Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 290122
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
922 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
01 UTC surface analysis shows a decaying frontal zone just
northwest of the forecast area. Surface dewpoints from Albany down
through Dothan are still running in the lower 70s, and it appears
that little additional drier air, at least at the surface, will
find its way into the region overnight. However, further back
upstream across the Tennessee Valley, a second drier cold front is
on its way and will be bringing our first real taste of drier air
Aloft, vapor imagery shows the mid level trough across the Ohio
Valley continuing to drop southward. Out ahead of the main trough
axis, there`s still enough forcing to generate isolated convection
overnight across the Florida Big Bend and over the adjacent waters
in Apalachee Bay. Will maintain the 20-40 PoP across this portion
of the forecast area overnight.
With a drier airmass in place and generally clear skies across the
western half of the forecast area, expect temperatures to drop
into the mid to upper 60s overnight across Southeastern Alabama
and Southwestern Georgia. However, further east, temperatures will
remain warm, in the lower 70s overnight.
.AVIATION [Through 00Z Friday]...
Precipitation chances will quickly drop as the front makes its
way out of the CWA overnight. Low level moisture and scattered
clouds will begin to clear after sunrise as dry air begins to move
in from the NW. Expect skies to gradually clear from west to east
and winds to slowly veer from southwest to northwest throughout
.PREV DISCUSSION [323 PM EDT]...
.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
A large cutoff low will remain essentially stationary over the
Ohio Valley through Friday night. At the surface, high pressure
will nose into the Tri-State region pushing through a dry cold
front by Thursday night that will reinforce the dry airmass.
Afternoon highs on Thursday are expected to be near normal as the
core of the upper-level cool air remains west of us. Thursday
night, winds will likely remain elevated in the immediate wake of
the front keeping temperatures in the upper 50s across southeast
Alabama, up to the upper 60s across the southeast Big Bend. Friday
is expected to be quite pleasant with clear skies and highs in the
low to middle 80s. Friday night will be the coolest night as the
dry air is well established and winds will be lighter. Expect lows
in the upper 50s in most locations away from the coast and the
southeast Big Bend of Florida.
.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
The cooler, drier conditions associated with the frontal system are
expected to be short-lived. Model guidance shows that then upper
level support for this system will stall over the Ohio Valley during
the weekend and will retreat to the north-northeast in the early
parts of next week. As a result, the frontal system will stall
just to the east of our area during the weekend and will then
lift northward early next week. While the northwestern portion of
our area is expected to remain dry through the period, moisture
will return to the southern portion of the region early next week,
leading to PoPs of 30-40% in the FL Big Bend and south central GA
during the afternoon on Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures will
be in the upper 80s and low temperatures will be in the upper 60s
through the long term period.
West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots will prevail through Thursday
night, with a brief uptick to Cautionary levels possible on
Thursday night. Thereafter, northerly winds 5 to 10 knots will
prevail for a few days.
A cold front will move through the area tonight and Thursday with
a second front crossing the region Thursday night. These fronts
will bring much drier air to the region from Thursday evening into
the weekend. Other than high dispersion rates Thursday afternoon
across much of the area, there are no fire weather concerns as
minimum RH values will remain above critical values even in the
drier airmass behind the fronts.
Flooding of any type is not expected over the next several days.
Scattered storms will return to the forecast after the weekend.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 70 90 63 84 58 / 10 20 0 0 0
Panama City 73 86 66 80 64 / 10 10 0 0 0
Dothan 65 86 57 80 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
Albany 66 88 58 81 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 69 89 62 84 59 / 10 10 0 0 0
Cross City 72 88 68 85 63 / 40 50 10 10 10
Apalachicola 75 87 68 82 65 / 20 30 0 0 0