Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 180006
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
706 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Area of low pressure over western New York will track eastward
tonight with rain showers mixing with freezing rain in the higher
elevations of the Catskills. Rain will gradually taper off and mix
with light snow through the day Wednesday. High pressure builds in
Wednesday night with dry weather expected through Friday. Periods
of rain expected this weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 pm Update...
Main concerns in the near term remain focused around the broad
area of rain over much of the forecast area with intermittent
light freezing rain across the colder, elevated areas of the
Catskills this afternoon and evening. A Freezing Rain Advisory
remains in effect for Oneida, Otsego, Delaware and Sullivan
counties in central NY until 10 pm tonight.

Surface low currently moving ewd into wrn NY this afternoon with
an associated upper wave contracting across nrn NY. A secondary
upper wave is quickly following in its footsteps and driving ewd
through the srn Great Lakes. This secondary upper trough has
relatively colder air associated with it...850mb temps around -1
to -3 deg C. The nose of warm air aloft that created favorable
conditions for freezing rain continues to linger over the
Catskills and ern NY today...and will interact with slightly
cooling sfc temps to trigger additional chances for light freezing
rain from Oneida to Sullivan County through this evening.

However...much cooler air aloft will begin to push in this
evening as the upper trough moves in. Temperatures at the surface
will remain in the mid to upper 30s/lower 40s for a good portion
of central NY and ne PA tonight. So...with an above freezing near
surface layer most of the precip will be allowed to fall as
rain...with the exception of elevated areas mentioned previously.

Will see conditions become favorable for areas of fog and low
clouds tonight as well. With the boundary layer near saturation
and cooling conditions aloft, the potential for fog formation
appears to increase tonight and Wed morning.

Will likely see the bulk of the colder air aloft move in during
the day tomorrow...which will combine with lower to mid 30 surface
temps to mix in or change the rain over to snow. Best chance of
light accumulating snow...around an inch or less...will be in the
higher terrain locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Relatively quiet and mild conditions in store for the short term period.

Low level moisture with stratus will linger Wednesday night
beneath an inversion. Most of this moisture will be below the
800mb level so any spotty precip will be light and could even fall
as a little freezing drizzle for areas that dip below freezing.
The chance for this precip will be mainly over central NY and
especially eastern and northeastern zones around Oneida County.

For Thursday, despite high pressure beginning to move in,expect
low overcast to persist but with mostly dry conditions. Highs
will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s...coolest east and warmest
over western areas, especially the Valleys.

The high builds in for Thursday night with a period of partial
clearing with light winds allowing temps to drop to the upper 20s
to around 30 despite a mild airmass in place.

We are still watching a system for Friday that will bring
increasing clouds but at this point it looks to stay mainly to the
south so we only keep chance / slight chances for showers in the
forecast for NE PA into the southern tier. With the mild airmass
in place, any precip falls as rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mild temperatures will continue to be the story for the long
range as arctic air remains well off to the north....

Early in the period, a weakening system will advance toward the
area but most of the precip with this feature looks to fall apart
as it moves into the high pressure system over the northeast. For
this reason, we only maintain low chances for a little light rain
and a few showers for Friday night into Saturday. Lows Friday
night will be in the 30s with highs Saturday in the 40s.

Saturday night through most of Sunday looks to be dry as upper
level ridging continues to dominate over the northeast. However
forecast models continue to depict a warm, rainy system affecting
the east early next week which has a good chance of bringing the
area at least some rain. At this point, however, details with this
system are still uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A slow moving low pressure system will track from southern Ontario
east across northern New York State on Wednesday. Weak flow and
abundant low level moisture will keep widespread IFR/Alternate
minimum conditions over the terminals through the mid morning.
Showers will be most common through 03Z then primarily drizzle
and fog through mid morning. On Wednesday around 15Z as flow
becomes west/northwest at KSYR/KELM/KAVP conditions will improve
to alternate required. Rest of TAF sites will improve to IFR.

Low level wind shear may still occur at KAVP but only for the
next couple of hours. Light and variable winds or light
east/southeast will prevail overnight. Winds becoming
west/northwest by late morning Wednesday around 5-8 knots.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday night...Lingering restrictions.

Thursday and Friday...VFR.

Friday night and Saturday...Chance for mixed rain-snow and associated
restrictions.

Sunday...Generally VFR conditions expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No flooding is expected.

Rainfall today and Wednesday of half an inch to an inch and some
snow melt will cause streams and rivers to rise again. Some of the
headwaters and Wilkes-Barre could get back to caution stage.
Rainfall will be mostly half an inch with close to an inch in the
far north. Snow melt will add little to the runoff. Water
equivalent in northeast PA and the southern Catskills is less than
a quarter inch. Except for northern Oneida County NY, snow is
patchy and confined to the woods. This will add little also with
temperatures mostly in the 30s.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Freezing Rain Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ009-
     037-046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...



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