Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 260208
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
908 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
In the wake of the strong cold front moving through our region
Saturday afternoon, cooler air will settle in over the region. High
pressure then builds south of the region on Sunday before moving
offshore on Monday. Low pressure approaching from the west will lift
a warm front through the region on Tuesday. The aforementioned low
will propagate from the Great Lakes region into eastern Canada.
The associated cold front will move through Wednesday night or
Thursday. A quick moving low pressure system will slide over the
Mid Atlantic at the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
The cold front has moved offshore and the strong convection
that was associated with it has moved offshore as well. There
still remains some isolated/scattered showers developing across
central/southern New Jersey as well as Delaware and Maryland
this evening. These are associated with a weak embedded short
wave in the southwest flow aloft, which is creating just enough
lift to interact with some left over low level moisture. This
moisture should skirt off the coast in the next couple of hours,
and the showers should dissipate around midnight or shortly
there after.

There is also some showers moving down into our area from the
northwest in the west/northwest flow. These should impact the
far northern portions of our area, generally I-80 northward
during this evening and into the early morning hours.
Temperatures are already cooling, and cooler temperatures are
moving in from our west as well, so some snow showers could mix
in at times across the Poconos and northwest New Jersey this
evening and overnight.

Otherwise we expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and gusty
winds to continue through the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Surface high will move through the Southeast on Sunday, but the
pressure gradient on the northeast side of the high will permit
a rather breezy day across the area, especially during the
morning hours. Cold air advection on the upstream side of the
potent vort max moving through the area today will make for a
sharply colder day. High temperatures are forecast to be near
seasonal averages, or about 30 degrees colder than what we saw
today.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Few changes made in the long term so as to focus on current hazards
this evening.

Unsettled weather pattern is on tap through the week.

Monday and Tuesday are very low confidence especially with respect
to precip chances. As long as the high isn`t more progressive in
shifting off shore, during the day Monday should stay dry. Monday
night into Tuesday there is low confidence as to the extent of rain
ahead of the arrival of the warm front and with the timing of the
warm front. Models have continued their run-to-run jumpiness with
the timing of this front.

Wednesday and Wednesday night looks to be the highest chance of
precip with the region solidly in the warm sector. Thunderstorms may
be possible as well if we can warm up enough to realize some modest
surface based instability.

Cold front still on track to move through late Wedensday night or
Thursday. Once it moves through, we should see a lull in the precip,
albeit a brief one.

The next question will be the timing and track of a quick moving low
which could move across the region Friday or Friday night. Moisture
may be limited as there will be strong dry air advection behind the
cold front, but there is some chance for precip around the area.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

The cold front has moved offshore and the strong storms that
were associated have moved away as well. VFR conditions have
returned to the TAF sites and are expected to remain VFR through
the period. Scattered to broken clouds of 4,000-7,000 feet will
continue tonight through tomorrow.

Winds have switched to WNW with speeds 5-10 knots. The gusts
have dropped off for many locations, but the gusts are expected
to increase at times through the evening and early morning
hours. Winds will continue to be gusty during the day tomorrow,
with gusts 20-30 kts possible.

Outlook... Sunday night and Monday...VFR conditions expected.

Monday night through Thursday...periods of rain and showers are
possible. When/if this does occur, MVFR ceilings or lower are
possible. Highest chance is Wednesday and Wednesday night. There is
considerable forecast uncertainty in this period.

&&

.MARINE...
The cold front has moved offshore and the strong convection
associated with it is moving away from the area. There will
continue to be some isolate/scattered showers through the rest
of the evening and early morning hours.

Winds will increase through this evening and into the overnight
hours as weak cold advection begins to take place with the the
west northwest flow. It looks like we will have a 4-6 hour
window overnight where winds could gust around 35 knots across
the southern half of the waters. Therefore we`ve upgraded the
Delware Bay and the Delaware and New Jersey coastal waters from
Little Egg southward to a Gale Warning. The Small Craft Advisory
north of Little Egg remains the same.

Outlook...
Sunday night and Monday...wind gusts to 25 kt may
linger for a few hours on Sunday evening, but will be below SCA
criteria for the remainder of this period.

Tuesday through Wednesday...winds and seas should generally stay
below SCA criteria, though wind gusts above 20kt will be possible on
Wednesday. Periods of rain/showers possible, especially on Wednesday.

Wednesday night and Thursday...Northwesterly wind gusts around 25 kt
are possible

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ430-431-452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...CMS/Robertson
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...CMS/Johnson/Robertson
Marine...CMS/Johnson/Robertson



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