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FXXX12 KWNP 011231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Feb 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels over the period.  The largest flares
were a C3 at 01/1133 and a C2/2f at 01/0436 UTC from Region 2268
(S10W52, Fki/beta-gamma) as well as a C2/Sf at 01/0645 UTC from Region
2277 (N08E25, Fkc/beta-gamma).  Decay was observed in the trailing spots
of Region 2268, while penumbral growth was seen in the leading spots of
Region 2277.  The rest of the spotted regions appeared to be in decay.
No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) over the next three days (01-03 Feb) with a slight
chance for
X-class flaring (R3-Strong or greater).  The most likely source for any
enhanced flare activity remains both Regions 2268 and 2277 due to their
large size and complex magnetic structures.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit remained slightly enhanced early in the period, but declined to
near background levels by periods end.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast
to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (01-02 Feb)
with moderate to high levels possible on day three (03 Feb) due to
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence. A slight chance for
the greater than 10 MeV proton flux reaching S1-Minor or greater levels
is possible on 01-03 Feb due to potential significant flare activity
from Region 2268.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters appeared to indicate a potential co-rotating
interaction region (CIR) beginning around 31/2200 UTC.  An increase in
density along with a rise in total field to 13 nT was shortly followed
by an increase in solar wind speed from approximately 400 km/s to 550
km/s.  Total field measurements ranged from 1 nT to 14 nT with the Bz
component between -8 nT and +10 nT.  Phi angle was variable during this
time in both positive and negative sectors.

Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced under CH
HSS influence for the next three days (01-03 Feb).  Solar wind speeds
could potentially reach the 550 km/s to 650 km/s range.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to the onset of
a potential CIR.

Quiet to active levels are expected for the rest of the UTC day on day
one (01 Feb) with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming due to CH
HSS activity. By days two and three (02-03 Feb), quiet to active
conditions are expected. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.