Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092146
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 20 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THU
MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ON
THU EVENING. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A
LITTLE INCREASING THE FLOW TO STRONG GALE FORCE ON FRI THROUGH
EARLY SUN. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE S MERGING WITH ENE SWELL
GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 04-10N BETWEEN 90-
105W ON WED NIGHT WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 93-110W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF PAPAGAYO
THROUGH WED MORNING THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE
WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THEN DEVELOP AGAIN WED NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE CONDITIONS
WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR FLOW
EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N94W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING TO
ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N89W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 12N
BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF
FONSECA WITH SEAS TO ABOUT 8 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 06N89W
AND WIGGLES SW TO 04N103W...THEN NW TO 06N110W...SW TO 04N120W...
NW AGAIN TO 06N130W...THEN TURNS SW TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N90W TO 07N105W TO 03N114W TO
06N125W.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM
24N120W TO 21N107W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE
WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 107-
120W...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
WED...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 20N W
OF 112W ON WED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97-
107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GALE EVENT ACROSS THE WATERS
TO THE E OF 97W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE OF CONDITIONS IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. STRONG NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRESH NW WINDS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS N OF 24N. MODERATE NW FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF ON WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 9 FT NEAR
06N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 06-12N W OF 130W THROUGH
WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS WAVE
AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
WED...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW
SWELL PROPAGATES SE ACROSS THE ARE BEHIND A COLD FRONT REACHING
NEAR 32N136W TO 26N140W LATE THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY
STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 29-32N
W OF 138W BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT.

$$
NELSON


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