Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 222325 AAA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
525 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. Wind
speeds will decrease until becoming light and variable after
sunset, then gradually return to the southwest my late Monday
morning.

Jordan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/

SHORT TERM...
The upper level low pressure system responsible for our winds and
showers/virga yesterday has pulled well east, and is now creating a
massive severe weather outbreak across the southeastern U.S. this
afternoon. Behind this system, we have seen breezy northwesterly
winds that will continue to slowly relax as the afternoon continues.
After sunset, winds will calm considerably, for the first time in
several days it seems. Tomorrow will see brief upper ridging pass
over the region which will turn winds aloft and at the surface
southwesterly. As such, we will see the warmest day of the week with
highs well above normal in the lower 70s for all but the
southwestern TX Panhandle, which may hang on to the upper 60s. Winds
in the afternoon will turn only slightly breezy at 15-20 mph, mild
compared to recent days. High clouds are expected to stream across
the region during the day in advance of the next storm system for
Tuesday.

LONG TERM...
The next upper level low pressure trough across the intermountain
west will slowly advance across and through our area Tuesday and
Wednesday. Upper level heights will drop Tuesday and a Pacific
Cold front will slice eastward through the area. And an upper low
will eject out of the western trough into the central and northern
plains. Winds will turn westerly and in spite of cooling, we are
still expecting deep mixing to around 700 millibars. This should
tap into stronger flow aloft, and lead to solid windy conditions
for much of the area. Tuesday is still looking as if Wind
Advisories are likely to be issued. So, relatively few changes
were made.

A cold frontal boundary will move southward early Wednesday with
mixed success across the Caprock. Wednesday should be cooler
anyway with the lowered heights as the base of the upper level
trough will be sliding across. But highs that day are a bit in
question if the coolest near-surface airmass mixes out and off to
the east for areas on the Caprock by Wednesday afternoon. We
nudged highs upward a category Wednesday for now; moderate bust
potential on this day and for that matter on Thursday as upper
flow recovers and turns more zonal. Trends will be something to
watch for in days ahead.

A more solid frontal push looks to time for Thursday night, in
tandem with an upper trough moving southward from the northern
Rockies. Anyway, details on these temperature particulars as well
will need to be ironed in coming days. Dry conditions look a good
bet through the coming week and into next weekend. RMcQueen

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather concerns exist across the southwestern South
Plains for Monday afternoon. With the approach of our next storm
system, southwesterly winds are expected to increase to 15-20 mph
with gusts to 30 in the afternoon. RH values are expected to fall
into the upper teens across the area of concern.

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday as the
strongest wind core aloft passes overhead. Winds look solid on
Tuesday and Red Flag conditions are at least a low possibility,
though elevated Fire Danger looks a better possibility. With
modest cooling, relative humidity may not drop low enough to work
into Red Flag range. Keep in mind that Tuesday wind speeds should
easily reach into the 25 mph to 35 mph, or even 40 mph range
especially across the southwest Panhandle. RMcQueen

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

14/93/14


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