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000
FXUS64 KLCH 051135
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
535 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA...ALONG
WITH VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR THRU 15Z. AFTER 15Z...EXPECT MAINLY IFR CEILINGS
THRU THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CHANCES OF SHRA INCREASES
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THUS CONTINUED VCSH. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU AEX BY 00Z...02-03Z FOR BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA. POST
FRONTAL WX...CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR IFR/LIFR THRESHOLDS...NNE
WINDS 10-12 KTS...AND BETTER CHANCES OF SHRA...WHICH IS INDICATED
IN ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

DML


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013/

DISCUSSION...
LATE NIGHT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT ORIGINATING FROM
A LOW OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES THEN EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY/MID-SOUTH TO NERN AND CNTL TX. QUITE A TEMP
SPREAD ACROSS THE FRONT WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AHEAD
OF IT OVER THE WRN GULF STATES...DOWN TO THE 20S/30S OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOTED WITH
WINDS RESPONDING ON THE ORDER OF SUSTAINED 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30
KNOTS OVER NRN TX/SRN OK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST HELPING CARVE A DEEP TROF
OVER THE WRN CONUS...HELPING BACK WINDS TO A MORE MOISTURE-RICH
SWRLY DIRECTION ALOFT. CLOSER TO HOME MAINLY A MUGGY/CLOUDY/BREEZY
NIGHT WITH THE DENSE MARINE FOG PLAYING NICE AND LIMITING ITSELF
TO MAINLY THE COASTLINE PER LATEST REPORTS.

AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED RAIN CHANCES BEGIN MOVING UPWARDS TODAY AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT WITH THAT
BETTER FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC...PLUS THE APPROACH OF THE SFC FRONT
AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT. POPS WILL FURTHER INCREASE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS GOOD OVERRUNNING
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT AND WORKS IN CONCERT WITH THE LINGERING
DEEP MOISTURE. THE OTHER BIG STORY WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE VERY
CHILLY TEMPERATURES SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG CAA IS
PROGGED AFTER FROPA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
OVER THE NWRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW.

THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES CONTAINED POSSIBLE WINTRY WEATHER FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF
ZONES WHICH STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SHALLOW BUT SUFFICIENT SUBFREEZING LAYER FOR FREEZING
RAIN DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ATTM NOT SEEING THE NEED
TO EXPAND THIS AREA OF FREEZING PRECIP SWD AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM FOR SUCH WEATHER.

A FAIRLY MESSY WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
OVERRUNNING PATTERN LINGERS AND GETS AIDED BY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE WRN GULF. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS PUSHES EWD ACROSS THE
CNTL CONUS AND DRY AIR TAKES OVER THROUGH THE COLUMN. THE CANADIAN
AIRMASS PROGGED TO SLIP SWD ACROSS THE WRN/CNTL CONUS WILL
MAINTAIN COOL TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
DENSE FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND SRN
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND LAKES THIS MORNING...THUS THE ADVISORY
ISSUED EARLIER WILL BE CONTINUED. WITH GOOD CAA AND A VERY TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING
SOMETIME ON FRIDAY AND LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG SRLY FLOW
LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE ERN WATERS AS THE SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN GULF...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW MOVES NEWD
FOLLOWED BY A RE-INFORCING FRONT AND ANOTHER TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND
IT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  57  57  38  43 /  40  50  60  50  50
KBPT  75  51  52  38  41 /  40  50  60  50  50
KAEX  72  47  48  34  38 /  60  70  70  50  50
KLFT  77  64  65  38  44 /  40  40  70  50  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$