Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 082024
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
324 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST. A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON MAY ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY TO CREATE A FEW
SHOWERS. THIS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WARMED A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUITE. MOST READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S PRIMARILY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER
REMAINING COUPLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD COOL AND DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
POST FRONTAL CHILLY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES
ENTRENCHED OVER NE SC AND SE NC. NO APPRECIABLE FORCING THIS
PERIOD AND OVERALL DRYISH COLUMN CONDITIONS WILL RESTRAIN ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES FROM GEARING UP. 875-750 MB CLOUDS MAY
TRAVERSE THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...FULLY EXPECT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNKEN
INTO THE 20S. DUE TO ANTICIPATED BREEZES BOTH MORNINGS APPARENT
TEMPS/WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 13-21 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE WEATHER FOR WHICH
ROBERT FROST WOULD LIKELY APPROVE...BOTH IN ITS NEW-ENGLAND TYPE
COLD AND CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP LATE WEEK AS AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIR MASS PLAGUES THE SOUTHEAST.

DRY COLD FRONT OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING LEAVES BLUSTERY AND COLD
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. 850MB TEMPS OF -7C TO -10C WILL KEEP TEMPS
WELL BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND LOWS INTO FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES A
BAROCLINIC GRADIENT NEARBY...ON WHICH AT LEAST A WAKE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/ECM BOTH DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTN...AND WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IF QPF CAN
OCCUR. LOCAL TOP DOWN SUGGESTS AN RW/SW MIX...AND WITH AN OTHERWISE
WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE "THE ONLY OTHER SOUNDS THE SWEEP OF EASY WIND
AND DOWNY FLAKE." NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST ATTM OF COURSE...BUT
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.

DRY AND EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THIS FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING BY SUNDAY TOWARDS -20C. WHILE IT IS TOO
EARLY TO JUMP ON THIS EXTREME COLD...THE TREND HAS BEEN THERE AND
WILL BEGIN TO RAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARDS VERY COLD VALUES. THESE
TEMPS WILL POTENTIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL ON THE
STRONG CAA AS WELL...SO "AN HOUR OF WINTER DAY MIGHT SEEM TOO
SHORT"...OR LONG IF VENTURING OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS WIND CHILLS
MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

BY MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PASSING
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS...10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20KTS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH ANY HEAVY DOWNPOUR POTENTIALLY
CREATING BRIEF MVFR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS AND PREVAILING VFR. ON TUESDAY...VFR CONTINUES WITH MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WIND SHIFT UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WATERS MORESO
INLAND. EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP IN FULL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
BY 0600 UTC WITH A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED IN A 20-25 KNOT RANGE. SEAS ARE STILL A LITTLE CHURNED UP
DUE TO THE STORM YESTERDAY BUT HAVE DIPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
WINDS SHOULD DO THE TRICK WITH 8-10 FEET EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING
WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...AN UNWELCOMING MARINE ENVIRONMENT TUE AND WED
WITH ADVISORY WEST WINDS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALLER
WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR-SHORE ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES BUT FARTHER OUT
SEAS WILL WORSEN. GUSTS TO 30 KT A GOOD BET ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BOTH DAYS. SEAS GENERALLY 3-7 FT BOTH DAYS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TUE/WED BECAUSE OF THE
BLUSTERY WIND-SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BOOKEND THE PERIOD BEHIND
A COLD FRONT JUST BEFORE THE PERIOD...AND A SECOND ONE ON FRIDAY
EVENING. NW WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ALL DAY SATURDAY...WILL
BE 15-20 KTS...BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE MOSTLY LIGHT AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHEST
DURING THE GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...FALLING FROM 3-5 FT
EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN RISING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT LATE SATURDAY WITH
A NW WIND CHOP THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
WEAK GROUND SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL/SHK


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