Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 132334 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
534 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CONDITIONS...AND EVEN SHORT-LIVED IFR LIKELY
WITH STORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. TERMINALS
MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED ARE KSAF...KLVS AND KTCC.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING TONIGHT. THE PATTERN
CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY...SO STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DURING MAINLY THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. THURSDAY MAY BE THE COOLER DAY OF THIS WEEK OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF A FINAL SURFACE FRONT. THEREAFTER...A
TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BUSIER DAY TODAY FOR STORMS AS ANTICIPATED. APPEARS THERE IS MORE
THAN ONE SURFACE BOUNDARY SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...ONE
STRETCHED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR SANTA ROSA TO NEAR RANCHVALE WHERE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ACTIVE AND QUASI-STATIONARY...AND A SECOND ALONG
THE FAR NE NM BORDER FROM RATON TOWARDS SENECA...WHERE CONVECTION IS
ALSO STARTING TO FIRE. THE FIRST BOUNDARY IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN
MODELS PROGNOSTICATED...AND ENDED UP SPREADING HIGHER POPS FARTHER
SOUTH FOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE GENERAL CELL MOTION SUGGESTS UPPER
HIGH CIRCULATION HAS SET UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND EXISTING
CONVECTION HAS CREATED A BOUNDARY-FEST FOR FUTURE STORMS TO FEAST ON
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS ALSO VERY
EFFICIENT...PUTTING DOWN SOME DECENT AND RAPID RAINFALL OUTSIDE OF
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. SO BE ALERT FOR RAPID RISES OF WATER IN
USUALLY DRY ARROYOS AND OVER LOW WATER CROSSINGS. IN ANY EVENT...THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT...CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO RECONFIGURE AT THIS TIME.

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO POP/WX/TEMPERATURE GRIDS BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT. OVERALL TRENDS APPEARED ON TRACK WITH POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CHANGES. THURSDAY STILL
APPEARS THE COOLER DAY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS...IN THE WAKE OF WHAT
MAY BE THE LAST FRONT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A TREND TO DRIER
AND WARMER WEATHER BY AND OVER THE COMING WEEKEND AS THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WEAKENS AND RETREATS...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
EMBRACE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. 12Z GFS DROVE THE
HIGH CENTER TO OUR NORTH AND STRENGTHENED IT TO A DESICCATING 602
DAM. ECMWF SOMEWHAT SIMILAR...SO WENT AHEAD AND TRIMMED POPS DOWN
FOR THE WEEKEND...AS DEWPOINTS PLUNGE...AND BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. AS USUAL...MOUNTAIN AREAS HAVE BEEN FAVORED WITH
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT...WITH MOST STORMS DRIFTING OFF TOWARD THE WEST
OR SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE FORMING ALONG ONE STALLED
BOUNDARY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM...AND ANOTHER BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR NE
NM. HIGH PWATS HAVE BEEN NOTED ON THE AMA SOUNDING THIS
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BE THE SAME TYPE OF ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS...AND THIS BETTER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS...PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL BE
HIGH. THIS COMBINED WITH SLOW STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN THIS EVE.

AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD REMAINS ON TAP THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE EAST
MIDDAY MONDAY. THUS...NORTHEAST NM WILL AGAIN BE FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE
FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED AND PUSHED WESTWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. EAST WINDS WILL PROBABLY WEAK TO
MODERATE...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE REPLENISHED...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A VERY ACTIVE TUESDAY.

IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...WETTING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE ON TUESDAY. STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY...THUS STORMS
WILL MOVE MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH...RATHER THAN WEST OR SOUTHWEST
WHICH HAS BEEN THE PREVALENT DIRECTION LATELY. HOWEVER...IT WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...AND WILL KEEP FLOODING A POSSIBILITY.

A DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CLIP NE NM WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AN ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
DOWN THE PLAINS. THIS MAY BE THE STRONGEST OF ALL THE BACK DOOR
FRONTS THIS WEEK. THE LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...COMBINED WITH THE LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
YIELD ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE DAY AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. WITH DECENT NW FLOW IN PLACE...DESPITE THE STRONGER
NATURE OF THE FRONT...IT WILL BE HARD FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH MUCH
PAST THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN OR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND POINTS EASTWARD WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THURSDAY...BUT WESTERN AREAS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THAT THIS DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE
FURTHER AND FURTHER INTO THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. HAINES INDICES OF 5 AND 6 WILL ARRIVE ACROSS
THE NW ON THURSDAY...SPREAD A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ON FRIDAY...AND BY
SATURDAY...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE HAINES INDICES OF 5. THERE WILL
BE SOME MOISTURE RECYCLING FRIDAY THRU THE WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL
STORM COVERAGE WILL TREND DOWN. THERE MAY BE ONLY ISOLATED STORM
ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY. HUMIDITIES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DROP AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

AFTER SOME POOR VENTILATION ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY...VENTILATION IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY IN THESE AREAS...BUT MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM WILL SEE POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION. VENTILATION SHOULD
IMPROVE ALL AREAS ON TUESDAY AND MORESO ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL DROP
BACK DOWN ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-527>532.

&&

$$

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