Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 241231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Sep 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at very low levels with only background flare
activity observed. Both Regions 2593 (N07W66, Eao/beta) and 2596
(N05W81, Cao/beta) exhibited little change as they approached the west
limb. Region 2597 (S13W07, Dsc/beta-gamma) showed trailer and
intermediate spot growth with evidence of a mixed polarity configuration
within its intermediate spots. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class
flares throughout the forecast period (24-26 Sep).


Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
with a peak flux of 517 pfu observed at 23/1625 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on all three days (24-26 Sep) of the forecast period.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained at background levels. Total magnetic
field strength ranged from 5-7 nT while the Bz component was primarily
northward to 6 nT throughout the period. Solar wind speeds continued a
gradual decreasing trend through the period with speeds declining from
400 km/s to about 375 km/s. Phi angle was in a predominately negative
orientation over the past 24 hours.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to be at near-background levels
on day one (24 Sep). A minor enhancement in density and total field
strength is likely on day two (25 Sep) from an anticipated SSBC. Day
three (26 Sep) is expected to observe further enhancement from the onset
of a recurrent, trans-equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Quiet levels are expected on day one (24 Sep). Quiet to unsettled levels
are likely on day two (25 Sep) from an anticipated SSBC. Unsettled to
active conditions are likely on day three (26 Sep) due to the onset of a
recurrent, trans-equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS enhancing the
near-Earth space environment.


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