Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 212354 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
554 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Light to moderate southeast winds and MVFR/VFR
ceilings prevail across deep south Texas early this evening.
A cold front currently extending from Falcon Lake to east of BKS
line will continue to move south through this evening. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be possible along and just behind the
front. Expected IFR/MVFR ceilings to develop after sunset as the
front approaches the area. Some uncertainty continues with the
timing of the frontal passage in the Rio Grande Valley tonight.
The front is expected to move through MFE around 03z, then the
front may slow down as it approaches BRO around 12z. In the wake
of the cold front, low ceilings between 700 to 1200 feet are
expected overnight into most of Thursday with some light
rain/drizzle. Some slow improvement may be possible by late
afternoon Thursday.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): A stationary H5 Bermuda ridge
will face off with a large scale trough over the West on Friday,
which features smaller scale embedded short waves rotating through
with the flow. One such shortwave will move from the four corners
into the southern high plains on Friday, generating pressure falls
out into the Plains and maintaining a tighter gradient with high
pressure over the Gulf, all supporting a moderate southeast to south
inflow over the CWA on Friday and Saturday. The south inflow on
Saturday will support a rapid recovery in temperatures, with high
temps of 70s to lower 80s on Friday rebounding well into the 80s
and near 90 in spots on Saturday.

A late weekend cold front will move toward south Texas on Saturday,
trailing behind and south of the ejecting Plains short wave. The
front is forecast to push into the area late Saturday to Saturday
night, though with a lack of significant upper support and continued
southwest midlevel flow the front will lack punch. Surface winds
will shift to east or northeast on Sunday, and some energy moving
over in the southwest flow will trigger a few showers and an isolated
tstm initially, with with more of an overrunning pattern setting up
Sunday night into Monday. High pressure will shift east on Tuesday,
with winds veering to southeast and pushing the remnant boundary back
north. Temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will be milder, in other
words slightly cooler, and near normal, but will trend upward again
on Wednesday.

Now through Thursday night: Gulf seas remain agitated with TABS-K
buoy reporting 6 ft. Have maintained SCEC wording in the CWF and
held off on any SCA`s as trend should generally be for swells to
slowly subside overnight. Marine Weather Statement for fog in the
nearshore waters/Laguna remains in effect until 6pm, with on SPI
suggesting it is representative with VIS estimated at 1-3nm, at
least along the immediate coast. Cold front should move into the
coastal waters this evening, replacing moderate SE winds with
moderate NNE winds behind it. Front is expected to stall over the
outer Gulf waters, keeping the pressure gradient fairly weak.
Light-to-moderate onshore flow looks to redevelop later Thursday
night, but some uncertainty as to exactly when. No SCA`s expected
through the period unless seas run higher than forecast this

Friday through Monday night: High pressure over the Gulf will
interact with lower pressure to the west to produce moderate
southeast winds and upper end moderate seas. Periods of small
craft should exercise caution to low end small craft advisory
conditions will be possible with Gulf wave heights near seven
feet. Southeast winds will be slightly stronger on Saturday as the
gradient tightens up ahead of a cold front, and small craft will
also need to exercise caution on the Laguna Madre. A cold front
will then approach the waters Saturday night and Sunday, shifting
winds to east. The front will struggle to push through, but
moderate northeast winds are forecast to develop Sunday night
through Monday night. Moderate seas will continue behind the




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