Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 202330 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DRIER AIR HAS BROUGHT
CLEARING SKIES TO MUCH OF THE CWA AND THINK THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS
OVER THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY BUT NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
BY 06Z. HAVE KEPT POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE ATLANTA TO ATHENS AREAS
MONDAY  NIGHT. NO INSTABILITY INDICATED MONDAY NIGHT SO HAVE NO
MENTION OF THUNDER. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ADJUSTED POPS UP ON TUESDAY TO...LIKELY(60-70%)...FOR PORTIONS OF
N AND CENTRAL GA AS AMBLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. OTHERWISE MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE
FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED
LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z TUE. ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP
THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS
INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LEES INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL
KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER WE WILL SEEN. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
IN FOR WED AND THU. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
AREA AGAIN BY FRI AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE
FRI SYSTEM THAN THE TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING THERE SHOWING LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SE HOW
THINGS DEVELOP

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS STILL HOVERING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
5KT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD SHIFT AROUND NW AND W ON
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. CURRENT TIMING IS AROUND 17Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF WIND SHIFT.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          47  77  54  80 /   0   0  10  70
ATLANTA         51  75  59  77 /   0   0  10  70
BLAIRSVILLE     43  74  52  71 /   0   0  30  70
CARTERSVILLE    47  75  55  75 /   0   0  20  70
COLUMBUS        50  78  57  78 /   0   0  10  70
GAINESVILLE     49  74  56  75 /   0   0  20  70
MACON           46  77  53  80 /   5   0   5  60
ROME            47  76  55  74 /   0   0  30  70
PEACHTREE CITY  45  76  54  77 /   0   0  10  70
VIDALIA         50  77  54  81 /   5   0   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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