Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 192258
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
458 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Well, the clouds lingered around a bit longer than anticipated
today, and robbed us of slightly warmer temperatures. Still, no
complaints here as temps are currently in the mid to upper 60s
across the mid state, and thats still above average and much
welcomed in February. With clear to partly cloudy skies looking to
continue tonight, along with light winds and plenty of surface
moisture, widespread fog looks likely again overnight. Just have
areas/patchy mentioned now, but would not be surprised to see
dense fog develop across the area. Monday will see the upper ridge
axis cross overhead, so temps look to be warmer than today, with
most of the mid state seeing low to mid 70s.

Models continue to back off on Tuesday`s rain potential, as well
as slow down timing. Trimmed pops down a bit on Tuesday and
Tuesday night because of this. Rain chances will move in on
Tuesday morning and continue through the day as the upper trough
progresses eastward. It now looks to develop a closed low early
Tuesday morning along the Gulf Coast and slow down as the main
trough continues towards the Atlantic. The GFS really shows
stretching between the trough and the closed low, as does the NAM.
This stretching may limit not only amounts but may make the precip
isolated/scattered across the area. Just have chance pops at best
for now, but this event is not looking like a wetting rain for the
mid state.

Zonal flow settles in aloft for Thursday with a subtle upper level
disturbance that may bring rain to the northeast. Models are
struggling with agreement on this, so just have schc/chc pops for
the day Thursday. Models also have ramped up instability a bit, so
put in mention of thunder during the day Thursday. Friday`s trough
over the Midwest is a little farther north compared to yesterday`s
runs, so this may decrease thunderstorm potential before the front
arrives late Friday night. The GFS and ECMWF still have some
decent MUCAPE around 500 J/kg or so during the late afternoon and
evening, with decent shear values around 60 knots, so some strong
storms look to still be possible Friday afternoon and evening.
Right now it looks to be mainly during the afternoon as the GFS
and now the ECMWF move the instability east out of the area during
the evening Friday.

Flow looks to be mainly zonal to start off the weekend, with
slightly cooler temperatures thanks to fropa from late Friday
night. The weekend will be dry, and by Sunday, southwest flow will
return aloft ahead of the next trough for late Monday. This will
bring WAA back to the region and raise highs from the mid 50s
Saturday to the low 60s on Sunday. On Monday, when precip chances
start knocking at our door and low level winds strengthen, we
could again see highs in the upper 60s before the next trough
brings more chances for showers and thunderstorms late Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...High pressure is building in Middle Tennessee this
afternoon and evening, with mostly clear skies and light/calm
winds. Surface high is centered to our northeast, with return flow
and warmer temperatures setting up tomorrow. In the meantime, look
for radiation cooling overnight owing to the clear skies and
dearth of wind, but with dew points also dropping, only light fog
is expected late tonight and early Monday morning.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......19
AVIATION........08


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