Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 011604
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1204 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will be just off the southeast coast through
Tuesday. A pressure ridge will move eastward and extend along the
appalachians Tuesday. Later in the week Hurricane Matthew is
forecast to be off the southeast coast. Please see the latest
advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Satellite trends and the models indicate the dry air mass will
remain in the forecast area through tonight. The front and
associated moisture will remain off the coast. The pressure
gradient in the forecast area will remain weak resulting in light
wind. Leaned toward the higher maximum temperature guidance today
because of the recent bias. Favored the lower minimum temperature
guidance tonight because of strong net radiational cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The models maintain a dry air mass in the forecast area through
Monday with ridging west of the area and a stationary front off
the southeast coast. The pressure gradient will remain weak and
wind should be light. The recent bias favors the higher maximum
temperature guidance. Followed the consensus for the low
temperature forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF show high pressure ridging into the forecast area
from the north with a stationary front lingering off the southeast
coast early in the medium-range period. The models depict deep
moisture remaining east of the forecast area. There has been
inconsistency with moisture during the rest of the period with
moisture possibly spreading well inland in an onshore flow between
Hurricane Matthew and ridging north of the area. The GFS ensemble
mean plus an average of the GFS, ECMWF, and EKD MOS support slight
chance pops. Please see the latest advisory on Matthew from the
National Hurricane Center.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cool and dry airmass will remain across the region through
Saturday. Generally clear skies through the period for much of the
period with VFR conditions. Light and variable winds become
southwest 5 to 10 knots by 16Z. Light winds or near calm overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected at
this time.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



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