Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 281428

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1028 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Deep easterly flow remains in place this morning with high
pressure parked north of the forecast area. While forcing will be
rather weak, expect another round of showers and isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon as the east coast seabreeze races
into the Panhandle. Have adjusted PoPs slightly with this in mind.
Otherwise, low-level moisture is more plentiful this morning, per
12Z RAOBS and surface obs, so expect this afternoon to be more
humid than the past few days.



.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

Although the models are in much better agreement this past run,
there still remains much uncertainty with the evolution of the
tropical disturbance which will be crossing the Florida Keys and
entering the southeast Gulf of Mexico tonight. The latest GFS and
ECMWF tracks the low slowly west northwestward through Tuesday. The
ECMWF solution shows a 1003 mb low roughly 370 miles south of
Pensacola and the GFS a 1007 mb low 300 miles south of Pensacola
at 00z Wed. Still far enough away to have minimal impact on our
local weather through the short term. Monday will see another day
with low PoPs (~20%) for late August as the deep easterly flow
continues. On Tuesday, the models show deep layer moisture surging
northward up the Florida Peninsula on the east side of the
tropical disturbance. The deepest moisture may only reach the
southeast Big Bend by late Tuesday so PoPs will be tapered 20%
northwest to 50-60% for the far southeast. Temps will still be at
or above seasonal levels with highs in the lower to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The upper ridge centered over the mid-Atlantic states and
responsible for the easterly flow across our region the past several
days is forecast to break down as a trough digs down the eastern
seaboard. As the trough deepens, both the GFS and ECMWF show the
tropical system in the gulf lifting to the north then northeast
entering Apalachee Bay late Thursday and making landfall across the
southeast Big Bend Thursday night. The EURO solution shows a
stronger system than the GFS. While the models are in much better
agreement, this solution may change multiple times so we are
advising all interests in the local region, especially coastal
residents to monitor the development of this system closely. For
now we are showing some increase in showers and thunderstorms
by the middle to late week, mainly for the Florida zones, but
this could change significantly as we move through the upcoming

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Monday]...

Previously expected MVFR ceilings do not appear to be
materializing this morning. If anything, a brief period of MVFR
restriction would be possible at TLH or ECP over the next few
hours. Otherwise, VFR will prevail today with the best chance for
storms at ECP, TLH, and VLD.


With a surface ridge to our north, winds will continue from the
east at moderate levels during the overnight and early morning
hours, but become lighter (especially at the coast) during the
afternoon and early evening hours. By early next week the
conditions will depend greatly on the development and track of a
tropical disturbance currently approaching south Florida.


Aside from elevated dispersion indices across south Georgia and
southeast Alabama today, hazardous fire weather conditions are not
expected over the next several days.


There are no flooding concerns for at least the next few days.
Much of next weeks`s forecast will depend on the evolution of
Invest 99L with heavy rain possible should it move in this



Tallahassee   94  75  94  75  94 /  40  10  20  10  30
Panama City   89  77  91  77  91 /  40  20  20  20  30
Dothan        92  73  94  73  94 /  20  10  20  10  20
Albany        94  74  95  73  94 /  20  10  20  10  20
Valdosta      92  73  93  73  93 /  20  10  20  10  30
Cross City    93  74  92  74  91 /  40  10  30  20  50
Apalachicola  89  78  90  77  90 /  20  30  20  20  40




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