Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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271
FXUS62 KCAE 240813
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
413 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will be in the region through Monday.
Showers and thunderstorms will be associated with the front
especially just ahead of the feature this afternoon and
evening. Drier and cooler weather will follow the front by the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The slow moving front in the area supports numerous showers and
thunderstorms today and tonight. The high-resolution models
depict the greatest coverage this afternoon and evening.
The NAM and GFS indicate weak to moderate instability with
surface-based LI values -5 to -8. The GFS was most unstable but
may be overdone because of cloudiness. Still, heavy precipitation
loading associated with precipitable water peaking around 2.3
inches supports a possibility of damaging wind with the
thunderstorms. There should be less of a damaging hail threat
with high wet-bulb zero heights. Most of the guidance indicates
general rain totals through tonight of 0.5 to 1 inch. However,
based on the high precipitable water locally heavier rainfall
amounts and high rates may occur with localized flooding
possible. We held off posting a flash flood watch for now
because of forecast storm movement and relatively high flash
flood guidance of over 3 inches in 3 hours over much of the
area. Followed the guidance consensus for the temperature
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The models show the front lingering in the forecast area Sunday
and Sunday night with deeper moisture shifting east of the
area. The guidance consensus supports chance pops with the
greater values in the east section closer to deeper moisture.
The NAM and GFS display moderate instability in the southeast
section Sunday with surface-based LI values -6 to -7 supporting
a possibility of strong wind with thunderstorms. The temperature
guidance was close.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF depict some surface troughing lingering
Monday and there may be increased moisture and instability
associated with a sharpening upper trough Tuesday. However,
deeper moisture should be east of the area. The GFS and ECMWF
MOS have pops 20 percent or less. The models are consistent
with dry ridging dominating during the middle of the week with
some moisture increase in an onshore flow late in the week.
Expect below normal temperatures especially Tuesday and
Wednesday as indicated by the GFS and ECMWF MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Generally high confidence for VFR conditions at least into the
afternoon hours.

Southerly winds around 10 knots early this morning so fog should not
be an issue.

Latest surface obs and LAMP guidance suggest low threat for
stratus...so kept VFR early this morning. Scattered storms expected
to affect the TAF sites by early afternoon ahead of a slow moving
cold front. Strong gusty winds possible with storms in addition to
cig/vsby restrictions.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Convection and associated restrictions
will be possible late tonight through Sunday along the cold front.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



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