Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLCH 241209
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  80  80  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  60  80  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 /  80  80  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.