Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 092236
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
536 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA/TSRA NOW MOVING S OF ARA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHER SHRA
POSSIBLE THRU 01Z FOR LFT/LCH/BPT. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT S WINDS. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THU
AFTERNOON...THUS PLACED PROB30 GROUP DURING THIS PERIOD.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NERN GULF
RIDGING WWD AND MAINTAINING A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW...WHILE THE WRN GULF REGION CONTINUES TO
LIE IN A BIT OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT. A DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE TROF
HAS BEEN HELPING FIRE CONVECTION OVER SERN LA...LINGERING WWD INTO
THE ACADIANA ZONES ATTM.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH SMALL POPS WERE RETAINED OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE SERN ZONES AS HIGHER MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO LINGER IN
THIS AREA ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES
HANGING AROUND. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE SOMETHING OF A REPEAT OF
TODAY WITH THE WEAKNESS ALOFT PERSISTING ALONG WITH TRIGGER TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND DEEPEST MOISTURE OVER ACADIANA. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION PERIOD AS THE RIDGING TO OUR WEST
BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND POPS ARE NUDGED
DOWNWARD A BIT TO ACCOUNT.

BY THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO BUILD JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA WHICH SHOULD CUT OFF MOST OF THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. STILL AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH ALL THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THAT WE COULD SQUEEZE OUT A STORM OR TWO
DESPITE THE ADDITIONAL CAPPING...THUS HAVE DECIDED TO RETAIN VERY
SLIM POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WORK WEEK THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN OR GET NUDGED
BACK TO THE WEST PUTTING US BACK IN A WARM MOIST AND MOSTLY
UNCAPPED AIRMASS...THUS CHANCE POPS ARE BACK TO THE LAST FEW
DAYTIME PERIODS.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE NWRN GULF SHOULD MAINTAIN A
MAINLY LIGHT AND SRLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  90  75  92  75 /  20  30  10  30  10
KBPT  75  89  75  91  75 /  10  30  10  30  10
KAEX  74  90  73  94  74 /  20  30  30  30  10
KLFT  75  89  75  92  75 /  30  40  20  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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