Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 030803
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
303 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO OUR
REGION TODAY BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT...WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING UP INTO THE MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA SW INTO THE SW CONUS. SURFACE HIGH CENTER BUILDING EAST INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
BACK DOOR FRONT NOTED BY DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WIND SHIFT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL FORECAST AREA...AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA TODAY. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL
LEAD TO SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
OVER OUR REGION. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING SOME LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE LIGHT PATCHY PRECIP
DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING...AND
GENERALLY TRENDING TOWARDS SHIFTING BACK TO OUR NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BUT NONETHELESS
RESULT IN A WEAK WEDGE DEVELOPING OVER OUR REGION TODAY...WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY FALLING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN STEADY LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS FLORIDA...WITH UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING WELL TO OUR WEST. WEDGE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT TO
BEGIN CREEPING NORTH TONIGHT...BUT WILL EXPECT WEAK WEDGE TO REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WILL EXPECT STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF
FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE. WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS WEDNESDAY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS COULD REACH 80 CENTRAL AND SOUTH FA...WHICH
WOULD BE FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WED NT DUE TO SW FLOW
ALOFT...NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT.  BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER
ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AND
INDICATES THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE CANADIAN HIGH
CENTER BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THU NT INTO FRI. AIR MASS BEHIND
FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED THU NT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO SPECIFICS...SEVERELY
REDUCING CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT HPC
GUIDANCE...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GOING TO RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER WEDGE WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING.

VFR CEILINGS TO START THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR BY
08Z AND EVENTUALLY TO IFR BY AROUND 12Z AND REMAIN RESTRICTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN
AND LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO IFR ARE EXPECTED BY 15Z ALL
TERMINALS...THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT AGS/DNL/OGB AS IT COULD
OCCUR A LITTLE LATER THERE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DETERIORATED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE STALL FRONT TO THE SOUTH BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DROP FURTHER TO LIFR WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRENGTHENING FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE LIKELY
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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