Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 022321
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
621 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect flight conditions to deteriorate across the southern
terminals overnight, as stratus around 1200 feet develops. By
early afternoon, and morning stratus will have dissipate, with
gusty south winds near 20 knots developing by afternoon. A stray
shower or thunderstorm may approach KABI during the
afternoon/evening, but confidence in this was not high enough to
include in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

An upper high will be centered over the Great Basin through
tomorrow with the forecast area under a north to northwest flow
aloft. Models continue to show an upper level disturbance now over
the Panhandle moving in the flow aloft into the Big Country this
evening. Will continue to carry a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms during the overnight hours in the northern Big country
associated with this initial disturbance. As additional disturbances
traverse the area tomorrow, will expand the coverage area a little
further south with the southern extent roughing coinciding with the
Interstate 20 corridor. The remainder of West central Texas should
remain dry.

Cloud cover will increase over the area through tomorrow. Given the
increase in cloud cover, overnight lows will be somewhat warmer than
last night with lows generally in the lower 70s. Likewise, afternoon
highs tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler than today with highs
ranging from the upper 80s over the Interstate 10 corridor to around
90 and into the lower 90s over the remainder of the area.

15

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)

A cold front will be located in the vicinity of the Red River Friday
evening, with showers and thunderstorms developing along the
boundary. A few of these storms might sneak into our northern
counties Friday night or Saturday, but expect most of the activity
to remain north of West Central Texas. Slight chance PoPs were
retained for this period, mainly across the northern Big Country.
High temperatures on Saturday, July 4th, will generally be in the
low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the 70s. Seasonably hot
temperatures can be expected on Sunday with highs in the low to mid
90s. Breezy conditions are expected with south winds of 10 to 20
mph, with higher gusts.

Our next opportunity for rainfall will come late Monday through
Wednesday as the upper level ridge weakens and a shear zone develops
across West Texas. In the meantime, a potent upper level trough will
swing across the Northern Plains on Monday, sending a cold front
into north Texas late Monday. Just how far south this front makes it
is the main question, with the ECMWF/Canadian more aggressive with
the boundary bringing it into or just north of West Central Texas,
while the GFS continues to be less aggressive. Given the forecasted
weakening of the upper level ridge and convection along the front,
the current thinking is that showers and thunderstorms should make
it into at least our northern/western counties. Pops for this time
frame were increased into the 20-40 percent range, but may need to
be adjusted as better model consensus is reached.

Beyond Wednesday, an upper level ridge builds back over West Central
Texas with dry conditions returning to the area. Temperatures
through the end of the week will generally be near seasonal normals.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  92  73  93  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
San Angelo  72  90  71  92  72 /  10  10  10   5   5
Junction  71  90  70  90  73 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Doll






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