Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 261852
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
252 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON. WV/500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS AND SHORTWAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONT. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CWFA. THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR DO HAVE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF ZONES LATE THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THAT REGION...ALONG WITH THE WEAK/STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. MODELS ARE PROGGING AN MCS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH OF
THE CWFA...BUT THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CLIP
THE NORTHERN ZONES. POPS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 TO 40
PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG ANY MCS TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE CWFA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT. MOST OF THE MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL SKATE BY TO THE NORTH. EVEN SO...DO THINK
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG...COULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN ZONES BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT...SOME LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS. LEANED HARD ON WPC MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF TN SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO N GA
MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO NW GA BY 06Z-12Z MON AND PUSH SOUTH TO THE FL BORDER BY 12Z
TUE. AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS GA INSTABILITIES INCREASE WITH
CAPES EXPECTED AROUND 1000 TO 3000 J/KG AND LIS RANGING FROM -3
TO -7. SHEAR VALUES DO NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT THEY DO
INCREASE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE DAY
2 SLIGHT RISK AREA COMING SOUTH OUT OF TN RIGHT TO OUR NORTHERN
BORDER BY 12Z MON. SPC AS GA ON DAY 3 IN JUST A SEE TEXT AREA.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THAT EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AN UPPER
LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH TUE/WED. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
IN ACROSS THE AREA DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND
LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

01

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958



RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
RELATIVELY QUIET TAF PERIOD ON TAP WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND NO PRECIP
EXPECTED AT ATL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND
DID INCLUDE SOME GUSTS DURING THE DAY THAT WILL RELAX DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH THE SAME AT OTHER TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOG WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT AHN AND CSG OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

WILLIS/NLISTEMAA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  95  76  91 /   5  10  20  20
ATLANTA         74  93  76  87 /   5  10  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     67  88  68  80 /   0  20  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    71  93  74  87 /   5  10  30  20
COLUMBUS        76  95  76  92 /  10  10  10  50
GAINESVILLE     73  93  74  87 /   5  10  30  20
MACON           74  95  77  93 /  10  10  10  50
ROME            71  94  74  87 /   0  20  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  72  93  75  89 /   5  10  20  30
VIDALIA         77  95  78  94 /  10  20  10  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...WILLIS/NLISTEMAA




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