Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 221123
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
423 AM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Large upper level high pressure over northwest MX/southern CA will
expand to the east today through Thursday. Winds beneath the
strengthening high pressure area will be generally less than 12
knots. Slightly higher winds aloft could produce a few wind gusts to
near 20 knots for a few hours this afternoon in northwest NM,
including at KFMN. High clouds this morning will gradually move to
the east this afternoon. VFR conditions are expected through Thursday
morning.

28

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MST Wed Nov 22 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong ridge of high pressure aloft will keep the majority of
northern and central New Mexico dry through the Thanksgiving holiday
weekend and possibly for the rest of November. A few near record to
record highs are possible mainly Thanksgiving Day and Friday before
another cold front impacts the region Friday night and Saturday.
Afternoon westerly breezes will be noticable along the central
mountain chain Friday. Winds will increase early next week as an
upper disturbance and vigorous cold front cross northern and eastern
New Mexico. While a few showers are possible along the central
mountain chain Tuesday, no widespread or significant precipitation
is expected at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Not much has changed in the short to intermediate term. Temperatures
over the north should recover today while the south central and
southeast are cooler. Warmer overall on Thanksgiving Day and again
for most areas on Friday. Breezy to windy conditions will impact the
central mountain chain and adjacent highlands Friday as the surface
low deepens over the eastern plains. A cold front is still scheduled
to slide into northern and eastern New Mexico Friday night,
resulting in about 2 to 12 degrees of cooling over the eastern
plains on Saturday. Dry weather expected through the weekend.
Temperatures Sunday to rebound to approximately 10-20 degrees above
average.

Next Monday and Tuesday will see an increase in westerly winds as a
system moves through the Great Basin Monday and tracks over northern
and eastern New Mexico Tuesday. A vigorous cold front will accompany
the system. However, highs Tuesday will remain a few degrees above
average, although cooler than their lofty values Monday. The GFS
cranks out a few hundredths of an inch of precipitation along the
Sangre de Cristo mountains on Tuesday, and the ECMWF highlights the
same area but with slightly more precipitation. The ridge/zonal flow
recover in time to usher in the start of December. Toward 240 hrs,
the ECMWF develops a closed low off SoCal, which, surprise, pumps up
a short wave ridge over New Mexico, but the GFS suggests zonal flow
off/into the west coast over the southern Rockies. Despite the
difference, the end result for northern and central New Mexico is
continued dry weather through the end of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A strong upper level high centered over northern Baja California
this morning will expand slowly eastward today through Thursday.
This will keep the region in a light flow aloft from the north with
a weak surface gradient due to surface high pressure extending from
the central Rockies southward across NM. This weather pattern will
result in light, terrain-driven winds today through Thursday and a
warming trend. High temperatures Thursday will be 8 to 18 degrees
above normal and may reach near record values for the date. Light
winds in the lower atmosphere will produce poor to fair ventilation
both Wednesday and Thursday.

The upper high will weaken and shift to the south Friday, as a weak
upper level disturbance moves from central UT to southeastern CO.
This will cause the upper level wind flow to back to the west
northwest and increase winds speeds aloft. A weak surface low will
develop Friday and extend from northeast NM into West TX. Stronger
winds aloft will reach the surface Friday afternoon with sustained
west northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph across the eastern plains. The
downsloping winds east of the central mountains will cause moderate
low-level drying across the eastern plains with relative humidity
falling into the teens during the afternoon hours. Western FWZ108
may see a couple of hours of near critical fire weather conditions
early Friday afternoon in southern Guadalupe County and western De
Baca County. Ventilation will improve to fair to good across a large
portion of central and northern NM, but protected valleys will
likely retain poor ventilation. With the warm downsloping flow
Friday, the eastern plains will be unseasonably warm for late
November.

A weak backdoor cold front will move into eastern NM Friday night
and then stall in the eastern plains Saturday. Highs across the
eastern plains will fall around 10 degrees Saturday, but will still
be 8 to 13 degrees above normal. High temperatures from the eastern
foothills of the central mountains to western NM will be 10 to 20
degrees above normal. Ventilation Saturday will be poor area wide.
The upper level ridge of high pressure will move eastward Sunday and
cross NM during the afternoon. This will bring warming to the
eastern plains and the entire region will be 10 to 20 degrees above
normal. Light winds beneath the ridge will produce poor ventilation
Sunday.

A upper level trough will move southeastward into the Great Basin
Monday, while a strong surface low pressure system will form in
eastern CO and the western plains of KS and NE. The combination of
these systems will increase the surface gradient and winds aloft
across NM. Breezy to locally windy conditions are expected Monday
afternoon with southwest winds gusting to near 35 mph in the eastern
plains and western highlands and to near 45 mph in the higher
elevations of the central and western mountains. Critical fire
weather conditions will be possible in the eastern plains,
especially in the northeastern plains, where relative humidity will
fall into the mid to upper teens. Ventilation will improve to fair
to good across most of the region, except in the middle and lower
Rio Grande Valley and the southeast plains. High temperatures Monday
will remain 10 to 20 degrees above normal. A strong Pacific cold
front will cross NM on Tuesday morning, followed by a backdoor cold
front Tuesday afternoon and evening, as the base of the upper level
trough moves across northern NM. Limited moisture with this system
will likely stay north of the region, though  a few showers are
possible in the northern mountains. Temperatures Tuesday will cool
back to near normal and possible slightly below normal, especially
in the north.

28

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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