Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 270751
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
251 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LIGHT NORTH WIND BEHIND YESTERDAY/S SNOWSTORM WILL BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE AREA...OTHER THAN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LGT NLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC WITH A MORE WLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE UPR
TROF. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA BRING LGT SNOW SHWRS...ESP OVER THE FINGER LAKES. ACTIVITY SHUD
BE LGT AND GNRLY DISORGANIZED...WITH A TENDENCY TO DRIFT MORE TWRD
THE MOHAWK VLY IN THE AFTN AS THE LL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY. WITH
TEMPS NEAR FRZG AND LGT SNOWFALL...XPCT VERY LTL IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMS DURING THE PD.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML WITH THE CLDS AND H8 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO
-10C RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHARP UPR WV APRCHS TNGT WHICH MAY INTENSIFY THE GNRLY WEAK LE.
STEERING FLOW IN THE UNSTABLE LYR IS WEAK AND SOMEWHAT SHEARED KEEPING
MUCH OF THE HEAVIER LE OUT OF THE AREA. STILL...COULD SEE SOME
AMTS APRCHG ADVISORY LATE TNGT AND EARLY FRI BEFORE A MORE WLY
FLOW AND STABLE AIR MOVES IN. DVLPG LE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

SHRT WV AXIS MVS THRU BY 12Z FRI LDG TO INCRSG HGTS AND WRMR
AIR. FAST FLOW BRINGS SFC RDGG IN BY 00Z SAT ENDING ANY LEFTOVER
LE...AND CLRG SKIES. IMMEDIATELY BHD THE RDG...WAA BEGINS AND WILL
QUICKLY INCRS THE CLDS FRI NGT. CONTD WAA MAY DVLPS SOME
OVERRUNNING PCPN...ESP SAT AFTN IN THE NY ZONES. TEMPS MRGNL BY THEN
BUT WILL CONT WITH SNOW SHWRS...HWVR SOME MIX PSBL LATE IN THE PD
OVER THE FINGER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 AM UPDATE...
LONG TERM WL START OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SW FLOW BY EARLY IN THE WEEK AS TROF DIGS THRU
CANADA. EXPECT JUST LOW CHCS FOR PCPN SUN/MON AHD OF CDFNT
TREKKING THRU NERN U.S. TIMING DIFFERS ON FROPA WITH EC LAGGING
BHND GFS/CMC BY 12 HRS. THUS WL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 40 POPS ON
MONDAY TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING. RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED MON MRNG WITH
SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN AS TEMPS RISE TO NR CLIMO WITH HIGHS ARND
40F.

HIPRES BUILDS IN BHND CDFNT THRU THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SFC AND UPR
LVL TROF WL APPCH BY MID-WEEK LEADING TO ADDNL CHANCES FOR PCPN
WITH RA/SN NIGHTTIME AND SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN HRS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SNOW IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS TERMINALS AT THIS TIME THOUGH
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR VSBYS/CIGS FOR FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF TAF
VALID TIME. RME AND SYR MAY SEE 2SM IN LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 08Z WITH
ITH SEEING IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z. PREDOMINANT MVFR -SHSN EXPECTED
AT NY TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

UNRESTRICTED SNOW SHOWERS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
IN WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING WITH EXCEPTION OF
AVP AND ELM AFTER 17Z AND BGM AFTER 21Z.

WINDS OUT OF THE NW AROUND 5KTS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO THE WEST
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF




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