Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
FXUS64 KOHX 192307
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
507 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
An active weather pattern continues through the weekend for Middle
TN. Currently, a sfc low is lifting along a warm front near the
Kentucky/ Missouri border. At this point the warm front has
cleared our CWA. Middle TN has seen temperature rise from the low
50s into the 60s with the warm front passage despite widespread
rain. A negatively tilted trough has spread ample lift into the
area leading to widespread moderate rain with scattered downpours.
As the trough axis swings north of the area rain will diminish
southwest to northeast this evening and overnight.
Weak ridging will build into the area during the daylight hours on
Friday. As a result, after a couple stray showers Friday morning,
the rest of the day will be dry with highs in the mid and upper 60s.
A subtle disturbance embedded in southwest upper flow will approach
the area Saturday leading to another chance of rain. The best chance
of rain will be the south and east portions of the CWA. Models have
been consistent in showing some instability with this round of rain
so thunder was mentioned.
Another southern stream trough will become cutoff from the upper
flow and traverse east across the Mid South on Sunday. GFS and
Euro are not in agreement with the surface low as the GFS
tracks the low directly over our area which would lead to
widespread moderate to heavy rain. The Euro tracks the low farther
south and is a lot less aggressive with precipitation amounts for
our area. Temperatures this weekend will include lows in the mid
50s and highs spanning the 60s. MEX guidance shows highs on Sunday
in the mid 60s but with the vicinity of the upper low, a cooler
solution was used.
Behind Sunday`s system, winds will turn northwesterly and increase
to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph Sunday night through Monday
morning before relaxing as the weekend system pulls off from the
east coast. High temperatures on Monday will be more seasonable
with highs mainly in the lower 50s. After Monday, the next rain
chance will be Wednesday as a front moves through the area. This
front will not have much moisture to work with so only a slight
chance is warranted. By the end of next week, a Great Lakes
through will dig far enough south to finally get us below the
freezing mark again.
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/CKV/CSV...A broad area of rain and low clouds is blanketing
the mid state as a warm front has developed just to our north.
Conditions will continue to deteriorate during the evening and
overnight as IFR/LIFR ceilings develop in the moist boundary
layer. Also expect some LLWS this evening at CSV as above-surface
winds are a little stronger there. Rain will end from west to east
overnight, but we won`t see ceilings improve much until after
12Z. So expect a dearth of good flying weather until tomorrow.