Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 291354
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
954 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
BRING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WARMTH
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST NEXT WEEK INCREASING
OUR RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 952 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT HAS REACHED A LINE FROM SOUTH
OF CHARLOTTE TO GOLDSBORO AND EAST TO THE OUTER BANKS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS DEPICTED WELL IN THE 925 MB THETA FIELD. THE 13 UTC
RUC IS SHOWING THE EAST-WEST THETA GRADIENT DISSIPATING WITH THE
AFTERNOON HEATING. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND THE BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS SHOWING A MOISTURE GRADIENT FROM 1.6 INCHES
TO THE NORTH TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE SOUTH. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH. THE 12 UTC HRRR REFLECTIVITY FIELD IS DEPICTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF SOUTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA AND REMAINING DRY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE.

FORECAST HIGHS WILL REMAIN THE SAME WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE
90S MAINLY WEST OF LUMBERTON TO ANDREWS AND LOWER 90S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. THERE WILL BE A FEW UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES.

CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WARRANTED FOR THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING A RATHER WEAK SIGNAL FOR
MOSTLY SEA BREEZE CONVECTION AND HAVE MAINTAINED THESE MINIMAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST. PERHAPS A FEW MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE ON
THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SYSTEM NOW LIGHTING
UP THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MAKES IT EAST. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST/GUIDANCE WARRANTS ONLY TOKEN CHANGES AS UPPER 80S ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS AND LOWER 90S INLAND CONTINUE. 70S FOR MORNING LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DOMINATED BY RIDGING AS BASICALLY A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS. AN
ELONGATED RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST TO WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
TRANSITIONING FROM A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE...NOTABLE FEATURES WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH CLOSER TO OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE
POPS ESSENTIALLY EVERY DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE SURFACE FEATURES GET AN ASSIST FROM THE UPPER
LEVELS. THE TIMING HOWEVER IS LOWER CONFIDENCE. WITH THE PERIOD
MODULATED BY HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...NO
SURPRISE THAT TEMPERATURES BOTH MAX AND MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BY JUST ABOUT A CATEGORY ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT THIS AM BECOMING S
TO SE AT 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT.  WITH
THE S TO SE FLOW...AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SUCH THAT FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
FOR NOW...TAFS HAVE MVFR FOG AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 500 FEET BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG AFTER 06Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR FOR OUR NORTHERN
TERMINALS SAT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 952 AM FRIDAY...CURRENTLY A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 5 TO 10
KNOTS IS BLOWING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH 2 TO 2.5 FT WAVES.
THE BUOYS ARE PICKING UP A 1/3 FOOT SWELL FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND THE WAVE WATCH IS SHOWING THIS DECREASING WITH
TIME. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK AND WIND SPEED ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE A
SLIGHT VEERING TO SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A
SYSTEM CREEPS IN FROM THE WEST BUT THIS WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL
TRANSITION. SWAN SEAS SHOW A CONSISTENT 1-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LATE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL PREVAIL WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...NOW VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SWELL COMPONENT WILL
BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RAN







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