Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 310005 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
705 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.AVIATION...
Much above moisture and a weak upper system nearby will continue to
support periods of mostly showers in the region and possibly a few
thunderstorms if enough heating occurs. High moisture will also
provide high chances for MVFR and then IFR conditions especially for
AMA again overnight. Think most of the shra activity will hold off
until after sunrise as area has been worked over quite a bit today,
but can`t totally rule out showers re-developing overnight. Timing is
very problematic for this type of disorganized activity, but shra
will be possible much of the day on Wed with potential for MVFR with
these. Again highest probability of precip and assoc low clouds will
be at AMA and GUY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A south to southwest flow aloft between an upper low over Colorado
and an upper ridge over the southeast U.S. This flow continues to
bring rich subtropical moisture across the panhandles. Therefore,
showers and thunderstorms will continue to be widespread over
the region.

The subtropical moisture will finally get suppressed to the south of
the panhandles by Friday as an upper level high builds southward
over the southern plains. However, shower and thunderstorm chances
will continue through the rest of this forecast as the upper high
shifts off to the southeast of the panhandles and a stronger
southwest flow aloft moves over the area.  Shower and thunderstorm
coverage will not be as great beyond Thursday given the drier
atmosphere.

High temperatures will be below normal through Friday given the
extra cloud cover and rain. Temperatures will rebound to around
normal or a little above for the weekend and for Labor Day. South to
Southwest winds will also increase into the 15 to 25 mph range for
the weekend as upper heights fall over the Rockies in association
with the large upper level low moving into the northwest U.S.

HYDROLOGY...
Will continue the Flood Watch for the eastern half of the Texas
Panhandle and the central and eastern Oklahoma Panhandle. These
areas will continue to be under the gun for heavy rain producing
thunderstorms through Wednesday. Some of the creeks and rivers,
especially in the southeast Texas Panhandle, have seen some rises.
In fact, the Prairie Dog Town Fork of the Red River near Wayside has
risen over a half of foot in just 15 minutes. The river should stay
below flood stage with the rain that has already fallen, but if more
heavy rain develops near the gage site in south central Armstrong
county it could push the river to around flood stage.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for the following zones:
     Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Donley...Gray...
     Hansford...Hemphill...Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Ochiltree...
     Roberts...Wheeler.

OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for the following zones:
     Beaver...Texas.


&&

$$

88/88



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