Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 021030
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...

FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

BIG CHANGES SETTING UP THIS PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE MID-SOUTH LATE. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY/
TONIGHT AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON CKV VCNTY. THINGS BECOME MUCH MORE ORGANIZED LATE
TONIGHT AND SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CKV/BNA AND
POSSIBLY CSV BY 12Z/FRI. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
A LARGE PART OF THE PERIOD...WITH DETERIORATION 06-12Z TIMEFRAME.
CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY TO BE MVFR RANGE BY 12Z. APPROACHING BOUNDARY
WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO CKV/BNA LATER TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ARE HOLDING IN THE 60S.
FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE GAINING STRENGTH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ON APPROACH TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. POPS AT THIS TIME WILL BE AT THE CATEGORICAL
LEVEL. AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT POTENTIAL...THE SYSTEM LOOKS
MINIMALLY SEVERE. THE FORCING STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL OCCUR IN
BOTH THE PRE FRONTAL SECTOR LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF ON FRIDAY MORNING...POST SUNRISE. SHOWALTERS ARE CLOSER TO
ZERO LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE THOUGH
MIDDAY ON FRIDAY SO THAT THE PLATEAU AREA MAY SEE THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FROPA. LLJ APPEARS TO
RUN AROUND 40 KTS THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY
STRONG STORMS WITH A FEW TREES KNOCKED DOWN HERE AND THE. AS FOR THE
QPF POTENTIAL...STILL LOOKS LIKE 1 TO PERHAPS 1 1/2 INCHES FOR MOST
AREAS.

PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH BEHIND THE FROPA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST. NOT MUCH PRECIP EXPECTED IN THE POST FRONTAL SECTOR AS
DIRECTIONAL DISPLACEMENTS IN THE SFC-850MB LEVEL LOOKS MINIMAL.
FURTHERMORE...THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH ENERGY DISPLAYS MORE INT HE
WAY OF NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE VORT ADVECTION. THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE
MINIMAL FOR THE PLATEAU ONLY FOR FRI EVENING.

THE PREVAILING AIRMASS WILL RATHER COOL COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST WEEK. UPPER TROUGHING DOES POSSESS SOME
RATHER STRONG AMPLIFICATION WITH SOME DEEP THERMAL TROUGHING. THIS
WILL ALL EQUATE TO A VERY NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FOR SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS DOWN CLOSE TO ZERO C...HIGH TEMPS
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER 60S FOR MANY
AREAS. A 10 TO 15 MPH W TO NW WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.
SFC HIGH WILL BE IN REASONABLY CLOSE PROXIMITY ON SUNDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST AREAS WITH EVEN A FEW MID 30S READINGS ALONG
THE PLATEAU. ON DOWN THE ROAD...WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY FOR THE PLATEAU FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK
UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. STILL LOOKING AT SOME UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WITHIN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH BY MIDWEEK. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED...UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH LOWER 80S BY WED AND THU.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07




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