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000
FXUS64 KLCH 270529
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1129 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 27/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRATO-CU BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FEET WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. THIS
WILL BRING ABOUT MVFR CONDITIONS. GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH WILL ALSO KEEP NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL HELP MIX OUT THE CLOUDS BY
MID TO LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TARGET THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER THE TEMP AND WIND GRIDS WERE MODIFIED WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT/TOMORROW AND THE SCA EXPANDED IN THE AM.
ALSO CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED EARLIER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY OVER LOWER ACADIANA AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SO SKY
COVER WAS INC.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
1041HPA CANADIAN HIGH OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL BRING A LIGHT
FREEZE TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 190 TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP
OVERNIGHT SO A HARD FREEZE WILL BE AVOIDED. A ZONAL FLOW WILL
DRIVE THIS HIGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, MAINTAINING A
TIGHT GRADIENT AND A COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM...SOME JET CIRRUS AND MODERATE WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES TNITE WHERE I
SHADED TEMPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...KEPT TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS EASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE. RAIN CHANCES BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS A
DIGGING WESTERN UPPER TROF COMBINES WITH THE DEPARTING POLAR HIGH
OFF THE EAST COAST TO PROVIDE A GOOD SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE AS
WELL AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

BY THURSDAY MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS
FASTER ON THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE FAVORED AND IS THEREFORE MUCH WARMER,
BRINGING THE FRONT THRU ON THURSDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE REINFORCING SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR.
WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND REMAIN MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH TIGHT GRADIENT.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  34  50  34  59  52 /   0   0  10  20  40
KBPT  36  50  35  58  52 /   0   0  10  20  40
KAEX  31  41  29  55  48 /   0   0  10  10  40
KLFT  33  49  35  60  50 /   0   0  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$