Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 231131
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
631 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions and light winds across all the terminals for
the next 24 hours. A weak cold front will move through the area
this afternoon. The winds will shift to the northwest as the front
passes. The front will pass through the northern terminals
between 19-20z then through the southern terminals by 22z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 457 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The quiet weather will continue across West Texas today under
sunny skies. The region will be under the influence of dry
northwest flow aloft, as a deepening trough over the Mississippi
River valley remains to our northeast. At the surface, an exiting
high pressure system will keep the region under weak southerly
flow throughout the day. A weak cold front will move through the
area by mid afternoon, beginning in the Big Country, then moving
to the south and east. Ahead of the front, compressional heating
will allow for temperatures to climb into the mid 80s across the
Concho Valley and points south. Behind the front, temperatures in
the Big Country will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. With weak
cold air advection behind the front, a big cool down as the front
passes through is not expected. Mixing of the winds and the
departure of the surface high will help keep overnight
temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

Dry and cool weather is on tap for Tuesday behind the expected
cold front this evening. Skies will be sunny Tuesday, with breezy
north winds and after highs only in the lower 70s. Surface high
pressure will settle over the area Tuesday night, allowing for
ideal radiational cooling as winds go light, under clear skies
and a dry airmass. Winds may not fully decouple but will be light
enough to minimize mixing and allow temperatures to drop into the
lower 40s by daybreak Wednesday, with a few readings in the upper
30s possible.

Temperatures will rebound on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of more
significant cold front that will affect the area Thursday night.
Skies will be sunny both days, with highs on Wednesday in the
upper 70s, warming well into the 80s ahead of the front on
Thursday. The cold front is still on track to move across the
area Thursday night, clearing the I-10 corridor prior to daybreak
Friday. The ECMWF is now faster with the progression of the upper
trough by this time and is now in line with the drier GFS
solution. Could still see a few showers affect far southeast
sections Friday night as the upper trough swings through, so
will keep slight POPs intact across the northwest Hill Country
counties for now.

A much cooler airmass will filter into the region behind the
cold front for Friday through the weekend. Daytime highs will be
in the 60s, with overnight lows in the mid/upper 30s Friday night
and in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees for Saturday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  49  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  86  48  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  84  49  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  83  48  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  79  50  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       83  48  71  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

40/99/40



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