Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 161512
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1012 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered snow showers will persist today as a band of snow
drops south across our region. High pressure will build in this
evening, keeping our weather quiet tonight into Sunday. Another
storm will bring light snow Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1010 AM update...
Latest NAMNEST shows the LES band reorganizing today over
Northern Onondaga County, before dropping south after 1 PM. We
are keeping an eye on this trend and will consider an SPS if the
situation warrants.

Minor changes were made to the grids this morning, mostly
adjusting the POPs through mid-afternoon.

230 AM Update...

Early this morning two lake bands are in the CWA. The one from
Lake Ontario is in far northern Oneida County where an advisory
continues. Towards 7 AM this band will slowly shift south into
the whole county. After only a few hours it shifts out of
northern Oneida into the thruway corridor late morning and
weakens. Widespread snow amounts of 3 to 6 inches in northern
Oneida with lesser amounts of maybe an inch for the thruway.

Another band is across the twin tiers into the Catskills from
Lake Erie. This is lighter in intensity but probably still
putting down some light snow amounts of an inch or less so far.
Today this band will continue and shift slowly south. Snow
showers and flurries are possible as far south as the Poconos.
Light snow accumulations are also possible across the entire
CWA. For south central NY and NEPA this snow will be this
afternoon. The most snow will be across the higher terrain
closest to Lake Erie such as western Steuben County where 1 to 3
inches is likely.

A large ridge of high pressure will build in from Hudson Bay
this evening shutting down the lake effect quickly after
sunset. The high will remain into Sunday. Clearing and colder
air will work in from the northeast. Low temperatures in the
single digits Syracuse to Walton northeast. More clouds in the
southwest will keep lows in the teens. Again with the fresh snow
these low temperatures are too warm if anything.

Sunday with morning sunshine temperatures will rise into the
upper 20s and lower 30s for most of the area. Clouds come in
during the afternoon ahead of the next system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday night...Light snow is expected across the region with
snow accumulations generally an inch or less. Initially a mid
level wave moving through Pennsylvania will result in the
highest pops across the southern half of the forecast area.
After midnight the better forcing transitions to the northern
and eastern forecast area under weak warm air advection forcing
from a minor surface low in the central Great Lakes. Overnight
lows will occur during the early evening hours then slowly rise
overnight. Lows will range from the teens in northern Oneida
County to the upper 20s across the southern tier and northeast
Pennsylvania.

Monday...The above mentioned surface low will track into northern
New York State but overall the forcing weakens on Monday. Will
continue with chance pops over New York Sate and slight chance
northeast Pennsylvania. Temperatures will rise into the middle
30s to around 40 under a southwest moderating flow. By afternoon
boundary layer temperatures will result in mixed rain/snow
showers with only the colder areas in the western Catskills and
northern Oneida County remaining all snow. Any additional
accumulations will occur in the northern and eastern forecast
area with amount generally less than an inch.

Monday night...Region will remain in a southwest flow regime
with weak isentropic lift. Forcing looks best in the far
northern forecast area where likely pops will be advertised
with chance and slight chance to the south. Overnight lows will
range from 30 to 35, with some moderation overnight so a
snow/rain shower mix will continue. Any snow accumulations will
be minor.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No significant changes to the extended forecast just minor
adjustments based on latest Superblend and WPC guidance.

On Tuesday, upper level trough digs into the Great Lakes as low
pressure moving through eastern Canada drags a cold front across
the area during the afternoon/evening. Temperatures will warm
enough by afternoon for precipitation to fall as rain showers.
Highs will range in the lower to middle 40s. Tuesday night
through Wednesday evening lake effect snow will develop across
the northern forecast area and due to persistent flow could
result in significant accumulations. Thursday will be
precipitation free as high pressure over eastern Canada noses
down. Thursday night through Friday night, low pressure is
expected to track from the mid west northeast across the central
Great Lakes into southern Ontario. Since region will reside
well into the warm sector with this track precipitation should
change to all rain by Friday afternoon after a period of light
snow. Friday night and Saturday after the passage of the cold
front the precipitation will change back to scattered snow
showers.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630 am update...

A strong lake effect band will start dropping south by 13z and
into RME with steady MVFR conditions and at times IFR from 14 to
18Z before dropping further south by 19z. In central NY today
frequent MVFR mostly due to vsbys in snow showers but at times
IFR vsby and MVFR cigs.

With the Lake Erie band extending well inland AVP could have
some MVFR snow showers 20 to 23z otherwise VFR.

By around 00z all sites go to VFR and remain there all night.

SW to W wind at 5 to 10 kts continue through most of the day.
This evening NW wind at 5 kts go light and variable.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR.

Sunday night to Tuesday...Possible restrictions in rain or snow
showers.

Wednesday...Restrictions possible again in lake effect snow
showers mostly in central NY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...TAC



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