Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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043
FXXX12 KWNP 100031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Feb 10 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels due to a C1, dual ribbon flare at
09/0601 UTC. The flare was related to an approximately 9 degree long,
filament disappearance (DSF) centered near N06W34. The DSF was
associated with a CME, first seen in LASCO/C2 imagery at 09/0700 UTC.
Analysis of all available SDO/AIA imagery suggested a possible
Earth-directed component. An analytical fit and Enlil model run were
accomplished. Initial results suggested a near-miss or possibly a weak,
flanking influence late on 12 Feb to early on 13 Feb. A few other CMEs
were noted during the period - none of which are expected to have any
Earth-directed components.

Region 2494 (S12W57, Dao/beta) decayed further as it lost areal coverage
and its magnetic field weakened to a simple bipolar configuration. The
region was inactive most of the period, but did produce a B9 flare at
09/1939 UTC. Region 2492 (N14W35, Dao/beta) gained penumbra fields
around both trailer and leader spots. The region maintained a simple
bipolar and weak magnetic gradient, yet it produced a few B-class
flares. Region 2497 (N13E22, Dai/beta-gamma) gained some opposite
polarities amongst the intermediate spots, creating an area of small,
minor magnetic shear. While the magnetic field strengthened, the region
maintained an overall weak magnetic gradient. The region had some x-ray
enhancements as observed in GOES/SXI imagery, but no flares were noted.
New NOAA SWPC Region number 2498 (N19E58, Bxo/beta) was assigned.

An eruptive prominence (EPL) was observed from the east limb (N08E90)
between 09/1811-1920 UTC by a USAF ground-based observatory. The EPL was
also observed in SDO/AIA imagery and much of the plasma appeared to
escape the Sun. However, the vector suggests it to be well off the
Sun-Earth line.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels all three days
(10-12 Feb) with occasional C-class flares likely on days one and two
(10-11 Feb) due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 2497 and
2494. Day three (12 Feb) is expected have solar activity continue at
very low levels, with a chance for C-class flares as Region 2494 begins
to rotate beyond the west limb, leaving Region 2497 as the primary
contributing source.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels,
while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels all three days (10-12 Feb), with a decrease to mainly
normal levels the later half of day three (12 Feb) due to electron
redistribution from CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to remain at background levels.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) environment was
indicative of weak CME effects. Solar wind speed began the period around
400 km/s before increasing to speeds primarily between 425-450 km/s
after 09/0400 UTC. Solar wind speed decreased to at or below 400 km/s
after about 09/1745 UTC. Total IMF strength ranged predominantly between
6 to 12 nT until about 09/0800 UTC, when field strength began an
increase and peaked at 14 nT by 09/0900 UTC. Total field strength began
a gradual decline shortly afterwards and reached values between 6 to 7
nT towards the end of the period. The Bz orientation was variable, but
had a prolonged southward deviation between approximately 09/0900-1200
UTC. The phi angle was predominantly negative (towards the Sun).

.Forecast...
CME effects are waning, therefore, solar wind parameters are expected to
continue a trend towards background conditions on day one (10 Feb), with
near background conditions likely on day two (11 Feb). A solar sector
boundary change (SSBC) is expected sometime on day one or two. Late on
day two the IMF is likely to see a minor enhancement due to effects from
an approaching CIR. Day three (12 Feb) is expected to see an increase in
solar winds and a disturbed IMF due to CIR impacts and effects from the
expected positive polarity CH HSS.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet until the 09/0900-1200 UTC synoptic
period when it became active due to reactions to the enhanced IMF and
southward orientated Bz. Conditions weakened to unsettled and quiet
levels afterwards.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at predominantly quiet
levels, with an isolated unsettled period on day one (10 Feb) in
response to waning CME effects. Day two (11 Feb) is expected to be
mostly quiet until later in the day when unsettled conditions are
expected due to the IMF becoming slightly disturbed and enhanced due to
an approaching CIR. Day three (12 Feb) is expected see a few periods of
active conditions due to CIR and CH HSS effects.



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