Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 302333
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
733 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
MAIN LINE OF SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...EAST OF THE CWA. A FEW LINGERING STORMS REMAIN OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE CSRA THIS EVENING...AND THOSE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN THE ENTIRE AREA
SHOULD DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S TONIGHT. WITH THE AMOUNT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT
OCCURRED...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT IF SKIES
CLEAR OUT ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE
SURFACE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY HELP
TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MODEL PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTION APPEARS MORE
FAVORABLE ON THURSDAY WITH BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AS
MODEL PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.9 INCHES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO
APPEARS A BIT STRONGER ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE FORECAST NEAR NORMAL...IN THE LOWER
90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN US FRIDAY. THE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT
SOME LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT MAY SINK SOUTH CLOSER TO THE NC/SC BORDER LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT OVER THE AREA. EXPECT TO
SEE A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CAN NOT RULE OUT
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS...BUT LIMITING
FACTORY MAY BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 25 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET. WILL
NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF RESTRICTIONS AT CAE/CUB/DNL...BUT WILL
MENTION 5SM AT AGS/DNL. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
OUTSIDE OF ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AND
PERIODS OF MORNING FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



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