Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301453
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO INTO THE REGION NEAR
17N100W TO 11N101W MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK DURING THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 12N94W TO
09N119W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N119W TO 08N138W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 07N90W TO 09N95W...AND ALSO A LINE FROM
09N97W TO 10N110W.

SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150
NM SW OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 88W AND 100W...AND WITHIN
180 NM BETWEEN 104W AND 108W. THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ON FRI AND THEN PROPAGATED OFFSHORE.

...DISCUSSION...

1006 MB LOW PRES...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS POSITIONED NEAR
31N134W. OVERNIGHT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES
SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW
N OF 28N BETWEEN 134W AND 139W WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 10-12 FT IN
A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. THE LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH A WESTWARD DRIFT EXPECTED. AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD
IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

A 1025 MB HIGH HAS REFORMED TO THE NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 40N160W EXTENDING A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 40N130W
AND THEN CURVING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 30N126W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW
PORTION OF MEXICO HAS BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
HOWEVER THE LATEST DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE
GRADIENT HAS RELAXED ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO
FRESH LEVELS. AS THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...SO HAVE THE SEAS
WHICH ARE NOW 6-7 FT IN THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT BY 48 HOURS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 109W.

$$
LEWITSKY



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