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FXXX12 KWNP 091231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Dec 09 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2615 (S06W82,
Hsx/alpha) decayed further as it rotated nearer to the limb and produced
only a few weak x-ray enhancements. A partial halo CME was observed in
SOHO LASCO imagery beginning around 08/1200 UTC. However analysis
indicated the CME is not geoeffective. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels all three
days, with decreasing slight chances for C-class flares on days one and
two (09-10 Dec) due to the continued decay and inactivity trend of
Region 2615. The region rotates well beyond the west limb by day three
(11 Dec).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to high
levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high
levels on day one (09 Dec) due to CH HSS effects. Levels are expected to
increase to moderate to high levels on day two (10 Dec) and remain at
high levels on day three (11 Dec). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated ongoing CH HSS influences. Total IMF
strength underwent frequent variations and reached a peak value of near
12 nT at 08/1511 UTC. Total field strength decreased by 08/1530 UTC and
ranged primarily between 5 to 9 nT afterwards. The Bz component was
variable with frequent, short periods of southward direction. Solar wind
speed began the period in a slow decrease from 575 to 500 km/s, before
it increased after 08/1500 UTC and reached speeds from 600-725 km/s. The
phi angle was predominantly in a negative sector.

Total IMF strength and solar wind speed are expected to remain elevated
the remainder of day one (09 Dec) under the continuing, early influences
of the CH HSS. Total field strength is anticipated to weaken on day two
(10 Dec). Solar wind speeds are likely to remain over 500 km/s as
CH HSS influences continue. Elevated solar wind speeds are expected to
continue into day three (11 Dec), but are anticipated to begin weakening
as CH HSS effects start waning.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active as varying planetary
geomagnetic responses continued in response to CH HSS influences.

Mostly unsettled to active conditions are expected, with an isolated
period of G1-Minor storming remaining likely on day one (09 Dec) due to
CH HSS effects. Day two (10 Dec) is expected to continue experiencing
unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for an isolated G1-Minor
storming period. By day three (11 Dec), conditions are expected to
decrease to quiet and unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, as
the CH HSS effects begin to weaken. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.