Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 280430
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1230 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
RETURN. COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1220 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TREND AND TO
INCORPORATE THE 04Z MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
.UPDATE...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY EARLY...LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT FOR A FEW
STORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FOR THURS NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL TERMS THE OUTLOOK PERIOD IS SHOWING A LARGE
LONG WAVE RIDGE POSITION BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OFF THE EAST
COAST. A FEW FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE DRAGGING
BRIEF BOUTS OFF COOLER AIR AT TIMES AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING EACH FRONT.

STARTING OUT THE OUTLOOK PERIOD IS THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT A CANADIAN SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL SET OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION BY LATER SUNDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD THROUGH WED BUT WITH A
RETURN WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING BRINGING BACK WARMER AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODEL FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/MVFR IN STORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THEREAFTER...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SPOTS IN FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
ON THURS...MAINLY VFR BUT SCT LOWER CONDITIONS IN TSTMS MAINLY
BETWEEN 16Z-20Z.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AND THURSDAY. THUS FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOWER THAN IT HAS BEEN. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
ES


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