Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 300833
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
333 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...

.Short Term...Today through Monday

Main forecast issue in ongoing thunderstorm activity especially
over eastern parts of the forecast area. Models including latest
HRRR have linear MCS line rapidly moving out of the forecast area
by late morning. Will continue with this trend. Water vapor shows
shortwave lifting through east Texas with convection continuing to
initiate along an upper jet streak that is approaching the area.
This may enhance the severe potential of this line during the
morning hours with hail and damaging winds possible. Also..will
need to monitor heavy rain threat especially over Jeff Davis and
Allen parishes for the next several hours.

Tornado watch will continue mainly in Louisiana. May be able to
clear some parishes in SW Louisiana before sunrise.

Current wind advisory configuration looks good with advisory
expiring from west to east during the morning hours.

High pressure will build over the area tonight and Monday. Cooler
and drier weather is expected with low temperatures possibly
dropping into the 40s across east Texas and central Louisiana.

.Long Term...Monday night through Saturday
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday. Upper trough will dig
into the Southern Plains.  Will increase rain chances beginning
Tuesday night as increasing thte is forecasted and short wave energy
approaches.  High rain chances are forecasted for Wednesday and
Wednesday night as the cold front approaches and advances as low
pressure waves ride along it. Drier weather trend is expected for
Friday through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
In the near term...will continue coastal flood advisory with high
tide late this morning. At this time...expect tides to range from
3-3.8 feet above MLLW.

Will continue with SCA through 21Z for nearshore and offshore
waters. Gradient is forecasted to weaken so may be able to cancel
early.

Gradient is forecasted to strengthen Tuesday. Winds behind the front
Wednesday may be strong enough to maintain SCAs until high
pressure builds over the area on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  51  80  55 / 100  10   0   0
LCH  76  53  81  60 /  80  10   0   0
LFT  78  56  82  59 / 100  10   0   0
BPT  76  52  81  62 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LAZ041-042-073-074.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

     Wind Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for LAZ052>055.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ215-216.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for TXZ215.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ435-
     450-452-455-470-472-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from this afternoon through late
     tonight for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ430-432.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from 10 AM CDT this morning through
     this afternoon for GMZ430-432.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...04



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