Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 271906
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
306 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures
in the forecast through the end of the week. Afternoon
thunderstorms will be isolated the next few days...possible better
chance over the weekend into next week as moisture increases.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper level ridge remains over the area this afternoon with
with a weak lee-trough over the area and surface ridge offshore.
Convection will be limited by warm temperatures aloft and weak
instability. A high LFC and mid level cap are also in place. Any
convection will be isolated and mainly north and west of the
region around the upper ridge. Temperatures are on track to peak
in the upper 90s to lower 100s this afternoon. Heat indices should
remain just below the 110 degree advisory criteria. A low level
jet overnight should promote mixing with temperatures forecast in
the middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper level ridge will dominate Thursday with surface
low pressure developing in the Northeast. Large scale subsidence
will allow for another hot day with 850 mb temperatures near or
slightly warmer than previous days. Heat Index values will
approach 110 degrees, nearing heat advisory criteria. The chance
for showers and thunderstorms remains low with the ridge aloft
and a drier atmosphere. PWAT values will range from 1.25 to 1.5
inches. A tightening pressure gradient will allow for breezy
conditions.

The ridge will weaken Friday as an upper trough moves eastward.
A surface trough may move into the region and stall which may
trigger some convection as a few shortwaves support development.
Instability remains weak however. Temperatures both
maximum/minimum should remain above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The upper ridge continues to weaken in the mid-term, which
supports a general increase in pops as shortwaves move over the
region and lee-side troughing promotes convergence. Moisture and
the chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase late this
weekend into early next week as surface high pressure shifts
eastward and a backdoor front moves into the mid-Atlantic States.
The synoptic pattern supports above normal temperatures with highs
in the mid/upper 90s and overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions through the TAF period.

18Z satellite imagery showing cumulus field across the area with
the highest concentration in the CSRA. A mid level cap and
relatively very warm airmass should restrict thunderstorm
development through the afternoon and evening. Tonight, another
low level jet around 25 knots will develop and with the warm
temperatures, fog is not expected. Winds will continue out of the
south through this evening between 8 and 10 knots and will become
light and variable tonight. VFR conditions will prevail on
Thursday with a slightly drier airmass over the region.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low potential for restrictions in
afternoon and evening convection each day.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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