Area Forecast Discussion
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191
FXUS62 KTAE 071057
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
557 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Thursday]...

An overcast MVFR deck has reached all of the terminals except TLH
as of 11Z and it could briefly impact that airport as well this
morning. Ceilings could briefly dip to IFR at DHN. Ceilings will
scatter out from south to north from midday through the afternoon
hours. Winds will generally be northwesterly under 10 kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [305 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

With the warm and humid air mass of recent days now displaced well
to our south and a much colder air mass lurking well to our
northwest, we will find ourselves in between today with drier air
and fairly mild temperatures. Afternoon temps should rebound to the
mid 60s north and lower 70s southeast. A low stratus deck will
dominate our skies early in the day and erode from south to north
from midday onward. If this deck is a bit more persistent than
expected, max temps may be a few degrees cooler than advertised
north of U.S. 84.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...

The next cold front on tap for the area will swing through Thursday.
It will be ushered through by a 1042mb high pressure area
originating from northwest Canada sliding down the front range of
the Rockies. This will be some of the coldest air of the season
thus far for the southeast United States heading into the first
part of the weekend. Not expecting much in the way of precipitation
due to the Tuesday front scouring much of the moisture out as it
passed through. Highs Thursday will be in the upper 50s across SE
Alabama to mid-upper 60s across the eastern Big Bend counties.
Highs Friday will be markedly cooler with highs only in the upper
40s across SE Alabama to upper 50s across the eastern Big Bend
counties. Lows will be in the 40s Wednesday night and the 30s
Thursday night. There is an expected light freeze Thursday night
roughly along and north of a De Funiak Springs Florida to Ashburn
Georgia line. Wind chills will be in the low/mid 20s across AL/GA
and mid 20s to near 30 across northern Florida.


.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The aforementioned surface high pressure will slide across the Mid
South Friday night northeastward to the Delmarva Saturday night.
The coldest night of the period will be Friday night with most
locations away from the Gulf Coast experiencing a light freeze.
Winds become northeasterly Friday night then easterly late
Saturday. A fast moving mid level disturbance will support a cold
front passage Sunday night and Monday morning. Source region for
the airmass behind this front is a moderated Continental Polar
airmass which will not be as cold as the more Arctic airmass from
the short term. Moisture will feed into the system as it moves
across the eastern half of the United States but a bulk of this
will be to our north. Low end chance PoPs with not much
accumulation appears the likely scenario for this event. Mid/upper
flow behind this system is a fast zonal flow which means not much
in the way of temperature advection. Therefore, the warmup to
highs in the 60s to lower 70s on Sunday will roughly be the norm
Monday through Wednesday.


.MARINE...

Relatively low winds and seas will be the rule today
through Thursday. A cold front will swing through Thursday with
winds and seas increasing beginning Thursday evening. Expect
advisory level sustained winds with periods of gusts to near gale
force Thursday night through Friday night with seas approaching 10
feet in the far offshore waters. Expect more favorable marine
conditions beginning Saturday as high pressure builds across the
southeast United States.


.FIRE WEATHER...

After much needed widespread rains, fuels have moistened up
considerably. Therefore, even through much drier air will arrive for
Friday and Saturday, red flag criteria should not be met.


.HYDROLOGY...

No rainfall is in the forecast through Saturday night. Therefore,
the heavy rains from this last system will have time to drain
through the river basins. The flood warning for the Shoal River
near Mossy Head was cancelled yesterday as the river fell below
flood stage with predicted levels to continue to fall.

A few of our rivers are expected to reach action stage over the
next few days, including the Chipola River and the Ochlockonee
River. The Choctawhatchee River is expected to each minor flood
stage by Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   70  46  64  36  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   67  51  62  39  53 /   0   0  10   0   0
Dothan        63  43  60  31  50 /   0   0  10   0   0
Albany        65  44  62  32  51 /   0   0  10   0   0
Valdosta      69  46  65  35  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    72  46  68  39  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  69  51  66  40  54 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Wool
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Wool
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Wool
HYDROLOGY...Scholl



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