Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 221957
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
357 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GIVE US
ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. CLEARING SKIES AND MORE SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL SETTLE ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE AND THE NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FINE EARLY FALL
WEATHER...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A DRIER
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT...LIFT AIDED BY UPSLOPE WINDS FROM THE
LAKE BASINS TO THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN.

NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE 5-8KFT INVERSION HAVE
COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW...850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C AND A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH TO MAINTAIN THIS LAYER OF CLOUDINESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...BUT AN ERODING BACK EDGE TO THE CLOUD SHIELD IS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
THIS CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...OFFERING A
GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT...THUS THE LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
DEWPOINT TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS WELL. A DRIER BUBBLE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 30S WAS CROSSING THE REGION DURING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY WILL BE A WARMER DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MORE SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO 850MB TEMPS
NEAR +6C TO +8C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD...WE OPEN WITH A
STOUT HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WITH A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
FEATURING RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TWO WEAK TROUGHS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST COAST RESPECTIVELY. MODELS ARE IN
SOLID AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN OVER THE COMING WEEK...AMPLIFYING THE WEST COAST RIDGE IN
RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM FORCING AND SPILLING IT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IN TURN CUTS OFF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS...CAUSING IT TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST TO THE MISSOURI VALLEY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME THE INVERTED TROUGH
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SLIDES NORTHEAST ALONG AND OFF THE EAST
COAST...LEAVING THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTACT AND IN FACT
LEADING TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF A MASSIVE RIDGE ENCOMPASSING THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION BY WEEK`S END...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE INSIGNIFICANT CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

THROUGHOUT THIS NATION-WIDE PATTERN CHANGE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WILL REMAIN PLANTED FIRMLY UNDERNEATH A SHIFTING BUT
PERSISTENT DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AT
LEAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S DURING THE DAY
WITH COOL...MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS FEATURING LOWS IN THE 40S INLAND
RANGING TO THE 50S NEAR THE LAKES. THE CLEAR COOL AUTUMN NIGHTS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF RADIATION FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL ON SATURDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF OF THE EAST
COAST...ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. AMPLIFYING RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL PRODUCE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA...POTENTIALLY
PUSHING A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT TO THE THRESHOLD OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND CONSEQUENTLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTS
INDICATE A PATTERN SHIFT LATER NEXT WEEK AS A MORE PROGRESSIVE...BUT
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN BRINGS A DEEP TROUGH TO THE CENTRAL U.S.
RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARM...BUT POSSIBLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAINTAINS WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION. A CLEARING LINE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS SLIPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD AND WILL CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME
VALLEY FOG WILL FORM AND MAY AFFECT KJHW WITH FOG LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED IFR IN SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEY FOG EACH OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO.

EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY...THEN WILL LINGER IN PLACE RIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH







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