Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 060536
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
136 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO SPIN
OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE NC/SC
BORDER...WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE NC COAST TONIGHT. THOUGH
INSTABILITY AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS DECREASED EARLY
TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO
PROVIDE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS TONIGHT...MAINLY NE
FORECAST AREA BASED ON A PREPONDERANCE OF THE LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA ON FRIDAY LIFTING OVER THE
OUTER BANKS OF NC BUT LINGERING 500MB COLD POOL AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS OUT TO SEA WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND SOME
SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE COOL IN THE LOWER 50S BUT WILL WARM A
BIT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WEAKENS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PROVIDING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT DIURNAL
CONVECTION MID WEEK. A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AND WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
ENTERING THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY.

VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW
COULD IMPACT THE COLUMBIA AREA TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT
09Z...HOWEVER ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT BROKEN VFR LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS...SO
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT KCAE/KCUB/KOGB FROM 18-23Z...BUT POTENTIAL
FOR ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IS MINIMAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$


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