Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 112119
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
519 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND STALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A
SLOW MOVING UPPER IMPULSE WILL AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. A SURFACE FRONT BISECTING SOUTH CAROLINA WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTH THIS EVENING. HIGHEST PWAT (~2.00 INCHES) WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE COAST WITH A SECONDARY MAX ACROSS THE CSRA. LOW
CLOUDINESS SLOWLY ERODING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS
SOUTH WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION NORTH.

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD BECOME LESS LIKELY AS THE EVENING GOES
ON. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CSRA WITH LI
VALUES AROUND -5C TO -6C WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR. DRY AIR ALOFT
WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TO AID A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH BEST MOISTURE
TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ON SUNDAY UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST. SUNDAY APPEARS
TO BE MAINLY HOT AND DRY BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ASSOCIATED TROF WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE
INCREASING ON MONDAY AS GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST AND
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E CONUS. SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TUE AFTERNOON. SHOULD
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE EVENT...THE FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER FOR THU/FRI. GFS LINGERING
MOISTURE FOR CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK FOR NOW. OTHER
QUESTIONS IS HOW COOL WILL THE TEMPERATURES BE BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO THE 80S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS IN AGS...DNL AND OGB LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS BECAUSE OF
TIMING UNCERTAINTY. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED MID-LEVEL
DRYING WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS STRATUS AND
FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT. USED THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND
FORECASTED IFR CONDITIONS. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BRING
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER IN THE MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND STALL. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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