Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 231133 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
635 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BROAD DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INSTABILITY IS
LACKING AND FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY CONVECTION
OF EVEN MODERATE DEPTH WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE. VWP DATA FROM
REGIONAL RADARS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS HAVE YET TO LOWER BELOW
ABOUT 10-15KFT AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODERATE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LATER TODAY AS WELL.
BETTER FORCING LATER TODAY AS THE STRONGER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY IS BEST. NORTHERN RANGE OF
THIS THREAT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN
LIFT. CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS THE EXPECTED EXTENT WELL.
MAY BE A SLIGHT LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD SPREAD IN ONCE AGAIN BY
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
STATE AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.

20


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE STARTS STREAMING BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE DEEPENING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. HIGHEST POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER EAST CENTRAL ZONES.
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS FOR FAR NORTH GA
BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE MOISTURE ACTUALLY GETS. HAVE
LEFT ANY POPS OUT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.

41


&&

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT CROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. EMBEDDED...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 00Z. EAST WINDS 8-12KT WILL INCREASE
WITH GUSTS 17-22KT...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  52  68  40 / 100  80  20  10
ATLANTA         60  54  66  41 / 100  60  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  49  61  34 / 100  80  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    60  52  65  36 / 100  50  20  10
COLUMBUS        66  59  72  42 / 100  50  20  10
GAINESVILLE     57  52  64  40 / 100  80  20  10
MACON           66  60  73  43 / 100  70  20  10
ROME            59  52  63  36 / 100  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  61  54  67  38 / 100  50  20  10
VIDALIA         71  64  74  49 / 100  80  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20


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