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000
FXUS64 KLCH 011801
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1201 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...LOOKS LIKE WE GOT DRY SLOTTED PER RECENT VISIBLE
IMAGERY WITH THE ACADIANA TERMINALS REMAINING IN CLOUD COVER WITH
LIGHT PRECIP. BACKED OFF AND IMPROVED TAFS TO VFR ALTHOUGH I WOULD
NOT RULE OUT ARA AND LFT GOING MVFR...WITH A GOOD SWLY FLOW WE
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRYING TO KEEP WITH CURRENT TRENDS.

STRONG BUT FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

UPDATE...
A FEW LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ONGOING THIS MORNING MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BEING SPAWNED BY A NORTHWARD
PUSHING WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF DALLAS AND IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST AT ROUGHLY 20 MPH. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY AFTER NOON AND DEVELOP INTO A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT
TRAVERSES THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AT
CURRENT SPEEDS THE FRONT WILL REACH TYLER AND JASPER COUNTIES
AROUND 4:00 PM AND LAKE CHARLES BETWEEN 8:00 AND 10:00 PM. FORECAST
IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING AND NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR TO IFR CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. WE MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO WITHIN THE IFR TO
MVFR RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND THEN
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND MARKEDLY INCREASE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK IN
AND STABILIZING THE AIRMASS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE NEXT FEATURES THAT WILL
AFFECT THE REGION. THE FIRST IS THE DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE OTHER IS THE LARGE GYRE
THAT IS SINKING SOUTH ACROSS NW MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE COAST FRONT
THE NORTHERN GULF AND RETURN FLOW IS WILL UNDERWAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE NOW CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE WAA
AHEAD THIS FEATURE AND THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS LAGGING
ACROSS NW OKLAHOMA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS TODAY...MAINLY TO DEPICT THE
PRECIPITATION TIMING A LITTLE BETTER LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL OCCUR AROUND THE 00Z TIME FRAME. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY AND MAY
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BIT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SOME AREAS MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

STILL EXPECTING FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TUESDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS. THE GFS SLOWED THE SYSTEM
DOWN QUITE A BIT AND TAKES IT A LITTLE SOUTH OF WHERE IT DID 24
HOURS AGO. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING AND
THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME SPREADING
OUT OF THE POPS DUE TO A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY. THUS STILL
EXPECT THE RAIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND START
TO WRAP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER POPS WERE BUMPED
UP A BIT ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE GFS SLOWER MOVEMENT...AND WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS CENLA.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BE WELL INTO SCA RANGE WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WILL LEAVE
THE GALE WATCH AS IS FOR NOW IN CASE THE 12Z RUNS COME IN WITH
HIGHER WINDS. HOWEVER DID GO AHEAD AND ADD SCA TO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND VERMILION BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ADDED SCEC TO THE
SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  39  50  34  53 /  50  60   0   0  10
KBPT  73  39  50  36  53 /  50  70   0   0  20
KAEX  71  35  47  30  53 /  60  40   0   0  10
KLFT  72  41  48  33  54 /  70  60   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE
     LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY.

&&

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&&

$$