Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 052103
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
403 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER ONEIDA COUNTY, DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW BY LATE MONDAY BUT
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AREA REMAINS IN A N/NW LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A DEPARTING STORM
TO THE EAST AND WEAK RIDGING OFF TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT, SOME
WEAK LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES AT THIS HOUR OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NY
INTO NE PA BUT EXPECT THIS TO DIMINISH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK.

FOR TONIGHT, FLOW TURNS TO W/SW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND A LOW MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT SOME WEAK
LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AS A RESULT. HOWEVER SINCE IT WILL BE A
WARM ADVECTION SCENARIO WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING ABOVE -10 C WE
DON`T EXPECT THIS TO ADD UP TO MUCH...LESS THAN AN INCH FOR MOST
SPOTS. OTHERWISE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA, MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THICKEN OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL NY AFTER SOME BRIEF CLEARING
THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY, CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS PERSIST AS AREA REMAINS IN WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN WITH SW FLOW AS LOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME WEAK
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA BUT TENDENCY WILL BE FOR
THIS TO DIMINISH WITH TIME AND ALSO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE SW AND TEMPS WARM. HIGHS MODERATE TO THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S...WARMEST OVER THE LAKE PLAIN AND COLDEST OVER THE
CATSTILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC ITS COLD FRONT WILL NEVER REALLY
MAKE IT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SINCE ANOTHER LOW WILL BE QUICKLY
ON ITS HEALS RESULTING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. OTHER THAN A LITTLE
POSSIBLE RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT SATURDAY EVENING OVER NORTHERN
ONEIDA, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS.

FAIR AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER BY MONDAY
THE NEXT LOW WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD THE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FLOW
PATTERN NEXT WEEK. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH IMPACTS WELL TO THE EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES... HOWEVER THE
LOW- LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN THE WAKE OF THE OCEAN STORM WILL NOT BE
CONDUCIVE TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. AS A RESULT THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN A WEAK... DISORGANIZED AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BASED ON
THIS WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING DISORGANIZED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
UNLIKELY. EVENTUALLY SOME COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH
WHICH COULD RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE... BKN CIGS FROM 3-5 KFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRACKS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH PATCHY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW AT 10 TO
20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON... SHIFTING TO WESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
THIS EVENING... LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT... THEN SOUTHWEST AT
AROUND 10 KTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHSN AT KSYR-KRME AS FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...VFR.

MON AFTN THROUGH TUE...CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...BJT/MDP/MSE
AVIATION...MDP/MSE


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