Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 291846
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
246 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY.
THIS WEEKEND...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AND IS SITUATED FROM NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH
CENTRAL MAINE. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING
ALLOWS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE. WITH CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND HAZE
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY IN MANY AREAS. THE SET UP FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL FEATURE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING
THEN TODAY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STORMS BECOMING SEVERE WITH
STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND LOCALIZED DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE FRONT AND CONVECTION SHOULD
QUICKLY SWEEP QUICKLY OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL TRIGGER
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR WITH COOLER READINGS ALONG THE COASTLINE DUE TO A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ADDITIONAL SEA BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE
FLOW.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR NEXT TUESDAY. THERE
IS GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR THE 12Z RUN THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE 850 MB 0C LINE EVEN APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRI/...LCL MVFR PSBL IN WIDELY SCT SHRA
AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD THROUGH 00Z. AREAS OF MVFR AFT
00Z TONIGHT IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 08 AND 12Z.
AREAS OF MVFR BTWN 16Z THU AND 02Z FRI IN SHRA AND TSRA WITH LCL
IFR IN +TSRA. AFT 00Z FRI...AREAS OF MVFR IN FG.

LONG TERM...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRIOR TO THIS...PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WAVES AND WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE THE BAYS LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...A RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE WATERS DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON


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