Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 230041

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
741 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Tuesday]...

Unlimited cigs and vsbys to prevail through around midnight with
gusty winds from the west-southwest. Around 08-12Z MVFR cigs are
expected to roll in from west to east across the area, but should
improve late in the afternoon and return to VFR. Gusty winds will
last through the period.



.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The severe storm threat has ended for our forecast area, but it
left a trail of destruction in the form of multiple tornadoes and
damaging straight-line winds. This will go down in history as one
of our worst severe weather outbreaks, and may rival the infamous
Feb 13-14th 2000 outbreak. We will be sending survey crews out
tomorrow morning, with emphasis on the two stronger tornadoes in
south GA which caused multiple injuries and fatalities.

Much drier air has developed across our forecast area in the wake
of a deep-layer cold front. However, there may still be enough
low-layer moisture and large-scale lift for a few more showers
across the coastal areas of the FL Panhandle and Big Bend. Later
tonight, moisture will wrap southeastward into our forecast area
along the western periphery of a strong upper-level low as it
translates eastward. There will still be enough ascent to force
significant cloud cover and even some rain, especially over south
GA and AL. However, we do not expect thunderstorms.

We had some reports of minor coastal flooding this afternoon at
the FL Panhandle beaches, but recently the local tide gages along
Apalachee Bay indicated only a minor surge. We plan to let the
coastal flood warning expire later this evening.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
Sfc and upper low will become vertically stacked on Monday with
deep northwesterly flow across the area. Expect a grey and breezy
day with a few showers possible along the northern tier.
Temperatures will be closer to seasonal normals the next couple of
days, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
A ridge will build over the southeastern states for the middle of
the week with warming temperatures and dry weather. Another upper
trough will approach by late in the work week, bringing another
chance of rain. Severe chances appear rather low with system at
the moment.

Severe storms and gale conditions will continue into the evening.
The severe storm threat will end from west to east. However, the
gale conditions will continue through Monday morning. Conditions
will improve through the middle of the week.

Windy conditions are expected through Monday. However, fuel
moisture levels will be very high.

Area rivers and streams will be on the rise following the last
several days of rain. Minor to moderate flooding is expected on
the Choctawhatchee Basin. Minor flooding is forecast elsewhere.



Tallahassee   53  65  43  68  48 /  30  10   0   0   0
Panama City   57  65  49  64  57 /  30  10   0   0   0
Dothan        51  62  42  65  48 /  30  10   0   0   0
Albany        51  63  42  66  46 /  30  20   0   0   0
Valdosta      52  64  43  67  46 /  20  10   0   0   0
Cross City    56  66  45  68  47 /  40  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  58  66  48  66  56 /  40  10   0   0   0



FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 11 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Tuesday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GM...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal
     Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin
     FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL
     from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from
     20 to 60 NM.



NEAR TERM...Fournier
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