Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232123
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ILL-DEFINED. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N91W TO 05N110W TO 04N120W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 78W AND 88W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 12N
BETWEEN 105W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CORNER N OF 20N W OF
127W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 110W AND 127W TO INCLUDE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN THE
DEEP TROPICS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
06N133W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 20N BETWEEN 100W AND
130W PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ITCZ AND
ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 130W.
FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 90W TO INCLUDE OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 32N139W
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR
20N110W. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED MOVE SW TO 30N145W AND LOOSEN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS PRESENTLY FROM
09N TO 20N W OF 130W AND FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W
WITH NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...AN
AREA OF WINDS AND SWELL IS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. PRESENTLY N OF
25N E OF 126W NW TO N WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS 9 TO 11 FT
IN NW SWELL.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 17-18
SECONDS WILL MIX WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE TRADE
WIND FLOW AND CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA
OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS E OF 130W AND S
OF LINE FROM 13N130W TO 10N110W TO 3.4S90W BY THU MORNING...AND
E OF 125W AND S OF LINE FROM 15N125W TO 17N110W TO 05N92W BY FRI
MORNING. EXPECT ALSO BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT E OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS TO ABOUT 2N.  BASED ON WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE...THIS SWELL
EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE MEXICAN COAST E OF 110W THU
NIGHT...AND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA
OF CORTEZ EARLY ON FRI...BRINGING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS TO THOSE
COAST.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
FORMOSA


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