Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 290036
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
836 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 241 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016/
SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
Latest surface analysis shows a pre-frontal trough near a Carrollton
to Gainesville line... with area radars showing numerous showers and
thunderstorms developing along and south of this trough axis. Hires
radar models show this convection pushing south of the Atlanta metro
area by 4-5 pm... but think it could be slightly sooner. Expect the
frontal trough to continue sagging southward into central GA this
afternoon-evening... shifting the greater rain chances and
thunderstorm threat there through the afternoon and evening hours.
Although no widespread severe storms are expected with marginal
instability and forcing expected to persist... a few storms could
become strong and possibly even severe mainly across parts of
central GA during max heating... with strong gusty winds... very
heavy rain... and occasional cloud to ground lightning being the
main storm threats through the early to mid evening hours.
Models show the drier air spreading into north GA this afternoon and
overnight... and eventually spreading into central GA early
Wednesday morning. However... they agree on the trough/front
stalling somewhere near a Columbus to Macon line on Wednesday. This
will warrant holding onto a chance of mainly afternoon convection
for parts of central GA on Wednesday.
Otherwise... went with a mav and met blend through the period for
temps... and increased pops above guidance where needed for this
evening and then across parts of central GA for Wednesday afternoon.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.
The July 4th weekend looks to be very summer-like with the
least shower and thunderstorm activity on Saturday and the most
on Monday. Stayed tuned to future forecasts.
Models in good agreement through the long term. The eastern H5
trough will continue to have weak short waves moving rapidly
through the flow. This will be enough to continue the risk of
thunderstorms to parts of the CWA...mainly south of the fall line.
As the eastern trough flattens this weekend...a ridge of high
pressure will build into the Gulf of Mexico spreading moisture
into the Southeast U.S. This will increase chances of
thunderstorms across the CWA Saturday through Independence
Day...with the highest chances across north Georgia.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly across central GA are
slowly moving south. There are still some showers over CSG and
MCN but they should end within the hour. Expecting more precip Wed
afternoon but it should be mainly confined to the Central GA TAF
sites as drier air moves into N GA. Winds start out of the E to NE
and are expected to turn to the NW overnight. The winds will
continue to turn to the W through Wed afternoon. Wind speeds
expected to stay 10kt or less. ceilings will stay VFR with no
restrictions to VSBYS expected.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 68 92 68 91 / 20 20 20 30
Atlanta 71 92 71 90 / 20 10 10 20
Blairsville 62 86 61 84 / 10 10 10 30
Cartersville 66 91 64 90 / 10 10 10 20
Columbus 72 91 71 92 / 40 30 20 30
Gainesville 69 91 69 88 / 20 20 10 20
Macon 71 92 70 93 / 40 30 20 40
Rome 67 92 65 90 / 10 10 10 10
Peachtree City 68 91 67 91 / 30 20 10 20
Vidalia 74 91 73 92 / 70 50 40 50