Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 291443
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
943 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 7 am EST regional surface analysis wasn`t much different than
24 hours ago, except that the pressure gradient and cold front to
our west are weaker. There was a 1023 mb high near Albany, GA,
with a dry airmass across much of the Southeast. A weakening,
quasi-stationary cold front extended across central TN to the TX
coastal waters. We expect a continuation of our recent fair, warm
weather today, as highs climb to around 80 F (about 10 F above
[Through 12Z Monday] Unlimited cigs and unrestricted Vis will
continue through this evening. The 06z NWP guidance was in fair agreement
with regards to fog development for Monday morning, indicating
the highest probability of fog from KECP and KDHN westward by dawn.
However, KDHN was on the edge of the higher fog probabilities, so
we will wait for the 12z model suite to see if we should forecast
fog in the KDHN TAF on the upcoming 18z TAF package.
.Prev Discussion [630 AM EST]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
Weak ridging will be in place over the Gulf of Mexico tonight
while the flow across the CWA is nearly zonal. The better moisture
remains just north of the CWA and thus little in terms of
precipitation for the short term. By Tuesday the upper level flow
becomes more SW as a shortwave lifts across the north central U.S.
and pushes a front into the Southeast. Models are in decent
agreement with showing the potential for some showers Tuesday
afternoon and thus have included slight chance Pops for the end of
the short term.
Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the upper 70s and lower 80s
through the short term, continuing to result in highs above
normal for this time of year.
.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
While discrepancies continue for the long term between the GFS
and ECMWF, the GFS is now coming more into line with the ECMWF for
Wednesday with the front pushing into the SE. The GFS still
weakens the front and dissipates the precipitation associated with
the front, but now brings some showers into the CWA ahead of the
front. While it is still a slightly different set-up, this helps
to better justify the chance PoPs in the forecast for Wednesday.
A short wave dives into the southern plains late in the weak and
helps to continue to push moisture across the CWA. This would help
to result in our best rain chances for the whole CWA late in the
week. While the upper shortwave is still west of the CWA, the
ECMWF remains quicker with pushing the precipitation east of the
CWA. The GFS is much slower than last night`s 00Z run with
clearing precipitation as it develops a closed upper low across
the SE that is slow moving. Have lingered slight chance PoPs into
the weekend for the eastern portion of the CWA but have kept the
best chances confined to Thu-Fri.
Weak easterly winds will be in place for today. The flow will
become more southerly Tuesday night and northerly Wednesday with a
front pushing into the Southeast. Overall winds will be light
which will result in variable winds at times. Winds are forecast
to increase to cautionary levels mid to late next week.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
With no significant rain anticipated through early this week,
there are no flood concerns at this time.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 80 55 80 58 80 / 0 0 0 10 10
Panama City 73 57 76 59 76 / 0 10 10 10 20
Dothan 79 55 78 57 77 / 0 10 10 10 20
Albany 79 54 78 57 78 / 0 0 10 10 10
Valdosta 80 54 80 57 80 / 0 0 0 10 10
Cross City 79 56 80 58 80 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 73 58 76 60 76 / 0 0 0 10 10