Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 300611
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
211 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
WHILE BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WHICH MAY
BE A BIT MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHEN THERE
MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 06Z...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WITH RECENT RADAR TRENDS SEEMINGLY
CONFIRMING THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE CONSENSUS OF THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND FILL IN ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...HAVE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THIS GENERAL
TREND IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REACH ITS
PEAK COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WHERE THE BEST OVERALL
LIFT FROM THE FRONT AND THE DEEPEST OVERALL MOISTURE LOOK TO BE
CO-LOCATED.

CLEARING WILL OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HELP TO
MIX DOWN DRIER AIR AND STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY... TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH MAINLY ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER... LAKE PLAINS AND UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A STEP DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES...IN
THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S BY THE
AFTERNOON MAKING FOR A LESS HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PARK ITSELF OVER HUDSON BAY BEGINNING FRIDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE RESULT WILL BE SEVERAL NW-SE
ORIENTED JET STREAKS POINTING AT WESTERN NY AND MOVING OFF TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND RESULTANT
SURFACE BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION.  NONE OF THE FRONTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING TOGETHER WITH LAKE BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION.  THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
WITH A PEAK IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING EACH AFTERNOON WITH
ABUNDANT MIXING AND INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY RE-ESTABLISHED
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE LAKES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ALTERNATING
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FAIR WEATHER IN BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES...HOWEVER TIMING THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT IS
UNREALISTIC WITH MODELS DISPLAYING DISAGREEMENTS ON THE SPECIFIC
TIMING. THUS WILL STICK WITH GENERIC BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS FOR
THE TIME BEING. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ONLY
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST FROM HUDSON BAY ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK BETWEEN NOW AND THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY MORNING. ATTENDANT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA AS OF 06Z SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE
NUMEROUS AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BRIEF/LOCALIZED
REDUCTIONS IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS
ACTIVITY... OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON GIVING WAY
TO LIGHTER WINDS BY THURSDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR
ANY CONVECTION...WITH RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A STIFF WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER ON THURSDAY... WHEN WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THUS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WITH THIS UPDATE.

AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS WILL GRADUALLY RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN A MODEST
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
         FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LOZ045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH/JJR
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/CHURCH



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