Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 160031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Sep 16 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 2157 (S15W74, Cai/beta-gamma)
and 2158 (N16W66, Dsi/beta-gamma) produced low level C-class flares.
The largest flare of the period was a C3/Sf at 15/0027 UTC from Region
2157. Region 2158 produced an impulsive C2 flare at 15/1815 UTC and had
an associated Type II radio sweep, however no CME is believed to exist,
based on X-ray profile alone. Further analysis will be conducted upon
the availability of SOHO LASCO imagery. In the event of a CME, based on
source location, the trajectory would likely be away from Earth. Region
2157 continued its decay trend along with Region 2158. The remaining
active regions were stable and unremarkable. No Earth-directed coronal
mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity and a slight chance for X-class (R3 or
greater) flare activity over the next two days (16-17 Sep). Day three
(18 Sep) solar activity is expected to be low with a lowered chance
for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) flare activity as Regions 2157 and 2158 begin
to rotate around the west limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and the
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has a slight chance for reaching S1
(Minor) solar radiation storm levels on days one and two (16-17 Sep) if
additional significant activity occurs from Regions 2157 or 2158.
Background proton flux levels are expected for day three (18 Sep). The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate
levels over the next three days (16-18 Sep).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were nominal. Solar wind speeds were steady,
averaging near 465 km/s. Total field ranged from 1 nT to 7 nT while the
Bz component was mostly north between +6 nT and -2 nT. Phi angle was
predominately at a negative (towards) orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain nominal on day one (16
Sep). Conditions are forecast to become slightly enhanced on days
two and three (17-18 Sep) due to the anticipated arrival of the 12 Sep
CME. Solar wind speeds are not forecast to increase, due to a slow
transit speeds, though a magnetic enhancement remains possible.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels on day one
(16 Sep). Quiet to active levels (Below G1-Minor) are forecast for day
two (17 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (18
Sep) due to effects from the 12 Sep CME.



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