Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 280454

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1154 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

/06Z TAFS/

Low level jet was very strong, with the KSJT VAD indicating 55
KTS in the lowest gate and 70 KTS in the 3rd. KDYX was 35 KTS in
the 1st gate with also 70 KT in the 3rd. Have mention of LLWS in
all but KABI tonight, though with winds already gusting to 30 KTS
at KSJT it may not be necessary. Wind shear lessens around 9Z as
a surface trough moves through, with surface winds shifting
southwest and weakening by sunrise.

MVFR stratus will moving in around 9Z across southern terminals
and should move east/scatter out by 16Z as the surface through
move through.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 648 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/

/00Z TAFS/

Gusty south winds will gradually decrease this evening and
overnight, except for Abilene, which will continue to see the
strongest winds with gusts to 30 KTS until late tonight. MVFR
stratus otherwise is expected to return to terminals along the
I-10 corridor and KBBD late night into mid morning Friday as low
level moisture returns. Patches of stratus are possible as far
north as KSJT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/

(Tonight and Friday)

Expect gusty south to southwest winds to slowly decrease through the
overnight hours with overnight low temperatures in the low to mid
60s. Stratus development is expected after midnight, which will
overspread the southern half of the forecast area. A weak cold front
will move into the Big Country during the morning hours, with the
the only effect being a wind shift to the north at 5 to 10 mph.

Morning cloud will quickly dissipate by mid to late morning as a
dryline quickly advances east, making it into our far eastern
counties by early afternoon. Expect afternoon high temperatures well
above seasonal normals, along with west to southwest winds of 10 to
15 mph. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s, with a few
locations approaching the upper 90s. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the extreme northeast portions
of the Big Country, although most of the convection is forecast to
remain east of the forecast area.


(Friday Night)

.Possible Severe Thunderstorms...

The dryline, interacting with an old frontal boundary just to our
north, could initiate a few severe thunderstorms Friday night.
The main area of concern lies mainly north and east of a
Sweetwater to Brownwood line. That`s where a so-called triple
point will be near; the tipple point is the point where the
dryline meets the old frontal boundary.

(Saturday and Saturday Night)

.Rain Potential Continues...

As the upper lows continues to move out of the southern Rockies
and into the Southern Plains Saturday and Saturday night, the
associated upper trough will move over West Central Texas. This
trough, along with a weak surface cold front and dryline, will
create the potential for additional showers and thunderstorms,
across West Central Texas. Although the threat of severe
thunderstorms will push east of our area Saturday night, some
thunderstorms could produce damaging hail and winds.

(Sunday through Thursday)

For Sunday into late next week, look for dry conditions, with
some temperature swings. As the upper low continues its eastward
migration on Sunday, cooler air behind its associated cold front
will help hold afternoon highs mainly in the mid 60s to lower 70s
range; that`s much closer to seasonal normals. Then, as the upper-
level pattern modifies, and high pressure becomes more dominate,
southerly low-level flow will return and signal the start of a
warming trend. This warm-up will then continue through mid week.
However, another cold front, during the day Wednesday, will bring
winds from the north and cooler air.


Abilene  65  92  66  75 /   0  10  30  30
San Angelo  67  98  68  82 /   0   5  30  20
Junction  66  96  69  85 /   0   5  10  20
Brownwood  65  92  69  80 /   0  10  20  30
Sweetwater  63  92  59  71 /   0   5  30  30
Ozona       64  95  68  82 /   0   5  20  20




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