Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 310444
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1144 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms were weakening around KLBB and KPVW late this
evening, and after making a run towards KCDS have weakened south
of there as well. Leaving a tempo thunder mention at KLBB through
07z near tonights mesoscale convective system, but not other
locations. Short term RAP has been trending a little more
extensive with an MVFR cloud layer near KLBB and KPVW later
tonight so have added that roughly 09z to 17z. Latest solutions
agree that an outflow infused cold front will press southward with
good enough thunder chances to add a 30 percent probability for
tomorrow evening for each location. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A very pleasant Memorial Day afternoon was in progress across the
forecast area as the atmosphere continued to slowly recover from
Sunday night`s convective activity. The remnants of that storm
complex, believe it or not, cleared the Texas coast around noon and
is now over the western Gulf of Mexico as of 19Z. Surface wind has
come back around to the south across West Texas, dewpoints have
climbed back into the 60s save the western South Plains and
temperatures were in the 70s and lower 80s. This was making for
some well-capped mixed layer CAPE around 1000 j/kg and climbing.

Next disturbance in modest mid-level SW flow aloft was moving
northeast across New Mexico this afternoon and regional 88D radars
continue to show an increase in convective coverage coincident with
this feature. There is decent agreement among short range/high
resolution models of scattered storms advecting/developing across
the forecast area very late this afternoon and evening as the
disturbance approaches. Low end CAPE/effective shear should prevent
any widespread severe convective episode, but isolated, low-end
severe storms will certainly be possible, mainly before sunset.

Similar pattern will exist on Tuesday with the, possibly important,
wrinkle of a weak surface cool front dropping through the Texas
Panhandle. Otherwise, not much for a forecaster to hang his hat
on as far as favored locations for additional precipitation.
Again, decent agreement from model QPF of a complex or clusters of
storms developing ahead/along frontal boundary with possible
assistance from any additional disturbances in SW flow aloft. This
certainly seems plausible and will shotgun high chance to likely
POPs from west to east in the grids. JW

LONG TERM...
The upper low currently centered over southwest Arizona is progged
to translate only slowly eastward, emerging over Far West Texas
early Thursday and progressing to the center part of the state by
Friday. In addition, a storm system moving across the northern tier
of the nation and southern Canada will send a cold front southward
into South Plains region by late Tuesday night or early Wednesday.
This pattern will set the stage for a prolonged stretch of unsettled
weather through much of the work week. There is a good signal that
one or two MCS(s) will form in the region tomorrow evening and
track southeastward. Marginal shear and modest instability could
support a few strong/severe storms, but attention would likely
evolve to a localized heavy rain threat as the convection grows
upscale. The exact location of any potential MCS track remains
somewhat uncertain, but most of the CWA will have a good shot of
seeing at least some precipitation and PoPs in the 50-70 percent
range were maintained. The front in the area along with the
approaching upper level trough will keep good storm chances in the
forecast Wednesday into Thursday, though the better chances
should gradually shift further to the southeast with time in tow
with the upper trough/low. The best rain chances should shift
downstate by late week, though some NWP solutions do hold the
upper level weakness close enough to warrant maintaining low
thunder chances across portions of the Rolling Plains late Friday
into this weekend.

In the wake of this week`s storm system some form of northerly flow
aloft will develop over West Texas and be maintain downstream of a
western ridge through the conclusion of the extended forecast. There
are even signals in the guidance that northwesterly flow convection
could threaten the far northwestern/western zones by the end of the
weekend into early next week. Given this we have introduced slim
storm chances across our far northwestern zones Sunday and
Monday.

Highs through the extended will be on the low side of average, with
the coolest days expected behind the FROPA Wednesday and Thursday
when most locations may not make it out of the 70s. In contrast,
decent moisture and cloud cover through much of the week should keep
overnight lows near to slightly above average.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/05


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