Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 312354
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
654 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)

Cold air was spreading across the Ozarks Region this afternoon as
north breezes were gusting up to 30 mph at times.

This airmass originated from northern Canada, and will create a
hard freeze tonight into Saturday morning. Temperatures will fall
into the low to mid 20s, under clear skies and light winds.

Despite the return of southerly winds and sunshine on Saturday,
temperatures will struggle to warm out of the 40s in most
locations. Readings in the 50s are possible near Joplin and
Neosho.

No rain possible through Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)

Showers and thunderstorms return to the Ozarks Region by Monday.
Models are in good agreement with the gradual approach of a
positively tilted long wave trough. This feature will force a
large band of convection from Texas up into the Great Lakes.

Widespread rainfall amounts will range from one to two inches
Monday through Tuesday night.

Models have sped up the passage of this wave, suggesting rain will
end northwest to southeast Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Beyond Tuesday night, the ECMWF and GFS diverge in handling an
upper level cutoff wave over Texas. The GFS progresses it across
the deep south, leaving the Ozarks Region dry. The ECMWF pulls it
north and creates a pattern for rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight and
Saturday. Surface high pressure will build into region tonight
resulting in diminishing winds. Surface winds will shift to the
east and southeast on Saturday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING until 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING until 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Foster






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