733
FXUS61 KGYX 090236
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1036 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Several cool and unsettled days are in store as a warm front
remains south of most of our forecast area. Widespread showers
expected today with a strong storm or two possible this
afternoon, mainly across southern NH. Another system follows
for the end of the week, bringing more showers into the
forecast. The unsettled, showery pattern may continue through
the weekend and possibly into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
0230Z Update...
Thunderstorms developed off the New Hampshire Seacoast this
evening and intensified as they head out to sea and into the
Gulf of Maine. Otherwise, the coverage of any remaining
precipiation will continue to dwindle this evening. Have
expanded the patchy fog tonight with a raw north to
northeasterly winds and low ceilings expected overnight. Very
little change in temperatures will occur through the early
morning hours from current levels.

Update...
Have updated the near term portion of the forecast for the
overnight hours. A chilly and raw northeasterly flow continues
over the region with temperatures only in the 40s and 50s as of
22Z. The exception would be portions of the Connecticut River
Valley which broke out into the sunshine today allowing
temperatures to reach the 60s.

Patchy fog and scattered showers will dominate the overnight
conditions. The highest chance for precipitation will remain
over northern portions of the forecast area. All areas will be
in the 40s by morning.

Prev Disc...Showers from mid level WAA exiting the CWA over the
next hour or, with warm sector above the inversion moving in
late afternoon early eve. This leads to another round showers,
more convective and probably more scattered late today. Some
thunder is being seen in some of these cells in VT, but expect
them to flatten as the cross the CT valley. The best chance for
a TSRA will be across SW NH, perhaps as far E as KMHT/KASH. I
think theres a very small chance that a strong storm moves into
Cheshire county through about 7 PM, with maybe some hail and
some strong winds. Otherwise, between the onset of rain, and the
development of onshore flow temps in most places have fallen
off morning maxes and now in the upper 40s to low 50s. Parts of
the CT valley are the exception where the rain has ended, the
clouds have thinned just a bit and the winds are more S-SW, so
there temps may warm a few more degrees and top in in the 60-65
range.

For tonight, the showers in the warm sector and eventually along
the cold front should end by or around midnight. With mainly
cloudy skies hold in through the night. NNE flow develops behind
the front, during the pre-dawn hours, and this will help clear
some places of the low clouds and fog, but the marine layer will
stay strong , especially closer to the coast, and that front
will not show mixing until after sunrise. Mins will be in the
40s, lower in the mtns and upper in S NH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Very weak sfc high moves through on Thu, but low to mid level
flow becomes stagnant, so it will be tough to clear things out,
and skies stay mainly cloudy, although the most sun will be
found in the E zones. Still, the NNE flow will at least keep the
winds from being onshore, so it looks like temps will stay a
little warmer through the day with maxes mostly in the mid to
upper 50s. However, except for the exception of a few showers in
the mtns, it should stay dry through the day. Thu night stay
cloudy, with weak sfc low passing S of New England. This brings
a chance of some showers working into the S half of NH after
midnight. , but it should remain dry for the rest of the CWA, as
that NNE flow helps keep dry air in place. It`ll be a little
cooler Thu night with lows ranging from the upper 30s in the ME
mtns to the low to mid 40s in the S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Model guidance has overall persisted with a drier trend
for Friday and Saturday with high pressure remaining more in control
over our area with a south and eastward trend in an area of low
pressure moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Still, expect mostly
cloudy skies for southern and western areas on Friday with these
areas also seeing the higher (30-40%) shower chances. More breaks
are expected in the clouds farther north and east with lower shower
chances (20%) due to more dry air aloft for Friday. For Saturday,
some energy aloft will be crossing overhead to aid in shower
development, but lingering dry air aloft should keep shower coverage
low.

A better chance for additional rain showers arrives Saturday night
into Sunday as a more amplified wave moves across New England, but
amounts are expected to be light with maybe 0.10-0.25" of rain, per
ensemble guidance.

Going into early next week, low-level southerly flow is expected to
bring a return to warmer temperatures with perhaps another wave or
two giving us more showers. However, there is poor agreement on the
among models in resolving these waves, so I have left in the NBM
slight chance/chance showers.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...With the exception of KHIE and KLEB, all terminals
should drop to IFR or LIFT tonight, and will be stuck there
through Thu morning. I think theres a good chance for some
improvement Thu afternoon into Thu night, but I think itll more
like be MVFR than VFR. KLEB/KHIE will stay VFR to MVFR, although
KHIE could go down to IFR late. They both should settle at MVFR
Thu into Thu night.

Long Term...The forecast has trended drier for Friday and Saturday,
but the better chances for rain showers/restrictions remains across
NH and SW ME. These areas could see MVFR ceilings, possibly IFR at
times, as well as vsby reductions within SHRA. Additional chances
for showers/flight restrictions are possible Sunday into Monday, but
the forecast confidence in timing and locations(s) of these remains
low.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds/seas pick up from the NE late tonight through
Thu evening, and should see gusts in the 20-25 kt range,
especially Thu aft/eve, but should mostly stay below SCA levels.

Long Term...Winds will be out of the east or northeast on Friday
with high pressure NE of the waters and emerging low pressure near
the Mid-Atlantic coast. This low will begin to lift to the northeast
Friday night into Saturday but is expected to pass east of the
waters. However, depending on its proximity to the waters, it could
bring a period of SCA level wind gusts Fri night through Saturday.
Even though showery weather may continue into Saturday, winds and
seas look to subside. A return to more southerly flow looks to occur
next week, but it`s uncertain as to whether it will increase enough
for SCA levels at this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High astronomical tides combined with around 0.5 feet of storm
surge may push water levels to around minor flood stage around
the time of high tide late this evening/tonight and again Thursday
night. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for tonight.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for MEZ023-024.
NH...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NHZ014.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Cannon