Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 210653
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
253 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms that persisted across SE Alabama
and the FL Panhandle earlier tonight have dissipated, and dry
conditions are expected across our area through the early morning
hours. A semi-cutoff upper low will remain present across the Mid-
Atlantic region through this morning and afternoon, with an upper
trough axis stretching southwestward into our area. Deep layer
moisture will be present on the southeastern side of this feature,
and with instability increasing during the day scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop. Coverage will be greatest across the FL
Big Bend and far southern GA where moisture is highest and sea
breeze forcing could enhance showers/storms. Mid-level dry air will
lead to lower chances across our northwestern areas. High
temperatures will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s inland, with
mid 80s along the Gulf Coast.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Upper ridge will remain elongated from Texas to the Great Lakes
this period while upper troughing will remain wedged between the
upper ridge and the two tropical cyclones with an eventual upper
low closing off across the area Saturday. Surface high pressure
will remain anchored to the north with ridging draped from the
northeast states southwestward to the Mississippi valley. Area
time height cross sections and point soundings indicate drier mid
level air will work in from the north Friday which will reduce
rain chances Friday. As low level easterly flow strenghtens
Saturday as Hurricane Maria moves through the Bahamas, increased
moisture and the Atlantic seabreeze will lead to an increased
chance for rainfall Saturday (40-50%). High temperatures each day
will be in the mid to upper 80s with lows around 70.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

Upper low will slowly move westward and weaken through Monday then
shortwave ridging builds over the area Tuesday through Thursday.
Expect an gradual decrease in precipitation chances each day with
mostly dry conditions Tuesday through Thursday. High temperatures
will slowly increase each day as well perhaps reaching back into
the lower 90s by Wednesday-Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Friday]...

Patchy fog and low clouds have developed over VLD, with MVFR
visibility and periods of LIFR cigs during the past hour. Expect
IFR/LIFR conditions to prevail through around 12-13Z at this
terminal, then fog/low clouds should dissipate shortly after
sunrise. Patchy fog is also possible at DHN, with MVFR visibility
possible. VFR conditions are expected through the morning
otherwise. Scattered storms are possible in the afternoon, with
best chances of visibility reductions at TLH and VLD.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds and seas will increase to moderate levels this weekend as
Hurricane Maria moves up the Gulf Stream and interacts with high
pressure across the southeast United States and the northern Gulf
of Mexico. Low end exercise caution in the far offshore waters in
the overnight hours Friday night through Sunday night is possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Locally low dispersion values are expected across the FL Big Bend
region, with some values below critically low thresholds. However,
high RH values and light winds will prevent any fire weather
concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall of a half an inch or less over the next several days will
not cause any flooding concerns. Area river levels are falling,
and that trend will continue.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   88  70  89  71  87 /  60  20  20  10  40
Panama City   86  73  87  72  86 /  50  20  20  10  40
Dothan        90  69  88  68  87 /  30  20  30  10  30
Albany        91  70  89  69  87 /  40  20  20  20  30
Valdosta      89  68  87  68  86 /  50  20  20  10  40
Cross City    89  68  88  70  87 /  40  20  30  20  50
Apalachicola  87  73  86  72  85 /  40  20  20  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Lahr
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan



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