Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 101122
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
622 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday]...

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. WNW to NW
winds will increase this morning with speeds of 10-15kts and gusts
to 22kts.

&&

.Prev Discussion [347 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
High pressure will build in at the surface today with WNW winds
aloft. The area will remain dry through the near term.

Freezing temperatures are in place across much of the area this
morning with a Freeze Warning in effect. Highs will remain on the
cooler side today will the upper 40s to lower 50s across Georgia and
Alabama to the low to mid 50s across Florida. For Tallahassee, this
will be more than 10 degrees below normal.

Winds will be elevated today but not to the extent of wind advisory
criteria. Initially this morning, this could lead to an hour or two
of 20 degree wind chills across parts of Alabama and the northern
portion of SW Georgia, however the area is too localized for a Wind
Chill Advisory.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
Another night of clear and chilly conditions are expected across
the region tonight. The big question though is how low
temperatures will go. Forecast dewpoints for Wednesday afternoon
show us dropping into the low teens, and with surface high
pressure nearly overhead by sunset, expect temperatures to plummet
quickly after sunset with the calm winds. Ordinarily, this pattern
would suggest a hard freeze, given the chilly and dry airmass and
calm winds. However, model guidance isn`t going especially cold,
likely due in part to some weak moisture return as the surface
high slides east of the region by sunrise. While it`s possible
that some areas could see low temperatures on Thursday morning
around 25 degrees, confidence in duration or location is not high
enough to justify a hard freeze watch at this time, thus a only a
freeze watch was issued.

The short term warming trend will kick off on Thursday and
continue into Friday as southerly flow becomes more established
ahead of the next dry cold front that will approach the region
late on Friday. High temperatures on Thursday will return to the
mid 60s and even into the lower 70s by Friday.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
After a dry cold front passes through the region late Friday,
drier and somewhat cooler air will return for the weekend as an
area of high pressure becomes established across the Eastern
Carolina coast. Model guidance is in good agreement that dry
conditions through the weekend will give way to increasing rain
chances by Monday afternoon as the next storm system approaches
the region. Both the GFS and Euro show this system being fairly
progressive, so rain chances should be maximized to a 12-24 hour
period from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon, if not even
a little shorter. This system should have only a little cooler
weather behind it, so temperatures will be on the increase on
Wednesday as surface high pressure builds across the Gulf of
Mexico.


.Marine...
Winds will gradually diminish this afternoon as high pressure
moves nearer to the marine area. The small craft advisory
continues through late this afternoon. High pressure will remain
over or near the marine area through Friday before a dry cold
front moves through the waters, resulting in an increase in
offshore winds to near cautionary levels.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag warning criteria across Florida is very borderline for
today. While it will be dry today and RH clearly meets criteria,
winds fall around 1-2 mph short of criteria. A few places are
meeting the ERC criteria, but with the winds falling just short,
will not issue a red flag warning for Florida for today. If winds
trend stronger than expected though, red flag criteria would be
met in some areas.

Fuels are dry across Georgia and Alabama and thus despite the dry
conditions and marginal winds, red flag warning criteria will not
be met.

RH values will increase after today for the rest of the week and
thus no fire weather concerns for Thursday and Friday.


.Hydrology...
Over on the Choctawhatchee, both Caryville and Bruce have crested,
with Caryville likely to drop below flood stage later today. Bruce
will take a little longer to drop, remaining above moderate flood
stage through Friday night.

The Chattahoochee is largely returning to normal flows and with
inflows from the Flint continuing to decrease with the crest there
now below Bainbridge, releases out of Woodruff down the
Apalachicola River continue to decrease, dropping below 55 kcfs
later today. With further reductions expected in releases, the
river at Blountstown will continue to drop through the remainder
of this week. Note that flooding in the lower portion of the
Apalachicola Basin from Wewahitchka through Howard Creek will
continue at minor levels through the weekend.

Over on the Withlacoochee River, crests have occurred through the
US-84 crossing. Pinetta continues to rise and should crest a
couple feet below flood stage this weekend. Increased flows down
the Withlacoochee and Upper Suwannee will result in steady rises
continuing throughout the Middle Suwannee Basin through the
weekend, though this will stay well below action levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   53  27  65  48  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   53  36  64  55  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        50  28  65  45  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        49  26  62  43  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      52  27  63  46  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    55  27  62  46  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  54  35  63  55  67 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning FOR
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-North Walton-Washington.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning FOR
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-North Walton-Washington.

GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning FOR
     Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-
     Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Watch from this evening through Thursday morning FOR
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon FOR Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR Coastal
     Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20
     Nm-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FIEUX
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FIEUX
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FIEUX
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY


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