Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 290548 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1148 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. /53/

&&

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND
AND END TO THE PRECIPITATION...CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
DUE TO SATURATED GROUNDS...LACK OF MIXING...AND A LACK OF ANY
SIGNFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. KMFE CEILINGS DID CLEAR
BRIEFLY BUT FOG IS NOW DEVELOPING AND LOW CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...TOUGH CALL. THE TREND WILL BE FOR IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS ACROSS ALL THREE TAF LOCATIONS AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING / MIXING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. THE ABSENCE OF CEILINGS MAY BE SHORT
LIVED AS WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY AFTERNOON MONDAY AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS ALONG WITH MVFR OR PERHAPS LOWER CEILINGS
BY EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THOROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. /51/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA THE
RAIN WILL END/ CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE DUE TO SATURATED
GROUNDS...LACK OF MIXING...AND A LACK OF STRONG DRY AIR
ADVECTION. STILL THE TREND WILL BE FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BRIEF FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE. FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS AROUND SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY. /51/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER
THE AREA AND RATHER DRY...ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT.
SAT OBS SHOW CLOUDS ERODING UPSTREAM AND THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE
AS A MID LEVEL TROF OVERHEAD PASSES TO THE EAST. MAY NOT LOSE ALL
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...WITH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION REFLECTING THE
COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR STILL IN PLACE...BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR
BY MONDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE RANCH LANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY
TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY...BUT SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE 60S MONDAY. MORE EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND DEW POINTS WILL RESPOND
UPWARD...TO THE POINT WHERE PATCHY FOG IS INDICATED ACROSS THE
AREA AND HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO MOVE BACK ASHORE MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
RANCH LANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE MID 50S IN THE LOWER VALLEY. /54/

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE LONG TERM FORECAST
WILL REMAIN A WELL DISTURBED PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL BE MARKED BY WESTERLY FLOW SLOWLY SHIFTING MORE TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS
WILL BE THE WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING
CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS THE WINDS ALOFT SHIFT MORE TO
THE SW...COASTAL TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN TO THE
SOUTH...FURTHER IMPROVING THE OVERRUNNING SETUP LOCALLY. LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY INTO NEW YEARS EVE NIGHT...WITH WET AND
DRIZZLY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEW YEARS FESTIVITIES AND INTO THE
FIRST DAY OF THE NEW YEAR. ON FRIDAY THE SFC TROUGH IS LIFTED
NORTHWARD...PUTTING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THE OFFSHORE FLOW SIDE OF
THE SFC THROUGH. THIS IS MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR LIGHT RAIN...SO
SOME DRIER CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY ARRIVE FOR THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS...PICKING UP THE SFC TROUGH AND EJECTING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF DRIER NORTH
WINDS...WITH A BRIEF CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY DRIES OUT FROM THE NORTH. /64/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE
AREA AND THEN SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET. /54/

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
INCREASE AROUND NOON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. WITH WINDS PARALLELING THE COAST...SEAS WILL HAVE NO
TROUBLE JUMPING UP TO 8 TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND
BECOMING MORE PROBABLE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL. /64/

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
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SHORT TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
LONG TERM FORECASTER... TOMASELLI



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