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000
FXUS64 KBRO 291728 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. /53/

&&

.AVIATION...
SCTD CU HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE VALLEY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLR SKIES NOTED ELSEWHERE.  SIMILAR TO
THE PAST COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS...ADDITIONAL CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS
THE SEABREEZE MOVES ONSHORE.

BASED ON THIS AFTERNOON`S TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...THIS
MORNING`S MODIFIED KBRO SOUNDING...AS WELL AS SHORT-RANGE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...INDICATE VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
SUNSET (DESPITE WHAT CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR MAY SUGGEST).

ANY CU WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...WITH SOME PATCHY ST
AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES (DUE TO LOWER CIGS) MAY BE SEEN...
ESPECIALLY KMFE-KHBV.  ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT BY 30/1500
UTC...WITH MORE CU EXPECTED HEADING TOWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY SE-S WINDS AORUND 15 KTS. THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY.  /53/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...AS MENTIONED SIX HOURS AGO...ABOUT AS QUIET AS IT
GETS. EARLIER THOUGHTS OF POSSIBLE MVFR FEW-SCATTERED PRE-DAWN
HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED AT RGV AIRFIELDS...AND HAVE REMOVED FROM THE
EARLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW LOW VFR CLOUDS AROUND
14/15Z...RAISING TO HEIGHTS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IF THEY SURVIVE AT
ALL WELL ABOVE THE VFR RANGE AS MIXING HEIGHTS EXPAND TO 6 TO 8
THOUSAND FEET.

VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE TO WIND FORECAST...WITH EXCEPTION OF SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT AROUND 20-21Z AT KBRO WHERE GUSTS COULD EXCEED
20 KNOTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE DROPPING BACK QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

...SUMMER`S DOG DAYS KEEP ON BARKING...

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...READ ON A RECENT SOCIAL MEDIA
POST: LATHER...RINSE...REPEAT. SUCH IS THE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.
IF YOU`VE GOT FAMILY PLANS FOR THE BEACH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND
PROBABLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...THIS WILL BE THE
BEST OF THE BUNCH THIS SUMMER WHEN YOU COMBINE PURE
SUNSHINE...PLEASANTLY COOL SURF...AND LITTLE TO WORRY ABOUT IN THAT
SURF WITH LOW WAVES AND CURRENTS.

IN BRIEF: WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET. VERY DRY AIR MASS ENSURES
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS AS 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
LOCKS IN FROM THE TRANS-PECOS THROUGH THE RGV AND WESTERN GULF
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE LIGHTER SOUTHEAST WINDS FELT MONDAY
(COMPARED TO SUNDAY) WILL BE THE RULE BOTH TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH AFTERNOON GUSTINESS WILL ARRIVE AS THE SEA
BREEZE...ENHANCED BY NEARSHORE COOLER WATERS DUE TO
UPWELLING...PUSHES 22 TO 28 MPH GUSTS FROM EAST TO WEST (INLAND)
BEGINNING AROUND 2-3 PM OR SO.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX...NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
TWO WITH THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE MIXING LOWER DEWPOINTS TO THE
SURFACE FOR ALL EXCEPT AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 IN GENERAL. STILL
PLENTY HOT BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR JUST 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE THE
LATE JULY AVERAGE...WHICH RANGES FROM 95 EAST TO 100 WEST AS JULY
ENDS.  SO...95 TO 100 EAST AND 100 TO 105 WEST AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

FAIRLY LIGHT LATE NIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING LOWS TO DIP A
LITTLE...70-LOWER 70S RURAL AREAS TO THE MID-UPPER 70S URBAN
AREAS...AND AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...THE EXTENDED REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
OVER NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH LITTLE
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE FOR CONVECTION DETAILS ARE STILL IN QUESTION WITH SOME TYPE
OF WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE CWA VICINITY.

EARLY ON EXPECTED THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE FOUR
CORNERS EXTENDS WELL INTO SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN 3 TO
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS THE MUCH NOTED ANOMALOUS
EASTERN US TROUGH DEEPENS AS A MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATES
THROUGH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS TAKES
PLACE WED/THU WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY STRETCHING AND
TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS
AND THE FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND.
HPC DEPICTS THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CRP/BRO CWA BORDER. AS HAS BEEN DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF
MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE FRONT WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES.
DAILY CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
INTERACTION. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY BUT ANYTIME
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
NEEDED RAIN AND A BREAK FROM THE HEAT. THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW. AS NEXT WEEK
ARRIVES ANYTHING LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE GONE AS THE
EASTERN TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE GULF. A
WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A TYPICAL SEABREEZE TO KEEP A
SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL
LIKELY BE GOING DOWN. SOME RELIEF IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH THE BOUNDARY AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASING.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE BOATING/FISHING WEATHER DOESN`T GET MUCH BETTER WITH THE USUAL
DIURNAL TRENDS. LIGHT TO NEAR CALM MORNING WINDS BOTH TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY ALONG LAGUNA MADRE INCREASING TOWARD 15 KNOTS BY 2 PM OR
SO BEFORE DROPPING BACK AFTER SUNSET. MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP GULF
WINDS ABOUT WHERE THEY`VE BEEN...AVERAGING 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY
AND 10-15 KNOTS AT NIGHT.  NOTE THAT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OFFSHORE HAVE INCREASED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS AND ARE FINALLY
EDGING TOWARD NORMAL...MID 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ON
THURSDAY BECOMES LIGHT FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND.
SLIGHT SEAS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BECOME RATHER FLAT AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY THEN AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
LONG TERM FORECASTER... DRILLETTE
PSU/GRAPHICAST...BIRCHFIELD/MARTINEZ