Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 261110
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
510 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE A SHIFT IN WINDS FROM THE WEST TO MORE
NORTHERLY BETWEEN 14-16Z TODAY. WINDS WILL RANGE IN THE 10-15KT RANGE
THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO A WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 144 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY WEEK WARMTH IS EXPECTED...THOUGH IT WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT BY
SFC MOISTURE OVER AREAS THAT EITHER CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SNOWPACK
OR ARE JUST FINALLY FINISHING MELTING IT. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS (10-15G20 MPH DURING AFTERNOONS) ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE BREEZIEST PERIOD LIKELY BEING TUE NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WED NIGHT PUTTING AN END TO THE WARMTH.

THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT LIKELY DRY. BEGINNING THU NIGHT...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WEAK MID/UPR DIFFLUENCE AND PERIODIC LOW LVL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL COUPLE WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO
PROVIDE OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE PRECIP.
MED RANGE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO CARRY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO
DIFFERENCES REGARDING EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF A QUASI-CUT OFF SW
CONUS UPR LOW AND STRENGTH/TIMING OF SFC COLD AIR INTRUSIONS. HAVE
KEPT GOING FORECAST IDEA OF INITIALLY RAIN FRI FOLLOWED BY A RAIN OR
SNOW PERIOD FRI NIGHT-SAT...FOLLOWED BY PREDOMINATELY SNOW CHANCES
SAT NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY IS QUITE HIGH WRT TO PTYPE FRI AFTERNOON - SAT
AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER LOW LVL SOLUTION THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY
THE GFS/GEM COULD MEAN ACCUMULATING SNOWS. THE ECMWF HAD BEEN SHOWING
A WARMER LOW LVL SOLUTION WHICH WOULD MEAN MOSTLY RAIN UNTIL SAT
AFTERNOON, BUT THE 00Z RUN HAS TRENDED COLDER, SO THE LATE FRI
AFTERNOON-SAT AFTERNOON BEARS CLOSE WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE TX PANHANDLE...THOUGH ALL
AREAS STAND A CHANCE AT SEEING SOMETHING BETWEEN FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BUT AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD REMAINS FAIRLY LOW.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/09





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