Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 291939
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
339 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Scattered convection continues this afternoon along the Panhandle
and Big Bend Sea breeze fronts. The WNW flow aloft is enhancing
convergence along these boundaries, particularly in Gulf and
Franklin Counties. Expect scattered storms to continue across the
Fla Panhandle into the early evening hours and dissipate after
sunset. Overnight, expect mostly clear skies with temperatures
dropping into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees by morning.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Northwest flow aloft Monday will become mostly zonal Tuesday and
weak low level ridging will move into place across the eastern
CONUS. The sea breeze front will be the primary forcing mechanism
with isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected across the area
both Monday and Tuesday. Very warm conditions will continue with
highs in the low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Two upper level disturbances-one in the upper Mississippi Valley and
one in the southwest will develop by mid-week, pushing eastward
through next weekend. Isolated to scattered sea breeze
thunderstorms are expected in the afternoons through Friday.
Beyond Friday, there is some model discrepancy with the evolution
of the upper level disturbances, but overall chances for
thunderstorms will be higher over the weekend, in the 30-40%
range. Highs will generally be in the low 90s with lows around 70.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Monday]...

SCT TSRA developing along the sea breeze this afternoon will
likely stay close to the coast with WNW flow aloft, suggesting
only ECP seeing a storm before sunset. Overnight, expect VFR
conditions to prevail and through the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will generally be from the west around 10 knots through
Wednesday, then lighter and more variable winds will prevail.
There will chances for scattered thunderstorms near the coast
through the period. Seas will be 2 feet or less. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A dry air mass will linger across the region with isolated
afternoon thunderstorms. RH will remain too high for any chance of
red flag conditions. Fog is not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

All of our area rivers remain below flood stage and with no
widespread heavy rainfall in the forecast. Therefore, no flooding is
anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   70  94  70  94  72 /  10  20  10  30  10
Panama City   73  86  75  86  74 /  10  20   0  20  10
Dothan        70  92  68  94  71 /  10  20  10  20   0
Albany        67  92  69  93  71 /  10  20  10  20  10
Valdosta      66  92  68  93  71 /   0  20  10  30  20
Cross City    69  91  69  92  70 /   0  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  73  88  72  88  73 /   0  20  10  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Moore
LONG TERM...Moore
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Moore
FIRE WEATHER...Lamers
HYDROLOGY...Moore



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