Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 021057
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
657 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. 00Z GFS HAS THE AREA COMPLETELY
DRY TODAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF HAS ISOLATED POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM CAPE HATTERAS THROUGH NEW BERN TO JACKSONVILLE. WITH
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE BY DO NOT WANT TO GO DRY SO WILL GO WITH
ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...BOTH MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO BROAD UPPER TROF ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD SHARPENING UP.
WILL NUDGE POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND INCREASE TO CHANCE SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM OREGON INLET TO MOREHEAD CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...GFS/ECMWF TRENDING A BIT WETTER COAST MON INTO
MON NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF WEAK LOW LIFTING NE ALONG
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHC RANGE CST BUT
IF CURRENT MDL TRENDS CONT THEY MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER
FCSTS. DEEP INLAND LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS BEST MOISTURE STAYS ALONG
THE CST. HIGHS MON LOWER 90S INLAND TO 80S CST WITH 70S AREAS WIDE
MON NIGHT.

MAIN STORY FOR THE TUE AND WED WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FOR NOW FCST DEWPTS KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW
105 BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVRY. MAINLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE
AND WED WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORN AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING.

CHANCE OF SHRA AND TSRA INCREASE LATE WEEK AS UPR TRF DEVELOPS TO
THE W WITH WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW THU AND STALLING
NEAR THE AREA FRI INTO SAT. HAVE CHC POPS THRU THE PERIOD. WILL
REMAIN MUGGY HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE A S HOT WITH MAINLY UPR 80S
AND LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM SUN...THE MIXTURE OF CIGS/VSBYS WILL BECOME ALL VFR IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING
BEGINS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON VEER TO SOUTH
TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS EWN AND
OAJ...DRY ELSEWHERE. PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN IN
PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...DECENT CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA NEAR CST MON INTO MON
NIGHT BUT BEST BET FOR REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE MAINLY E OF
TERMINALS ESPCLY ISO/PGV WITH POSS SOME MVFR OAJ/EWN. MAINLY VFR
TUE AND WED WITH LIMITED PRECIP AND LOW LVL SW FLOW LIMITING
FOG/ST THREAT. COULD SEE BETTER CVRG OF SHRA AND TSRA THU AHEAD OF
NEXT FRONT WITH BRIEF SUB VFR POSS MAINLY IN THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM SUN...STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR ABOUT ONE MORE DAY. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND
OF THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOR WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WINDS 5-15 KNOTS
AND SEAS CAPPED AT 3-5 FEET.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE MON AS WEAK LOW LIFTS NE
ALONG FRONT/TRF INLAND TIGHTENING GRDNT. WINDS SHLD REACH 15 TO 20
KTS MOST WTRS MON AFTN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET HIGHEST
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. SSW WINDS THEN EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS
REST OF THE FCST PERIOD AS TRF CONTS INLAND WITH HIGH OFFSHORE.
THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ESPCLY OUTER WTRS FROM HAT S
WHERE WILL BE MAINLY 5 TO 6 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/RF
MARINE...HSA/RF



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