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000
FXUS64 KBRO 251132
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
532 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE UPPER LEVELS
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS S TX
PRODUCING BROKEN TO OCCASIONALLY OVC CIG AOB 20K FEET. WINDS
SHIFT NORTHERLY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT AS REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE CWA. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE AN UPPER LOW REMAINS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER
THE BAJA CA COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STREAM FEW TO SCT
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE
TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
CWA. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
RELAX. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH RETURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY AND THICKNESS VALUES GRADUALLY LOWER A BIT MORE.
HOWEVER...THE WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE THE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT VARY
MUCH. LOW TEMPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY. THE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY
BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TX THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTH TX
THURS NIGHT. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO WEST TX FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GLOBAL MODELS PROG A 500MB TROUGH/LOW
IN THE VICINITY OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGS
PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE STATE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
MORE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
SOUTH TEXAS BUT REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION LIMITING ANY RAINFALL CHANGES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REINFORCING TOWARDS THE SOUTH EARLY
MONDAY WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE WINDS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS
BUT QUICKLY LOWER BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS UP
4 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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