Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 032224
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
624 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
625 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE THE RULE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE


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