Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 111031
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
631 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WROK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LGT WINDS AND CLR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED THE TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
LWR 50S IN THE VLYS...SO DENSE FOG IS THE RESULT. DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL ALLOW QUICK MIXING BURNING OFF THE FOG SHRTLY AFT SUNRISE.

BALANCE OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY. SHRT TERM MODELS SHOW
SOME CONV FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP OVER PA WHERE THERE
A BIT MORE LL MOISTURE...BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL NOT BE
DEEP ENUF TO GENERATE PCPN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VLY FOG SEEMS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN UNDER THE SFC HIPRES. SAT WILL BE
MSTLY SUNNY HWVR WE/LL START TO SEE A RETURN OF MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA SO SOME ISLTD LATE AFTN CONV CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BEST CHANCE
AGAIN WLD BE TERRAIN DRIVEN.

NICE LTL SHRT WV AND CLSD SFC LOW LIFTS NE OVER THE LAKES ON
SUNDAY. THIS BRINGS THE BEST UPR SUPPORT NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA...BUT WE WILL STILL SEE A STRENGTHENING UPR JET ALONG WITH A
SFC BNDRY PASSING THRU. THIS SHD TRIGGER WIDESPREAD CONV SUN AFTN
INTO SUN EVENING. BNDRY SLOWS AND BEGINS TO WASH OUT JUST EAST OF
THE AREA SUN NGT SO CONV COULD LINGER IN THE ERN ZONES FOR MUCH OF
THE OVRNGT PD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DROP THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT
THE SFC, A COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME. SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CARRY HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONCE THE FINAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY THE REMAINING EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND COOL. HIGHS
BOTH WED/THU WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS FCST PD. PATCHY MID CLDS THIS MRNG GIVING WAY
TO FEW-SCT CU THIS AFTN. POTNL FOR MVFR LATE TNGT AT ELM IN VLY
FOG. LGT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT/SAT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT PRE-DAWN VALLEY FOG AT KELM.

SUN THROUGH TUE...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...






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