Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 310031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Jul 31 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at very low levels.  The only flare of the
period was a B5/Sf at 30/0934 UTC from a spotless plage area near
S16E10.  Slight decay was observed in Region 2570 (N11E40, Bxo/beta).
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels over the next
three days (31 Jul-02 Aug).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a
maximum flux of 1,133 pfu observed at 30/1605 UTC.  The greater than 10
MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to
high levels on days one and two (31 Aug-01 Jul).  Normal to moderate
levels are expected on day three (02 Jul) due to the arrival of the 28
Jul CME followed by the onset of a CH HSS.  The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the
forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to recover over the period from a
negative polarity CH HSS.  Solar wind speed decreased from approximately
525 km/s to near 420 km/s.  Total field ranged from 1-4 nT while the Bz
component was between +/-2 nT.  Phi angle was oriented in a mostly
negative (towards) sector with brief variation into a positive (away)
sector throughout the day.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced by late on day two
to early on day three (01-02 Aug) due to the arrival of a CME from 28
Jul associated with a filament eruption near center disk.  Due to the
slow speed of the event, it is unlikely to have a significant shock.  A
CIR preceding a positive polarity, polar connected, CH HSS is expected
around mid day on day three further enhancing the solar wind parameters.
Solar wind speeds in the 650 km/s to 750 km/s range are likely with the
CH HSS based on STEREO A measurements.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet through day one and
the majority of day two (31 Jul-01 Aug) under a nominal solar wind
regime.  By late on day two to early on day three (02 Aug), the arrival
of the 28 Aug CME is expected followed by the onset of a CH HSS, which
is expected to cause unsettled to G1-Minor geomagnetic storm levels with
G2-Moderate levels likely.


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