Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 032050
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
350 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NERN GULF RIDGING WWD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA...MAINTAINING A
LIGHT MAINLY SRLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
RIDGING OVER THE CNTL CONUS...WHILE WEAK LOW ALOFT CONTINUES
DRIFTING SWD OVER THE WRN GULF. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION CONTINUES OVER LOWER ACADIANA.

SMALL POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GOOD
LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
SOMEWHAT PLANTED OVER THE SERN CONUS/NERN GULF. OUR PESKY LOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SWD ALONG THE TX COAST BUT
CORE OF CNTL CONUS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST...THUS
KEEPING ANY POTENTIAL CAPPING EFFECTS MOSTLY LIMITED TO PERHAPS
THE FAR WRN ZONES AT BEST. LACK OF GOOD FORCING HOWEVER WILL ALSO
LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL...THUS POPS MOSTLY REMAIN IN THE 20/30
PERCENT REGION. AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND ON INTO NEXT
WEEK A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO DRIFT WWD
ACROSS THE SERN CONUS WHICH COULD HELP BOOST RAIN CHANCES A BIT AS
WE GET DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINLY LIGHT SRLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED MAINLY OVER THE NERN GULF. NO FLAGS ARE
ANTICIPATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS AS A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  93  74  95 /  20  30  20  30
LCH  74  89  74  92 /  20  40  30  30
LFT  74  90  75  93 /  30  40  30  30
BPT  74  90  74  92 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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