Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 020030
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Mar 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 2290 (N20W83, Hsx/alpha)
produced the only events of the period, a C1/Sf at 01/0210 UTC, a C3/Sf
at 01/0513 UTC and a C6 at 01/1613 UTC. Region 2292 (S09W31, Dai/beta)
continued to show growth in its intermediate and trailer spot areas. The
other regions on the disk were either stable or in decay. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low (Below R1-Minor) over the next three
days (02-04 Mar).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (02-04 Mar)
with a chance for high levels towards the end of the period following
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background
levels (Below S1-Minor) over the next three days (02-04 Mar).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at the ACE spacecraft were indicative of the
arrival of the anticipated co-rotating interaction region (CIR)
preceding the onset of the negative polarity southern polar CH HSS.
Solar wind speeds continued to increase from initial values near 485
km/s to peak values near 585 km/s. IMF total field values varied
between 5-12 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward component of -10 nT.
The phi angle was generally steady in a negative (toward) solar sector
orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to become further enhanced on day
one (02 Mar) as the negative polarity southern polar CH HSS moves into
geoeffective position. Recurrence data suggests solar wind velocities in
excess of 700 km/s and Bt values in excess of 20 nT could be observed
during this event. CH HSS influence is expected to begin to subside on
day two (03 Mar) and into day three (04 Mar).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
conditions (observed between 01/0145-0900 UTC) due to the onset of a CIR
preceding the main CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to active
levels with periods of G1 (Minor) conditions on day one (02 Mar) with
quiet to active levels expected on day two (03 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (04 Mar) as CH HSS effects wane.



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