Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 011436
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1036 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER OUR
REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH DRY WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY, AND THEN A STRONG FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1035 PM UPDATE...
THE OUTER BANDS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING UP
THE COAST ARE JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE CATSKILLS. MEANWHILE
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER PORTIONS OF NEPA. A 20 TO 30%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY FOR EVERYONE EXCEPT
THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES UP TO NEAR KSYR. I INCREASED CLOUD COVER A
BIT OTHERWISE TEMPS AND GOING FORECAST ARE ON TRACK. THE PREVIOUS
AFD IS BELOW.


315 AM UPDATE...
UL TROF IS PROGRESSING OVER THE FA THIS MORNING WHILE DIFFUSE SFC
FRONT HANGS UP TO THE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE FA THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-81.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO AROUND 70 DEGREES BASED ON 925MB 12C-13C TEMPS.

830 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN PA ATTM WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
EVIDENT ON VWP AND CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING WEST. CONVECTION
CURRENTLY MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY,
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FAR WEST AND CHC ELSEWHERE THEN LOWERING
POPS TO CHC/SLIGHT CHC AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF FA DUE TO EVENING RAINFALL AND WEAK
MIXING. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER, SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND MORNING FOG. COMBINATION OF LOW SUN ANGLE
AND LONG NIGHTS MAKES THIS TIME OF YEAR ONE OF THE BEST FOR
FOG FORMATION. RIVER VALLEYS SHOULD FOG IN NIGHTLY AFTER 6Z.

KEPT TO THE IDEA OF A SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION, AS THE MODELS
ARE STICKING TO THIS PROJECTION. RUNNING LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT
AS VIGOROUS UL TROF SWINGS INTO OHIO VALLEY AND POWERFUL CYCLONE
PULLS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN UP AHEAD OF THE STORM, SO LIKELY POPS LOOK REASONABLE THIS
FAR OUT.

OVERNIGHT TIMING MINIMIZES THUNDER THREAT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE IN THE 5C-6C RANGE...MEAGER TO MODEST. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE PROGGED BY NAM12 AROUND 4C. BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY GOOD WITH
0-6KM VALUES OF 30-35 KTS BUT IT APPEARS LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 TROF DIGGING IN TO START OFF THE EXTNDD WITH WIDESPREAD LGT-
MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED AS ADDNL WV MVS UP LATE FRI NIGHT.
FROPA OCCURS ON SATURDAY WITH JUST CHC POPS THRU THE LONG TERM AS
UL TROF RMNS THRU THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE BUT HV KNOCKED CATEGORICAL POPS DOWN TO LKLY FRI NGT AS
IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GO NR 100 AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z WED UPDATE... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS THIS MORNING WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE BY 15-17Z. IFR IS MOST LIKELY AT KELM...WITH BRIEF
PDS OF SUCH ALSO PSBL AT KITH AND KBGM.

VFR SHOULD RETURN AREA-WIDE BY AFTN...WITH CIG BASES LIFTING BY
THIS TIME. ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS COULD BE AT PLAY THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTN...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KBGM AND KAVP...BUT THEY ARE
LIKELY TO BE UNRESTRICTED...SHOULD THEY EVEN OCCUR.

LTR TNT...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DVLP ONCE AGN...MOST PREVALENT IN
THE TWIN TIER RVR VLYS. THUS...KELM IS EXPECTED TO DROP AT LEAST
BLO ALT MINS. SOME RESTRICTIONS COULD ALSO IMPACT
KRME/KITH/KBGM/KAVP IN THE PRE-DAWN PD.

OUTLOOK...

THU AND FRI...VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG/LWR CIGS...ESPECIALLY KELM/KITH/KBGM.

FRI NGT...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM SHRA.

SAT/SUN...MAINLY VFR. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...MLJ






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