Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 301134
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
634 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INITIALLY WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

630 AM...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS FOR THIS ESTF
UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET. OTHERWISE...MONITORING THE
PRESSURE FALLS JUST OFFSHORE AND AWAITING SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPMENT...AND ULTIMATELY THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOWS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 1007 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF MONTREAL /CYUL/ WITH
A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE IMPULSE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST AND GO NEGATIVE TILT BY LATE
TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WERE BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE REGION ON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. THREE HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER
OF 3 MILLIBARS WERE OBSERVED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND EXPECT
THE SECONDARY LOW TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE TODAY WITH
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATER TODAY ALONG AND TO THE EAST
OF THIS BOUNDARY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO MODEL QPF FORECASTS...AND
THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE NEW
FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE LOW WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
CLOSES OFF...WITH SNOW CONTINUING HEAVY AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
MAINE AND EXTREME EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...DRAGGING COLDER AIR BACK
INTO THE AREA AND PRODUCING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE SNOW
WILL TAPER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS FURTHER OFFSHORE. WE`LL
SEE SOME CLEARING OVER MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE
BY AFTERNOON...WHILE CLOUDS LINGER OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A PROGRESSIVE UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY THAT WILL DEVELOP A
COASTAL SURFACE LOW THAT WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
SOUTHERN AREAS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM AND SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY. THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES WELL OUT TO SEA TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR MIDWEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. ON THURSDAY A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHED FROM THE WEST.

OVERALL STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODEL FOR THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD FOR BOTH POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER AT TIMES IN SN AND LOW CIGS...PERSISTING
INTO TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE FRI NIGHT IN
KLEB/KHIE/KHIE...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SAT MOST EVERYWHERE
ELSE. NW WINDS TONIGHT AND SAT WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT.

LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STORM PASSING TO THE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH MONDAY MAY PRODUCE SOME MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY...WITH
GALES DEVELOPING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEEPENING
OCEAN LOW. A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR STORM ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY
OVER OUR EASTERN WATERS.

LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ007-008-
     012-013-018>020-023-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ009-014-
     021-022-025>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NHZ001-002-
     004-006-009-010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NHZ003-005-
     007-008-011-012-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES


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