Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 301036
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
636 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
OUR REGION TODAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE
CLOSED OFF LOW SPINNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD PLUME OF MID AND UPPER MOISTURE
BEING FUNNELED NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR STILL BEING INDICATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHILE MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE
TRYING TO SPREAD INTO THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
LOW-COUNTRY. HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. HAVE GONE WITH GENERAL
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WHERE CURRENT RAINFALL CURRENTLY IS
OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO START OFF THE DAY...AND WITH THE EXPECTED
AREAS OF RAINFALL...WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES...WITH MOST NUMBERS SHOWING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S... AND HAVE TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
WHETHER IT WILL REGENERATE. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH
REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA...AS
IT COULD POSSIBLY REGENERATE OVER THE GULF AND DRIFT NORTH. FOR
NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL INDICATE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE N/CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO NR MOBILE. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PUMP PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. LOW LEVELS ARE BEGINNING TO MOISTEN UP AS
RAINFALL BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS.
EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE CURRENT PRECIP MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS
TAF SITES. SHOULD BE RAINING LIGHTLY AT ALL SITES BY 12Z. CURRENTLY
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND THROUGH
THE DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INDICATING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT...AND HAVE BROUGHT CEILINGS
DOWN INTO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN IFR LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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