Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 260010
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
810 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.UPDATE...

No significant changes to the previous forecast below appear
necessary.

&&

.AVIATION...

[Through 00z Saturday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period with clear skies and light winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [253 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Surface high pressure will slide eastward becoming centered over the
Florida Peninsula by daybreak. With clear skies, light or calm wind
and a very dry airmass, temperatures will drop into the mid 50s over
most inland locations with upper 50s to lower 60s along the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Ridging pushing in from the west will bring mostly clear skies as
well as give daytime highs a slight bump. Temperatures will
generally top out in the upper 80s Friday and in the low 90s
Saturday which is a few degrees above average. Areas along the
coast however will stay a bit cooler toping out in the mid 80s.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Moisture will be on the increase ahead of an approaching frontal
system late Sunday. The front is expected to stall out on
approach and dissipate to the north of the forecast area midweek.
However, it`s influence and influx in moisture in combination
with a wandering surface high over south Florida will be enough
to bring back a 20 to 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms
starting Monday. The highest chances Monday are expected along our
Western Panhandle and SE Alabama forecast zones with the chances
for mostly afternoon storms increasing to the east throughout the
week. Daytime highs will remain within a few degrees of average
with overnight lows staying a few degrees or more above average.


.MARINE...

Small craft operators are encouraged to continue to exercise
caution until westerly diminish at or below 15 knots this
evening. Winds and seas should remain light to occasionally
moderate through the rest of the period.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Most of the area has picked up about 2-4" of rain over the last
week. As much of the area has been parched, particularly south-
central GA and the FL Big Bend, this rainfall has been welcome
relief. No river flooding is occuring or forecast to occur. The
highest rise is along the Kinchafoonee Creek near Dawson, which is
currently in action stage and will rise to around 6.5 ft this
morning before falling.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   55  88  64  91  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   65  81  73  83  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        56  88  64  90  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        55  87  64  91  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      55  87  63  92  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    58  85  66  88  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  65  83  72  85  74 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Friday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Humphreys
LONG TERM...Humphreys
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Lahr



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