Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 251838
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
238 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Surface high pressure will build down the eastern seaboard
overnight, with an increase in northeasterly flow expected across
the area. An area of low clouds may accompany the surge, but
otherwise, quiet weather is expected with lows in the mid to upper
.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
An upper level trough will move across the Great Lakes region
Wednesday into Thursday with the southern extent moving across
the southeast on Thursday. The better dynamics will remain well
north of the CWA. In addition, an associated surface low tracks
across the Ohio Valley but the cold front washes out before
reaching the CWA. There is not much with the system to cause
impacts across the CWA except for some increase in clouds on
Wednesday and Thursday. In terms of PoPs, have kept mention to 10
percent or less over land.
Highs will be in the mid 80s inland and the lower 80s along the
coast. Lows are forecast in the lower 60s inland to mid 60s along
.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...
High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will slide east and
southward and be centered along the Carolina coast on Saturday.
Meanwhile upper ridging will build into the CWA. The upper level and
surface ridges will continue to dominate through the long term and
the CWA should remain dry. Highs are expected to be in the mid 80s
inland with the lower 80s along the coast, similar to the short term
temperatures. Lows are expected in the mid to upper 50s with lower
60s along the coast.
.AVIATION [Through 18Z Wednesday]...
Low-level moisture will increase overnight from the east as high
pressure builds down the eastern seaboard. This may push some MVFR
cigs across KTLH and KVLD around sunrise. Otherwise, VFR
conditions and light winds will prevail.
Winds and seas will increase with winds near exercise caution
levels late tonight into tomorrow morning as high pressure builds
down the eastern U.S. coast. They will strengthen some Wednesday
night with exercise caution levels likely. After this, there will
be a slight weakening with winds generally near to below 15 knots.
A dry airmass remains in place across the region this afternoon with
RHs currently ranging from 25 to 30% across the region at this hour.
Expect RHs to climb above 30% by late afternoon as moisture
continues to gradually filter into the region. Therefore, hazardous
fire weather conditions are not expected through this evening.
Wednesday, conditions will improve further as RHs will remain in the
40s north to low 50s across coastal locales as easterly flow
increases moisture across the region. Dispersions are expected to be
marginally high (70 to 80) Wednesday afternoon, mainly across the
eastern two-thirds of the tri-state region.
The area is expected to remain dry over the next few days.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 59 84 62 84 59 / 0 0 0 10 0
Panama City 62 80 66 80 64 / 0 0 10 10 0
Dothan 56 83 60 84 58 / 0 0 0 10 0
Albany 56 83 61 84 58 / 0 0 0 10 0
Valdosta 58 83 61 84 58 / 0 10 0 0 0
Cross City 58 84 61 83 59 / 0 0 10 0 0
Apalachicola 64 79 67 79 65 / 0 0 10 10 0