Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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640
FXXX12 KWNP 310031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Mar 31 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at very low levels with a few B-class flares
observed from Regions 2644 (N12W23, Eso/beta) and 2645 (S10E16,
Dki/beta). Region 2644 indicated slight areal decay, but was otherwise
unchanged. Region 2645 continued to exhibited leader spot growth coupled
with intermediate spot consolidation. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available satellite imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class
flares. Due to growth in Region 2645, a slight chance for M-class flare
activity (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) exists during the forecast period (31
Mar-02 Apr).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to high levels
with a peak flux of 24,432 pfu observed at 30/1720 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels,
with a chance of exceeding very high levels, all three days (31 Mar-02
Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at
background levels all three days.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained enhanced as CH HSS influence persisted.
Total field strength was steady between 4 to 6 nT while the Bz component
generally varied between +/-5 nT. Solar wind speed ranged from about 590
to 660 km/s with a peak speed of 685 km/s reached at 30/0923 UTC. Phi
angle orientation remained in a predominantly negative sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated as CH HSS influence
continues through the forecast period (31 Mar-02 Apr). Recurrence and
model data suggests solar wind speeds could enhance further as CH HSS
influence persists.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
G1 (Minor) storm levels were observed during the 30/0300-0600 UTC and
30/2100-2400 UTC synoptic intervals as CH HSS influences continued.

.Forecast...
G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected early on day one (31 Mar) due to
ongoing CH HSS effects. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at
predominately unsettled to active levels the next two days (01-02 Apr)
of the forecast period due to lingering CH HSS effects. A chance for
isolated G1 storm levels also exists during that time period.



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