Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 231631
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1131 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM...DOWNSLOPE REALLY KICKING IN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD WARMING. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE LOW 50S
MANY SPOTS, AND WILL PROBABLY ADD A FEW MORE  TO THAT FOR HIGHS.
OTHERWISE CLOUDS LINGER IN THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE BREAKS OF SUN THAN THIS MORNING.

930 AM...THIS UPDATES REMOVES POPS FOR ALL BUT A FEW FLURRIES OR
SPKLES IN THE MTNS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE
UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL KEEP THE COASTAL PLAIN MORE ON THE
SUNNY SIDE...AND HOLD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS IN THE MTNS. IT WILL
ALSO BE MILD WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 ON THE COAST AND IN INTERIOR S
NH. 40S ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISC...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER HAS WARMED SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ON NWS RADAR MOSAIC WAS ENTERING
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS OF 07Z. THIS AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND
EXIT THE COAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED IMPULSE THIS MORNING. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE GREATLY REDUCED...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH THE 3 AM
FORECAST PACKAGE. BEHIND THE IMPULSE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS
WILL ACTUALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE NUMBERS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
AND ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT A FEW
NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MILD ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PRESSES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN DIMINISHING TO DRIZZLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A RATHER BREEZY AND BALMY DAY WITH HIGHS OF 50 TO 60
AVERAGING A FULL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE COLDER
AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT COASTAL
STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY BREAK... IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION WE EXPECT MAJOR
INTERRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO GET TO THEIR
DESTINATIONS EARLY IF POSSIBLE. POPS WERE INCREASED BUT NOT OVERLY
SO TO MAKE ROOM FOR POSSIBLE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING.

LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG WARM FRONT COMES ONSHORE. NORTH OF THE
FRONT... FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SNOW
TO FALL. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTH... SO WILL THE WARMER
AIR ALLOWING SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS WILL BE
A TRAVEL HAZARD ONLY IN THAT IT WILL BE A STEADY... PERSISTENT
RAINFALL ON A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN A BAND CENTERED NEAR
THE COAST... WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MIDCOAST AND THE
NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD FALL JUST INLAND FROM NEAR
FARMINGTON TO NEAR BANGOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE REAL
COLD AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN CEILINGS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONTAL RAINS
WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT MTN MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW OR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND THE
GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT UNTIL 18Z
TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES WITH
A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



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