Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 261426
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1026 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017


.UPDATE...
Current forecast continues on track. No chnages made.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 734 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 406 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
The radar is quiet at this time as earlier convection has
diminished. There are no big pattern changes today with troughing
still in place primarily across southeast Georgia. The upper level
impulse that slowly moved across the southern portions of the CWA on
Tuesday now lingers across southeast Georgia this morning. This
setup will again concentrate the best chance for precipitation
across south and eastern sections of the CWA today with less
convective coverage farther to the north and west. With continued
high PWATs at or above 2 inches in southeastern portions of the CWA,
any slow moving thunderstorms in this area could produce heavy
rainfall amounts as was seen in some localized areas today in the
vicinity of the slowly moving MCV. Additionally, a few thunderstorms
could briefly pulse to severe levels during the afternoon/evening
hours with damaging wind gusts the primary concern. Showers and
thunderstorms will diminish in coverage overnight with the loss of
daytime heating.

On Thursday, the lingering weak upper impulse will have progressed
little across far southeast Georgia which will serve as one focus for
convection. Otherwise, a cold front will be moving southward across
the Ohio Valley. While the front as well as the best upper support
remains north of the state on Thursday, shortwave energy will
approach the area by late Thursday. A risk for strong to severe
thunderstorms will exist by Thursday evening with damaging wind
gusts again the primary risk.

High temperatures will continue to be hot through the short term
with highs generally in the low to mid 90s for most areas. The
exceptions will be in the mountains as well as in southeastern
portions of the CWA today where more cloud cover will likely hold
temperatures in the 80s.

RW

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
Models in good agreement through the long term. The weak upper
trough over the eastern US will deepen early in the long term
driving a cold front across the CWA Friday and Saturday. This will
bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the CWA
with the best chances across north GA Friday and across central GA
Saturday. Instability will increase along and ahead of the cold
front allowing a few storms to reach severe limits. Relatively
drier and cooler air will move into the CWA behind the front for
the end of the long term.

17

AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Areas of IFR ceilings/vsbys are affecting MCN/CSG/AHN TAF sites
this morning, while ATL area sites remain VFR. Expect these low
ceilings to last through about 14z before improvement occurs,
while ATL area sites will likely remain VFR. By midday, a cumulus
field at 4-5kft will develop with scattered convection becoming
more prevalent during the afternoon and evening. Calm to light
northwesterly winds this morning should transition to northeast
winds by around 14z and remain on the east side through the
remainder of the period. There is some potential for low ceilings
again by Thursday AM but confidence remains low.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence on timing of easterly wind shift.
Low confidence on Thursday AM low cloud potential.
High confidence on all other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  71  92  74 /  40  20  40  10
Atlanta         91  74  91  75 /  30  20  30   5
Blairsville     87  67  86  69 /  40  30  40  20
Cartersville    92  72  92  73 /  30  10  30  10
Columbus        92  74  93  76 /  40  30  40   0
Gainesville     90  72  89  73 /  40  30  40  10
Macon           91  72  92  74 /  40  30  30   5
Rome            94  73  93  74 /  20  10  30  20
Peachtree City  92  71  92  74 /  30  20  30   5
Vidalia         86  73  90  74 /  60  40  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...01



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