Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 131941
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND STALLS OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND....BRINGING SEVERAL DAYS WITH WARM HUMID
CONDITIONS...AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD TUE NIGHT AND
EXITS OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES...BUT A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR THURSDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH FAIR AND
SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHWRS AND A FEW EMBDD TSTMS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A S/WV MOVES
ENEWD THRU THE SWLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC IT WILL PUSH
A WEAK TROF TO THE ME/NH COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE AMS IN PLACE WILL
REMAIN HUMID WITH HIGH PW`S SO ANY SHWRS/TSTMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
HVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD AS PER BLENDED MODEL
GUID SUGGESTS. WENT WITH HIGH POPS FOR TONIGHT AS PER LATEST RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST. SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT.SLGTLY INCREASED QPF GUID FM RFCQPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC TROF WILL STALL AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WSWLY AS THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONIC UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL TO OUR W OVER THE GT LAKES
ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE. THE SFC TROF JUST OFF THE
COAST WILL DISSIPATE BY LATER IN THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV WILL ROTATE
NEWD AND HEAD TOWARD THE REGION LATE MON AND MON NIGHT SPREADING
MORE TROPICAL LIKE SHWRS/TSTMS INTO THE REGION AS ALL MODELS
SUGGEST. PW`S WILL REMAIN HIGH. LACK OF ANY VENTILATION WILL ALLOW POOLING
DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN IN THE 65-70 DEGS RANGE. USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS FOR TEMPS AND POPS. A QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OCEAN STRATUS
WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY THE THE LGT SLY
FLOW AND THRU THE NIGHT. FOR MON NIGHT ONCE AGN SLGTLY INCREASED
RFC QPF GUID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE
CWA AND LINED UP WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...FAIRLY POTENT 500
MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST DIGS AND BECOMES NEG TITTLED AS IT BEGINS
TO LIFT TO NE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A WAVE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND SHOULD PRODUCE SHRA/TSRA...PERHAPS SOME
PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN AS WELL. GIVEN GOOD DYNAMICS AND VERY MOIST
AIR IN PLACE /PWAT CLOSE TO 2"/...WILL SEE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAFL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ON TUE AND
CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT.

EARLY WED...WILL SEE A SECOND WAVE ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD FINALLY KICK THE FRONT OUT TO THE
EAST...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
WED MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...SOME CLEARING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS WED AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WED NIGHT...WITH CLEARING
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THU MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY FAIR...WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AS HIGHS CLIMB FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ON THU
TO 80 TO 85 OVER THE WEEKEND....AND TDS RISING FORM THE 50S THU
AND FRI...INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING SCT TO OCCASIONAL
SHRA/TSTMS TNGT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MRNG. LOW STRATUS WILL
LINGER IN SOME AREAS INTO LATE MON OTRW SOME IMPROVING CONDS
EXPECTED BY AFTN. CONDS ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDS AS SHWRS/TSTMS AND LOW STRATUS MOVE TO THE N MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE ON TUE IN NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA...AND COASTAL TERMINALS COULD BE STUCK IN IFR FOR A
BETTER PART OF THE DAY. EXPECT MAINLY IFR OR LOWER TUE NIGHT
EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS BY WED
AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL CONTINUE THE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOME GSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AOA MINIMAL SCA CRIT BUT ALSO BUILDING SEAS AS PER SWAN
NICELY DEPICTS. LATER TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE
PRES GRAD WEAKENS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH. ON MONDAY SEAS WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE SO THEY WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE OUTER WATERS
ALTHOUGH IN THE BAYS THEY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH. THE SLY FLOW
WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP SUNDAY NIGHT SO THE SCA OVER THE OUTER
WATERS WILL LKLY BE EXTENDED AND ADDED ONCE AGAIN INTO THE BAYS
FOR MON NIGHT.


LONG TERM...SCA LVL SEAS WILL PERSIST OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS THROUGH
WED AS SUB-SCA SW WIND CONTINUES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS WED NIGHT....AND WILL SHIFT WINDS TO WEST AS THE
DIMINISH...WHICH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 11.7 FT AT PORTLAND, WHICH WILL BE
ONE OF THE HIGHEST OF THE YEAR, WILL OCCUR AT 1236 AM TONIGHT. THE
LATEST HIGH TIDE AT 1223PM WAS .3-.4 FT ABOVE THE PREDICTED HIGH
TIDE. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS INTO TONIGHT SHOULD
PUSH THE SURGE HIGHER TONIGHT THAN THE PAST HIGH TIDE. THIS WILL
PUT TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE IN THE RANGE OF 12.2-12.5 TIDAL FLOOD
STAGE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED AT THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE.  SEAS WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE 4-8 FT RANGE AS
WELL TONIGHT SO SOME SPLASH OVER IS ALSO EXPECTED. THEREFORE, WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE, WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE
HIGH TIDE TNGT...FROM 11 PM TO 2 AM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$









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