Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 101804
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1204 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Surface high pressure is starting to move east of the region this
morning. With south winds increasing and low level cloud cover
overspreading the western half of the CWA, temperatures are quite
a bit more mild at this hour compared to 24 hours ago.

Those south winds will help usher in somewhat warmer temperatures
today, with highs expected to range from the mid 40s over
southwestern Missouri to the upper 30s over the eastern Ozarks and
central Missouri. Cloud cover is expected to be variable today,
with occasional breaks in the stratus.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the 30s, though are expected
to remain above freezing for all but the far eastern reaches of
the forecast area. Light rain and/or drizzle will begin around
sunrise Sunday morning. There will be a very small window for a
bit of freezing drizzle across the eastern Ozarks early Sunday,
but for most areas, temperatures are expected to be above freezing
before any precipitation begins.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 235 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Drizzle and light rain will expand in coverage and intensity
through the day Sunday as a mid level wave and surface front
approach from the west. Precipitation is expected to reach its
peak during the late afternoon and early evening across south
central Missouri, though even here, rainfall amounts aren`t
expected to be much more than a tenth of an inch or so.

Winds will become northerly for a short time once the front
passes Sunday night, with low temperatures then falling back into
the 20s by daybreak Monday. The post frontal airmass doesn`t look
to be too cold with this frontal passage, and the surface high
will quickly push east of the area by Monday afternoon. Temps
Monday will still remain mild, with readings in the mid to even
upper 40s.

Another, stronger frontal passage is then expected Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening, with a considerably colder airmass
building into the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Highs
Wednesday look to remain around freezing. The latest model
guidance points toward a generally dry fropa on Tuesday/Tuesday
night, though a few flurries aren`t out of the question.

The latter portion of the workweek then looks to feature
temperatures below average, with expansive Canadian high pressure
across the Nation`s mid section Thursday. Highs during this time
look to remain around the freezing mark, with lows in the teens.

More active weather is then expected heading into next weekend,
with precipitation chances looking to increase Friday into
Saturday. Precipitation type is very much in question at this
juncture, with a lot depending on the eventual strength of the
retreating surface high, timing of precipitation, and eventual
strength and location of any warm nose aloft. Depending on how
things shake out, there looks to be at least some potential for
wintry precipitation during this time. Exact type(s) and amounts
won`t be able to be resolved for at least several more days,
however.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

A Rather expansive area of Stratocumulus was in place over the
region this afternoon. VFR ceilings will continue into this
evening as a result though some locations may scatter out for a
time. Ceilings will begin to fall to MVFR levels by Sunday
morning as gusty southerly surface winds bring additional
moisture into the Ozarks region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Hatch



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