Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 300834
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
330 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014
(Today and Tonight)
The upper-level cyclone that aided in the development of showers and
thunderstorms across the region the past 2 days is moving rapidly
northeast across the Great Lakes. However, another shortwave trough
is moving out of the Rockies this morning, easily distinguished on
the water vapor loop by the ascent spreading into western KS,
south into the TX Panhandle. This wave is progged to continue moving
east-southeast across the Southern Plains today. While ascent will
not be all that strong, we will maintain a moist boundary layer and
weak static stability owing to the relatively cool temps aloft.
Isolated showers (and a few thunderstorms) are expected this
afternoon. Because there is no well defined low-level forcing
mechanism, 10-20% PoPs were basically broadbrushed across the area
southeast of a line from Barnhart, to Bronte, to Throckmorton. Any
additional rainfall amounts will be light given the relatively
shallow nature of the convection. Expect afternoon temperatures
generally in the mid 90s.
Isolated convection may last into the evening hours, but should wane
a few hours after sunset. The best chance of precipitation this
evening looks to be along and south of an Ozona to San Saba line.
However, coverage is expected to be limited, so PoPs remain less
than 20%. Temperatures will fall into the lower 70s across much of
West Central TX with a few low-lying areas potentially reaching the
(Sunday through Friday)
With upper level ridging remaining over the forecast area through
the coming week, the forecast for West Central Texas will be hot and
dry. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s will cool to the lower
to mid 90s by the middle of next week, close to normal for this time
of year. Morning lows will cool a few degrees also, from the lower
to mid 70s to the lower 70s by midweek. This is only a few degrees
warmer than normal.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 94 73 96 75 96 / 10 5 0 5 5
San Angelo 96 71 96 73 97 / 10 5 5 5 0
Junction 95 72 95 74 95 / 20 10 10 5 5