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000
FXUS64 KMEG 260927
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
427 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 427 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Warm, breezy and humid conditions will spread into the Midsouth
today, behind a warm frontal passage. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon over
eastern Arkansas, the Missouri bootheel and northwest Tennessee.
These conditions will continue through Sunday.

Rain chances will increase over all of the Midsouth Sunday night
and Monday, as an upper level trough and Pacific cold front lift
through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 427 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A deep longwave trough will prevail over the western half of the
CONUS through Sunday. During this period, two constituent closed
lows will lift from the 4-corners region to the upper Midwest.
Over the Midsouth, little change in upper level heights is
expected, as a 584dam 500mb ridge holds strong, centered over the
Southeast. Deep layer sheer and convective inhibition will be
marginally supportive of scattered showers and thunderstorms
moving into eastern AR, the MO bootheel and northwest TN.

A progressive southern branch trough will have greater success
impinging on the Southeast upper level ridge Sunday night. A weak
cold front/convectively-reinforced boundary will accompany
midlevel height falls over the Midsouth Sunday night. At this
time, it appears that marginal instability (effective CAPE less
than 500 J/kg) will limit severe thunderstorm chances Sunday night
and Monday. A narrow plume of prefrontal moisture (PWAT near 1.8
inches) will support locally heavy rainfall. But the progressive
nature of the front and marginal instability should limit the
threat of widespread flooding.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through midweek,
as the frontal boundary washes out under zonal flow aloft. Medium
range models depict several embedded shortwaves in the zonal flow
through Wednesday. With daytime heating and PWAT near 1.5 inches,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will possible through midweek.

A northern branch closed low will move through the Great Lakes
Thursday into Friday. To the south of this feature, height falls
and a surface cold front will extend through much of the MS River
Valley. If medium range model solutions hold, shower and thunderstorm
chances will increase over the Midsouth by Thursday.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SHRAs associated with an elevated warm front and a mid level
shortwave will continue to lift northeast. Light east winds will
continue overnight shifting to the south early Friday as the
surface warm front lifts north. Gusty south winds will prevail for
most of Friday along with VFR conds. SHRAs and TSRAs are expected
to develop across AR Friday afternoon and push into the Mid-South
late in the day into the evening. Mentioned VCTS at JBR and MEM
during the evening. Introduced LLWS at JBR, MEM and MKL Friday
evening through the overnight as low level jet strengthens across
the region.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...SJM