405
FXUS64 KOHX 201139
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
639 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Upper level ridge will continue to build over Middle TN for the
start of the week and that will bring quiet and warm weather for
us. Highs will be warm once again with them reaching the mid to
upper 80s for the afternoon. CAMs do want to bring some widely
scattered popup showers over the Plateau this afternoon but
soundings show strong substance and these shower chances seem
unlikely but afternoon clouds are likely. As for fog early this
morning, with slightly drier dew points tonight it should not be
as widespread as last night but we still could see some develop in
the river valley`s and fog prone areas. Upper level ridge will be
overhead on Tuesday with more of the same, dry and warm with
highs in the 80s to near 90.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Upper level ridge will push east for the extended period and we
will start to see shower and thunderstorm chances return to the
forecast. An upper level trough and surface low will push through
the Great Lakes Wednesday and into Canada on Thursday. This will
push a cold front into the area late Wednesday into Thursday. The
front will be weakening as it pushes into Middle TN and overall
that will limit the forcing with it but we will still see showers
and thunderstorms with it. CAPE looks to be 500-1000 j/kg and 0-6
km shear will be marginal for more organized convection but with
the weaker forcing the severe threat is overall low. If we were to
see any stronger storms wind and hail would be the threats along
with heavy rain.

The front will stall out over the region on Thursday with a short
wave pushing east over us. This will keep showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast. The front will lift north as a warm front on
Saturday. We don`t see any strong forcing over the weekend but
with the unstable atmosphere shower and thunderstorm chances are
going to remain in the forecast.

Temperatures will cool back into the lower 80s Thursday and Friday
and will warm back into the mid to upper 80s over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Any lingering fog will quickly burn off this morning, leaving all
sites VFR with a light southwest wind today. Skies will be mostly
clear, with the exception of passing high clouds over the west.
Winds will go calm again after 00Z this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      88  66  89  69 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    88  66  88  69 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     81  59  82  62 /  10   0   0   0
Columbia       87  63  88  67 /  10   0   0   0
Cookeville     83  63  84  64 /  10   0   0   0
Jamestown      83  61  84  63 /  10   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   85  64  87  66 /  10   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   88  63  89  66 /  10   0   0   0
Waverly        88  66  89  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Whitehead