Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 051940
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
340 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER OF DRY
AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS NORTH OF A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION HAS KEPT RAIN SHOWERS AT BAY TODAY.
HOWEVER THE CLOUD COVER HAS PERSISTED DUE TO A TRAPPED LAYER OF
MOISTURE NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPED BY A WEAK
INVERSION AROUND 800MB. SAW SOME CLEARING AROUND LAKE ONTARIO AND
THE NRN FINGER LAKES THIS MORNING...BUT WAS QUICKLY REPLACED BY
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STRATO-CU. MUCH OF THE AREA HAS
REMAINED IN THE 50S TODAY...WITH A FEW LOWER 60S TO THE NORTH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS THE AIR MASS BELOW THE INVERSION REMAINS SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE. THE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DEEPEN AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT REMAINS FOCUSED OVER NE PA.
RAINFALL AMTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD...ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
CUTOFF UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH LIFTS NWD ALONG WITH STRONGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. DEEP MIXING EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE COLD
CORE OF THE LOW STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION AND
ALLOWING A BROAD RAIN SHIELD TO OVERTAKE MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND NE
PA. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 1 INCH AND COMBINE WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE AROUND A HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL SOUTH
OF THE FINGER LAKES...AND A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS TO THE NORTH.

THE UPPER LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH...BUT GET KICKED
TO THE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW EVENTUALLY PHASES WITH
THE INCOMING UPPER WAVE AND ONLY ALLOWS FOR A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY AS WEAK RIDGING CAUSES LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA SAT MORNING/AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AND WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE BUT KEEP THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN SHOWERS GOING. WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL ONCE
AGAIN ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS ACROSS THE FAR NRN CENTRAL NY COUNTIES. THE RAIN WILL
FINALLY COME TO AN END LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL REMAIN STEADY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS
A CANADIAN AIR MASS DROPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 50S FOR MOTHER`S DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. MULTP UPPR LVL TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO SWING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH EACH PASSING SYSTEM. GUIDANCE IS
NOT IN AGREEMENT OF THE WHEN EACH WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION...THUS KEPT IT SIMPLE WITH 40 POP CHANCE IN FORECAST AS THE
TIMING IS VERY DIFFERENT WITH EACH SYSTEM WITH THE THE GFS/ECMWF.
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC/SUPER BLEND FOR FORECAST. TEMPS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STUBBORN MVFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE
REGION. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE MANAGED TO RISE TO VFR SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON... HOWEVER SOME ARE STILL HOLDING STEADY AT MVFR.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR BY 00Z TODAY AT ALL TAF
SITES.

FOR THE MOST PART TODAY WILL REMAIN DRY... BUT SOME INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ANY
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE A SHOWER THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER KELM AND KBGM.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
SPREAD NORTHWARD. MVFR WITH SOME EMBEDDED IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI EVENING...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SAT NGT - SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.

MON...VFR

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH


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