Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 130522

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1122 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

The series of dry frontal passages and fluctuating temperatures
will continue. Surface high pressure will build into the region
tonight then slide to the southeast Wednesday as the next dry cold
front moves across the region. Mild temperatures, increasing wind
and low relative humidity values will again result in elevated
fire weather conditions Wednesday. At this time it appears we will
remain below Red Flag thresholds but will be something to monitor

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

Temperatures will cool back down Wednesday night and Thursday in
the wake of the passing cold front. Highs Thursday will generally
be around 40 degrees. A warming trend will return as we head into
Saturday as southerly surface winds return. We will continue to
closely monitor fire weather conditions as the fire weather risk
will range from limited to elevated on a daily basis.

Medium range models suggest a more pronounced upper level trough
will drop southeastward this weekend allowing for surface
cyclogenesis over the Lower Mississippi River valley and some
moisture return. Details are uncertain at this time but it appears
there will be at least a chance of precipitation across southern
Missouri into the eastern Ozarks Saturday night and Sunday. Some
wintry mix cannot be ruled out but forecast confidence on the
evolution of this system is very low at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

VFR flight conditions are expected through the TAF period. Bufkit
soundings showing the potential for low level wind shear late tonight
as pressure gradienT tightens and surface winds remain light.
These stronger winds will mix down to the surface later this
morning with southwest winds gusting to near 30 knots. A cold
front will push through the region and winds will switch around to
the west northwest this afternoon and begin to diminish after
22Z. &&



LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Raberding is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.