Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 031814
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
214 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE LOW
WILL HOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY. REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED CONVECTION ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS.

MESO-ANALYSIS STILL INDICATED A STRONG PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...FROM 1.3 INCHES IN THE UPSTATE TO OVER 2
INCHES ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS TO THE
COASTAL PLAINS. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE HIGHEST POPS THERE.

THE MORE STEADY PRECIPITATION SHOULD PUSH EAST NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY SET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR LESS
TUESDAY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER WEDNESDAY. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND THE DRIER AIR WILL YIELD HOT
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN FEATURES A ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. ISOLATED
DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WITH THE LACK OF ANY UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
TO ENHANCE ANY MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT MAY INITIATE STORMS.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY AND
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. HIGHEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE
ON FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ACTING
ON THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. GFS INDICATING UPPER
RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE
LOWER 90S END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL TRACK SLOWLY
TO THE NE ACROSS SE GA OVERNIGHT. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MIDLANDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS. THE THREAT OF THUNDER IS LOW. MODELS INDICATE THE
SHOWERS MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND NEAR CALM
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS 08Z-15Z TIME-
FRAME. THUS HAVE INDICATED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...BECOMING VFR BY
04/15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$


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