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000
FXUS64 KLCH 192351
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
651 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
For 00z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Satellite imagery shows plentiful cirrus flowing overhead as a
weak trof digs through the Rockies into Texas...farther down, sfc
obs show diurnal cu has mostly dissipated with daytime heating on
the wane. Expecting VFR conditions to continue through the night
time hours although forecast time-height sections do show a little
low-level moisture pooling...some fog guidance shows the
possibility of restrictions to visibility but chances look slim
enough to ignore for now. VFR will continue to prevail through
tomorrow with only slim rain chances (VCSH mention for now) at
KBPT as activity ramps up with the shortwave to our west.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...High pressure is over the southeast states at the
surface and aloft. A trough is over the Pacific Coast.

Through the next couple of day the ridge will continue east bound
and the trough will advance toward the plains. This will serve to
gradually break down the upper ridge locally and allow a few
showers and storms by Friday with a few streamer showers moving in
by the morning. Moisture will continue to increase for Saturday
with scattered showers and storms possible.

Saturday low pressure will develop on the lee of the Rockies and
move across the plains. This will increase winds locally and
provide support for severe weather in the plains. The surface low
will continue into the Mississippi Valley by Sunday and an
associated cold front will move into the northern gulf coast.
Ahead of the front the area will be fairly unstable and moist
which may allow for a few strong storms to develop along and ahead
of the front.

Early next week high pressure will build, however a secondary
front may move through by Tuesday. This will provide cool and dry
weather with lows in the 40s for 2 or 3 night, depending on
location.

MARINE...A moderate east to southeast flow will occur through mid
Friday as high pressure departs and low pressure moves across the
northern plains. Another area of low pressure will move across the
central plains this weekend which will also keep elevated onshore
winds in place. SCA conditions will be possible by Sunday night
behind a cold front that will sweep through during the afternoon
or evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  59  83  66  84 /  10  10  20  50
LCH  66  84  70  85 /  10  20  20  40
LFT  64  84  69  85 /  10  10  20  50
BPT  69  82  71  84 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution through Friday afternoon for GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$