Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 261231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 May 26 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. The largest solar event of the period was a
B9/Sf flare at 25/2117 UTC from Region 2548 (N13W29, Dao/beta). Region
2548 showed consolidation in its leader and development in its
intermediate spots. Region 2546 (S07W82, Hhx/alpha) was stable and
absent of significant flare activity. There were no Earth-directed CMEs
observed in available satellite imagery during the reporting period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flares for all three days of the forecast period (26-28 May).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on days one through three (26-28 May) due to electron
redistribution from CIR and CH HSS effects.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of background conditions. Solar
wind speed began the period near 400 km/s and ended near 330 km/s. Total
field (Bt) ranged between 3 and 5 nT while the Bz component was
primarily northward with a minor southward deflection of -3 nT early in
the period. Phi angle remained in a positive (away from Sun)
orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to become disturbed on day one (26
May) due to an expected solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) into a
negative sector followed by a weak CIR ahead of an isolated negative
polarity CH HSS. Day two (27 May) is expected to see increasing solar
wind speeds due to connection with the CH HSS. Solar wind parameters are
expected to become less enhanced due to the more rarefied space of the
CH HSS on day three (28 May), but solar wind speed is likely to remain
elevated as connection to the CH HSS continues.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to elicit mostly quiet to unsettled
responses, with an isolated active period later on day one (26 May) due
to a disturbed solar wind environment. Geomagnetic response is
expected to be primarily quiet to unsettled, with a few active periods
on day two (27 May) in reaction to increasing solar wind speeds and
still enhanced IMF. Day three (28 May) is expected to experience
decreasing levels of response at quiet to unsettled levels, due to
diminishing reaction in the more rarefied space of the CH HSS.



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