Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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464
FXUS62 KFFC 261931
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
331 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

High pressure over the region will shift southeast into Saturday.
Have continued with slight chance to chance pops across far north
Georgia late Saturday afternoon as models continue to advertise
a frontal boundary settling over the Tennessee Valley, with
convection firing along it. At this time, modeled surface
instabilities, steep lapse rates and deep layer shear could result
in strong to severe storms. That being said, at least for now,
coverage of these stronger storms should be low, with some hi-res
solutions not even advertising any of the thunderstorm activity
working its way into the state. Have continued with a forecast
compromise with a blend of the models. For any strong storms that
develop/move over the area, expect the main hazards to be gusty
winds and hail.


31


.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
No major changes were made to the long-term forecast. Main focus
continues to be increasing potential for convection by late Sunday
into Monday. Refer to the previous long-term discussion below for
additional details.

RW

/Issued 406 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017/

Primary concern in the long term period is deep convection
associated with baroclinic zone forecast to sag into the state
late Sunday and Monday.

00Z medium range guidance in fair agreement that front will slip
in Monday and that lift and resulting rainfall will be less than
what we have seen with last few systems this month. Overall
pattern favorable for strong/severe storms in SWly flow aloft on
periphery of upper ridge which extends from TX to OH/TN valleys
thru Monday. GA appears to be mostly dry, dominated by upper
ridging thru late Sunday, though far northern areas could see a
few storms slip in, especially if a large MCS could develop in TN
and propagate SE. Instability should be sufficient for
strong/severe storms, should any make it into the state, however
vertical wind shear will be weak, especially as you go further
south away from stronger westerlies along periphery of ridge.

Front finally pushes through Monday night/Tuesday but with no
well defined short wave, not much lift will accompany its passage.
As front stalls over far south GA, should see mostly dry weather
until Wed night or Thursday when warm advection ahead of weak,
nearly stalled southern stream wave over TX and lower MS valley
brings moisture back. Total rainfall Sunday-Tuesday likely to be
0.5 to 1 inch in north GA and less than 0.5 inch elsewhere.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will stay on
the west side. Wind speeds will diminish to 6kt or less
overnight, then increase to 7-10kt with gusts to 15-16kt after
15z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  88  69  89 /   0  10  10  20
Atlanta         65  87  71  87 /   0   5  10  10
Blairsville     60  82  63  82 /   5  30  30  40
Cartersville    63  86  69  88 /   0  10  20  20
Columbus        64  89  71  90 /   0   5  10  10
Gainesville     65  85  69  86 /   0  10  20  20
Macon           62  90  68  91 /   0   5  10  10
Rome            63  85  68  87 /   0  20  30  30
Peachtree City  61  87  68  88 /   0   5  10  10
Vidalia         64  91  70  94 /   0   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...31



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