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350
FXUS64 KLUB 242325 AAA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
525 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. A wind
shift will move into KLBB and KPVW shortly but will struggle to
push any further east. After sunset, east to northeast wind will
return to KLBB/KPVW then gradually transition to the south during
the day Saturday at all three TAF sites.

Jordan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/

SHORT TERM...
As of 2pm, surface winds along the Texas/New Mexico border were
westerly around 15-20kts gusting as high as 30kts with the
temperature forecast right on track with highs in the mid 50s to low
60s. A small CU field that developed earlier this afternoon in the
extreme SW Texas Panhandle can be seen on IR imagery getting pushed
east and eroded by drier air and transported dust. Only question
left is how far east the elevated wind field and drier air mass will
struggle to make it by early this evening. Winds are expected to
peak by 21z as midlevel heights begin to rise, followed by gradual
surface ridging through the night as the surface ridge expands and
shifts from the Central Plains tonight toward the Gulf States by
tomorrow evening.

A cool night ahead as winds ease under clear skies. Lows will drop
into the upper teens along our northern zones and low to mid 20s for
the rest of us. Model guidance was unanimous in Saturdays highs
topping out in the mid 50s under mostly sunny skies. But as the day
progresses and winds increase out of the south and southeast for
areas east of the I27 corridor. Those of us along and west of I27
will succumb to the influence of surface pressure falls across
eastern NM and see more of a southwest surface trajectory that
should increase temps a few degrees on the Caprock.

LONG TERM...
Through Tuesday, we will continue to be influenced by the broad
upper level trough covering the western 75% of the country. Two
distinct low amplitude waves will plow through, the first Sunday
evening and the second appears timed now for Tuesday night. Mid
level wind maximum on the order of 70 knots looks possible for
both of these waves, spreading across the area Sunday afternoon
and then Tuesday afternoon.

For Sunday, solutions have trended towards quite a bit of upper
level and some mid level moistening, that very well could crimp
mixing potential. Surface pressure gradient seems fairly slack to
begin the day, but look to tighten on the Caprock during the
afternoon. So, some potential for a breezy or low-end windy day,
but not high confidence. In fact our MOS wind outlook is more on
the low end of the breezy spectrum. Anyway, we are not making much
of wind potential right now for Sunday, except late in the day
across western zones.

For Tuesday`s wave passage, solutions are quite similar in
appearance to Sunday`s setup. It`s early yet on writing wind off
on this day, however, and we are leaning still a little stronger
towards the windier CONSMOS forecast.

Oddly, Monday, in between waves, and with less clouds but still
decent mid level gradient and some surface pressure falls, may
turn into a windier day. So, followed CONSMOS solutions for
Monday.

A dry and slightly weaker northwest flow will follow Wednesday and
beyond, with no significant weather outlooked for now. And dry all
the way through. Temperatures will warm through Tuesday before
cooling late in the week. RMcQueen

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated westerly winds and low RH values across the extreme
southwest Texas Panhandle and western South Plains will begin to
gradually ease from mid afternoon today through the evening hours.
Saturday looks to offer a brief respite from fire weather concerns
though breezy southwesterly winds late Saturday afternoon across the
southwest Texas Panhandle along with RH values in the teens could
lead to a small window of elevated to maybe even low end critical
conditions. Fire weather concerns will increase again Sunday,
continuing through Tuesday as a progressive weather pattern across
the southern plains supports continued mild, dry and breezy
conditions.

As mentioned above, fire weather concerns will continue off and
on through Tuesday. Two distinct low amplitude upper level waves
will pass late Sunday and again Tuesday night. Both will spread
increasing winds aloft overhead late each day. Sunday may suffer
from limited mixing and thus we are leaning for a mostly breezy or
low end windy day, probably favoring elevated Fire Danger.
Tuesday may have better mixing potential but this is unclear. If
it does, critical fire concerns may develop. And Monday in
between, will still see at least moderate strength winds aloft,
deep mixing, and a gradually tightening surface pressure gradient.
So, some potential for elevated to critical on Monday as well.

The wind pattern is expected to gradually ease by Wednesday with a
cold front and a little weaker flow aloft lasting through the end
of the week. RMcQueen

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ021-022-027-
028-033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

14/93/14



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