Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 281516
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1116 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DISSIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND INLAND OF THE COAST. CAE WSR-
88D SHOWS NO RETURNS WITH AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR UPSTATE AND MOUNTAINS OF NC. CUMULUS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING WITH
ALL ACTIVITY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERED. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES. A MOIST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP PWAT IN THE
1.5 TO 1.70 INCH RANGE INTO THE EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE CSRA AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER.
WENT WITH PERSISTENCE AND CONSENSUS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RISING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND PWAT AT OR
BELOW ONE INCH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DEEPER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 30-50
PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOWER TODAY
SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF TAFS. EXPECT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BASES AROUND 4 KFT.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR
LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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