Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 050020
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
719 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. BEHIND THIS FRONT COLDER
BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
7PM EST UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
CURRENT TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED. BELIEVE THE
COLDER AIR MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO PUSH INTO THE REGION THUS...
HAVE RAISED THE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOW. SLOWLY
BUT SURELY PRECIP IS PUSHING INTO THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
OVER NORTHEAST PA. ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN RAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS
ARE STILL IN THE UPPR 30S. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO CENTRAL NY. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 03Z. TEMPS BY DAYBREAK WILL GENERALLY BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES.

OVER NE PA A WAVE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH
BY DAYBREAK. PRECIP GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ALONG THE NRN PTN OF
THIS BOUNDARY AS DRY AIR WILL BE ADVECTING SOUTH. IN GENERAL 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL OVER NE PA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN LUZERNE, LACKAWANNA, WAYNE AND
PIKE COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT PRIMARILY DRY.
SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG A 300 VECTOR BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAK DUE TO FAIRLY
LOW INVERSION HEIGHT. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE A FEW DEGREES
UNDER CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CAA. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LOW TEMPS WILL WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW. ANY LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND
BECOMES VERY LIGHT. ON FRIDAY SFC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH SOME MODIFICATION EXPECTED UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAXES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS
THE NEXT SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER THE NRN CWA
BY DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...WEAK WAA FORCING AHEAD OF NEXT SFC TROF WILL BRING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY TO CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVER NRN ONEIDA COUNTY LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES FAVORABLE
OF LES BY LATE DAY SO INCLUDED LIKELY POPS HERE WITH MINOR ACCUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS IN A STATE OF FLUX AWAY FROM THE
VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN AND, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
IN THESE SITUATIONS, THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE THAN AVERAGE IN
THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. THAT SAID, THE
OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS WITH WEAK, FAST
MOVING SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AN INITIAL
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A SHOT OF
SOME SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
OR LESS AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 ALONG WITH SOME DEVELOPING SUNSHINE. BEYOND THIS TIME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT ARE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. THE MELTING OF SNOW
ICE SHOULD BE TEMPERED, HOWEVER, BY OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT LOOK TO BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD FOR KSYR/KRME/KITH/KBGM/KELM
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VIS FOR THESE
SITES. FOR KAVP MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF
SNOW MOVING IN AND EFFECTING THE AREA CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT MVFR VIS WITH THIS SNOW DROPPING AT TIMES TO
IFR...ESPECIALLY AROUND AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE SNOW
MOVES OUT AROUND DAYBRERAK...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
OR POSSIBLY VFR.

GENERALLY EXPECT WNW WINDS 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT BECOMING
MORE NW OR NEARLY NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY FOR KSYR/KRME

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...KAH/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...ABS






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