Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 260613
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
212 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will prevail much of the upcoming
week as high pressure offshore brings southerly winds. A series
of low pressure systems will bring a chance of rain Monday into
Tuesday, and again late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 945 PM Saturday...Latest sat imagery and sfc obs indicate
mainly high level moisture affecting the FA this evening and
likely persisting thru the night. Mid-level moisture may
approach the far western portions of the ILM CWA overnight. Low
level trajectories from the east-southeast will eventually bring
the strato-cu deck covering the adjacent Atlantic offshore
Waters partially into the local coastal waters and even
partially onshore during the pre-dawn Sun hrs and continuing
into daylight Sun. No pcpn expected from this stratocu with
little to no vertical development of these clouds. Staying
rather mild for tonights lows with widespread 50s across the FA.
Normal lows are in the 40s.

Previous....................................................
As of 230 PM Saturday...A warm southerly flow today has allowed
temperatures to rise in the mid 70s most places with 60s at the
beaches. An extensive diurnal cu field has developed as ample low
level moisture moves in off the ocean. However, although the odd
spot shower cannot be ruled out, with no triggers and an otherwise
dry column expect another day of no rain.

For tonight a light southerly flow will continue with high pressure
dominating the western Atlantic. Lows will be in the mid 50s for
most locations.

Model soundings show that Sunday will likely dawn with a layer of
stratus, plus patchy fog, in places. Increasing moisture advection
and afternoon heating will likely make for another day of extensive
cu field formation as the stratus layer breaks up. In addition, a
cirrus shield will gradually thicken as an upper trough lifts across
the great lakes and its associated frontal system approach the area.
Temperatures in the mid to upper 70s will otherwise make for a
pleasant day as the warm southerly flow continues.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...Relatively strong high pressure both at the
surface and aloft will be the primary weather feature over the
eastern Carolinas through the period. A series of shortwaves
will continue to ride through the Mississippi and Ohio Valley`s
with seemingly little impact on our area. The only pops through
the period and they are respectable occur with the consistent
sea breeze signature late Monday morning and afternoon. Don`t
expect deep convection here via the weak forcing but some
activity nonetheless. No changes to the inherited temperature
forecast with highs in the middle to upper 70s and lows in the
middle to mostly upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 4 AM Saturday...Surface low over the Ohio valley Tuesday
will track NE into New England by Wednesday, propelling a cold
front across the Carolinas, and a chance of showers and a few
TSTMS. The front will scoot offshore Wednesday. High pressure
will very briefly build in from the NW, but a progressive
southern stream system will snap us right back into a warm air
advection pattern Thursday, with a storm and decent rainfall
potential late Thursday into Friday. It appears right now high
pressure will build in just in time to bring a drying and slight
cooling trend into Saturday. Temperatures overall to run a
little above normal for late March this period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 06Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period in a
mild and moist weak southerly return flow. Winds will generally be
SE to S up to 10 kts in the aftn but otherwise 5 kts or less. An
expansive cu field just off shore may get pushed on shore in SE flow
and therefore included period of SCT to BKN deck around 3 to 5 k
ft...mainly affecting the coastal terminals. Expect some cu to
affect inland TAF sites Sun aftn also. The mid levels will continue
dry but SW flow in the mid to upper levels will continue to feed
cirrus over the area. A few SHRA possible late Sunday inland, but
not enough in areal coverage to warrant inclusion in the TAFs as of
yet.

Extended outlook...Flight category restrictions are possible in a
few bouts of showers and thunderstorms Mon through Tue and again
Thurs night. Expect VFR conditions after cold front moves through on
Wed lasting into Thurs.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 945 PM Saturday...Center of high pressure well offshore
and east of the Cape Hatteras will extend a ridge axis westward
Surface ridge axis axis will extend westward across Cape
Lookout and inland to Asheville. This sfc pressure orientation
will produce a SE to S winds north of Little River Inlet and
primarily a SE wind direction south of the Inlet. The sfc pg
will remain somewhat relaxed resulting with around 10 kt wind
speeds.

Significant seas will hover 2 to 3 ft with a pseudo southeast
ground swell at 7 to 8 seconds dominating. Look for this ground
swell to build slightly higher during the day on Sunday with
periods increasing to around 9 seconds and significant
seas at 2 to 4 ft.

Previous....................................................
As of 230 PM Saturday...A light south to south-easterly flow of 10
kts will continue through the near term as high pressure continues
its hold over the western Atlantic. Winds near shore this afternoon
and Sunday afternoon will be a little bit higher, in the 10 to 15
kt range, and gustier as the afternoon sea breeze circulation sets
up. Seas will remain right around the 3 ft range through the period.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...High pressure anchored offshore will keep a
southeast flow across the waters through the period. Speeds will be
unremarkable with ten knots or so throughout. A slightly stronger
sea breeze signal is noted for Monday afternoon than recent days
spawning some convection inland and this may kick up speeds briefly.
Significant seas will be 2-4 feet.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 4 AM Saturday...Showers and a few TSTMS can be expected
Tuesday as a frontal system crosses the waters. This will also
cause winds to go flat into Wednesday with very weak high
pressure or a back door cold front, but resuming an onshore
component into Thursday, as another low pressure approaches
from the west. Seas 3-5 feet in a combination of SE swell and
local wind waves. A small craft advisory or exercise caution
statement may be needed by Thursday evening as the low nears
for gusty southerly winds and elevated seas.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...RGZ



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