Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 251942
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
342 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017



.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

A fairly amplified mid/upper level pattern is present over the US
today...as a broad trough extends from the west coast into the
Plains and a ridge takes shape downstream from the Plains into the
western Atlantic. At the sfc...extensive areas of high pressure
exist on both sides of a cold frontal system that is located roughly
from the lower Hudson bay SWWD into the TX panhandle and eastern NM.
Hurricane Maria evident on satellite imagery east of the Outer Banks
and moving slowly north.

Beautiful day across the CWA thanks to high pressure both at the sfc
and aloft. Warm temps in the mid and upper 80s are tempered somewhat
by mid-lower 60s dewpoints. A weak upper disturbance...evident on wv
vapor imagery along the LA/MS/AL coast vicinity has generated some
showers and thunderstorms to our west. This activity will not reach
the CWA today or tonight and the low should push slowly south into
the Gulf.

Continued drying trend expected through Tuesday as high pressure
continues to influence the area. Given the generally clear and calm
conditions overnight tonight...could see some patchy fog...though
lack of appreciable moisture should keep it isolated. Upper ridge
will keep temps warm tomorrow...perhaps one or two degrees higher
than today. Should stay below record high temps...tho ATL could be
close. Maria will continue north...near the far eastern OBX...where
most cloud cover should remain east of the CWA. Should be another
beautiful day across the area.


Kovacik


.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

No big changes for the long term. Still looks like dry weather
will continue through mid week. Low pops return mainly for central
areas for the weekend into the first of the week as a weak front
settles across the area...and a weak short wave drifts across the
northern Gulf. Previous discussion is included below.

41


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 330 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017/

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
Medium-range models remain fairly consistent with recent
previous runs through the extended forecast period. Still looking
at a warm and dry start to the forecast as the region remains
under the influence of a large upper-level ridge. Ridge breaks
down as we head into the weekend as an upper-level trough moves
into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and northeastern U.S. Models
have backed off somewhat on the amount of lowering we should see
in thickness values and on how dry the airmass will become over
the region, but we are still looking at a return to more seasonal
temperatures by the end of the period. Weak, "orphaned", upper low
over the northern Gulf of Mexico may bring some precipitation
chances back into the region as well over the weekend and into the
beginning of next week.

20



AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions are expected through this TAF cycle. Expecting
FEW-SCT diurnal cu around 5kft this afternoon...dissipating after
sunset. Most of the higher cloud cover associated with Maria
should remain east of the TAF sites through Tuesday. Another cu
field expected Tuesday afternoon. Winds will remain NE between
8-12kt today...becoming calm overnight...and increasing to less
than 10kts Tuesday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  88  67  90 /   5  10   5   0
Atlanta         68  88  69  89 /   5   5   5   0
Blairsville     58  83  60  85 /   5   5   5   5
Cartersville    64  88  63  89 /   5   5   5   0
Columbus        68  90  69  93 /   5   5   5   0
Gainesville     66  86  67  88 /   5   5   5   0
Macon           65  89  66  92 /   5   5   5   5
Rome            63  89  64  90 /   5   5   0   0
Peachtree City  62  88  64  90 /   5   5   5   0
Vidalia         67  89  70  91 /   5   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kovacik
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Kovacik



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