Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 011145
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
745 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHORT TERM. WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EACH DAY. UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO
BE WEAK THOUGH TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL BY TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS TODAY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT IN PARTS OF EAST
BASED ON HI-RES CONSENSUS. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT WITH DECENT MLCAPES PROGGED ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
OF NEAR 2000-2500 J/KG.

WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AREA-WIDE TUESDAY
AS CANNOT PINPOINT AREA OF GREATER CHANCE. THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND
ON WHERE ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES RESIDE FROM ACTIVITY THE PREVIOUS
DAY.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY TRY AND SNEAK THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD DIMINISH BY FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT THE CWFA DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE SLOWED
THIS BOUNDARYS PROGRESSION DOWN.

OVERALL...NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. POPS WILL
MAINLY REMAIN DIURNAL IN NATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST. SOME SCT TO BKN CU FIELD
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 5-6 KFT ALONG WITH LINGERING MID
LEVEL SCT AROUND 15 KFT. MAIN CHANCE FOR -TSRA IN 21-01Z PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SO HAVE PROB30 GROUP FOR MOST SITES. WINDS
GENERALLY SW UNDER 7 KTS THEN LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON AFTERNOON PRECIP.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          94  70  94  71 /  20  20  30  20
ATLANTA         91  73  91  73 /  30  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     86  65  86  65 /  30  20  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    92  70  92  69 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        95  74  94  74 /  30  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     91  71  91  72 /  30  20  30  20
MACON           94  70  94  71 /  30  20  30  20
ROME            92  69  92  69 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  91  69  92  70 /  30  20  30  20
VIDALIA         93  73  93  74 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER




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