Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 231939
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
339 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...AFTER A SPARKLING APRIL DAY WITH UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT IN MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
DAYBREAK THURSDAY UNDER A UNOBSTRUCTED CELESTIAL DOME AND A
COOL AND DRY RESIDENT AIR MASS. MINIMUMS AROUND 40 OVER OUR
NORTHERN TIER FROM HOLLY SHELTER TO ELIZABETHTOWN TO ST PAULS TO
BENNETTSVILLE IS EXPECTED...MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE OVER THE INTERIOR
AND UPPERS 40S TO AROUND 50 AT THE BEACHES. THE CLEAR AND DRY AIR
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD VIEWING OF THE LYRIDS METEOR SHOWER...WHICH
ALTHOUGH IS JUST PAST PEAK DOES CONTINUE TO OFFER A NIGHT SHOWING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW
WILL BRING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND SUSTAIN MODERATE SPEEDS. THIS
WILL SLIGHTLY OFF-SET IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RUN 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE COMBINED
WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL MAKE THURSDAY A BEAUTIFUL DAY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NORTH...BECOMING SE BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL WARMING...AND HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW CLIMO...LOW 70S MOST PLACES. AMPLE LATE-
APRIL SUNSHINE WILL MAKE IT FEEL WARMER THAN THAT HOWEVER. HIGH
SHIFTING FURTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INTRODUCE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND KEEP LOWS ABOVE NORMAL...FALLING ONLY INTO
THE MID AND UPR 50S. MINS MAY ACTUALLY BE REACHED MID-OVERNIGHT
AND START TO CLIMB TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...AND HAVE SHOWN A
SLIGHTLY ATYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE IN THE HOURLIES.

FRIDAY GETS MORE INTERESTING. HIGH OFFSHORE LETS WARM/MOIST RETURN
FLOW FLOOD INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF A 5H IMPULSE AND COLD FRONT.
WHILE THIS IMPULSE WILL FOCUS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...AND WILL CROSS A BIT EARLY TO TAP MAXIMUM
HEATING...CONVECTION IS LIKELY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. THE EARLY CROSSING
OF THE IMPULSE MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR DURING
PEAK HEATING...KEEPING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAK EVEN WITH SBCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND LLJ WINDS NEARING 40 KTS. SPC HAS THE AREA
OUTLINED IN A "SEE TEXT" IN THE SWODY3...BUT AT THIS TIME SEE ONLY A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ANY SEVERE CONVECTION. WILL KEEP POP AT HIGH CHC
ACROSS THE NORTH...LOW CHC SOUTH HOWEVER. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL JUMP
WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THANKS TO ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED REMAINS ON
THE EVENTS FOR NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL LOW WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...IT STILL LOOKS RATHER NICE AND UNEVENTFUL FOR OUR
AREA AS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ALLOW A WEDGE FRONT
TO PUSH SOUTH SUNDAY. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POPS FOR MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
STARTS TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING. AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THE
TIMING OF THE LOW...MONDAY MAY ACTUALLY END UP DRY. FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER. TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK REMAIN ESSENTIALLY IN
PLACE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
TODAY WILL REMAIN SUNNY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS AND HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z
THURSDAY AS WINDS BECOME N-NE AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP US CLOUD-FREE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THE DRIER
AIR FILTERING INTO OUR AREA BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THEN
OFFSHORE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS TO
MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 15-18Z...REMAINING AOB 10
KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO
MVFR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY HAVE KEPT INSHORE
SEAS TAME AND MOSTLY FLATTENED...WHILE FARTHER OFFSHORE MORE CHOP
AND SEA-HEIGHTS AROUND 3 FEET IN A SHORT-PERIOD PITCH PREVAILED.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NW WINDS WILL TEND MORE TO TRUE
NORTH WITH MODERATE WIND-SPEEDS SUSTAINED AND OUTER WATERS MAY
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO 20 KT GUSTS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO
ADVISORIES EXPECTED AS SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OFFSHORE.
WEAK SE SWELL OF 1 FOOT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND NORTHERLY CHOP.
NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OVER THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING OFFSHORE FRIDAY WILL CREATE LIGHT WINDS
ON THURSDAY OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH DIRECTION VEERING FROM NE
THURSDAY MORNING...TO SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY MOST OF FRIDAY...BUT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15-20 KTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...TURNING
WINDS TO THE NW AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE WIND-WAVE DOMINATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH 1-3 FT SEAS EXPECTED
THURSDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN ON THE NW WINDS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FOR THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A NICE PERIOD FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY. FOR SATURDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS UNDER A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT REMAINS ON
SCHEDULE FOR SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS BRIEFLY TO 10-15
KNOTS. FINALLY FOR MONDAY...WINDS WILL TURN ONCE AGAIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ON THE LOWER END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE
WIND SPEEDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ALONG WITH THE WIND SHIFTS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/BJR
MARINE...MJC/JDW/SHK








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