Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 282342
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
642 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.AVIATION...
A cold front continues to slide south across the Panhandles,
winds have shifted out of the north and increased  15 to 25kts
with slightly higher gusts. Ceilings will continue to lower
behind the cold front but should remain VFR/MVFR until early
Saturday morning. We expect to see a transition from liquid to
frozen precip at KDHT and KGUY around 13Z Saturday. KAMA will lag
behind the other terminals and possibly won`t make the transition
until after 18Z Saturday. Once the precip change occurs we will
likely see ceilings continue to worsen into IFR or possible LIFR
conditions. Confidence in timing is not high enough to add snow
to the prevailing forecast, so will continue with rain until
future TAF issuances.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 443 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Showers developing this afternoon across much of the Panhandles as
a vigorous upper low near the Four Corners region digs south and
east across central and eastern New Mexico tonight through
Saturday. The upper low is then forecast to track northeast across
the central Texas Panhandle and northeastern portions of the
forecast area Saturday night and Sunday morning. The upper low
will then lift north and east across Kansas and Midwestern states
Sunday night and Monday. Convection will continue this evening and
increase tonight across the Panhandles as a secondary surge of
much colder air pushes south into the forecast area tonight and
early Saturday.

Rain should change to or mix with snow across the northwestern
portions of the forecast area late tonight and early Saturday,
with the wintry precipitation shifting east and south across the
northwest half or two-thirds of the Panhandles by Saturday
evening. Snow will prevail across the northwest half or two-thirds
of the forecast area Saturday night through Sunday morning. As
the upper low tracks northeast away from the Panhandles Sunday
morning, wrap around wintry precipitation should linger over much
of the northwest half of the Panhandles through 18Z or 21Z Sunday.
Upgraded the northwest Texas Panhandle to Winter Storm Warning and
expanded the Winter Storm Watch east and southward to roughly a
Beaver to Amarillo and Canyon line. Extended the Winter Storm
Watch and Warning until 00Z Monday as lingering wintry
precipitation expected with wrap around the departing upper low.
Could see as much as a foot of snow in the higher elevations of
the western Oklahoma or extreme northwestern Texas Panhandles in
and around the Kenton, Black Mesa Park and Texline areas.

Temperatures early next week will be tricky as snow cover/snow
pack will hold down temps despite the warmer forecast model
guidance numbers. Clearing conditions early next week as drier
northwesterly flow aloft expected. Northern stream shortwave
trough forecast around the middle of next week bringing chances
for convection mainly across the northern and eastern portions of
the Panhandles. Progressive upper trough will allow for precip to
end Wednesday night with drier and moderating temps by the end of
next week.

Schneider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                38  42  31  50  34 /  80  70  60  40   0
Beaver OK                  38  39  32  44  33 /  90  80  70  60  10
Boise City OK              30  34  27  42  31 / 100  90  70  40   0
Borger TX                  39  43  33  50  36 /  90  80  60  40   0
Boys Ranch TX              38  41  31  53  33 /  90  70  60  30   0
Canyon TX                  40  43  32  52  34 /  80  70  50  30   0
Clarendon TX               43  48  33  53  38 /  70  50  50  30   0
Dalhart TX                 34  38  29  50  32 /  90  80  60  30   0
Guymon OK                  35  36  30  44  33 / 100  90  70  50   5
Hereford TX                40  42  31  54  34 /  70  70  50  30   0
Lipscomb TX                41  44  35  46  36 /  90  70  60  50   5
Pampa TX                   39  43  32  47  36 /  80  70  60  40   5
Shamrock TX                45  50  36  51  39 /  70  60  60  30   0
Wellington TX              48  53  37  55  40 /  70  50  50  20   0

&&


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening
     for the following zones: Deaf Smith...Hansford...
     Hutchinson...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Potter...
     Randall...Sherman.

     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for
     the following zones: Dallam...Hartley.

OK...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening
     for the following zones: Beaver.

     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for
     the following zones: Cimarron...Texas.


&&

$$

89/11



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