Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 281456
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
956 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE CWA BUT EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN AREAWIDE
SHORTLY. MODELS INCLUDING THE 06Z GFS...00Z ECMWF...AND 12Z HRRR
ALL DEVELOP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID STATE WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
PRESENT...AND HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY.
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF I-40 AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
KY BORDER. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO
OTHER NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
LIGHT FOG AROUND THE MID-STATE WILL CLEAR BY 14Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RUNNING WELL INTO THE EVENING. DEEPER MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO SINK DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH HALF LATER TODAY...
AND A FEW VCNTY STORMS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY CKV. THIS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. LATE NIGHT LARGELY MVFR FOG EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP CKV/CSV.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH NOW CENTERED OVER FL AND THE BAHAMAS. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
TOWARD THE NW ACROSS TN. SUBSIDENCE WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG TOWARD THE
SOUTH TODAY BUT A HIGHER DEGREE OF MOISTURE WILL HANG ON ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. IN FACT...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS ONCE
AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS NORTH HALF.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. BUT
INITIALLY...DRIER AIR FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD. THUS...WE WILL SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY PERIOD WITH
RATHER LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WE`LL FINALLY SEE THE MOISTURE BEGIN TO
SURGE NORTHWARD WITH THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS. ON SATURDAY...A SERIES
OF IMPULSES WILL BEGIN TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MOISTURE
CHANNEL AND BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
WILL DEVIATE ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE.

IN THE EXT FCST...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS
WELL. THEN...WE WILL SEE THE UPPER HIGH EXPAND WESTWARD AND POPS
WILL THEREBY DROP TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE HERE AND THERE.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN WITH TIME WITH
850 MB THERMAL PARAMETERS ON THE UPSWING. SHOULD SEE MID 90S BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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