Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241528
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI OCT 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS DRIVING NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
BELIEVED TO BE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUN MORNING AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD OF PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW. THE WINDSAT PASS FROM 2358 UTC THU
SHOWED A CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE WIND AFTER PASSING S OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH A BROAD CENTER NEAR 13N93W. AS THE
WIND INTENSIFIES...THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR IN THIS AREA.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 11N89W TO
09N100W TO 12N119W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 78W AND 82W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 02N TO 06N E
OF 84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 92W AND 100W AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 101W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W
AND 133W AS WELL AS W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...
A RELATIVELY WEAK 1016 MB SUBTROPICAL SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 27N130W AND EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1015 MB
HIGH CENTER NEAR 12N114W TO 15N112W. ASCAT SATELLITE DATA AND
SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. A COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NW WATERS FROM 30N136W TO 29N140W WITH
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS WITHIN
180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. NW SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE USHERED SOUTHEASTWARD...HOWEVER. SEAS TO 11
FT ARE CURRENTLY FOUND NEAR THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
NEAR 30N140W AND WILL BUILD TO 13 FT OVER THE WEEKEND.

A LINGERING AREA OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS MIXED WITH CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL...BRINGING SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE AREA S OF 11N
BETWEEN 100W AND 128W. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY THROUGH SAT...WITH
THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS SHIFTING EAST COVERING THE WATERS S OF 07N
BETWEEN 91W AND 110W BEFORE MERGING WITH THE PLUME OF GAP WIND
SWELL OCCURRING S IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN.

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH S OF PANAMA. THIS
CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. BROAD UPPER
DIFFLUENCE LIES OVER THIS AREA BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
NEAR JAMAICA AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
THE GALAPAGOS AND THE MAINLAND. THERE IS AMPLE MOISTURE
HERE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 50
MILLIMETERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE HERE OVER THE WEEKEND.

$$
SCHAUER



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