Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 262342

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
642 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Winds will go light tonight as a surface high pressure system
settles over the area which will be more favorable for fog
development on Thursday morning. Fog will be possible at all TAF
sites but greater chances will exist at KLBB and KPVW. At this
point, MVFR visbys are most likely.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/

A very stout upper level high pressure ridge jutting northward into
the southwest deserts and southern Rockies this afternoon will
become our dominant weather feature by Thursday as it leans a little
to the east. This ridge in the h500 to h200 millibar layer is
unusually strong for this time of year with return rates approaching
30 years. In the short term overnight, a weak surface ridge will
dominate with modest low level moisture and light winds. Foreseeable
for patchy fog early Thursday favoring our southern and western
areas, as supported by both RAP and to some extent NAM12 and HRRR
short term solutions. Not clear if this will have potential for hard
visibility drops, as indicated by the RAP13, so may need some
clarification later.  Tonight will generally be a little cooler;
drier air in the northwest should allow decent cooling below
guidance numbers that area especially. But by late Thursday morning
and for the remainder of the day, we will see considerable sun,
light winds, and warming at least 5 degrees and approaching 10
degrees above normal for some locations. RMcQueen

No big changes to the extended this iteration with warm and dry
conditions the main theme through at least early next week. The
culprit supplying the late October warmth (and dry conditions) is an
impressive upper ridge that will build squarely over the region
late week before flattening this weekend and then shifting over
the Deep South next week. Temperatures are expected to peak this
weekend when highs will be in the middle to upper 80s at most
locales. Gradually lowering heights/thicknesses should allow
temperatures to edge downward early next week, though they will
likely still reside on the warm side of average. Eventually
increasing low-level moisture and some form of an upper level
disturbance approaching from the west may supply a chance of rain
to the region by next Wednesday or Thursday, though details remain
sketchy at this point.



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