Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 300445 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1145 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017
06 UTC TAF Cycle
Concerns---Minor crosswinds on north-south oriented runways.
Otherwise, VFR with south flow late in the TAF cycle.
VFR will continue through the entire 06 UTC TAF cycle as an upper
level low slowly pulls away from the region. Low level moisture
beneath this feature will pivot around and may graze the Metroplex
TAF sites through the overnight hours into Thursday morning.
Based on latest observations and trends, occasional VFR cigs
around FL080-FL100 will be possible at the Metroplex before this
low level moisture is scoured out. Waco should experience
predominantly high clouds throughout the entire TAF cycle.
Outside of perhaps a few cumulus puffs and high clouds, there
should not be any operationally significant restrictions to the
sky. Breezy northwest winds across area terminals will yield a
light crosswind, but overall impacts should be negligible.
Northwest winds will shift to the west by mid-morning Thursday
before becoming southwesterly Thursday evening when a return to
south flow will be possible. These winds will shift in response to
the approach of the next upper trough which will bring in
additional upper level clouds.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/
An upper low continues its steady eastward march across the
Southern Plains this afternoon, bringing showers and storms to the
Upper Texas and Louisiana coastal areas. We are expecting
additional development this afternoon and evening, but at this
time it looks like activity may initiate just east of the CWA
where the strongest forcing exists. However, slight chance POPs
will be kept from Paris to Palestine where a brief storm may occur
before moving east of the forecast area.
The upper low will continue east tonight, dragging a cold front
southeastward through the area. The front should sweep southeast
through the entire area by Thursday morning, bringing cooler and
drier air to the region. We will quickly switch back to return
flow Thursday night and Friday as the next upper level storm
system approaches from the northwest. This system is progged to
become quasi-stationary over New Mexico or far West Texas Saturday
and Sunday. This will place North and Central Texas in a
favorable location for moisture and lift, possibly leading to
multiple rounds of precipitation.
Wind shear may be a bit of a question when considering the
intensity of the thunderstorms, but if instability is good enough
to overcome questionable shear, severe weather may still be
possible. Also, due to the prolonged period of the system hanging
west of the forecast area, locally heavy rainfall may be another
possibility. We are still a few days out, so hopefully these
forecast parameters become better realized as we head into the end
of the workweek.
This system will move east of the area on Monday, bringing an end
to precipitation. Tuesday looks dry at this time, then a quick
moving shortwave may bring a brief round of storms around the
middle of next week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 52 73 54 85 61 / 5 5 5 0 0
Waco 51 77 53 84 62 / 5 5 5 0 0
Paris 50 65 47 80 56 / 10 10 10 5 5
Denton 50 71 49 83 58 / 5 5 5 0 0
McKinney 50 69 48 81 57 / 10 10 5 0 0
Dallas 53 73 54 84 62 / 10 10 5 0 0
Terrell 51 71 50 82 59 / 10 10 5 0 0
Corsicana 51 73 54 84 60 / 10 10 5 0 0
Temple 50 77 54 84 62 / 5 5 5 0 0
Mineral Wells 48 74 50 88 57 / 5 5 5 0 0