Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 220038
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
838 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST ON SATURDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
835 PM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE AS WE ARE ACTIVELY MONITORING A BUSY RADAR THIS EVENING.

TONGUE OF INSTABILITY, MARKED BY MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG, WILL
RAPIDLY RECEDE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS NOCTURNAL COOLING
COMMENCES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE, WITH ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAINLY EAST OF I-81 THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT
SEEMS TO BE OVER AT THIS POINT.

2 PM UPDATE...
UPR LVL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIT WAVES AT US AND KEEPS SCATTERED
CONVECTION DVLPNG AT RANDOM TDA. AS CONVECTION HEADS EAST THIS EVNG,
EXPECT IT TO BCM A LITTLE MORE INTENSE ALONG AND EAST OF I-81
CORRIDOR IN AREA OF BETTER LIFT AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HWVR THRU 00Z
EXPECT LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. MLCAPES OF
1000 J/KG HV OVERSPREAD ENTIRE CWA AT THIS TIME WITH BEST 0-6KM
SHEAR RMNG SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS MAY SEE AN ODD STRONG STORM THIS
AFTN/EVNG BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY.

STORMS WL LKLY PRODUCE 0.50-1.00 INCHES PER HOUR BUT WL BE FINE IF
THEY CAN KEEP MVG. IF STORMS CAN GET ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OR A LURKING BNDRY, FLOODING (PONDING AND/OR FLASH) COULD BCM AN
ISSUE. HWVR NO THREAT LOOKS IMMINENT AT THIS TIME AND WL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POTENTIAL IN HWO.

THUNDER WL BCM LESS AFT 04Z TONIGHT WITH JUST SHOWERS EXPECTED AS
INSTABILITY WANES. VRY JUICY AIRMASS WL RMN LOCKED OVR CNY AND NEPA
TONIGHT AND HV ADDED IN AREAS OF VLY FOG ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG TO
RMNDR OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
700MB WV WL SKIRT THRU THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH CHC POPS
CWA-WIDE INTO THE AFTN, VRY SLOWLY COMING TO AN END ACRS NRN ZONES
TWD 00Z SAT. AT THE SAME TIME, SFC HIPRES WL BE BUILDING IN FM NEW
ENGLAND RESULTING IN STABLE EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO BRING AN END TO
PCPN. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WL BE SIMILAR TO PRIOR DAY, ARND 80 IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH WITH DWPTS RMNG UP IN THE 60S GIVING A HUMID AIRMASS
TO THE ENTIRE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

AS TROF DROPS THRU AND HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE EAST EXPECT PCPN TO
WIND DOWN BY 12Z SATURDAY. WITH DIURNAL HTG ON SATURDAY EXPECT ISOLD
SHOWERS TO POP UP THO MAY SEE MORE SCTD SHOWERS ACRS NEPA AS FINAL
WV PUSHES THRU DRG THE AFTN. TEMPS WL SETTLE OUT RIGHT ARND NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHILE A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM RANGE ECMWF DEPICTS A TROPICAL-BASED
CYCLONE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD, BUT STAYING FAR OFF THE
COAST BEFORE RECURVING EASTWARD ONCE IT REACHES 38-39 DEGREES
NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT. SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING NEAR THE TERMINALS NOW. SOME BRIEF
IFR IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KBGM AND KSYR.

ASIDE FROM THE SHOWERS, WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DRYING TREND EARLY
TONIGHT. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS
(WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT THE ELEVATED SITES) AFTER MIDNIGHT. BASED ON
THE FICKLE NATURE OF THE MVFR LAST NIGHT AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING, I PUSHED BACK MVFR TIMING TO BE BETWEEN 07Z AND 15Z.
THE ONE EXCEPTION IS KELM WHERE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY EARLY
TONIGHT. WITH A CLEAR SKY WEST OF THE TERMINAL AND A THUNDERSTORM
MOVING THROUGH, IFR IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 01Z. WHILE CONDITIONS
MAY BOUNCE AROUND A BIT THROUGH MIDNIGHT, DENSE FOG SEEMS LIKE A
GOOD BETTER AFTER THAT TIME.

WE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID FRIDAY MORNING. SCT. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...IFR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
KELM.

SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP/PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...HEDEN





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