Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 042019
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
319 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS HAVE NOT WANDERED MUCH FROM INDICATING THIS WET PATTERN
WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE FORECAST
LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS IT DID YESTERDAY...EVEN IN REGARDS TO THE
HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES FORECAST THIS EVENING. UPPER SHORTWAVE AXIS
LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE MS RIVER CURRENTLY ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AROUND NORTHERN MS...AND PROGRESSING EASTERLY TOWARDS THE AREA.
MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS IT TRAVELS TO THE EAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
VOID IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF
I40...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH AROUND 40
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE NASHVILLE AREA TONIGHT. SHORT TERM
MODELS LOOK TO FIRE BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH NEAR
THE KY/TN BORDER THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY NOT IMPEDE ON
THE FESTIVITIES. FOR NOW...ISOLATED POP UP STORMS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOOK TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST. WITH SOME LUCK...THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR
THE CLEAR SLOT TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE
BACKSIDE PRECIP CHANCES MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP FROM NOW THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SLIDES EAST. DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD
WATCH FOR MAINLY THE PLATEAU THROUGH 12Z BECAUSE OF THIS. SHORT
TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM ARE PLACING 0.5 TO 1 INCHES OF QPF
OVER THAT REGION OVERNIGHT...SO WILL EXTEND THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET A BREAK FROM
HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES AS SOME NVA MOVES IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW. THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BREAKS DOWN THE DEVELOPING RIDGE.
THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS WE GET
TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL DIFFER
JUST A BIT. THEY DO BOTH HAVE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...BUT STILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION FOR PRECIP CHANCES AT DIFFERENT TIMES. HOPEFULLY THEY LINE
UP A BIT BETTER FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND PROVIDE A BIT DRIER PATTERN
FOR THE AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE SCHC POPS IN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND WE
MAY LUCK OUT WITH MODEL RUNS CONTINUING TO DRY OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  84  69  87 /  50  40  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    67  84  68  87 /  30  30  10  20
CROSSVILLE     66  76  64  81 /  80  70  30  40
COLUMBIA       68  83  68  88 /  70  40  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   67  82  68  86 /  80  50  20  40
WAVERLY        68  84  69  87 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

BARNWELL


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