Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 270919
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
419 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRING MILD
WEATHER TO THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
3 AM UPDATE...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST IS
KEEPING THE CWA DRY. A DEEP SW FLOW IS BRINGING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALOFT. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN AND WILL STAY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A CONTINUED NW LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS CAUSED
THE STRATUS DECK OVER NE NY TO MOVE BACK SOUTH INTO THE EXTREME
NORTH. AFTER A LITTLE MORE PROGRESS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER
EARLY THIS MORNING IT WILL RETREAT NORTH AROUND SUNRISE AND OUT
BY NOON. WITH HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING AND NO SNOW ON THE GROUND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S AND
MAYBE 50 AT PEO ELM SYR AVP. NOT CLOSE TO A RECORD FOR THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

THE ONLY EXCITEMENT THIS WEEK WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN WITH A POSSIBLE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AT THE END. PROBABLY THE COLD AIR WILL BE TOO
LATE FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. COLD ENOUGH STARTING AROUND 10Z IN
NY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON ALL MODELS UNDER HALF AN INCH AND MOST
LIKELY WILL COME IN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH ALL BUT THE NE WHICH
WILL BE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS WILL HAVE NO AFFECT ON
THE RIVERS WHICH ARE RUNNING HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED FRONT MAKING A PUSH BACK NORTH. THE
NAM HAS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA MON NGT BUT IT IS THE OUTLIER.

THE OTHER QUESTION IS IF ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL FORM ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THIS IN THE
USUAL AREAS OF CENTRAL NY. TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE MARGINAL
BUT LL FLOW IS 300 WITH LITTLE SHEAR. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW WITH
INVERSION SETTING UP AROUND 5K FT AGAIN. THE FLOW SHIFTS CLOSE TO
NORTH MON NGT BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND SHUTTING THE WEAK LES OFF.
MODELS SHOWING ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS AT MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM SAT UPDATE... ONLY MINOR CHGS WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SET
OF GRIDS FOR THE EXTENDED PD.

EC/GFS CONSENSUS...ALG WITH WPC...REMAIN CONSISTENT FROM EARLIER
PROGS...IN SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED ERN PACIFIC TO ALASKA UPR
RIDGE AXIS...DEEP WRN CONUS TROUGH...THEN DOWNSTREAM A FLAT UPR RIDGE
OVER THE SERN CONUS...AND A PERSISTENT VORTEX OVER SERN CANADA.
THE RESULTANT PATN FOR NY/PA SHOULD FEATURE BROADLY CONFLUENT WRLY TO
SWLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH MAINLY NRN STREAM INFLUENCES FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE ABV DESCRIBED CONFIGURATION OF SYSTEMS SHOULD ALLOW MORE
SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASSES TO SEEP INTO THE NERN STATES NEXT
WEEK...WITH DAILY HIGHS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE
FOR LATE DEC-EARLY JAN (20S TO LWR 30S). ALTHOUGH A LAKE RESPONSE
IS ANTICIPATED OVER A SVRL DAY STRETCH NEXT WEEK...WRLY TO OCNLY
SWLY FLOW IN THE LWR LVLS SHOULD DIRECT MUCH OF THE LES INTO THE
SRN TUG HILL RGN...AND EVEN PTS FARTHER N AT TIMES. QUESTIONABLE
AND HIGHLY VRBL MOISTURE DEPTHS OVER TIME MAY ALSO WELL KEEP LES
EPISODES FROM BEING PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY. WE CONTINUE TO RETAIN
CHC POPS FOR SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS ACRS MAINLY OUR FAR NRN ZNS FROM
TUE-THU. OUTSIDE OF LES AREAS...IT SHOULD STAY PRIMARILY DRY.

MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS IN TWDS NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE
TRACK/EVOLUTION OF SRN STREAM ENERGY FROM THE SWRN STATES IS YET
TO BE DETERMINED. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A LGT WINTRY
MIX BY THEN. WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE HOW THIS PATN DVLPS.

PREV DISC... PD SHOWS A GRADUAL RETURN TO MORE WINTER LIKE WX
INCLUDING COLDER AIR BUT WITHOUT A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM. LARGE SCALE
PTRN SHOWS A DVLPG BROAD UPR TROF OVER ERN CANADA AND THE ERN US
WITH A LRG 1052MB POLAR SFC HIGH OVER THE WRN PLAINS OF CANADA. AS
THIS HIGH SETTLES INTO THE CNTRL US BY THE NEW YEAR...VARIOUS WEAK
WVS IN THE NW FLOW OVER THE LAKES SWEEP THRU THE AREA.
EVENTUALLY...SOME LE SNOWS SEEM LIKELY TO DVLP BUT MORE WLY LL
FLOW SHD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE AREA. XPCT
THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THRU THE PD...WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR PLUNGES SWRD
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. SOME OCNL LE PSBL...BUT MAINLY
OVER THE XTRM NRN CWA.

FOR THE FCST FLWD THE HP GUID CLOSELY BUT DID MODIFY A BIT IN SOME
PDS TWRDS THE MEX GUID IF IT HELPED COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SAT UPDATE... MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD ACRS PTNS OF CNY OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT...WITH RESTRICTIVE CONDS MOST LIKELY AT
KRME...KSYR...AND KITH. THESE CLOUD BASES SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY
TO LIFT/SCT OUT AFTER 14-17Z.

MVFR CONDS COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD BACK INTO PTNS OF CNY TWDS THE
END OF THE PD (AFTER 02-04Z)...AS AN AREA OF -SHRA MOVES
IN...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR AT KRME.

OTHWS...VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH ABT 15Z...SHOULD INCREASE OUT OF THE S
AND SW THEREAFTER...AVERAGING 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-SHSN...SPCLY EARLY IN THE DAY.

MON...VFR.

TUE/WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FOR KRME/KSYR...DUE TO LES.
OTHWS...VFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP





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