Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 051518
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1118 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...

STARTING TO SEE THE LIGHT SHRA ACTIVITY ROLL INTO PORTIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS AT THIS HOUR...A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. EXPECT THESE TO
INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE NE ZONES AND INDICATED A
SHARP GRADIENT BACK TO THE ATLANTA METRO. ONLY OTHER CHANGE FOR
THIS UPDATE WAS TO ADD THE MENTION OF SMALL HAIL TO THE HWO AS LOW
FREEZING LEVEL WILL ALLOW FOR EVEN THE SLIGHTEST OF CONVECTION TO
PRODUCE HAIL/GRAUPEL.

&&


DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SAME UPPER TROUGH DISCUSSED ALL WEEK CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE CAROLINAS TODAY.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE AS EARLY AS MID MORNING...AND
INCREASE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT DIURNAL
HEATING TO ALLOW MINIMAL /NON-ZERO/ CAPE TO PRODUCE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD DROP OF
DRAMATICALLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. COLD CORE SYSTEM ALOFT COULD
ALLOW SOME GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT AT THIS
TIME THINKING EVEN THIS COULD BE A STRETCH FOR OUR AREA. AND
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THE CAROLINA MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A
FLURRY OR TO...ANY WINTER PRECIP POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE ENHANCED WINDS ACROSS THE STATE.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 15-25MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 35MPH+. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 11PM TODAY. WIND SPEEDS
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY...BUT AT THIS TIME
WILL BE SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST MODEL
TRENDS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF AN ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY AFTER ALL.

THIS UNUSUAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE UPPER LOW AND STRONG OMEGA
BLOCK TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO ALLOW THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TO
REINFORCE A DRIER AND CHILLIER AIRMASS OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP IT FEELING DOWN
RIGHT CHILLY FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
INTO THE WEEKEND /HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 70S/ AS LOW LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SCOOTS EASTWARD.

31

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH THE CLOSED LOW FILLING AND MOVING OUT TO SEA
WITH A H5 RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING MODERATING TEMPS BACK TO THE CWA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WE GET
INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING GULF MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW AND WILL THEREFORE BROADBRUSH POPS KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS NORTH GA WHERE BOTH MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE.

17

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FEW-SCT MVFR
POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SPEEDS OF 15-20KT AND GUSTS OF 25-30KT. WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AFTER 00Z...8-14KT OVERNIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES RETURN THIS AFTERNOON
TO NORTH/NORTHEAST GEORGIA. LOW END CHANCES DO MAKE IT IN TO THE
ATL AREA AND HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH 18-00Z FOR THE ATL AND AHN AREA
SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW ON VCSH/SHRA TO ATL.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  47  72  50 /  70  20   5   5
ATLANTA         64  50  71  53 /  40  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     57  44  66  46 /  70  20   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    63  45  71  49 /  40  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        71  51  75  53 /   5  10   0   0
GAINESVILLE     62  48  70  51 /  60  20   5   5
MACON           70  47  74  50 /  20  10   0   0
ROME            65  46  71  48 /  40  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  66  45  71  49 /  30  10   0   0
VIDALIA         72  50  74  54 /  10  10   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...DEESE



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