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FXXX12 KWNP 211231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Oct 21 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was moderate.  Region 2192 (S15E26,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced four M-class(NOAA Scale R1, minor)
flares and several C-class events over the past 24 hours.  The largest
flare was an M4/2n event at 20/1637 UTC. Region 2192 continued to grow,
reaching approximately 2400 micro-hemispheres by 21/0137 UTC.

New Region 2194 (S14E64, Dao/beta) rotated onto the visible disk and was
numbered.  The remaining two spotted regions were stable or decaying.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

More M-class flares (R1-R2, minor to moderate) are likely from Region
2192, keeping solar activity at moderate levels.  There is a slight but
persistent chance for an X-class (R3 or greater) flare over the next
three days (21-23 Oct) from this same region.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the next three days (21-23 Oct).  There is a slight
chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement at or above the S1
(Minor) solar radiation storm level over the next three days (21-23 Oct)
as Region 2192 moves into a more favorable position on the solar disk.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind measurements at the ACE spacecraft reflected the influence of
a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).  Wind speed
began around 500 km/s and increased to near 600 km/s by 21/0500 UTC and
to almost 700 km/s by the end of the period.  Phi remained positive.  Bt
was at or below 10 nT while Bz fluctuated between 7 and -9 nT in the
first half of the period, becoming mostly positive or neutral after
21/0000 UTC.

The influence of high speed solar wind streams is expected to persist
over the next three days (21-23 Oct).


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm (NOAA Scale G1 -
minor) levels in response to a positive polarity CH HSS.  Major storm
levels were reported at high latitudes.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels
for day one (21 Oct) with the onset of the coronal hole.  Unsettled to
active conditions, with a slight chance for a minor storm period, are
expected for days 2 and 3 (22-23 Oct) as the high speed stream becomes
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