Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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035
FXUS61 KBGM 280906
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
506 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region this morning providing
partly sunny skies and warm temperatures. A frontal boundary
will remain over the area through the weekend keeping a chance
for showers and thunderstorms, although much of the time it will
remain dry and mild.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
at 430 am...Surface cold front was moving through the western
Mohawk Valley and western Catskills with a few primarily light
showers along this feature. High pressure in the Ohio Valley
will build eastward into the region this morning and provide
partly sunny skies along with mild temperatures. Highs
temperatures will range from the lower to middle 70s in the
central New York and the middle to upper 70s in northeast
Pennsylvania.

Conditions will remain dry this evening then a mid level wave in
southwest flow will bring the chance for showers primarily after
midnight. The highest chance for showers will be across
northeast Pennsylvania and the southern tier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A deep upper level trof in the mid west along with a strong
southeast upper level ridge will keep a southwest upper level
flow pattern across the region through the weekend. Impulses
moving through this fast flow will be difficult to time with
models all showing timing differences. A frontal boundary will
also remain in the local vicinity with a slight movement
northward as the weekend progresses. These features will keep a
chance for showers throughout the period with thunderstorms
most likely Saturday afternoon across the southern tier and
northeast Pennsylvania and everywhere on Sunday due to mid
level instability.

High temperatures on Saturday will range from the middle 60s to
lower 70s in central New York and middle to upper 70s in
northeast Pennsylvania. Sunday high temperatures will generally
range in the middle to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
400 AM EDT Update...
No significant changes were made to the previous forecast. The
previous forecast was in great shape. For more information
please read the previous forecast discussion below.

Previous forecast discussion...
250 pm update... Hit and miss showers are expected Sunday
night, within a warm advection regime. A better chance of
showers and thunderstorms are anticipated Monday afternoon and
evening, ahead of a fairly strong cold front. If adequate
destabilization can develop Monday, some stronger storms are not
out of the question, given a healthy low-level wind field.
Temperatures Monday afternoon should be back into the 70s.

Tuesday-Wednesday look cooler, post frontal passage. Some
lingering light showers are possible, with an upper trough in
the vicinity, but overall things look drier this period. Highs
mainly in the 60s Tuesday, should drop mostly into the 50s by
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rain showers with an occasional rumble of thunder are moving
northeast across the region this morning ahead fropa. In its
wake are VFR conditions and westerly winds. Expect VFR flight
conditions to prevail for the next 24 hours as weak high
pressure builds into the region. Drier air will filter into the
region on Friday, thus mostly clear skies are expected mid
afternoon.

Winds ahead of the showers will be S/SE around 10 knots, and
behind the fropa winds will become W around 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...Although VFR is likely the majority
of the time, rounds of showers or thunderstorms could bring
occasional restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...KAH/TAC



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