Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLCH 272302
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
602 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR THRU 01Z...THUS THE TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS. AFTERWARDS...MAY
SEE ISO SHRA REMAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE MOISTURE STREAMS WEST ACROSS
THE N GULF INTO SE TX/S LA. THUS...LEFT VCSH IN THESE SITES AS
WELL. FOR AEX...CONVECTION WELL SOUTH OF THIS TERMINAL...WITH VFR
EXPECTED THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLE INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY
TOWARDS THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME. AFTER 16Z THU...SE WINDS 8-10 KTS
EXPECTED...WITH APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIFT BY THE
AFTERNOON. THUS...PLACED VCTS IN ALL SITES BY 16Z...WITH PROB30
GROUP 18-24Z FOR TSRA & MVFR VSBY/CEILINGS.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE
WEST THIS AFTN. THIS AREA IS SITUATED BENEATH A TROF IN THE MID AND
UPPER LVLS NR THE TX COAST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES IS
PRODUCING SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE NW GULF AND
INLAND ACRS SRN LA/SE TX MAINLY ALONG AND S OF I-10. SO FAR THIS
AFTN...RAIN HAS MISSED MOST OF THE OBSERVATION LOCATIONS...WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACRS THE
REGION.

DISCUSSION...
THE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF WILL MOVE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT...REACHING THE TX COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER SERN/COASTAL TX
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY
INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING...WITH THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTING OVER LAND AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 DURING THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY...AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE SURGES NORTH IN ADVANCE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING EAST OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS. PRECIP WATER
VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1-2.2 INCHES...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL LOOKS TO STAY OFFSHORE...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE INLAND AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER
OR MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING OR URBAN AREAS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 90 TO THE
LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SCT TO NUMRS SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP
TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 80S.

THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE CNTL STATES WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NE ON
SUNDAY WITH A HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER BACK DOWN TO MORE TYPICAL SLT TO LOW END CHC MAINLY AFTN
CONVECTION. AFTN TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TOWARD THE
TEXAS COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. IN ADDITION...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  90  76  89  76 /  20  40  30  30  50
KBPT  77  88  77  87  77 /  30  50  40  30  50
KAEX  73  91  74  90  74 /  20  40  30  30  40
KLFT  75  90  76  90  76 /  20  40  30  30  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.