Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220300 CCA
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Aug 22 2017

Corrected to fix date and time

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

The center of Hurricane Kenneth at 22/0300 UTC is near 19.2N
132.1W, moving NW or 315 degrees at 9 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 969 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speed is 90 knots with gusts to 120 knots. Numerous strong
convection is from 18N to 20N between 130W and 132W. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 17N to 22N between 130W
and 132W. Kenneth is forecast to weaken steadily and become a
tropical storm by Wednesday. Please refer to the National
Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers
WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas Forecast under
WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for more information.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 98W from 18N southward to 10N, moving
westward at 15 to 20 knots. No significant convection is
associated with this wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to low pressure near
10N89W 1010 mb to 10N105W to 10N115W to 07N125W, resuming near
14N133W beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within
210 nm S of its axis between 102W and 120W and within 120 nm W
of 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough will prevail along the eastern side of the Baja
California Peninsula and Gulf of California through the end of
the week with a weak surface low developing at times along the
trough to the north of 29N. The pressure gradient between this
elongated area of low pressure and surface ridging W of the area
will allow for moderate NW winds off Baja California through
early Friday, then decreasing to a gentle breeze. Seas will
range between 3 to 5 ft seas.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to fresh northerly winds will
funnel into the Gulf of Tehuantepec each night through early Wed
with seas to 7 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are expected N of the monsoon trough
through Friday while moderate to locally fresh WSW winds are
expected S of the monsoon trough axis, with 4 to 6 ft seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 36N139W. A ridge extends
to the southeast, through 18N115W. N swell generated by strong
northerly winds N of the area is building seas of 8-9 ft north
of 29N between 127W and 134W through early Tue, then conditions
will merge with Hurricane Kenneth. Moderate to locally fresh
anticyclonic flow is forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough
and W of 120W.

$$
NR



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