANCING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION THERE.
EXPECT THESE STORMS TO PROBABLY HEAD EAST SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY ARRIVE
IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...AFTER PASSAGE OF FIRST UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BELIEVE WE WILL BE BACK IN OUR ALL-TOO-
FAMILIAR NWLY FLOW PATTERN, WITH HOT, HUMID DAYS FOR THE
THURSDAY-TO-FRIDAY PERIOD, AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH PERIOD.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


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