Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 242355
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
455 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Rain/snow showers will favor western and northern NM tonight into
Wed. IFR/MVFR cigs/mtn top obscur likely to follow showers. MVFR
cigs could also develop near KTCC because of an incoming back
door cold front overnight into Wed morning. Meanwhile, winds will
taper down after sunset remaining breezy across higher terrain
areas.

32


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold will be the main weather story tonight through Saturday as
reinforcing shots of cold air slide in from the northwest and
north. A few snow showers will continue tonight and Wednesday
across the northern mountains with dry and mostly sunny conditions
elsewhere. High temperatures Wednesday through Saturday will run
10 to 20 degrees below average for late January. A slow warm up
is expected Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Closed upper low centered across eastern WY this afternoon with
an associated upper level trough extending southwestward into
southern CA. Models agree that the closed low will eject
northeastward across the central plains tonight and Wednesday as
the parent trough moves over NM. As a result, orographic snow/graupel
showers will continue across mainly the northern mountains tonight
into Wednesday afternoon. West winds will gradually decrease this
evening but remain moderate in the higher terrain.

Cold condtions will be the rule Wednesday through Saturday with
continuous CAA from the northwest and north. Upper trough dropping
down from the north on Thursday night and Friday may spawn a light
snow shower or two across the northern mountains. Latest guidance
suggesting Thursday night/Friday morning will be the coldest
night/morning and Friday the coldest day. Temperatures will range
from 10 to as much as 20 degrees below average for late January.

Warm up gets under way Sunday, especially east. Warming trend
continues into early next week as a ridge of high pressure
across the west coast begins to fold over. Stronger than average
Aleutian low returns later next week with a good possibility of
the storm track returning to the west coast and southwest U.S.
sometime during the first week of February.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wetting precipitation spread across western and northern New Mexico
overnight and continued into this morning before turning more
showery and non-wetting. Strong winds developed early and continue
this afternoon, with the strongest gusts noted east of the Central
Mountain Chain. Cold air advection is underway and will send
temperatures below to well below normal through the end of the work
week and into the weekend, thanks in part to a second trough which
will push a reinforcing cold airmass through early Friday. Vent
rates will be good to excellent tomorrow, but will trend down
thereafter and generally be poor areawide this weekend as a cold
airmass remains at the surface and pressure heights increase aloft.

12z medium range model solutions differ on the amplification of a
ridge moving east across the Intermountain West early next week,
which is leading to a lower confidence forecast in terms of
temperatures, winds and vent rates. If the 12z ECMWF works-out, then
vent rates will continue to be poor Monday and Tuesday. Either way,
temperatures are forecast to return to normal by Tuesday.

11


&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ521>525-529>538.

High Wind Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for the following
zones... NMZ526-539-540.

&&

$$



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