Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 282312
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
512 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 232 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

The clouds have almost cleared completely out of the Missouri
Ozarks. They were still holding on to parts of south central
Missouri as of mid afternoon. Surface high pressure was currently
located over northeast Oklahoma and will slowly move eastward
across southern Missouri tonight. With clear skies...light
winds...and dewpoints in the lower to middle 20s...that is where
the overnight lows will likely end up tonight. Tomorrow will be
another seasonable day with some high clouds increasing late in
the day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 232 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

There is a stronger cold front that just moved out of Canada into
the northern Plains this afternoon. That front will be moving
through our area Monday night. Strong cold air advection will take
over late Monday night and Tuesday. Temperatures will be sub
freezing at most locations starting Tuesday morning through
Thursday. There is some signal for some snow flurries possible
late Monday night into early on Tuesday morning. This will not
have any impacts but wouldn`t be surprise to have reports of
flurries with the colder air moving in early Tuesday morning.
Highs will be in the 20s and lower 30s with overnight lows in the
teens and wind chills in the single digits for the middle part of
the week.

We are still watching trends in the guidance and solutions for the
end of the week system. The overall 12z suite of models are in
agreement of the system to begin to affect the area Thursday night
into Friday morning. The GFS is the further north with the track
and much faster with timing. The GEM and ECMWF is slower and
further south with the track. There is disagreement and
uncertainty of exact precip types...timing...and...amounts.

With this forecast update...will mention the potential is
increasing for a wintry mix of possibly freezing
rain...sleet...and snow beginning Thursday night into early Friday
morning. The thermal profiles suggest it will start off with a
snow and sleet mix with warmer air aloft slowly moving in
changing it to a sleet and possibly freezing rain mix and then all
rain on Friday as surface temperatures warm above freezing into
the upper 30s.

With cold temperatures for a couple days before this event...the
ground and road temperatures will be cold as well. There could be
a potential for travel impacts Thursday night into early Friday
morning before temperatures warm up above freezing. Amounts and
precip types are still in question and will need to be fine tuned
over the next few days as models get a better handle of the
system. The system will exit the area on Saturday with seasonable
temperatures expected next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 506 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

VFR conditions expected at all aerodromes through the forecast
period. Surface high pressure currently moving through the region
for responsible for the clear skies and light winds. Winds will
gradually veer around to a more easterly direction around mid-
morning on Monday but remain below 10 kts through the remainder of
the forecast period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gaede






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