Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
FXUS61 KBGM 250853
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
453 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
A summer like weather pattern will take hold, with warmer
temperatures, and gradually increasing humidity, over the next
several days. Outside of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm,
today looks rain free. Scattered afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms, can be expected both Thursday and Friday, although
again, most of the time should be rain free.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
430 am update...
Mostly clear skies prevail early this morning, with readings
having dipped into the 40s in many spots, as we approach
daybreak. This will lead into a sunny start to the day, with
temperatures rising quickly later this morning.
A short-wave is evident on satellite imagery at this time,
extending from central Ontario into the upper Midwest. This
feature is progged to track southeastward today, reaching
southeastern Ontario and upstate NY this afternoon. In tandem with
this disturbance, a weak surface boundary will also approach
upstate NY by early evening. Although forced lift with either of
these systems looks fairly weak, owing in part to meager upper jet
support, their approach will coincide with peak heating and some
instability (expected ML Cape maxima of 500-750 j/kg). Thus, we`ll
continue to call for isolated-scattered showers/thunderstorms this
afternoon into the early evening, mostly for our northern zones.
NY`s southern tier and Northeast PA should end up largely rain-
Highs this afternoon should range from the upper 70s-mid 80s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
445 am update...
Any residual early evening convection should fade quickly, with
clear-partly cloudy skies overnight.
A typical summer-like regime will set up Thursday-Friday, with
building upper-level heights along the eastern seaboard. At the
surface, a weak frontal boundary/convergence zone will remain in
the vicinity, and thus become the focus for diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms. Owing to lack of upper-level synoptic
support/warm temperatures aloft on Thursday, afternoon showers and
storms should remain isolated/scattered in nature, primarily
affecting Central NY, with relatively little impact for Northeast
Friday, with higher progged surface dew points (into the 60s),
the air mass will become more unstable (ML Capes of 1000-2000
j/kg), and thus scattered thunderstorms will be possible area-
wide. However, wind fields look weak all the way up through the
mid-levels (generally 20-25 kt or less), so severe storms seem
Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the 80s, with overnight lows
in the upper 50s and 60s.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upr rdg remains in place thru the long term but back door fnt now
threatens the holiday. Aftn conv psbl Sat but by late
Sun...backdoor fnt starts to drop wwrd into wrn NY dvlpg conv
along the bdry. EURO and GFS both cont the wwrd mvmt into the
Holiday and wld bring cooler air...esp on Mon with an ely flow.
Cool air begins to withdraw by Tue and allows temps to rcvr a bit.
With uncertainty, went with gnrl chance pops thru the pd for conv
and the passage of the fnt. Dropped temps a few degrees with the
arrival of the cooler air.
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. A weak front will sink southward into northern NY this afternoon
which may generate a shower or two near KSYR/KITH/KBGM but confidence
is to low attm to place in tafs. Restrictions if they occur would
be brief. Clouds clear early this evening.
Winds will be light and variable through sunrise, then increase to
around 10 knots from the west with gusts up to 20 knots especially
KSYR and KRME with wind funneling down the Mohawk Valley.
Thu thru Sun...Gnrl VFR conds thru the pd. Aftn tstms psbl any day with
brief restrictions but best chance will be Sat and Sun.