Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220351
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 06N77W TO 07N86W TO 06N95W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE
A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH AT 07N111W WITH THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUING W TO BEYOND
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N78W TO
06N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N107W TO
07N120W AND FROM 07N131W TO 09N140W. THE EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 05N111W TO 12N110W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N111W TO 16N103W.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO BASE OVER THE PACIFIC AT 15N118W.
UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE INTO THE THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS NW MEXICO. ANOTHER BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE
IS NOTED FURTHER N AND NOW MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.

A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION
BETWEEN 116-170W...CONTINUES TO STREAM E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA WITHIN 330 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N140W TO
10N120W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUING WITHIN 300 NM OF LINE FROM 13N112W TO OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT 18N102W...THEN NARROWS AS IT
CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN TURNING NE AND
FANNING OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE SE CONUS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 32N132W TO 17N107W. THE GRADIENT
IS MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 118-126W THROUGH TUE EARLY
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH
AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 07-19N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY
RELAXING AND THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK TONIGHT
AND MON WITH WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS ON
MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 104W...RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-13 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THE
CURRENT 7-10 FT CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT ON MON AND MON NIGHT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30
KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 29N ON
TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE NIGHT...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT
THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ON WED MORNING...
THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND
FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE
GALE EVENT TO END ON THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-25 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WHICH WILL EXTEND AS FAR SW AS 08N92W LATE FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT EXCEPT 10-15 KT CONDITIONS BRIEFLY LATE MON.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH
20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT IN LONG FETCH
WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED
WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON
THU.

$$
NELSON



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