Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 141822 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1222 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILINGS AND TIMING OF WIND SHIFT. THUNDER UNLIKELY.

CEILINGS ARE CLIMBING INTO THE VFR CATEGORY...WHERE THEY WILL
REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. A COLD FRONT HAS
CROSSED THE RED RIVER INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND WILL REACH THE
METROPLEX DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...A STRIP OF MVFR
CEILINGS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS ONLY AROUND 50 MILES
WIDE. BUT AS THE FRONT LIFTS THE MORE HUMID AIR ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...THE DECK WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...LINGERING
THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 1000FT
AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. SKIES WILL CLEAR AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY.

A WEAK IMPULSE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT...WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE FLUX ABOVE THE FRONT WILL OCCUR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE
AFTER DAYBREAK BUT WILL BE DISPLACED EVEN FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE
DAY AND SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
ADJUST CLOUD COVER...HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS DURING THAT
TIME. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES OF OUR AREA WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE
SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...WITH VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES LOWER AND LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER AS WELL. QUIETER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WILL
ENSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE...AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

78.JG



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  50  69  48  73 /  20  30  10   0   0
WACO, TX              74  51  72  43  77 /  20  30  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             64  48  66  45  69 /  20  50  30   5   0
DENTON, TX            69  47  68  45  71 /  20  30  10   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          68  49  67  45  71 /  20  40  20   0   0
DALLAS, TX            71  52  70  49  72 /  20  30  10   0   0
TERRELL, TX           70  51  69  46  72 /  20  40  30   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         73  55  72  48  75 /  20  30  30   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            75  52  73  46  77 /  20  20  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  45  70  44  74 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/79



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