Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 311400 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1000 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON MONDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THRU THIS
EVENING. TWEAKED SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS
IN SATELLITE. EXPECT THIS STRATOCU TO STICK AROUND MOST OF THE
DAY...BUT GRADUALLY THIN AND BREAK UP BEFORE CLOUDS FROM THE SW
MOVE OVERHEAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LIGHT WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S EARLY ON...
WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOWER 40S ALONG
THE COAST. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD ONTO
THE NH AND MAINE COASTS BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST IS FELT. THE SECOND...MORE DYNAMIC LOW WILL PHASE WITH THE
FIRST LOW SOMETIME SUNDAY AND BRING MEASURABLE SNOW TO MUCH OF
EASTERN MAINE. MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH 6
PM WILL RESIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A
COUPLE INCHES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA. WE SHOULD HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COAST
AND PERHAPS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEEPENS
JUST OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL COOL OVERNIGHT AS
COLDER AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
APPEARS RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO WET SNOW IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AND THIS TREND WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH
TO THE COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST MORE OF A MIX
IN MIDCOAST AND INTERIOR CENTRAL MAINE. BIG DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
QPF AT THIS POINT SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL A BIG QUESTION BUT THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS INTO THE MARITIMES. EXPECT MIXED PRECIP IN SOUTHERN ZONES
TO GRADUALLY GO OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR FLOODS IN BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. COULD SEE SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF WET
SNOW IN NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE PRECIP TAPERS OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE WINDS WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH AND
MID TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE EVENING. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. WEAK OVER-RUNNING
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY TO NORTHERN
ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
VARIABLE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE SOUTH WITH A LITTLE MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTH ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASING POPS IN NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS. THE FRONT WILL
STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN UP LOW PRESSURE ON THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND OR MIXED PRECIP ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
VFR CEILINGS.

LONG TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO INCREASE. HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS
SEAS INCREASE TO 8-12 FT.

LONG TERM...HAVE INCREASED SEAS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST. WITH WINDS APPROACHING STORM
FORCE...SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 20 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



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