Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 240530
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
130 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016
High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north
and help maintain dry conditions through Friday. Moisture may
increase over the weekend in an onshore flow.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
Surface high pressure centered along the Mid-Atlantic coast will
continue to ridge into the Carolinas and Georgia.
Mesoanalysis indicated deep convection and weak instability over
the CSRA with radar still showing a few showers. Will keep a
slight chance for showers over portions of the CSRA and Southern
Midlands until after midnight. Dry conditions should prevail
across the remainder of the forecast area.
As per guidance...will keep overnight lows in from the mid 60s
north to the lower 70s south.
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An upper ridge will remain anchored over the Southeastern states
for Wednesday and Thursday while high pressure over the Mid-
Atlantic ridges in at the surface. A relatively dry airmass will
remain in place with deeper moisture located west and south. The
lingering stalled frontal boundary south of the area is expected
to wash out on Wednesday. Continued to indicate a dry forecast
with high temperatures a few degrees above normal, in the lower
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper ridge will remain in place over the Southeastern states
for much of the long term period. Atmospheric moisture will
increase on Friday as surface high pressure over the Mid- Atlantic
coast pushes off to the northeast. There are significant
differences between the 12Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF late in the weekend
through early next week so have made few changes to the forecast
grids. An area of showers and storms east of the Leeward Islands
could impact the Southeastern states early next week, however
there is substantial uncertainty at this time. Temperatures
through the long term are forecast above normal with high
temperatures in the lower to mid 90s each day.
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions through the period.
Pressure ridge extending into the area from the Mid Atlantic
region. Mid level clouds over the area have diminished across the
area early this morning along with isolated showers in the CSRA.
Latest HRRR/lamp suggest low fog threat overnight. Radiation fog
scheme also indicates low threat with relatively low cross-over
temperatures. Will go with a VFR forecast through the morning.
Light winds becoming northeast to east/southeast during the
afternoon...10 knots or less. Expect scattered high level cumulus
as drier air spreads southwest from eastern North Carolina in the
afternoon...although possibly broken ceilings at times at least
early in the day.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Sunday.