Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 011759 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1159 AM MDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions will occur at the terminal sites during the next 24
hrs. There is a slight possibility of some low cigs sneaking up
from the south impacting far SE areas late tonight. Will be
monitoring that trend in low level moistening. Otherwise...a few
spot SH/TS will impact the SW and SC mtns this aft to early eve.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...309 AM MDT SAT OCT 1 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak ridge of high pressure will be over NM for much of this
weekend providing drier conditions. The ridge will shift east
later Sunday as a potent storm moves onto the OR or northern CA
coast. The storm will dive into northern NV Sunday night, then
turn quickly northeast Monday. A surface cold front will sweep
across the state Monday bringing strong wind gusts, as well as
cooler temperatures behind the front, and some showers. Dry and
more tranquil Tuesday through Thursday with chilly morning lows
and comfortable afternoon highs. Moisture seeping north next
Friday into the weekend could produce some showers, starting
Friday in the southwest then spreading north and east Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Drier air at mid and upper levels has overspread NM. Low level
moisture is hanging on though, and should be enough to produce
isolated showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon. Highs
will be a little warmer today, mostly above normal.

The ridge of high pressure over us now will begin to shift east
Sunday in response to a potent upper level storm. Increasing
southwest flow aloft will mix down to the surface, producing
some light to moderate breezes, enough to scour out most of
the low level moisture. Thus Sunday will be dry and a bit milder
with highs above normal for early October.

As the storm dives into NV Sunday night and lifts northeast
Monday, a strong pressure gradient aloft will transfer to the
surface, producing breezy to windy conditions with some strong
wind gusts Monday. The surface cold front associated with the
upper level storm will sweep across NM Monday, with noticeably
cooler air behind it. Enough moisture should get pulled north
ahead of the front, generating some showers and storms Sunday
night through Monday evening. Temperatures will drop behind the
front Monday night and Tuesday. Some freeze warnings may be
needed Monday night and Tuesday night. Tuesday will be dry with
less wind, although still breezy in parts of the east. Highs will
be near to below normal.

Wednesday and Thursday will be dry and more tranquil with a
warming trend. The next trough of low pressure will reach NM by
next weekend. Moisture drawn up ahead of it will supply us with
some showers starting Friday in the upper Gila region of the
southwest mountains, then spreading east and north Friday night
and Saturday. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
There could be a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
mountains today especially north and west, but they should be
very light as a ridge of high pressure builds overhead and drier
air funnels into the area.

An upper level low pressure system will dig into the Great Basin
Sunday, then eject northeastward across the northern Rockies Monday
and Monday night. SW winds aloft will strengthen over NM starting
Sunday and especially Monday, when breezy to windy conditions are
expected most places. Gusts from 35 to 45 mph will be common Monday
afternoon, with gusts to 50 mph possible across western and northern
areas. A Pacific cold front will cross with a westerly wind shift
late Monday and Monday night. After a drier day Sunday, humidities
will trend wetter Monday as the upper low draws a light to moderate
tap of subtropical moisture north northeastward over New Mexico.
There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over
central and western areas Monday, before showers spread to eastern
areas Monday night. Central, southwest and far east central areas
look favored for up to 0.20 of an inch of precipitation. Drier air
pushing into western areas in the afternoon should result in locally
critical fire weather conditions across parts of the northwest
plateau, but minimum humidities should remain above critical
thresholds elsewhere across the fire weather forecast area.

Winds will weaken Tuesday and Wednesday, but will remain gusty as a
weaker secondary upper trough crosses the northern and central
Rockies steering much drier air over NM from the west. High
temperatures will trend downward Monday and Tuesday, then remain
near and below normal on Wednesday before trending upward again
central and west during the latter half of the work week. Portions
of the northwest plateau and west central mountains could experience
their first freeze of the season Tuesday morning, then possibly
parts of the far northeast highlands Wednesday morning. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
50


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