Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 231615
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1215 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY LEADING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE POCONOS THURSDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDES NORTH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD IN OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM UPDATE...SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER WESTERN PA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATE MORNING
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU WILL DEVELOP WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE IS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHICH MAY DROP INTO THE NRN CWA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. ADVERTISED
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S LOOK REASONABLE.

130 AM UPDATE...
1025MB SFC HIGH IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVR CWA AS OF 05Z. HWVR
TROFFING RMNS AT UPR LVLS WITH BATCH OF LOW CLDS MVG SOUTH THRU
CANADA AT THIS TIME.  REMNANT LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVR SOME
PARTS OF SUSQUEHANNA REGIONS/MOHAWK VLY. EXPECT THAT AS SFC RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FM THE WEST, CLDS WL SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OF CWA LVG NRN CNTYS PCLDY THIS MRNG AND MOCLR ELSEWHERE.

TEMPS ACRS WRN RVR VLYS HV DROPPED DOWN TO CROSS-OVER TEMPS AND
WATCHING FOR SIGNS OF FOG DVLPMNT. HWVR AM NOT TOO WILD ABOUT THE
PROSPECT AS WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC ARE OUT OF THE NORTH FM 15-20KTS.
THIS WL LKLY KEEP ATMOSPHERE TOO MIXED THIS MRNG WITH PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED TO DVLP BUT FALL WELL SHORT OF LOCALLY DENSE. THUS SEE NO
REASON TO ADD INTO GRIDS AT THIS TIME BUT WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

WITH WINDS ABV THE SFC AT 20KTS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
TEMP DROP AND WITH DWPTS RMNG IN THE UPR 30S THIS WL LKLY PRECLUDE
THE DVLPMNT OF FROST THIS MRNG.

AS FOR WX EXPECTED TDA, PRTLY-MSTLY SUNNY EXPECTED CWA-WIDE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MIXING LOOKS AS THO IT WL OCCUR UP TO
ABOUT 875MB. THIS WL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS IN THE M/U 60S WHICH WL BE
5-10 DEGREES ABV YDA VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA INTO MID-WEEK. BEST NIGHT
FOR FOG LOOKS TO BE TONIGHT WITH LGT WINDS/CLR SKIES. RVR VLY FOG
FCST TO DVLP AFT 09Z AS DWPT DEPRESSIONS NARROW TO 0 BY THIS TIME.

WRINKLE DVLPS IN ONGOING DRY FCST WED NGT. H5 LOW THAT DVLPD THIS
EVNG DOWN ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RIDE NORTH TWD
FA DRG THE DAY WED. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO MVMNT OF H5 LOW
CURRENTLY MVG ACRS THE FRONT RANGE. AS THIS LOW HEADS EAST IT WL
SERVE AS THE KICKER FOR CLOSED H5 LOW OVR SERN U.S. THUS HV
INCREASED CLD CVR OVR SERN ZONES LATE WED NGT.

UNFORTUNATELY THAT ALSO MEANS WL HV TO INTRODUCE POPS TO SERN ZONES
AFT 06Z THURSDAY WITH GFS/EC/CMC SHOWING PCPN OVR POCONOS. NAM IS
CONFINING PCPN DOWN ACRS SRN/ERN PA WITH VRY LITTLE RAIN OVR
POCONOS.  WITH SUCH STRONG SFC HIGH RMNG LOCKED IN ACRS NERN U.S. WL
CAP POPS AT 20% DUE TO DRY AIR NEEDED TO OVERCOME TO PRODUCE LGT
RAIN.

AS SFC LOW MVS ACRS THE DELMARVA ON THURSDAY AND OUT TO SEA THUR NGT
NOT ENTIRELY CONVINCED THAT SERN ZONES WL SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING THRU
THE DAY THURSDAY. WL CONT WITH SLGT CHC RAIN THRU 18Z THURSDAY ACRS
THE POCONOS BUT VRY LITTLE MEASURABLE RAINFALL EXPECTED ATTM.

THE ONE THING THIS SYSTEM WL DO IS LWR MAX TEMPS ACRS SERN ZONES AND
DO NOT EXPECT THEY WL GET MUCH OUT OF THE 60S DRG THE DAY ON
THURSDAY THUS HV LOWERED MAXES BY 3-5 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE WL ONCE
AGAIN BUILD IN FM THE WEST THURSDAY NGT TO RESUME THE STRETCH OF DRY
WX AFTER A BRIEF INTERRUPTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET AND WARM THIS PERIOD. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL EXTEND
FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, WHILE A STRONG UL RIDGE
REMAINS FIXED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 70S THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY RISK OF PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN
TANGIBLE WEATHER TO DEAL WITH WILL BE MORNING FOG.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG HAVE BECOME QUITE DENSE THIS MORNING AT KELM AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT TO VFR AROUND 14Z
AS THE SUN WILL QUICKLY MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES... THUS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD FOG
NIGHT A KELM. EXPECT FOG TO BECOME QUIET DENSE AS IT DID THIS
MORNING. DO NOT BELIEVE FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OTHER SITES AS IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A DECENT DEW POINT DEPRESSION.

WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MSLP
WILL WEAKEN TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT THROUGH SAT...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS RELATED TO
EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG PRIMARILY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...KAH





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