Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 261448

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1048 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

High pressure will continue to the east, while an old frontal
boundary remains situated across the Mid Mississippi River Valley.
Have made a few tweaks to the forecast for the afternoon.

Models were a bit too pessimistic with the cloud cover for the
late morning early afternoon hours, especially for the western
half of the state where drier air currently resides. However, the
latest GOES-R imagery shows cu have begun to pop under the clear
areas and do expect the field to expand.

Also, have reduced the pop coverage for this afternoon, especially
for areas along and south of Interstate 20. There won`t be much
mid/surface forcing present, lapse rates are weak and surface
instability will be very marginal. Do think scattered showers will
be likely, but the chances for thunder remain small (isolated).


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 746 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 421 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...

Fairly active pattern with low impactful conditions for this short
term. First upper disturbance will continue to allow scattered
shower development pushing NEWD this morning with a brief lull in
coverage likely into mid morning. Convective initiation and increase
in shower or storm coverage is possible this afternoon with any
destabilization before the main wave axis is east of the area.
Median SBCAPE values from short term ensemble guidance is not
impressive (around 500 J/kg) along with just marginal deep layer
bulk shear values in the far north. Thinking any isolated strong to
severe development is less likely now though cannot rule out.

Another upper wave is quickly on the heels of the first and should
approach the area by late Monday afternoon. Progged conditional
instability does look a bit higher though any favorable severe
parameters stay mainly across the western TN valley into north AL.
Will maintain general chance pops for showers/storms across the NW
majority of the CWA and again cannot rule out a few strong to
isolated severe development.

Temps given this persistent southerly advection will stay at least 5-
7 degrees above normal for highs today and slightly warmer for
Monday with many locations close to the 80 mark.


LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...

The unsettled weather pattern continues at the beginning of the long
term as another upper wave traverses the area. The best chance for
thunderstorm activity overnight Monday into Tuesday will be in north
Georgia where limited shear and better forcing will exist. However,
given the aforementioned limited shear as well as waning instability
during this time frame, severe thunderstorms are not a major
concern at this time.

This first wave and associated precipitation will exit the area by
Wednesday. Most of the area will remain dry Wednesday with upper
ridging in place. This relative break in activity will be short-
lived as the next storm system will be fast approaching by late
Thursday into Friday. Hence the chance for showers and thunderstorms
will quickly increase. There are still notable model discrepancies
regarding the evolution of this system as it approaches the area
with the GFS continuing to indicate a more southerly and resultant
stormier solution. Nonetheless, thunderstorms are a good bet with
this system.

By the weekend this storm system will have exited eastward with
relatively quiet weather being indicated for at least a couple days.

Temperatures will remain warm through the period with highs in the
70s and 80s expected across the area.


12Z Update...
Some MVFR to IFR cig lowering in wake of overnight showers. Given
a lull in development this morning, coverage should increase through
the day. Have VCSH carrying after 15z and tempo for TSRA and
reduced VSBYs from 19-23z if enough destabilization occurs with
disturbance swinging across area. Afternoon cigs mainly in
3500-5000 ft range then expect lowering again to at least MVFR
early Monday morning. Winds mainly 7-10 kts SSE with possible
shift to SSW after 15z near KATL. Could go SSE again from 00-05z
this evening before staying SSW beyond.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Low on morning cigs.
Medium on precip coverage and TS potential.
High on all else.



Athens          75  58  79  58 /  40  30  30  30
Atlanta         75  60  78  60 /  30  30  30  40
Blairsville     67  54  71  54 /  40  40  40  60
Cartersville    75  58  77  58 /  30  30  40  60
Columbus        79  61  81  60 /  20  20  30  30
Gainesville     72  58  75  58 /  40  30  30  60
Macon           80  60  82  59 /  30  20  20  20
Rome            74  57  77  58 /  30  40  50  60
Peachtree City  76  58  78  57 /  30  30  30  30
Vidalia         80  60  82  61 /  30  10  20  20




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