254
FXUS63 KOAX 131126
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
626 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms move east out of the region today with
  another round forecast for Wednesday- Thursday. Nothing looks
  particularly severe at this time.

- Seasonal daytime temperatures are expected through much of
  next week, though temperatures approach 80 next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

The radar is lit up with scattered showers spinning cyclonically with
the spin of the stacked low over centered over Norfolk, NE. MRMS
rainfall estimates range from zero up along the SD state line to
over 2" along parts of the NE/IA state line. A perusal of
personal weather stations at 230 AM reveals numerous 1" reports
around the Omaha metro. Eppley is at 0.98". Lincoln is closer
to 0.3".

Showers will end from west to east over the course of the day
with mostly dry conditions expected by this afternoon in
southwest Iowa where showers will be most reluctant to end.

New to the forecast is the introduction of some "haze" to the
forecast for today. It`s based on the HRRR/RAP near surface
smoke forecast. Directly ingested it to produce some haze
working north to south across eastern Nebraska this afternoon
behind the sagging cold front slipping out of the Dakotas. The
smoke originated in BC and Alberta in western Canada. Don`t
believe it will be particularly dense and it should not limit
visibility, but those sensitive to air quality reductions from
particulates should take note and avoid unnecessary time
outdoors.

.TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...

A transitive ridge helps flip the script on the winds, turning
them from the northeast to coming out of the southeast by
Tuesday afternoon. They`ll remain slow and negligible. Expect
mid to upper 70s for afternoon high temps.

Another round of spring showers pushes in from the west late on
Tuesday night with a small slice of a warm sector that will push
through the CWA. Even with Wednesday`s peak heating, instability
is maximized along a ribbon of 1000 J/kg CAPE accompanied by
meager shear. Forecast soundings do not look conducive to much
more than some lightning and thunder once again. QPF values max
out at 0.35" with less expected north of I-80.

.LATE INTO THE WEEK...

Have maintained NBM`s isolated PoPs as-is for Friday and into
the weekend with significant model variability producing a
blurred precip outlook. Expect PoPs to come into focus for
certain time frames as the weekend approaches. General ridging
should help increase heights and push afternoon high
temperatures into the low 80s for the weekend. Enjoy the spring
weather while it lasts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Primarily MVFR conditions and scattered will impact KLNK/KOMA
this morning, before transitioning back to VFR this afternoon.
There could even be an hour or two of IFR at KOMA at TAF
issuance. Rain chances finally end at KLNK/KOMA by 18-20z. We
previously thought winds might gust a little bit this afternoon,
but backed off the gusts with the new forecast, but could still
northeasterly winds increase to 10-12 knots 20-24z. There could
be also be some haze/smoke this afternoon after the rain ends
at KOMA, but don`t think it would lead to a visibility
restriction.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...DeWald