Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 212000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
200 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Low level moisture from snowmelt, lack of mixing and cooler
temperatures are leading to dense fog development along the James
Valley today. This fog is expected to persists and expand
westward later tonight. Therefore, a Dense Fog Advisory has been
issued for the northern James Valley through tomorrow morning.

Tonight, it appears the low stratus/fog will overspread areas
along, north and east of Lake Sakakawea and the Missouri River.
Short-term models continue to indicate stratus mainly across
eastern North Dakota and central North Dakota seeing decreasing
mid and high level clouds tonight with good radiational cooling.
Thus fog should develop on the west edge of the stratus tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

The long term also appears quiet, for the most part. Models keep
the Tuesday clipper further north and east, leaving most of North
Dakota dry. There still appears to be a storm that will impact
portions of the Northern Plains Friday into Saturday, but there is
a lot of uncertainty with respect to the track of the storm and
associated impacts. Temperatures over the next week should be
slightly above normal, except Thursday which may be well above
normal, ahead of the aforementioned storm system. Models have
backed off on the precipitation potential Friday into Saturday. A
model blend still brings some chance pops Friday into Saturday but
the trend is certainly drier.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Hazards to aviation for the 18Z TAF period will focus on MVFR/IFR
conditions from clouds and fog. An area of stratus across eastern
North Dakota at 18Z Sunday will slowly migrate westward over the
next 24 hours. Fog will form on the western periphery of this area
impacting KMOT-KBIS-KJMS in MVFR/IFR conditions. KISN-KDIK will
remain VFR.


Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Monday for NDZ005-013-023-025-



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