Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 060956 CCA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TALLAHASSEE FL 554 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
[Through 12Z Wednesday] Low-end MVFR to IFR cigs, and even some
patchy -DZ/BR (with MVFR Vis) will gradually improve mid to late
morning. Cigs will improve to VFR levels from west to east from late
morning through mid afternoon, followed by clearing skies by evening.
.Prev Discussion [322 AM EDT]...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 10 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a weak cold front
across north-central FL, with higher pressure to the northwest.
Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a ridge beginning to take
shape over the Southeast, as the anomalous deep layer low pressure
system that affected our weather the past several days finally lifts
northeastward over the western Atlantic. The 8 pm EDT KTAE sounding
showed a pronounced warm nose above the moist boundary layer, as
warming, drying air descended on the flank of the departing upper
level low. However, the saturated portion of the boundary layer was
more shallow than 24 hours ago, and the GFS forecasts drying later
today along the low-level isentropic surfaces. Thus we expect
morning clouds to slowly give way to breaks in the overcast in the
afternoon, with high temperatures reaching the upper 70s.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
A trough is positioned off to the east over the Atlantic with what
is left of the closed upper low that was positioned over the
Southeast for a few days. With this off to the east, will start to
see a decrease in the cloud coverage as the better deep layer
moisture shifted eastward. As weak ridging builds in for Wednesday,
the GFS continues with the decrease in clouds for a mostly sunny
day. The NAM Bufr soundings are a little more pessimistic with
clouds Wednesday afternoon, but have leaned towards the drier, lower
sky coverage GFS solution. The situation is similar for Thursday in
terms of the clouds.
NAM indicates the potential for precip Wednesday night across the
Southeast part of the CWA while the ECMWF tries to hint at activity
over the marine area Thursday afternoon. With weak ridging though
and lack of deep layer moisture, have continued with no mention
of precip in the short term.
.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Ridging will weaken across the CWA as a cold front pushes through
over the weekend. Although the moisture is not impressive with the
front, both the GFS and ECMWF indicate the potential for some
precipitation with the front so have shown 20% PoPs at this point,
a little higher than the model blend. Both models are in good
agreement with developing a weak upper low on the tail end of the
front over the eastern Gulf of Mexico late in the weekend. With
this upper level low slowly moving towards the northeast, the
potential for precip across the southeastern part of the CWA will
linger through the remainder of the long term.
This morning, northeast winds will continue with speeds
around 15kts so have continued the Small Craft Exercise caution
statement through the morning. After this, speeds will decrease and
are forecast to remain below 15kts through the end of the week. The
winds also become easterly by Thursday.
Red Flag Warning conditions are not expected for the next several
The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce has crested and the river level
will continue to decrease over the next few days. The river should
fall below action stage on Friday.
Elsewhere rivers remain well below action stages and with little or
no rainfall expected over the next few days, there are no flooding
concerns across the region.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 79 62 85 62 86 / 0 10 0 0 10
Panama City 78 64 83 65 83 / 0 10 0 0 10
Dothan 79 61 84 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 78 59 83 58 84 / 10 10 0 0 0
Valdosta 78 62 84 61 86 / 10 10 10 0 10
Cross City 81 64 85 64 86 / 10 10 10 10 10
Apalachicola 77 66 82 65 83 / 0 10 0 0 10