Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 311545 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1045 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Morning surface analysis showed a well defined outflow boundary
moving through southern Oklahoma and into North Texas. Convergence
along this boundary has increased and scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms have developed over the last hour. The
environment across North Texas is moderately unstable with the 12Z
FWD sounding indicating steep 700-500mb lapse rates although low
level wind fields are fairly weak. Latest RAP guidance along with
water vapor imagery suggest that a weak shortwave may have rotated
around the upper low over the southwest U.S. and is moving across
northwest TX. There is a pocket of slightly enhanced mid and upper
level winds moving through the area which may be providing some
larger scale forcing. Thunderstorms this morning into early
afternoon will have some potential to become severe...although
they should remain multi-cellular in nature posing mainly a small
hail and gusty wind threat.

The bigger threat will quickly become flash flooding as rich low
level moisture is already in place and a moistening of the
atmosphere aloft continues through tonight. PW values around 1.5
inches this morning will approach 1.8-1.9 inches overnight
tonight. Precipitation efficiency is expected to increase later
today and tonight as the atmosphere becomes more tropical in
nature. Some of our northwest counties have already received heavy
rainfall and with continued rain chances through the week...a
Flash Flood Watch will be issued for a good chunk of the North and
Central TX through tomorrow night. This will likely be expanded in
area and time with subsequent forecast issuances.



/ISSUED 701 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/
A narrow strip of IFR ceilings has worked its way north into
southern portions of the DFW area during the past hour. Clouds
should begin to erode an hour or so after sunrise, but the current
feeling is that they may intermittently impact local TAF sites
before doing so. The 12z issuance has therefore included a tempo
through 14Z of IFR cigs.

The focus will shift to the possibility of convection this
afternoon as an upper level low pressure area over the southwest
CONUS approaches the region. With a warm and unstable airmass in
place, scattered showers and storms will develop during the peak
heating hours this afternoon. Due to the scattered nature of
storms, the forecast will include VCTS with no prevailing or
tempo at this time.

Another round of convection will likely be more organized in
nature as it approaches in the form of an MCS overnight and
traverses the area early Wednesday morning. TAFs will indicate
prevailing SHRA with VCTS, but will probably need refining with
the inclusion of a TEMPO for lower category conditions if and when
the line of storms materializes and a more detailed ETA becomes



An upper level low currently over southwest Arizona will be the
main weather maker for the the rest of the work week and through
the weekend. This system will move east into West Texas Wednesday
night and into Central Texas Thursday. All of the main models
indicate that the upper low will then meander across Central
Texas Thursday night through Saturday before eventually sinking
south. The GFS indicates that the low will sink south and then
southeast off the lower Texas coast by Monday while the ECMWF
keeps the system over South Texas through Monday Night and
opens it up to an upper level trough Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Weak Upper level ridging should start to build in from the west
during the early part of next week.

A shortwave over southwest Texas this morning will move northeast
across North and Central Texas today. Lift associated with this
system along with increasing low level moisture will result in
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from southwest to
northeast today, especially along and west of the I-35 corridor.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
from the Texas Panhandle northeast across Oklahoma. This activity
will move southeast into North Texas this evening and tonight.
Some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly across
the northwestern zones. Locally heavy rain is also expected with
these storms.

As the upper level low sits across Central Texas Wednesday
through Saturday, expect several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. With increasing precipitable water values and
saturated or nearly saturated grounds from recent rainfall, the
potential for flash flooding will increase. A Flash Flood Watch
will likely be needed for parts, if not all, of North and Central
Texas for the Wednesday through Friday period. The best rain
chances should start to shift southward Saturday night and
Sunday but some low chances will continue across Central Texas
into Monday.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    84  68  81  67  79 /  50  60  70  60  70
Waco                85  68  81  66  79 /  40  50  70  60  70
Paris               85  68  80  66  79 /  50  50  70  60  70
Denton              83  67  79  65  78 /  60  60  70  60  70
McKinney            84  67  79  66  79 /  50  60  70  60  70
Dallas              85  69  82  67  80 /  50  60  70  60  70
Terrell             85  68  81  67  79 /  40  50  70  60  70
Corsicana           86  70  81  68  80 /  30  40  60  60  70
Temple              84  68  80  67  78 /  40  50  70  70  70
Mineral Wells       83  66  79  65  77 /  70  60  70  60  60


.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ091>093-


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