Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
000
FXXX12 KWNP 131231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Jul 13 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels. Region 2108 (S07W84,
Eki/beta-gamma) produced a C4/Sf flare at 12/1408 UTC. The largest event
of the period was a C6/1f at 13/0903 UTC from Region 2109 (S08W66,
Dhi/beta). Both of these regions were little changed as they approach
the west limb and remain the largest and most threatening on the visible
disk.

Late in the period, Region 2113 (N07W12, Eao/beta) produced a C1/Sf
flare at 13/0951 UTC. Little change was noted in this region. The
remainder of the disk was quiet and stable with no Earth-directed CMEs
detected.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) are likely with a slight chance
for X-class (R3 or greater) flares on day one (13 Jul) with Region 2108
or 2109 being the likely source. As Region 2108 rotates around the west
limb, solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
flares on days two and three (14 - 15 Jul).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels
for the next three days (13 - 15 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain at background levels for the next three days
with a slight chance for an enhancement at or above the S1 (Minor)
threshold on 13 Jul if significant flare activity occurs.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a nominal solar wind
environment. Through 12/2050 UTC, solar wind speeds averaged about 375
km/s with a few peaks to 415 km/s. Through the remainder of the period,
speeds averaged in the 350 km/s range. IMF total field strength values
were steady between 5-8 nT while the Bz component was predominately
south at around -5 nT through about 12/1730 UTC when the field became
variable between +/- 5 nT. The phi angle was predominately oriented in a
positive (away) sector with some brief variability to a negative
(toward) sector at times through the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to become slightly enhanced late on
day one (13 Jul) and day two (14 Jul) due to a glancing-blow arrival of
the 09 Jul CME. A further enhancement is expected on day three (15 Jul)
due to a recurrent solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) associated with
a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) that is no
longer visible.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
days one and two (13 - 14 Jul) due to effects from the 09 Jul CME. By
day three (15 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
conditions are expected due to a SSBC.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.