Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 282327
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
627 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF RAIN NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO AMEND POP FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LULL IN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. INITIAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...MOISTURE FLUX AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED ROUND OF
PRECIP IS SET TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED POPS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN RAMP THEM BACK UP LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL RANGE AFTER 06Z IN THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BE...AND ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA AS SEVERAL
WEAK WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN CONTINUES MONDAY...THEN BEGINS TO TAPERS OFF LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT WILL COOL INTO
THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY PUSH
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN PUSH
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY THOUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES. MODELS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY MORNING LOWS...BUT TEMPS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP READINGS WARM ENOUGH THAT THE PRECIP
WILL BE ALL LIQUID.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY MVFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING...DETERIORATING TO IFR
OVERNIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR POSSIBLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR INDICATING RAIN WILL
RESUME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING HOURS
BECOMING IFR ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z MONDAY. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF IMPROVEMENT UNTIL AFTER 17Z MONDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION PUSHES EAST

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH.
&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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