Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 202109
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
309 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Water vapor imagery shows the large upper low spinning across much
of Texas this afternoon with moisture continuing to stream
northward across much of East Texas. Drier air has moved in across
West Texas where skies are mostly sunny. A few higher based
cumulus clouds are noted on visible satellite imagery across West
Texas associated with the colder temperatures aloft but no
additional precipitation is expected tonight. The ongoing area of
light rain across the far eastern counties will continue to slowly
move east through the remainder of the day and should end by early
evening.

Our main concern tonight will be the potential for areas of fog to
develop...especially across our eastern counties. With the upper
low slow to move eastward...a surface trough still remains off to
our west. This keeps moist southerly flow in place across the
region. As temperatures cool tonight under thinning cloud
cover with wet ground...areas of fog are likely to develop. This
is most likely to happen across the eastern half of the CWA where
drier air will be slower to move in from the west. The surface
trough will move east of the area Tuesday morning allowing much
drier air to filter into the region.

The remainder of the forecast looks very warm and dry. Mid level
ridging will pass overhead Tuesday through Thursday allowing
temperatures to climb into the mid 70s on Tuesday and lower 80s on
Wednesday. By Thursday...a strong shortwave trough will be
approaching the Central Plains. This will result in a deepening
surface cyclone across Kansas. Wind fields will veer around to the
south-southwest with a dryline advancing eastward through the
afternoon. Deep vertical mixing will result in gusty southwest
winds and temperatures warming well into the 80s and possibly as
high as 90 degrees across some of our western counties. We will
continue to monitor this as it could have some fire weather
impacts by late Thursday afternoon/evening.

Otherwise...a weak front will slide through the region on Friday
cooling temperatures back down into the 60s and lower 70s. A
reinforcing shot of cooler air will filter into the region on
Saturday. At this time...no precipitation is expected either day.
Rain chances may increase slightly as we head into early next week
but no major systems appear to approach the region over the next 7
days.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1225 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/
/18Z TAFs/

By midday, ceilings had lifted into the MVFR category. Although
south winds will prevail at the surface, veering flow within the
cloud-bearing layer will help to further lift and erode the deck
this afternoon. The diffuse back edge will gradually advance
eastward, and skies will clear along the I-35 corridor before
sunset.

As the winds subside this evening, and surface temperatures
rapidly cool under the clear skies, some shallow fog will develop.
This may be more effective at FTW/AFW/GKY than at the urban
islands of DFW and DAL. A light lake breeze at Waco may accelerate
the process there. A cold front will arrive before daybreak, but
the light winds and weak dry advection behind it will delay the
improvement in visibility. Regardless, the shallow layer of fog
should quickly improve after sunrise. Clear skies with light
northwest flow will prevail Tuesday and Tuesday night.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    52  75  49  80  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                52  75  47  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               53  72  48  76  53 /  20   5   0   0   0
Denton              49  75  45  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            50  74  46  78  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              52  75  50  80  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             52  75  48  78  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           53  74  50  79  55 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              52  76  47  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       49  76  44  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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