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FXXX12 KWNP 090031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Oct 09 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low.  Only low level B-class flaring was
observed from Region 2427 (N18, L=038) off the NW limb.  Region 2429
(S19E32, Bxo/beta) was in decay and new Region 2430 (S17E60, Hrx/alpha)
was numbered during the period.  No Earth-directed coronal mass
ejections were observed during the period.

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for
C-class flares for the forecast period (09-11 Oct).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels during
the period, reaching a peak flux of 21,590 pfu at 08/1605 UTC.  The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected be at moderate to high
levels, with a chance for very high levels, for the forecast period
(09-11 Oct) following the redistribution of particles following the
passage of the coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background (Below S1-Minor)

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under a trans-equatorial
positive polarity CH HSS.  Solar wind speed averaged around 750 km/s
with a peak of 844 km/s at 08/0825 UTC.  Total field decreased from 7 nT
to near 4 nT.  The Bz component was variable until 08/0949 UTC when it
became mostly negative near -4 nT until 08/1730 UTC.  Phi angle was
oriented in a mostly positive (away) sector.

Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at elevated levels
through the forecast period as CH HSS effects persist.  Solar wind
speeds are expected to slowly decline on days two and three (10-11 Sep)
as effects diminish.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels during
the period due to CH HSS activity.  G2 levels occurred during the
08/0300-0900 UTC time-frame.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels on day one (09 Oct) with quiet to active levels
on days two and three (10-11 Oct) due to waning CH HSS effects. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.