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000
FXUS63 KOAX 171741
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1241 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures today with a marginal risk for severe
  storms overnight tonight for southeast Nebraska. Primary
  threats will be large hail and damaging winds.

- Cooler temperatures continue through the weekend, with morning
  lows dropping below freezing in many areas.

- Another chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday, then
  warming temperatures next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Low clouds are hanging around along and north of the Platte and
Missouri Rivers. Really only areas around Lincoln and Beatrice
westward are fairly clear this morning. The strong low pressure
system is off to our east and will continue it`s exit off to the
east. Low clouds should clear by this afternoon with partly
cloudy skies expected this afternoon. Mild temperatures are in
store for today with highs in the 60s and 70s, but these will
likely be the warmest temperatures we see for a while, with a
cooldown expected going into tomorrow that will stay around
through the weekend into next week.

Today, we`re situated between two systems, with a shortwave
that`s going to develop another strong low pressure system to
our south over Oklahoma tonight into Thursday. As this system
develops out over northeastern New Mexico today, we see a band
of frontogenesis start to develop precipitation out over west-
central Nebraska this afternoon which will spread eastward
through this evening. Another feature to watch more closely will
be the clash of frontal boundaries as a cold front from another
surface low over Saskatchewan collides with the developing warm
front surging north with the surface low. There should be plenty
of instability and the colliding frontal boundaries will
provide enough shear for strong to severe storms to develop to
our south across northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.
SPC encapsulates this threat with a Slight Risk for severe
storms for Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but includes
southeast Nebraska in a marginal risk as well. This is likely
due to the marginal risk for large hail or gravity waves to
become entrapped in the stable layer, allowing a damaging wind
gust or two to reach the ground.

Showers and thunderstorms should wrap up by Thursday
afternoon, leaving behind the aforementioned cooler air mass in
place that will linger through the weekend. Daytime highs on
Thursday will only be in the 50s, and overnight lows Thursday
night into Friday morning will drop down into the upper 20s to
mid 30s. Temperatures will hover in this same range through the
weekend, so people with plants already sprouting that are
sensitive to cold temperatures will need to take protective
actions this weekend. It`s looking pretty likely we`ll see
overnight lows in many spots at or below freezing Friday
morning, Saturday morning, and Sunday morning.

Zonal flow keeps weather dry through the weekend with a broad
upper-level trough to our north locking the cooler air mass in
place. This trough pattern doesn`t get disrupted until Monday
when an arctic ridge finally dislodges it and pushes it off to
the east. This allows another trough to come down and bring a
front across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa during the day
on Monday. This should be quick-hitting and won`t bring a ton of
rain. We will see building upper-level heights behind this
front, though, which will help lead to a warming trend in
temperatures toward midweek. An active pattern setting up will
likely mean several modest chances for precipitation as well at
least this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR conditions are in place at all three terminals, with
northwesterly winds gusting as strong as 25 kts expected to drop
the gusts by 19 or 20z in favor of much lighter winds at 10 kts
or less. Overnight, light rain is expected to approach from the
west after 05z, while an arm of showers and storms develops
and moves northward from far southeast Nebraska. KOFK most
likely will not see any lightning at all while KOMA and KLNK
have a 2 hour period of lightning chances before it transitions
to all rainfall. During the rain/storms, we`ll go from VFR to
MVFR ceilings and see increasing winds gusting to 20-25 kts.
MVFR conditions should stick around after storms exit, but look
like they`ll clear by 18z tomorrow.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Petersen