Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211105

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
505 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 207 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Precip chances pick up later this afternoon as a strong upper level
trough of low pressure moves east across the Central and Southern
Rockies into the Western High Plains early in the period. As the
southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains intensifies
ahead of the approaching system, sufficient lift associated with a
stalled frontal boundary stretched across southwest into central
Kansas may provide a focus for potential light drizzle/fog
development toward daybreak this morning. Latest observations across
northwest and north central Kansas are already beginning to indicate
low level stratus/fog development north of the frontal boundary.

Short range models indicate the upper level low deepning as it
pushes eastward across the high plains of western Kansas. In
response, surface low pressure across southeast Colorado and
Northeast New Mexico will strengthen as it shifts east-northeast
into eastern Kansas through late Sunday night creating an extremely
tight pressure gradient across western Kansas. Meanwhile, snow
development is likely across more northern portions of western
Kansas late this afternoon into Sunday night in an axis of post-
frontal H7 frontogentic forcing. Considering the projected track
of this system, the highest impact of snow and blowing snow will
be felt across west central into central Kansas near and along the
I-70 corridor. QPF signals suggest upward of 1 to 3 inches of
snow possible across the area in question with locally higher
amounts not out of the question. Exceptionally strong north winds
will create hazardous conditions due to blowing snow leading to
reduced visibility and drifting across east-west roads and

Colder air surging southward into far western Kansas behind a
stalled frontal boundary will result in highs only reaching the
30s(F) in west central Kansas this afternoon. Highs in the 40s(F)
and the 50s(F) are likely further southeast ahead of the boundary.
Look for lows down into the 20s(F) tonight as colder air spreads
southward into western Kansas behind a cold front advancing
across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 243 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Snow and blowing snow conditions may linger across central Kansas
early Monday initially, but precip chances will quickly dwindle
through Monday afternoon as a strong upper level trough transitions
further east across the Central Plains. The drier pattern will
continue through at least Thursday as ridging aloft builds across
the Intermountain West early in the period and moves out into the
Central Plains through the middle part of the week. A cold air
mass will be slow to erode Monday with medium range models showing
H85 temperatures remaining below 0C across central and portions
of southwest Kansas. Dependent on how quickly cloud cover
diminishes through the day, should see highs pushing the 40s(F)
across much of the area with the 30s(F) still a possibility in
central Kansas. A gradual warming trend can then be expected
through Thursday as the aforementioned ridging aloft moves out
into the Central Plains. This should push temperatures well above
normal by the middle part of the week with highs possibly reaching
the 60s(F).


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 502 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Low level stratus will persist across central and much of southwest
Kansas through this evening resulting in primarily IFR cigs in the
vicinity of KHYS, KGCK, and KDDC. KLBL may see brief periods of IFR
cigs through early afternoon. Snow and strong north winds are
expected to develop late this afternoon into tonight as a strong
storm system moves out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western
High Plains. Blowing snow conditions are likely in the vicinity of
KHYS and possibly KGCK and KDDC resulting in MVFR/IFR vsbys.
Variable winds 5 to 15kt will persist through this afternoon as a
frontal boundary remains near stationary from southwest Kansas
northeast into northwest Missouri. Strong northwest winds are
expected to develop late this afternoon through tonight as a
strong cold front pushes through western Kansas. Sustained wind
speeds of 25 to 40kt are likely with gusts up to 45kt by early
Monday morning.


DDC  49  24  45  22 /  40  40  20   0
GCK  38  23  43  20 /  70  70  10   0
EHA  46  21  47  21 /  50  30   0   0
LBL  51  24  48  20 /  30  40   0   0
HYS  40  26  39  21 /  70  80  50   0
P28  58  33  47  24 /  10  10  10   0


Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Monday for



LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.