Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 190315
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1015 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of high pressure will be over the Carolinas tonight
and Thursday. A warm front will move into the area Thursday
night and Friday, then stall for the weekend. A strong area of
low pressure will move toward the region on Sunday and Monday.
High pressure will build back in for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Ridging will move into the area behind the front overnight.
Expect mostly clear to party cloudy skies. Cooler temperatures
may help support fog early Thursday morning, but models show a
20 knot low level jet, so confidence is not high enough to
include in the forecast at this time. Overnight lows much cooler
the than past few nights, in the 40s for most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday...A small area of high pressure will be parked over the
region during the day. Temps will be cooler than Wednesday, but
still above normal with the lower 60s north to near 70 in the
CSRA. High clouds will start to approach from the west late in
the day as a an area of low pressure associated with a warm
front heads into the southeast.

Thursday night...Clouds and moisture will rapidly increase
Thursday evening, with rain reaching the CSRA around midnight or
shortly thereafter. The area of rain will continue
northeastward, with showers likely effecting all areas during
the overnight. Since the system will be weakening with time, the
showers will be lighter overnight, and thunder seems unlikely
with limited to no surface instability. Temps will probably hang
in the 50s most places all night.

Friday...The synoptic support will continue to move rapidly
northeast during the day, so the chances of rain will decrease.
However, with the front stalling out nearby and low level
moisture remaining plentiful, there will still be some scattered
showers lingering all day. Temperatures will be back on the
increase as well with mid 60s north to mid 70s south, although
cloud cover will prevent another run at record temps.

Friday night...The next strong jet streak in the series will
begin approaching from the southwest. Clouds will be plentiful,
and some moderate low level frontogenesis is expected to take
shape across the midlands and CSRA, supporting a chance for
showers, increasing during the overnight.

Saturday...A combination of strong jet energy, PWs increasing to
1.5 inches+, continued low level forcing, and some increase in
low level instability will support showers and thunderstorms for
most, if not all, of the CWA. It`s too early to pin down the
exact location of the heaviest rain, but we could see locally 2
inches in any convection that develops. Boundary layer temps
will be warm, but clouds and showers should keep most places in
the 60s during the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An anomalously deep layered area of low pressure will approach
from the west on Sunday into Monday. More showers and
thunderstorms are expected, and with the expected shear profiles
in place Sunday afternoon and evening, some severe weather is
possible, especially in the CSRA where low level instability
should be the greatest. Timing is still a bit iffy this far out,
but the system bears watching.

By Monday, the strong surface low will be rolling its way
through the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. The main axis of
instability and strongest shear will have moved northeast of the
area by Monday morning, but significant cyclonic curvature and
mid level vorticity advection will still support showers across
the area. We will be on the backside of the main surface low,
but the upper level trof will still be to the west, so only
modest cooling is expected.

High pressure will build back in on Tuesday, but it will be of
Pacific origin, so temps will still be no colder than near
normal. As the high moves into the western Atlantic on
Wednesday, milder southwesterly flow will return.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level ridge and surface high pressure will build across the
region tonight into Thursday. VFR conditions should prevail for the
TAF period with high level clouds remaining across the region. Could
see mid level clouds increasing Thursday afternoon as moisture
increases ahead of an approaching warm front.

Light and variable winds overnight will become northeast
Thursday morning then veer southeast during the afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A warm front crossing the area
Thursday night into Friday will bring a chance for showers.
More showers...and associated restrictions...are likely
Saturday through Monday as a low pressure system crosses the
region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record high temperature of 80 degrees was set at Columbia
Metro Airport today. This breaks the old record of 77 last set
in 1952.

A record high temperature was also set at Augusta Bush Field
today with a temperatures of 81 degrees. This break the old
record of 80 set in 1928.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...


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