Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 201720
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
120 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Friday]...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the area this afternoon.
Confidence remains too low to indicate less than VFR conditions at
any particular location at this time. Outside of these localized
storms, VFR conditions will dominate through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1115 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

An upper level trough over the southeast US is promoting northerly
flow throughout the CWA today. This will tend to keep higher PoPs
near the shore with increased sea breeze convergence. A subsidence
inversion around 650 mb from an Atlantic surface anticyclone and dry
air in the mid levels could work to inhibit convection today.
However, decreased cloud coverage as seen on visible satellite
imagery will lead to higher surface temperatures this afternoon
which will help initiate convection. PoPs were left unchanged and
will generally be 20-30% today with the higher values closer to
the Florida coastline and peninsula. High temperatures will be in
the mid 90s which could lead to heat indices over 105, although a
heat advisory is not expected at this time.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Closed upper low along the Georgia coast will retrograde westward
over the CWA on Friday and off to the western Gulf of Mexico by
Saturday. As the low shifts eastward, it will become an open wave
at 500mb. The main impact of this upper low will be to enhance
convection in the short term, mainly on Friday. Forecast is for
30-50% PoPs on Friday and 30% on Saturday. Highs are forecast to
be in the low to mid 90s with lows in the mid 70s.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The upper level feature mentioned in the short term will be well
west of the area for the beginning of the short term and the
Bermuda high will build into the CWA for the weekend. The ridging
will weaken as a trough sweeps across the eastern CONUS during the
first half of the week, resulting in increased PoPs across the
CWA. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with lows in the
mid 70s.


.MARINE...

Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be light, generally 10 knots
or less, over the next few days. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected each day.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Low dispersion indices are possible for parts of south Georgia
today. There are no other fire weather concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, however this
additional rainfall is not expected to cause any widespread
flooding. Localized ponding in urban areas cannot be ruled out
with the heavier rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  92  74  90  75 /  20  40  10  30  20
Panama City   78  88  77  87  77 /  20  30  10  20  30
Dothan        75  93  74  90  74 /  10  50  20  30  20
Albany        74  94  73  91  74 /  10  40  20  20  10
Valdosta      73  93  73  91  74 /  20  40  10  30  20
Cross City    73  91  73  90  75 /  30  30  10  30  30
Apalachicola  76  88  76  87  77 /  20  20  10  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey/Patton
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Godsey/Patton
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Weston
HYDROLOGY...Fieux


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