Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 232049

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
349 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

(Tonight and Friday)

Gusty south winds will continue across the area through the evening
hours and did not make any change, with Wind Advisory conditions s
to the current Wind Advisory that is in effect until 1 AM Friday.
The main challenge in the short term period will be convective
chances late this evening and overnight as lift from an upper trough
interacts with an eastward moving dryline/Pacific front. The Hi-Res
models have been fairly anemic concerning convective development
across our area, with perhaps a broken line of showers and a few
embedded thunderstorms entering far western counties by late evening
and moving across the rest of the area overnight. Will keep chance
POPs going for tonight, tapering off across southeast sections by
mid morning. Basically a high shear, low CAPE environment overnight
and while a strong storm or two is possible, the severe weather
threat is expected to rather low.

Gusty southwest to west winds and a much drier airmass will filter
into the area on Friday. This will set the stage for critical fire
weather conditions across much of the area. Please reference the Fire
Weather Watch that has been issued for Friday. A Wind Advisory will
likely be needed again for a good portion of the area Friday
afternoon. Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Friday but still
above normal, with afternoon highs around 80 degrees.

(Friday night through Thursday)

Ideal radiational cooling conditions are expected Saturday morning,
with overnight low temperatures dropping into the mid 40s for most
locations. Temperatures in low lying areas and river valleys may
drop into the low 40s. High temperatures on Saturday will range from
the mid 70s across the Big Country to the upper 70s to lower 80s

An upper level shortwave trough will approach the Central Plains
Sunday night into Monday. Ahead of this system, a dryline will
move through much of the forecast area Sunday, with west winds
increasing to 15 to 25 mph. High temperatures will be well above
seasonal normals, in the mid to upper 80s. A cold front will move
through the area Monday morning, resulting in gusty north winds
and slightly cooler temperatures. Highs will mainly be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along the front across mainly the
northwest Hill Country, where better moisture will reside.

A more potent upper level low is forecast to move into the Desert
Southwest late Tuesday into Wednesday, then approach West Central
Texas late Wednesday into Thursday. Models are coming into better
agreement with the track of this system, although timing differences
continue. The ECMWF has trended deeper with the system, but is still
about 12 hours faster than the GFS. Given the better consistency,
PoPs were trended up for the Tuesday night through Wednesday night
time frame. The details on the possibility of strong to severe
storms, along with locally heavy rainfall, will become more apparent
as we get closer to the event.


Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop across much
of the area on Friday, as a much drier airmass filters in behind a
Pacific front that will move across the area overnight. Sustained
southwest to west winds of 20 to 25 mph, with gusts to 35 mph are
expected to develop from late morning through the afternoon hours,
with relative humidities dropping into the 15 to 20 percent range.
The combination of strong winds and low relative humidities will
create dangerous fire weather conditions for much of the area, with
any fires quickly becoming uncontrollable. Based on latest model
guidance, the Fire Weather Watch has been expanded to include all
but the far southeast portion of the forecast area on Friday. The
Watch includes those areas generally north and west of a Brownwood
to Sonora line.


Abilene  58  79  46  76 /  40   5   0   0
San Angelo  57  81  47  81 /  40   5   0   0
Junction  60  82  47  82 /  40  20   0   0
Brownwood  59  80  47  78 /  40  20   0   0
Sweetwater  55  78  48  76 /  40   0   0   0
Ozona       55  79  47  80 /  40   0   0   0


Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-
Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for Brown-Callahan-Coke-
McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-
Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.



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