Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 201138
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
638 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY
THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 635 AM SAT...DAMPENING SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS
REGION TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO WEAK SFC LOW FORMING TO
THE SE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. MDLS CONT
TO SHOW BULK OF RAIN OVER SRN TIER WITH LITTLE TO THE N WILL CONT
PREV FCST OF SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS N TO HIGH CHC/LIKELY SRN
TIER. EVEN ACROSS SRN TIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH EXPECTED. CLOUDS AND NE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPS COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY 45 TO 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM SAT...BULK OF MOISTURE WILL BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY
EVENING WITH JUST SMALL POP SRN CST EARLY THEN DRY. WILL CONT TO
HAVE GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPCLY CST.
SHLD SEE ENOUGH BREAKS FOR LOWS MAINLY 30 TO 35 INLAND WITH UPR
30S TO AROUND 40 BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM SATURDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE FL/GA/SC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THAT
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MONDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE LOW IS ILL-DEFINED AND WEAK
WITH CONSENSUS OF AROUND 1015 MB LOW OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY MON
EVENING. MINOR TWEAKS TO ONGOING FORECAST POPS/TEMPS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...KEEPING SUNDAY DRY AND COOLER THEN INCREASING POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT TO LIKELIES LATE WITH MILD TEMPS MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE TEMP
GUIDANCE HAS HAD A COOL BIAS AS OF LATE SO HEDGED CLOSER TO GFS
MOS WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING NEAR
1370 METERS FOR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
SHARP TEMP GRADIENT FROM THE COAST TO THE COASTAL PLAINS.

A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZED RAIN COME IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
MAIN LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...AND MODELS DEVELOPING A
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. AREA WILL
BE IN VICINITY OF APPROACHING DIGGING JET STREAK...AND LARGE SCALE
OMEGA/FRONTOGENSIS WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF HWY 17 AS EXPECTING TO
SEE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED...WITH MODELS SHOWING 0-6KM SHEAR 40-50KT AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL HELICITY VALUES DUE TO BACKED SSE SFC FLOW. TEMPS WILL BE
MILD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES HOLDING IN THE 50S AND EVEN
INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO THE 60S.

PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT WINGS THROUGH AND DEEP LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS
TO DRY THE COLUMN. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BUILD INTO
THE 1380-1390 METER RANGE...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST YIELDING DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS
DAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 50S THURSDAY...MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM SAT...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THRU PERIOD. OVC SKIES TODAY
AS WEAKENING SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES. BEST CHC OF LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE MID/LATE MORN THRU AFTN OVER SRN SITES HOWEVER SHLD NOT BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBYS MUCH. CIGS SHLD MAINLY HOLD ABOVE 3000
FT THIS AFTN HOWEVER DID AND TEMPO MVFR FOR A PERIOD LATER TODAY AT
OAJ. OVERNIGHT GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER AS PRECIP ENDS SRN
TIER...HOWEVER MOST GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW VFR CIGS. THERE
IS PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE AROUND SO SOME LOWER CIGS
POSS...ESPCLY CLOSER TO CST BUT WILL KEEP IN VFR RANGE FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW/COASTAL
TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. SUB-VFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS VERY
MOIST WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
AND REDUCED CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM SAT...WEAK SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE SE TODAY THEN
DRIFT SLOWLY E TONIGHT. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS GRDNT WILL TIGHTEN A
BIT ALONG THE CST WITH HIGH PRES TO THE N...THIS WILL LEAD TO N/NE
WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. WITH THE LOW ONLY SLOWLY
DRIFTING E TONIGHT WINDS WILL CONT AT 10 TO 15 KTS...HIGHEST SOUTH.
SEAS WILL CONT MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...HOWEVER A FEW 4
FOOTER POSS OVER THE OUTER WTRS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 415 AM SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
NE WINDS WILL BACK E THEN SOUTH ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. COULD
SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA AHEAD OF THE WEAK COASTAL LOW AS NE/E
GRADIENT IS PINCHED AS THE LOW RIDES UP THE COAST. WEAK LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT N/E OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND
EXPECT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS RESPOND
BY BUILDING AND PEAKING AT 6-10 FT WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS WINDS
COULD GUST NEAR GALE FORCE RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THOUGH THE ECMWF REMAINS 5-10 KNOTS
STRONGER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...THUS WILL USE A BLEND FOR WINDS MID
WEEK. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG/TL
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG






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