Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KOHX 310850
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
350 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Broad upper level troughing will again be in place today. We do see
a change to a more northerly upper level flow by Sunday night as
upper ridging builds over TX.

Low chances of convection again today as afternoon caps diminish.
However, cape values are on the low side despite neutral to slightly
favorable omega values at 00z. The slight chance of shower and tstm
activity will continue into tonight. It`s important to note,
however, that the nam and gfs solutions differ considerably for late
Sunday night and into Monday. A closer look at the Nam shows the
emergence of a stronger upper impulse for late tonight and int
Monday. GFS shows it as well but is much weaker with the feature.
The Euro solution is leaning toward the GFS scenario. Will go ahead
and lean toward lower 20 pops as ISC looks like 30 at best.

On Monday...will include 30 pops as our upper and mid level flow
become more northerly and we see a slight bump in instability
levels.

Over the ext period, upper ridging over TX will strengthen and shift
east. Maximum ridge exertion will top pout across the mid state on
Thursday. At that time 850 mb temps will reach 21-22c, so that will
likely be our warmest day, 94 or so in nashville. Otw, despite the
upper highs placement, low level high pressure over the srn MS
valley will be weakening. This will allow low level moisture to
undercut the ridge. Thus, we will keep low pops going through the
period. By the end of the ext period, the upper ridge will still b
in place but we will see it begin to weaken a touch.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions for a couple more hours when vis should begin to
degrade, especially at KCKV/KCSV. IFR to LIFR vis is possible as
we near day break with plenty of low level moisture and calm
winds. VFR flight rules will return to all 3 terminals by 15Z
Sunday with light southwesterly winds. Some thunderstorms will be
possible on Sunday afternoon, however small coverage will preclude
from including anything in a prevailing line.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      91  72  92  72  93 /  20  20  30  20  20
Clarksville    90  70  92  71  93 /  20  20  30  20  20
Crossville     85  67  86  67  87 /  20  20  30  20  20
Columbia       91  71  91  71  94 /  20  20  30  20  20
Lawrenceburg   91  71  90  71  93 /  20  20  30  20  20
Waverly        91  71  92  71  93 /  20  20  30  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........Hurley



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.