Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 242359

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
559 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

/00Z TAFS/

Low level southerly flow will transport stratus north and cover
West Central Texas by late this evening. Current 11-3.9 micron
satellite imagery indicates low clouds across the Heartland and
I-10 corridor. Expect MVFR ceilings at the terminals the next 24
hours, however will remain VFR for a few more hours at KABI and
KSJT. Also, ceilings will lower to IFR between 06Z and 17Z at the
southern terminals. The winds will be south with gusts of 20 to 25


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015/

(Tonight and Wednesday)

Low clouds have been slow to erode across much of West Central TX
today. In fact, ceilings around 2,500 ft persist across the
northwest Hill Country into the Brownwood area. Dewpoints have
maintained a steady climb this afternoon, reaching the lower 50s
across the I-10 corridor. This trend will continue overnight as a
strong low-level jet sets up after sunset. Isentropic ascent will
intensify tonight, resulting in a rapid return of low clouds this
evening and pathcy drizzle after midnight. The combination of
increasing moisture, gusty winds, and overcast skies will keep
temperatures in the 50s tonight.

Isentropic ascent will continue throughout the day tomorrow, with
southerly winds continuing through the period. Despite the cloud
cover, strong warm advection will help afternoon temperatures warm
into the low to mid 70s. There is a potential for light rain
throughout the day, but rainfall amounts through tomorrow afternoon
will remain on the light side.


(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

An upper low will be centered roughly over Nevada into the coming
weekend before finally lifting northeast over the Central/Northern
Plains by the first of next week. In the meantime, the forecast
area will remain in a southwest flow aloft with an abundance of
low to mid level moisture flowing over the area. The primary
source of the moisture will come from the Pacific, associated with
tropical storm Sandra, soon to be hurricane Sandra, as it moves
northeast toward the southern Baja. Accordingly, rainfall chances
will continue to increase Wednesday night into the coming weekend.
In addition, a cold front will push into the northern Big Country
around midnight Thursday and is expected to push completely
through the forecast area by Friday evening. As temperatures drop
to near the freezing point over the western Big Country there is a
chance of a freezing rain mix generally along and west of a line
from Sweetwater to Haskell after midnight Friday into Saturday
morning. The remainder of the forecast area will not see any
frozen precipitation.

As the remnants of Sandra dissipates over the mountains of Mexico
and the upper low finally begins to move into the northern Plains,
rain chances will end from west to east across the forecast area
during the day on Sunday. The coolest day will be Saturday with
highs only in the upper 30s to around 40 over all of the forecast
area. Highs will return to the upper 40s and lower 50s Sunday with
mid to upper 50s Monday and Tuesday. Morning lows will be in the
30s Saturday morning through Monday morning.



Abilene  55  73  61  71 /  10  20  30  60
San Angelo  56  74  64  75 /  10  20  30  50
Junction  56  71  64  73 /  10  20  30  60


.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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