Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 251241
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
741 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front with limited moisture will move through the area
this evening. High pressure will build in Sunday then slide
offshore Monday through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the
region Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will build
in behind the front Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS of 740 AM Saturday...

Widespread fog continues across our area with visibility`s as
low as a quarter to half of a mile especially inland. Since the
fog is pretty thick in spots it may not burn off for another
hour, with a return to sunshine by 14Z. Highs into the 80s
inland still looks on track.

SPC has expanded the slight risk of severe weather this
afternoon to right along our northern border, just clipping the
extreme northern part of our area. The severe weather
parameters have always been their (0-6 KM Bulk Shear 45kt+,
strong environmental winds, MLCAPES near 1000 j/kg). The
question remains how much coverage will we see, as we are at the
southern or tail end of the main action farther to our north.
With the HRRR and 06Z NAM showing a slower trend and even less
convection, I kept our area mainly dry through about 20Z, then
continued with a 20% to 40% chance especially the far north.
With the marginal threat, we continue to mention the potential
for gusty winds in our HWO and have highlighted this on social
media.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS of 330 AM Saturday...

Breezy conditions this evening with gusts over 20 kts will usher
in cooler, drier weather. Mixing from the wind and lowering
dewpoints should keep tonight fog free. Lows will near 40 inland
to 40s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 AM Sat...Near-normal temperatures Sunday, with a
gradual warm up through mid-week with increased rain chances
Monday night through early Thursday. Another cold front will
push through the region Wednesday night or early Thursday with
high pressure building in for the latter half of the week
bringing dry conditions and relatively cooler temperatures,
although they will still be above seasonable norms for early
March.

Sunday through Monday...High pressure builds into the region
through Sunday bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the
region, which then slides offshore Sunday night and Monday with
southerly return flow commencing a warming trend Monday. Low
level thickness values and sunny skies support highs near
climo in the 50s Sunday. Lows drop back down into the 30s by Mon
morning with good radiational cooling under mostly clear skies
and calm winds. Could see some inland locations drop to around
freezing Monday morning. Temps will rise into the 60s on
Monday.

Monday Night through Thursday...A weak shortwave moving through
SW flow aloft brings increasing rain chances Mon night into
Tue with a stronger upper tough and sfc cold front approaching
from the west continuing to bring rain chances through mid-
week. 00z model suite in better agreement with good coverage of
showers Mon night into the first half of Tue, however models
continue to diverge Tue night into Thu with the GFS wetter and
slightly faster pushing the cold front through Wed night/early
Thu while the ECMWF has limited QPF until late Wed night and
doesn`t push the cold front trough the region until Thu morning.
Will keep slt chc of tstms Tue as models moderate instab and
shear across the region. A high shear/low CAPE environment will
be in place Wed/Wed evening ahead of the cold front and
continued slt chc of tstm mention this timeframe as well.
Guidance continues to indicate further warming through the week
as heights/thicknesses rise well above climo once again and
yield high temps in the 70s most areas Tue and Wed. Could even
see some low 80s inland Wed ahead of the front. Cooler temps Thu
behind the front with highs in the low/mid 60s except upper 50s
OBX.

Thursday night and Friday...High pressure will build into the
area from the west late week bringing dry conditions and cooler
temps. Lows drop back into the 30s to lower 40s Thu night with
highs in the upper 50s/60 degrees inland to low/mid 50s OBX
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short term /Through tonight/...
As of 1245 AM Saturday...

Areas of fog are expected at all terminals this morning and it
could be briefly close to airport mins especially after 09Z.
Much like last night conditions are quite variable right now but
between 09Z - 12Z should be our best window for the lowest
conditions. IFR vsbys and cigs likely during that time.
Improvement to VFR is expected by 13Z with mainly VFR through
tonight. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon but they are expected to be too scattered in nature to
include in the TAFS.

Calm conditions or a light/variable wind through mid morning
then strong southwest winds gusting to 20 kts this afternoon.
Winds veer into the northwest this evening and remain gusty
through midnight at around 20 kts.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 225 AM Sat...Mainly VFR through Monday then increasing
shower chances mid week with periods of sub-VFR conditions
possible. Moisture increases across the area Mon night through
Wednesday bringing a threat of showers/isol tstms with sub-VFR
conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...Small craft advisories remain in tact.
We are still getting 7 to 8 foot seas from just off Duck to
Diamond to New River, all thanks to swell from a distant low.
Winds remain light out of the northwest at less than 10 kts this
morning. Winds will back toward the southwest by afternoon with
gusts over 20 kts likely late. Southwest winds veer into the
northwest tonight with gusts 30-35 kts. With the increase in
wind wave heights will be maintained. The biggest addition with
this update is we added the Albemarle sound and Alligator River
to small craft for tonight, with frequent gusts to 25 kts with
a surge expected behind a cold front.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 225 AM Sat...High pressure will build over the waters
Sunday, then slide offshore Sunday night and Monday. Gusty NW
winds and elevated seas early Sunday will gradually diminish to
10-15 kt in the afternoon with seas 2-5 feet. Light winds are
expected Sunday night, becoming southerly 10-15 kt Monday
afternoon. Southerly winds increase to 10-20 kt Monday night,
becoming SW Tue. SCA conditions likely to develop south of
Oregon Inlet early Tue morning. NWPS and Wavewatch in good
agreement showing seas building to 4-6 feet early Tuesday
morning south of Oregon Inlet, subsiding slightly Tue
night...though elevated seas could linger across the central
waters into Wed. SW winds then increase to 15-25 kt Wed ahead of
an approaching cold front, with seas 3-6 ft early building to
5-9 ft Wed afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temps for Sat 2/25

LOCATION           TEMP/YEAR
New Bern             77/2000 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras        69/1961 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville           81/1962 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City        75/1996 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
Kinston              84/1930 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville         75/1996 (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Sunday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Sunday
     for AMZ130-131.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EH
NEAR TERM...EH
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...EH/CQD
MARINE...EH/CQD
CLIMATE...MHX


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