Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311530
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SURROUNDING THE 1010 MB LOW NEAR
12N121W. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS
NO LONGER EVIDENT AND WAS DROPPED FROM THE 12OO UTC ANALYSIS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF
CENTER OVER SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 12N119W TO
11N121W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W. ANOTHER
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS THE
PERSISTENT LOCATION OF THE LOW ON THE S SIDE OF A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG ROUGHLY 120W/121W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS INCREASING IN THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES W-NW NEAR
10 KT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N103W TO 18N104W MOVING W NEAR 10
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE S OF 13N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF WAVE FROM 13N TO 16N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W ALONG 9N85W 10N103W
10N113W TO 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N123W 10N130W TO SECOND 1010 MB
LOW 11N135W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 96W AND
WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 98W AND 106W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210
NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 91W AND FROM 9N TO 12N
BETWEEN 128W AND 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N
TO 7N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W AND FROM 8N TO 16N BETWEEN 106W AND
117W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE 1010 MB LOW W OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
11N135W. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER OVER THE SW
QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 135W AND 139W.

THE REMNANTS OF HERNAN IS A SMALL LOW LEVEL SWIRL AND IS
ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 125W/126W
BETWEEN 24N AND 29N.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE STRONG BREEZES THAT HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS PLUME COMBINED WITH NE TO E WINDS FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TOGETHER CONVERGED WITH SW FLOW
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE COLLISION OF THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW
HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCREASE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. WEAKER PULSES OF GAP WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED.

$$
PAW



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