


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
774 FXUS64 KLCH 160557 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1257 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - An upper ridge overhead will limit cloud cover and thunderstorm activity this afternoon allowing afternoon highs to climb into the mid to upper 90s. - A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for south central Louisiana Thursday through Saturday. - Heavy rainfall from a tropical disturbance will have the potential to produce rainfall totals of 1-6 inches Thursday through Saturday with amounts of up to 15 inches possible in a few locations across south central Louisiana. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A slack ridge of high pressure currently rests across the Midsouth extending west into the Southern Plains. This will create a warm afternoon with highs today in the mid to upper 90`s over interior locations. Without hesitation, the big picture over the next several days will be impacts associated with a tropical disturbance moving east across the northern Gulf waters today. As of the time of this latest forecast package, the primary impacts are going to be hydro driven. It`s important to note excessive rainfall risks associated with tropical moisture can become hidden behind the concerns of winds and other severe modes. Regardless of development, the concern for flash flooding is first and foremost. In collaboration with the Storm Prediction Center, there are no outlined risks for severe weather at this time through the end of the work week. However, in our discussions with the Weather Prediction Center, we do believe the threat of flash flooding will increase through Friday. Briefly elaborating on the evolution, we have an upper level low parked off the TX / MEX Gulf Coast. This trough will slowly migrate west into the Sierra Madres leaving an easterly flow pattern across the northern Gulf. These light winds will help serve as a steering mechanism to carry the tropical disturbance from the Florida Panhandle toward the Mississippi Delta by Thursday. However, moisture carrying westward with the primary flow aloft will begin to overspread by Wednesday. Periodic rounds of rainfall will spread over SWLA and later SETX with increasing coverage through Thursday. Kowalski / 30 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 By Friday morning, the tropical disturbance will begin to interact with weak continental ridging extending across the Southern Plains. Deterministic models are hesitant to show further tropical development at this point. However, the moisture will still be present even as this system starts to become disorganized at that time. Guidance has been congruent over the last couple days illustrating a healthy plume of moisture encroaching further inland over the forecast area with the potential of having periods of heavy slow moving showers / storms. A moderate risk for excessive rainfall is in place to account for this increased activity through Friday night. Hereafter, while there is some uncertainty regarding the devolvement of the tropical disturbance through the rest of the weekend, much of the guidance pulls the disturbance / trough inland to become disorganized and absorbed into the the mid- latitude pattern. Periods of rainfall are likely through Saturday but do begin to decrease into Sunday. Following the disturbance, will be an expanding high pressure from the western Atlantic into the central Gulf which will facilitate south to southeasterly flowing and keep the isolated chances of shower / storms into the following week ahead. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions forecast to remain across all TAF sites through the nocturnal hours. Potential exists for brief ground BR toward AEX during the dawn hours. Hereafter mixing will allow for VFR condtions to remain through the latter morning hours today. && .MARINE... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 High pressure extending across the northern Gulf will maintain light onshore winds and low seas through this afternoon. Winds and seas will increase Thursday through the weekend as a tropical disturbance moves across the northern gulf. There is a 40% chance of this disturbance strengthening into a tropical storm. Regardless of development, gusty winds and widespread rain is expected Thursday through Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Light southerly winds will maintain dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s through Wednesday. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values are expected to range from 40 - 70% today, increasing 50 - 70% by tomorrow afternoon. Widespread rain and gusty winds are expected Thursday through Saturday as a tropical disturbance moves across the northern gulf impacting the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 96 75 95 74 / 10 0 40 30 LCH 93 76 91 76 / 10 10 60 60 LFT 92 77 88 75 / 20 30 90 60 BPT 93 74 91 74 / 10 0 40 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Saturday evening for LAZ032-033-044-045-055-143-152>154-243-252>254. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...30