Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 011230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 May 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The strongest flare of the period was
a C2/1f at 01/0922 UTC from Region 2539 (N15E20, Cao/beta). The region
developed a larger intermediate spot over the past 24 hours. Region 2536
(N17W05, Dai/beta) remained the largest sunspot group on the disk. Minor
dissipation was observed in its intermediate spots during the day. The
remaining regions on the Sun were relatively stable. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for
C-class flares all three days of the forecast period (01 - 03 May).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal to moderate
levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to
moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
continue at background levels three days of the forecast period (01 - 03
May).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected
slightly enhanced total magnetic field strength. Bt was between 5-9 nT
and the Bz was predominantly southward throughout the day. Solar wind
speeds were between 360-420 km/s, averaging around 380 km/s. Phi was
oriented in the negative (towards) sector until after 01/0800 UTC, when
a transition into the positive (away) sector was observed.

.Forecast...
An additional enhancement in solar wind parameters is possible on day
one (01 May) as the periphery of the 28 Apr CME passes by Earth. Solar
wind enhancements are may persist into early on day two (02 May). A
trend towards background conditions is expected mid-to late on day two
through day three (03 May).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
On day one (01 May), the geomagnetic field may reach unsettled to active
levels due to minor enhancements in the solar wind persisting coupled
with possible effects the periphery of the 28 Apr CME. Unsettled to
active conditions are likely early on day two (02 May). By mid to late
on day two (02 May) through day three (03 May), mostly quiet conditions
are likely as the solar wind environment returns to nominal conditions.


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