Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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248
FXUS64 KAMA 081138
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
538 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT
WHILE A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WITH NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
TODAY...THEN BACKING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST BY 00Z TUESDAY
AND DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE
TIGHTEST. 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE EAST. SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE FOUND FURTHER
TO THE WEST. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.

A RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S.
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST WILL START TO BREAK DOWN
SOME BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE MEAN RIDGE. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED...SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
FORECAST...WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES...BUT READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TURPIN OKLAHOMA TO
CLARENDON TEXAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 15 TO
20 PERCENT RANGE IN THIS AREA. THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES TODAY. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IF
WINDS CAN INCREASE ENOUGH. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE
BELOW 20 PERCENT...BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL
BE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/15



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