Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 272024
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
424 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH VALDOSTA AND
NOW STRETCHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DRIVE
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S IN THEN NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND ALONG THE COAST.


.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY
10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, THE WARMING TREND WILL BE FAIRLY
SLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 60 IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF THE CWA WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA, SOUTHERN ALABAMA, AND FLORIDA WITH
DECENT SUNSHINE AROUND. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. CURRENT THINKING
PLACES THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND GEORGIA BORDER WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEAST GOM. THIS WOULD MAKE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE COLDEST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORDS TO
FALL, MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF TALLAHASSEE WILL SEE NEAR-RECORD LOWS
AROUND OR JUST BELOW 40 DEGREES. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN
THE AMOUNT OF ANY HIGH CLOUDS, IF ANY, THAT COULD PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS ALSO SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AS THE EURO IS SLOWER MOVING THIS RIDGE SOUTHEAST AND
WOULD NOT ALLOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY AS
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BEGINS TO ESTABLISH.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK A WEAK SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE WASHINGTON STATE AREA) WILL PROGRESS EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON MONDAY THIS WILL HELP GENERATE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA AND STALL GIVING
OUR AREA COOL CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY A CUT- OFF LOW WILL
EJECT EASTWARDS AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND WILL HELP GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUDNERSTORM
LATER IN THE WEEK AS SOME CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING IN THE
WESTERN GULF.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY] MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ALL AREA WATERS. WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL 30 KNOT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRIER AIR IS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS...FUELS WILL BE TOO MOIST TO ALLOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA TO BE MET. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   40  63  42  67  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY   47  62  46  65  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN        39  60  39  65  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALBANY        38  58  38  63  48 /   0   0   0   0  10
VALDOSTA      41  62  40  67  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY    42  65  41  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
APALACHICOLA  45  64  47  64  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     GULF.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR APALACHEE BAY
     OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL
     OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO
     APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
LONG TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/WESTON


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