Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
FXUS64 KLCH 251101
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
601 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
For the 05/25/16 1200 UTC TAF package.
Abundant cloud cover across the region early this morning,
yielding generally a mix of VFR and MVFR cigs at the TAF sites.
Numerical MOS and model data suggest this should continue through
mid to late morning, with all sites except for KBPT expected to
improve to prevailing VFR. South winds are expected to increase
and become a bit gusty during the late morning and afternoon,
before settling down again this evening. MVFR CIGS to return
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 436 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/
Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows weak upper ridging over
the nw gulf coast, with an upstream low/trough digging spinning
toward srn CA. A disturbance embedded in swly flow north of the
region was producing a cluster of strong to svr storms acrs ern
OK. High level clouds are noted streaming over the top of the
ridge and into the forecast area. Meanwhile, lower clouds are
spreading north on moist low lvl sly winds between sfc high pres
over the Carolinas and lower pres over wrn TX. The sly winds are
also producing rather muggy conditions with temperatures in the
middle to upper 70s which is about 5 degrees warmer than this time
Sfc high pres will remain east of the region through the weekend.
This will result in persistent sely winds that will maintain a
warm and moist gulf airmass over the area. Upper level features
will be the main factor influencing rain chcs through the week
into the weekend.
Weak upper ridging should still be strong enough today to limit
convection although a isltd shower or storm will be possible
mainly over wrn portions of the area. The upper ridge will
gradually break down Thursday as the low over srn CA moves east.
This trough will produce a series of disturbances that will eject
over the srn plains through the Saturday, resulting in a daily chc
for showers or storms. Rain chcs will be highest acrs se TX on
Thursday and Friday where best lift/energy associated with
impulses aloft will reside. Model guidance suggests that by
Thursday night a convective complex will be crossing TX in concert
with a mid-lvl trough. This activity is fcst to approach our se TX
counties during the day Friday, and some storms could reach svr
limits as they encounter daytime instability and decent wind
shear. SPC Day 3 outlook indicates a SLGT risk for se TX with
MRGL further east into LA. In addition to svr weather, storms
will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall as precip water
values approach 2 inches which abnormally high for this time of
year. Widespread flooding is not expected to be an issue, but
localized flooding, mainly in low-lying or urban areas, will be
possible with any training storms. By Friday evening, storms
should begin to weaken as diurnal heating lessens.
Chc POPs will continue on Saturday but most of the energy
associated with the upper low will be shifting further ne away fm
the area as the system moves toward the Great Lakes. Upper lvl
ridging will gradually build back west over the area by Sunday,
with precip chcs trending back toward minimal lvls.
In the absence of any frontal boundaries, warm and humid conditions
are expected to continue through the period with temperatures near
or slightly abv normal. For today, aftn highs will be quite warm
with temperatures reaching the upper 80s/near 90. Aftn highs will
taper back toward the lower to middle 80s Thursday through
Saturday as clouds/convection increase in coverage then climb
back to the upper 80s/near 90 by early next week with the return
of upper ridging. Low temperatures will range from the upper
60s/near 70 north to the lower/middle 70s south.
Onshore flow can be expected through the fcst period. Winds will
generally be light to modt but a few periods of modt to strong
winds will be possible mainly tonight and Thursday night into
Friday as a series of lows develop over the high plains. Exercise
caution conditions are expected at these times, but winds and seas
may increase enough to warrant small craft advisories. Rain chcs
are expected to stay on the low side, but occasional nocturnal
showers and storms will be possible.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 90 73 86 71 / 20 10 40 30
LCH 87 75 84 73 / 20 10 30 20
LFT 88 74 86 73 / 20 10 30 20
BPT 87 75 83 74 / 10 10 30 20
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT this morning for