327
FXUS63 KDDC 062031
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
331 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms expected east of Highway 283 this
afternoon into the evening hours.

- Hail around 2 inches and winds over 70 mph will be the main
concern with the highest tornado threat across south central Kansas

- Critical Fire weather conditions are expected west of highway 283
this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon

- A mainly dry weather pattern will develop Monday evening and
persist for several days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Mesoscale Update...

Storms that formed along the dry line earlier this afternoon are
struggling to rotate and maintain themselves. This may be the
result of a backing wind profile at mid levels that causes an
unfavorable hodograph. The shear profile improves to the
southeast, especially along the Oklahoma state line in Barber
county where there is less mid level backing. The storms over
south central Kansas between 3 and 6 pm will have stronger 0-1
km SRH up to 150-200 m2/s2, which would be favorable for
tornadoes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Strong to severe storms are expected late this afternoon into this
evening as a strong storm system moves through the area. A dryline
has set up across western Kansas with a cold front overtaking this
feature this afternoon.  Dewpoints ahead of these features will be
above 60F with south southeast winds funneling in increased
moisture. Cape values above 2000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear above 30
knots will support any storm that forms to quickly become severe.
Hail around 2 inches and winds over 70 mph will be the main concern.
A line of storms have already developed across our northern zones
and should make it out of the area within the next few hours. Storms
farther south will develop by 21Z generally east of Highway 283. Low
level Helicity will be the highest across south central Kansas late
this afternoon into this evening. This is where the highest chance
of a tornado to form. Storms will then trek northeast and into
central Kansas by early this evening and move out of the DDC.  In
addition to the storms, low RH and strong westerly winds will be
felt behind the dryline. A Red Flag is in effect to account of this
increase in fire danger. Skies become mostly clear as the storms
move out of the area and continue into tomorrow.  A few mid level
clouds are expected tomorrow afternoon into the first part of
tomorrow night before becoming mostly clear by sunrise Wednesday.
Breezy westerly winds are expected through tomorrow, shifting to
more of a northerly direction tomorrow night.  Low RHs are also
expected tomorrow afternoon west of Highway 283.  Currently a Fire
Weather Watch is issued west of this area and will probably be
upgraded to a Red Flag Warning after this initial warning is
expired. As for temperatures, lows tonight will dip into the mid
40s.  Above normal temperatures are expected tomorrow due to the
downslope winds with highs ranging from the mid 70s across our
northern zones with around 80 to low 80s elsewhere. Lows tomorrow
night look to range from around 40 degrees across far western Kansas
to low 50s across south central Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

A quiet pattern emerges in the long term forecast.  Mostly clear
skies and dry conditions are expected through the work week with
light northerly winds.  There may be a weak disturbance that moves
through the area this weekend.  But as of now, no precipitation is
depicted by the NBM. Highs throughout the long term will generally
be in the upper 60s to mid 70s through Friday then upper 70s to low
80s this weekend. Lows will generally be in the 40s with a few low
50s possible across south central Kansas by this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 450 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Southeasterly moist upslope surface winds This Morning will
maintain a stratus deck firmly in the IFR category as far east
as Garden City, and perhaps Liberal. Most guidance does indicate
visibility is leaning to remain above the LIFR category, but if
visibility were to drop to one half mile or less  still the
favored area would be the DDC terminal between 10 and 13z, as
the NBM forecasts mean visibility less than one half mile over
south central Kansas. The ceilings will give way to a dryline in
the mid morning hours, which could become the focus for numerous
severe thunderstorms as early as the 15 and 18z timeframe
anywhere form GCK to HYS, and spreading east in a broken line
through mid afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Widespread red flag meteorological conditions are expected each
of the next 2 days across the western half of the area. The
area hasnt been cleared of dry fuels for the season, however
there may be some variability in the greenness withing the
highlighted region. The red flag warning was expanded for all
areas along the highway 23 corridor This Afternoon, with a areal
matching Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday. Areas along the
highway 283 corridor and eastward are considered too green to
continue warnings for the time being.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Finch
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99