Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 202359
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
559 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.AVIATION...
There should be no major weather impacts to aviation across North
Texas through tonight with VFR conditions and south to southwest
low level flow. VFR conditions will continue Saturday but
scattered showers and a few storms will be possible.

A shortwave will lift across South Texas this evening and produce
showers and thunderstorms which will remain well southeast of
Waco. A stronger upper disturbance will approach from the west
overnight bringing increasing mid and upper level moisture and a
slight increase in low level moisture as surface winds become more
southerly. Some patchy fog may develop across the south/southeast
zones overnight but should not have any immediate impacts at any
of the TAF sites. The upper level system will translate across the
region Saturday/Saturday night and bring a chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms. The best instability and moisture will
reside generally east of the Interstate 35 corridor. Therefore,
we will only mention showers in the vicinity of all TAF sites from
late morning through the afternoon. All precipitation will move
into East Texas early Sunday morning and much drier air will move
in behind a Pacific cold front.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/
A shortwave near Corpus Christi this afternoon will move
northeastern across southeast Texas this evening and into
Louisiana overnight. Showers and thunderstorms have developed over
the Texas Coastal Bend into Southeast Texas along a weak frontal
boundary. Most of this activity will remain southeast of the
forecast area, but a few storms could brush the southeastern zones
this evening. Thus have left a mention of isolated showers and
thunderstorms for the 6 pm to midnight period areas along in those
counties. At least some patchy fog is expected to develop
overnight across areas mainly southeast of a Temple to Emory line.
The fog may end up be more widespread and could extend a little
more to the northwest, but for now will leave it as is. Lows
tonight will range from the mid 40s northwest to the mid 50s
southeast.

South to southwesterly winds will increase in speed Saturday as
lee side cyclogenesis occurs thanks to a strong jet streak that
will overspread the Southern Plains. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will increase area wide Saturday and Saturday night as an
upper level low moves out from northern New Mexico across the
Texas Panhandle and southern Oklahoma. Given the forecast
soundings, some strong thunderstorms will be possible Saturday
afternoon and evening with some downbursts possible. The upper
level low will move into Arkansas by midday Sunday. Meanwhile a
Pacific cold front will move through the region Saturday night and
Sunday morning. Chances of some rain showers will linger through
early Sunday afternoon across the northeastern zones.

In the wake of the cold front expect gusty northwesterly winds
Sunday. These strong winds along with minimum relative humidities
in the 20s to mid 30s and dry/dead vegetation may lead to elevated
fire weather conditions Sunday. After highs in the upper 60s to
mid 70s Saturday, highs on Sunday will only reach the 60s.
Dry weather is expected for the rest of the week. Temperatures
will moderate during the early part of next week as southerly
winds return. Highs will be in the 60s to lower 70s Monday and
upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday. Another cold front will move through
the region Tuesday night. No rain is expected with this system,
but it will bring temperatures down to near seasonal normals for
the rest of the week.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    50  71  49  64  42 /   5  30  40  10   0
Waco                48  72  50  65  40 /   5  30  30   5   0
Paris               49  68  47  61  39 /   5  30  50  30   0
Denton              47  70  47  63  38 /   5  30  40  10   0
McKinney            48  69  48  62  38 /   5  30  40  20   0
Dallas              52  71  49  64  42 /   5  30  40  10   0
Terrell             51  70  48  65  40 /   5  30  40  20   0
Corsicana           53  72  49  65  42 /   5  40  40  10   0
Temple              50  72  50  65  41 /   5  30  30   5   0
Mineral Wells       46  71  47  63  38 /   5  30  30   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

79/25



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