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000
FXUS64 KFWD 190616
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
116 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
/Saturday/

With the below discussion handling increasing wet and cool forecast
trends pretty well through tonight (Friday night), the continued
ascent through the entire day Saturday will maintain the wet and
cool conditions across the region. Numerous showers with scattered
/embedded thunderstorms will keep temperatures in check. Any
thunderstorms across North Texas will be driven more by pockets
of mid level lapse rates between 6.5-7 deg C/km well above the
cool and damp surface airmass. However, eastern Central Texas will
be not far removed from the stalling front near the I-10 corridor.
These areas will be several degrees warmer than further north and
thus yielding some weak surface-based instability. This area will
be the most primed to see a few stronger storms with small hail
and gusty winds. However, the emphasis the early weekend period
will be more on the widespread light to moderate rainfall with
locally heavier pockets with embedded thunderstorms.

The primary lifting mechanisms will be a vigorous shortwave
arriving from northeast Mexico and aided by broad, albeit modest
ageostrophic ascent under a relatively weak southern branch jet
max of around 80 kts under 100 kts. The cloudy and rainy
environment defined by gusty northeasterly winds 15 to 20 mph will
make for not an overly pleasant Saturday for those with outdoor
plans or activities. The diurnal range from lows in the 50s (North
TX) and 60s (Central TX) will be on the order of 5 degrees or
less, as afternoon highs only warm to between 55 and 60 degrees
along and north of the I-20 corridor, to between 65 and 70 degrees
across those parts of Central TX along and south of Hwy 84.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
/This Evening through Saturday Morning/

The cold front is currently located near a Bonham-Cleburne-Llano
line and will steadily continue south/southeast over the course
of this evening. Some convective development has been observed
over the last couple hours, mainly across western Central Texas
where large hail has been reported. The potential for scattered
showers and storms along the front will continue through this
evening as RAP analysis shows the front moving into an unstable
airmass with 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 7-8 degC/km lapse rates.
This parameter space will continue to promote strong to severe
storms capable of hail and damaging winds. There continues to be a
non-zero tornado threat with this activity, but low-level SRH is
generally unfavorable enough to keep this threat on the lower
side. The front will continue to move through the region,
eventually exiting completely near daybreak Friday.

The cold front will eventually stall across South Texas, leaving
our area fully entrenched within the cooler post-frontal airmass.
Cloud cover will stick around as mid- and low-level moisture will
not be completely scoured out behind the boundary. The afternoon
hours should remain relatively dry as a lack of lift should keep
most precipitation from forming until the late evening and
overnight hours. By this time, an upper level shortwave will move
into the Central Plains and spread increased forcing for ascent
overtop the cooler post-frontal airmass. Expect more widespread
showers and storms to blossom across North and Central Texas
during the early morning hours on Saturday. Sounding profiles show
steep lapse rates and enough deep layer shear/MUCAPE to promote
some stronger storms capable of small hail, but the overall severe
threat is low at this time. Instances of heavy rain are also
expected through Saturday morning as PWATs in excess of 1.5" will
be widespread across North and Central Texas.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 224 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024/
/Friday Night Through Next Thursday/

...Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected Saturday
with the potential for localized heavy rainfall and flooding
concerns...

Large scale forcing will increase across the Southern Plains this
weekend as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches from the
southwest. Height falls will start overspreading the state Friday
night, inducing stronger warm and moist advection overtop the cool
near-surface airmass left behind by today`s cold front. The
ascending air should first yield thickening cloud cover with a
broad area of showers and thunderstorms developing overnight in
response to the strengthening low level jet.

NAM forecast soundings show the boundary layer will be strongly
capped making surface-based convection unlikely Friday evening.
Moderately strong elevated instability amid the ongoing isentropic
ascent should still lead to a rapid increase in the coverage of
showers and thunderstorms after midnight Saturday. The severe hail
threat will be inhibited by the tall, skinny CAPE profiles
(weaker parcel accelerations) in the forecast soundings. However,
steep mid-level lapse rates and adequate deep layer shear should
still support some instances of at least small hail Friday night
into Saturday morning.

The shortwave trough will eject across the region on Saturday as
the front continues to slowly push towards the coast. Scattered to
numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the region with the area of greatest coverage
shifting from North Texas and the Big Country (Saturday morning
and afternoon) to Central and East Texas (Saturday evening/night).
Though a few strong storms cannot be completely ruled out,
widespread cloud cover and rain should limit heating/instability
and the overall potential for severe weather. The main concern on
Saturday will be localized heavy rainfall, especially in areas
where the soils are still saturated from heavy rainfall over the
past few weeks. Additionally, training storms and heavier
convective rain rates may lead to flood issues including minor
river flooding. Generally, 1-2.5 inches is expected though
isolated higher amounts are possible. The higher totals are
concentrated mostly near and east of the I-35 corridor.

In the wake of the departing shortwave, rain chances will end
Sunday morning from west to east as subsidence increases over the
region. After a weekend of well-below normal temperatures (highs
in the 60s, lows in the 40s/50s), temperature recovery will begin
early next week as the surface high shifts east and south winds
return amid mostly clear skies. Dry conditions should prevail
through mid-week before a potential Alberta Clipper positions
North and Central Texas beneath northwest flow ahead of a
developing western CONUS upper trough. As expected, there is
little model agreement beyond Day 7 (Wednesday) so this portions
of the forecast is likely to change over the weekend.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

Cigs fluctuating between low VFR and MVFR (mostly above 2 kft
outside of Waco Regional Airport) will be the primary challenges
through this evening.

Current cigs range between 035-060 across the D10 DFW airports
with Waco Regional airport on the cusp of high MVFR/low VFR at
030. Following primarily the HRRR/CONSSHORT and LAMP guidance
indicates the cooling boundary through daybreak will result in
high MVFR above 020 at D10 airports with more pessimistic low
MVFR cigs at Waco where the frontal inversion is expected to be
more shallow. The MVFR cigs will prevail into early afternoon,
before brief pockets of sunshine aid in warming surface
temperatures and allow cigs to return to low VFR. MVFR cigs do
return after nightfall this evening with the boundary layer
cooling once again and precipitation eventually increasing with an
approaching disturbance by/after midnight Saturday.

Northerly winds currently 15-20 kts will diminish to 10 kts or
less while veering northeasterly late in the day and this evening.


05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    58  60  50  64  50 /  80  90  90   5   0
Waco                62  67  51  62  48 /  50  90 100   5   0
Paris               54  57  48  63  44 /  80  90  80  10   0
Denton              56  59  47  64  46 /  90 100  90   5   0
McKinney            57  59  48  64  47 /  80 100  90  10   0
Dallas              57  61  51  64  49 /  80  90  90  10   0
Terrell             58  61  49  63  46 /  80  90 100  10   0
Corsicana           61  65  51  64  49 /  60  90 100  10   0
Temple              62  71  51  63  49 /  40  80 100   5   0
Mineral Wells       57  60  47  63  46 /  90 100  90   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$