Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 261343

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
843 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Issued at 843 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

No major changes required for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

The forecast is on track, so only changes made were to blend in
current conditions.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Latest GOES16 Infrared loop shows cloud tops warming while
thinning at the same time, hence cirrus will continue to wane
towards sunrise especially over southern North Dakota. Overall
column exhibits height rises in the short term period, most
pronounced in the 850mb-700mb layer as a low/mid level ridge axis
forms over eastern Montana and western North Dakota. With
subsidence through the column expect plenty of sunshine and warm
temperatures, with afternoon highs in the 80s.

Latest water vapor imagery loop shows a west-southwest upper flow
into North Dakota. Noted upstream were a couple of mid level
shortwaves, from Idaho into Nevada and Utah. Models pick up on
these shortwaves which begin to impinge on the western fringes of
the 850mb-700mb ridge axis tonight. Surface low pressure forms in
north central Montana with a return low level southeasterly to
southerly flow over western ND. Operational models are split as to
whether or not a shower or two creeps into western ND in the 06z-
12z Thursday timeframe. The GFS/SREF/ECMWF/Canadian show a small
pocket of light qpf in varying locations in northwest ND, while
the NAM/GFS Ensemble Mean remain dry. The Superblend/National
Blend of Models came in as dry, and will keep that in the forecast
with the uncertainty mentioned above. If precipitation did
develop, it would be in the form of rainshowers and not
thunderstorms, as Cape remains in eastern Montana. The dayshift
can re-evaluate the need for pops in the west or northwest late

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

The 700mb/mid level ridge axis, shifts into central North Dakota
Friday, then begins to lose its identity Friday night and Saturday,
as a stronger shortwave pushes across Montana and into western
North Dakota. An 850mb low level jet increases Thursday night/Friday
in the west, with a narrow corridor of weak instability and shear
developing. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will
suffice for now. The shortwave trough then shifts through Friday
night and Saturday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

After Saturday`s shortwave departs, heights will rise once again
with the ridge amplifying through Sunday, keeping the area dry and
warm Sunday. Shortwaves will begin to flatten the ridge early
next week, with isolated showers/thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.
Highs in the 80s to around 90.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period along with
winds of 10 kts or less.




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