Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 231853
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
253 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak upper level disturbances, combined with lake moisture, will
trigger some scattered sprinkles in the Finger Lakes and Mohawk
valley tonight and Thursday. Otherwise, high pressure building
into the region will provide mainly dry but cool weather through
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 PM Update...
A broad trof will reside over the Northeastern U.S. through
Friday with cool low level flow blowing from the northwest.
Models indicate weak waves will rotate around the upper trof at
times this evening and tomorrow. This weak forcing and lake
differential instability may bring a few light showers, or
sprinkles to the Finger Lakes and Upper Mohawk valley.

850 MB thermal trof over the region will mean unseasonably cool
temperatures in the lower-mid 50s with the upper 60s and lower
70s for highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM Update...
Surface high pressure continues to flex its muscles heading into
the weekend as the upper trof weakens slightly. Low level flow
remains from the NW across the warm waters of Lake Ontario, but
weakens. Still some weak PVA rotating around, but atmosphere
below 700 mb really dries out. At this time, the 12Z ECMWF is
the only model left with any kind of QPF on Friday, so the
consensus blend will be to reduce PoPs and keep things quiet
with no mention of sprinkles/showers across the northern areas
through Saturday.

Mainly clear skies and the chilly/dry airmass will mean
overnight lows colder than normal. Many areas will reach the
mid-upper 40s both Thursday night and Friday night. Highs also
sub-seasonal...although gradually warming from around 70 Friday
to the lower 70s Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 pm update...

A nice stretch of weather. Mainly dry with temperatures slightly
below average. A broad trough of colder air aloft while high
pressure sets up at the surface Saturday night to Tuesday.

Beyond this much uncertainty and model differences. Tropical
moisture may approach from the southwest well ahead of tropical
depression Harvey. In addition a weak cold front is possible
Wednesday or Thursday. Harvey may get here after that.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 pm update...

Primarily VFR conditions are expected this TAF period with
SCT/BKN strato-cumulus today around 5K feet diminishing this
evening. Overnight, valley fog is likely over the twin tiers
with KELM dropping into the IFR category 09 to 12Z. Fog only
there to lift by 13z. Elmira should be able to get to the
crossover temperature near 50. Boundary level winds 10 to 15
kts. Thursday skies become broken again in NY but VFR.

West to northwest winds 10 knots with gusts to 20 this
afternoon. Tonight light and variable winds. West to northwest
winds at 5 to 10 knots Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Monday...Mainly VFR except for valley
fog at KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC



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