Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 301934
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
334 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED A LITTLE OVER 200
MILES EAST OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS LOW HAS BEEN BATTLING
DRY AIR IMPINGING ON THE CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTH. THIS...PLUS
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS PREVENTED SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING VIA WARM
CORE/TROPICAL PROCESSES. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM APPEAR FAR TOO EAGER
TO ABSORB THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN THE BROADER
WIND FIELD AROUND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE 17Z RUN OF THE RUC APPEARS MUCH MORE REASONABLE AS
ITS INITIALIZED POSITION OF THE LOW IS MUCH CLOSER TO WHERE IT
APPEARS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. COMPARED TO THE NAM AND GFS THIS
MEANS A SLOWER VEERING OF SURFACE WIND DIRECTIONS...LIGHTER
OVERALL WIND SPEEDS...AND A DELAY IN ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NEAR THE COAST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PENDER COUNTY SHOULD DIE A QUICK DEATH OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DRY AIR ALOFT WINS THE GAME. FARTHER INLAND
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS WITHIN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND WEST OF
I-95 THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BECOME MORE ISOLATED AFTER SUNSET AS THE SURFACE STABILIZES AND
CONVECTION WILL BE FORCED TO USE 850 MB AS A LIFTING LAYER...WITH
LESS INSTABILITY AND ONLY THE INCOMING FRONT AS A CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS MAKING QUICK PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...AND
SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST AT SUNRISE FRIDAY.

LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 72-76 RANGE OVERNIGHT...NOT AS COOL AS ONE
MIGHT THINK WITH AN INCOMING FRONT. A FEW MORE CLOUDS THAN WE SAW
THIS MORNING PLUS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED NEAR THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.THE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE BUT A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE SEEN WITH +2 INCH
PW ALONG THE COAST TO 1.5 INCHES WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE BEST CONVECTION FROM 15 UTC INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH A 50% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CONVECTION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BACK TO
30 PERCENT BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
90S INLAND UNTIL THE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION BEGINNING AND TO
THE UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD WILL
GIVE WAY TO WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
STALLED COLD/STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY
SUNDAY...PROBABLY ALIGNED RIGHT ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST...BEFORE
WASHING OUT AND DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. VERY HIGH PWATS AND SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST...SO AS THIS
FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH MONDAY AND FALLS APART...INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SE TO NW. HOWEVER...THE BULK
OF THIS PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE THE MDT-CHC POP ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW-CHC INLAND FOR
SUN/MON ALONG WITH TEMPS AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL EXPAND NE
INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES LOCALLY...BUT WITH
TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. THIS HEAT MAY BE SHORT
LIVED THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTH
THURSDAY...WITH VERY DEEP TROUGHING IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS AND ONCE AGAIN INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...LFC`S
COMING DOWN NORTH OF THE REGION. MAY SEE CONVECTION IN PENDER AND
NEW HANOVER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STICK WITH VCSH DUE
TO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MAINLY AN EAST NORTHEAST WIND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST...LIGHT INLAND. TONIGHT...THE NAM WANTS
TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING AS THE FRONT LAYS OVER THE CWA. DUE TO
LACK OF FORCING...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION ENDING FOR DIURNAL REASONS
AFTER 02Z WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO FIRE FAIRLY EARLY...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION. POST FRONTAL LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED A LITTLE OVER 200
MILES EAST OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS LOW HAS BEEN BATTLING
DRY AIR INPINGING ON THE CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTH. THE 12Z GFS
AND NAM MODELS APPEAR FAR TOO EAGER TO ABSORB THE LOW INTO THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE 17Z RUN OF THE
RUC MODEL APPEARS MUCH MORE REASONABLE AS ITS INITIALIZED POSITION
OF THE LOW IS MUCH CLOSER TO WHERE IT APPEARS ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE. COMPARED TO THE NAM AND GFS THIS MEANS A SLOWER VEERING
OF SURFACE WIND DIRECTIONS...LIGHTER OVERALL WIND SPEEDS...AND A
DELAY IN ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR THE COAST UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT.

SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET INSIDE 20 MILES FROM SHORE...TO
AS HIGH AS 4 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. THE WAVE
SPECTRUM IS DOMINATED BY SWELL ENERGY AT AROUND 7-8 SECONDS PERIOD.
THIS SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL IS BEING GENERATED BY THE LOW OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST...AND SHOULD REMAIN THE DOMINANT WAVE SET TONIGHT.
SOME OF THESE 4-FOOTERS SHOULD MAKE IT INSIDE THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE FEAR.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST
AND WINDS AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND
DIRECTIONS WILL BE VARIABLE OVER THE PERIOD. SEA HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET WITH A FEW 4 FOOTERS AT 20
MILES OF THE COAST MAINLY FROM FRYING PAN SHOALS NORTHWARD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC
FEATURE. THIS WILL CREATE SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...WHICH WILL BE
PERSISTENT WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WAVE
AMPLITUDES WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY SWELL OF 5-6 FT ENTERS THE SPECTRUM
AND COMBINES WITH THE SW WIND CHOP TO PRODUCE 4-5 FT SEAS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...AFTER BEING 3-4 FT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...ONSHORE WINDS ARE PRODUCING A SMALL 0.5 TO 0.6
FOOT POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALY AT THE BEACHES. LARGE TIDAL RANGES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON PLUS THIS ANOMALY WILL PUSH WATER
LEVELS TO WITHIN ABOUT 4 INCHES OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CRITERIA
AT BOTH WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND MYRTLE BEACH THIS EVENING. NO COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY IS PLANNED...HOWEVER ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER
AT DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON WHERE THE OBSERVED ANOMALY IS CLOSER TO +0.8
FEET WE SHOULD ECLIPSE MINOR FLOOD CRITERIA HERE. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR THE RIVER BETWEEN
8-11 PM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
 NCZ107.MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...HDL/TRA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRA


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