Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 312019
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
319 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER
THESE TEMPS ARE STILL NEAR 100 IN MANY AREAS WEST OF I-35...AND
THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THIS REGION IS ALSO SUFFICIENT TO
YIELD LOW AMOUNTS OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...MAINLY WEST OF I-35. THE AIRMASS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
MICROBURSTS AS THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL PROMOTE STRONG SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE PRIME CANDIDATES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS DUE TO
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. THE COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE
LOW THIS EVENING SO POPS WILL STAY AT 10-20 PERCENT WEST OF I-35.

OTHERWISE DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
INFILTRATE THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
INTO THE 50S BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT
AND NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE LOWER
HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR MORE TOLERABLE CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES ACTUALLY SHOULD BE LOWER THAN THE AIR TEMP. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO AID IN NOCTURNAL COOLING...AND LOW
TEMPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL.

THE WESTERN ZONES WILL REMAIN SITUATED IN AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DIVERGENT WIND ALOFT. THUS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR THERE TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CHANCE MAY INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY UPSTREAM IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DIRECT ANY OF THIS CONVECTION SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA...AND WHILE THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MAY BE DRY AND
STABLE...INDICATIONS FROM SEVERAL MODELS ARE THAT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THUS SOME SHOWERS
OR WEAK STORMS MAY WANDER INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AS WEAK
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 SUNDAY MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF MORNING
ELEVATED CONVECTION...THIS MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
TO COOL HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S NORTH TO AROUND 100 SOUTH.

BY MONDAY THE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
BRING THE HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT SHIFTED OFF TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE
BUILDING BACK INTO AND OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS HOT AND DRY. HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO
THE 100-105 RANGE.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1239 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KACT AND POSSIBLY THE
DFW METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE TAF REPRESENTS VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WILL BE
MONITORING FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AROUND KACT AND POSSIBLY IN THE DFW METROPLEX. KACT HAS
BETTER CHANCES FOR BEING AFFECTED BY A STORM AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS HIGHER DUE TO GREATER INSTABILITY
VALUES. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF. MOST OF ANY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
METROPLEX. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
EASTERLY THIS EVENING IN THE METROPLEX AND AT KACT SATURDAY
MORNING. A FEW- SCT CUMULUS FIELD WITH BASES BETWEEN 5-10 KFT WILL
RETURN THIS AFTERNOON.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  98  76  98  78 /   5   5  10  10   5
WACO, TX              73  98  72 100  75 /  10   5   5   5   0
PARIS, TX             69  96  71  97  73 /   5   0   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            71  96  71  97  74 /  10  10  10  20   5
MCKINNEY, TX          70  96  72  96  75 /   5   5   5  10   5
DALLAS, TX            77  98  77  99  79 /   5   5   5  10   5
TERRELL, TX           70  98  72  98  75 /   5   0   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         72  99  72  99  76 /   5   0   5   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            71  99  71  99  74 /  10  10   5   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  96  71  97  73 /  20  10  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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