Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 201121
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
621 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM CUTS
BY TO OUR SOUTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY WHEN A
STORM MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. CLEAR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM THE SW. HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED DATABASE TO INCREASE
COVERAGE THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A
CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY IN STORE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LEADING EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM EMERGING FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE SW IN THE
FORM OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE THE SE US
COAST. PRIME TIME FOR THE RAIN WILL BE MID MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE. RAIN EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY LIGHT WITH SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN. HIGHEST QPF
TOTALS ALONG THE COAST NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED A QUARTER INCH.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COOL NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MOST
PLACES. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SOME DRYING MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY MAINLY OVER
WRN ZONES. COASTAL LOCALES WILL STAY QUITE CLOUDY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AND THE MORE PROXIMAL NATURE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. MOISTURE COMES WASHING BACK IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION RIDES ATOP THE WEDGE AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
APPEARS LIKELY AREA-WIDE MOST OF MONDAY. AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES
RAPIDLY UP MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT PRECIP SHUTS OFF BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL BE TOUGH TO SHAKE. SUNDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. A SLIGHT ASSERTION OF THE WEDGE ON MONDAY COULD KNOCK
INLAND TEMPS DOWN KEEPING SOME PLACES FROM REACHING 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WEDGE WILL HOLD ON WEAKLY ON
TUESDAY SOME SERIOUS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN FLOODING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN BREAKING
OUT THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE DEEPER ASCENT KICKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EVEN
STRONGER FORCING WILL BE IMPINGING UPON THE REGION BUT THE
SYNOPTIC DRY SLOT MAY BE AS WELL. TIMING THESE FACTORS WILL BE
CRITICAL SINCE AS-IS IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE DEEP
CONVECTION MIXED IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. BUT SHOULD
THE DRY SLOT MOVE IN MORE SLOWLY THEN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY
MATERIALIZE AS BL WINDS CRANK UP TO 50KT OR SO. STRONG COLD AND
DRY AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY EVENING LEADING TO A CHILLY
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT BUT A MODERATION BACK TO CLIMO EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THE LATE WED FROPA MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL TEND
TO BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING
THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS AS GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN MOVES OVER THE
TERMINALS AND SATURATES THE LOW LEVELS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR
MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD PROVIDE
GREATER SATURATION. NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
DAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF 18-21Z INLAND TERMINALS AND LATE
AFTERNOON COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON SUN. RAIN LIKELY MON WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. MORE
SHOWERS EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODEST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID TERM AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO PASSES EAST OF
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL PEAK BRIEFLY THIS EVENING IN THE 15 TO 20
KT RANGE...OTHERWISE FOR THE MOST PART WE WILL SEE 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING
MAY PROMPT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A FRONT WILL BE STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTH
ON SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK RIDGE/WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE LANDMASS. THE RESULTING NE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
TYPICAL AS WILL SEAS...BOTH PRECLUDING ANY ADVISORY/CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES. THE FRONT MOVES CLOSE TO IF NOT INTO THE FORECAST ZONES
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND WILL GROW LIGHTER AND THE DIRECTION
FORECAST MAY GET IFFY DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE FRONT GETS. BY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OUT TO SEA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. FLOW WILL TURN BACK TO OFFSHORE AND INCREASE BY A FEW
KNOTS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THOUGH QUIET TO START CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOSES INFLUENCE OVER
THE LANDMASS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MARCH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL RAMP UP WIND AND SEAS LATE TUESDAY BUT MOSTLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED. WINDS LIKELY NOT TO SLACKEN
MUCH WITH WED AFTERNOON FROPA, JUST A SHARP VEER IN DIRECTION.
FLAGS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/MBB



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