Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 281711

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1211 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

North to northeast winds to diminish late this afternoon then
light winds through the remainder of the forecast period. VFR
conditions expected though Monday morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 614 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017/

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017/

Cold front moved through overnight pretty much as forecast.
Convection was firing along the front just to our south early this
morning as the frontal boundary hits the returning dryline.
However, since the front will continue quickly south, it will
take the rain chances south with it. Gusty northerly winds early
this morning will taper off this afternoon. The cooler air behind
the front will lower daytime high temperatures to the upper 70s or
lower 80s this afternoon.

Surface winds will swing from the north around to the east and
southeast late tonight and Monday. Although significant moisture
will not return until Tuesday into Wednesday, models still show
some storms forming over northeast New Mexico Monday afternoon
and then moving southeast toward the area overnight Monday night.
The NAM forecast model is the most agressive with the precipitaion
moving into the South Plains. However, we`re going with other
longer range models which have consistently showed this convection
dying out before it reaches our forecast area. We do have a
slight chance indicated for the southwest Panhandle Monday night.

Southeast surface winds are expected to slowly increase low level
moisture Tuesday into Wednesday. Precipitable water values are
forecast to remain low, close to 0.6 inch, today through Monday
night and then increase to values closer to 1.2 or 1.3 inches by
Wednesday. This better moisture is expected to remain in place
through Friday and with it we expect increased chances of rain.
Also guidance shows a weak upper trough digging into California
and the Southwest, then moving slowly east toward our area toward
the end of the week. Because of weak upper winds Wednesday through
Thursday, we`ll need to watch for the possibility of slow moving
storms with localized heavy rainfall. JL




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