Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 041200
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM WED...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ABOVE A
SHALLOW INVERSION EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE INLAND
DUE TO THE STRONG SFC INVERSION. STEADILY RISING TEMPS CONTINUE AS
WARM AIR BEGINS TO BE REALIZED AT THE SFC DUE TO RISING LL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE 40S INLAND TO 60S
EAST...EXCEPT IN THE 50S IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO THE COLD WATERS.

LOW STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING AS
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ACTS TO MIX OUT THE BNDRY LAYER. EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE MARINE FOG WILL ADVECT INLAND
WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1 TO 2 MILES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS
TODAY CLIMB WELL INTO THE MID/UPR 70S TODAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED IN A WELL MIXED BNDRY LAYER. SW WINDS WILL GUST
INTO THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. NEAR THE COAST...THE COLD SHELF WATERS
COMBINED WITH MOIST SW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS QUITE A BIT COOLER IN
THE LOW/MID 60S. WEAK CONVERGENCE INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH SOME
VERY WEAK INSTABILITY COULD KICK OFF AN ISO SHOWER OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE 20 POPS AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WED...CONTINUED WARM SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY
WARM TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S SOUTH TO 50S NORTH
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NO RAIN EXPECTED FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT AS STRONG CONVERGENCE WITH INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL NC. FRONT WILL APPROACH NRN AREAS TOWARDS
12Z AND HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS ESP NORTH THOUGH THINK BULK OF
ANY RAIN WILL STILL BE NORTH OF THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY...DIFFICULT FORECAST AS WINTER TRIES TO
HANG ON FOR ONE LAST GASP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHEN FREEZING
RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NC AND
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THURSDAY. THE FRONT COULD MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS WILLIAMSTON AND
MANTEO BEFORE DAYBREAK SO AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO TIME FOR RECOVERY AND COULD START OUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM THERE. ELSEWHERE THE FURTHER
SOUTH THE BETTER THE CHANCE FOR HEATING AND THUS WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE 60S. A FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL MEAN MUCH COOLER TEMPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS AND A
SLOWER MOVEMENT WOULD ALLOW THE NORTH TO WARM MORE. THIS IS AN ANA
FRONT WHICH MEANS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
IN THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO THE NORTH
INCREASING TO 20 MPH+ WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DROP
INTO THE 30S SETTING THE STAGE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
BY THURSDAY EVENING.

THE COLD AIR WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AS EVIDENCED BY THE VERY WARM
850-700 CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES WHICH REMAIN AOA 1575 FOR MUCH
OF THE EVENT AND BY A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THE WARM AIR ALOFT STRONGLY INDICATES THAT THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION THREATS WILL BE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WHEN
BOUNDARY LAYER AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL TO AND BELOW
FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS
DETERMINING WHERE THE BEST FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL BE AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THINK
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT TO RECEIVE A
TENTH OR TWO OF ICE ACCRETION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
THINK ANY SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A 1/2 INCH.
ANOTHER TROUBLING TREND IN THE GUIDANCE IS TO HANG ON TO A THREAT
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. BASED ON THE STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND THE ANOMALOUS NATURE OF THIS AIRMASS WILL TREND MY
FORECAST HIGHS ON FRIDAY TOWARD THE COLDEST MOS WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO BREAK FREEZING.

EXPECT SFC HIGH PRES WILL THEN EXTEND OVER AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING AIR MASS AS UPR FLOW BECOMES ZONAL...WHICH
WILL KEEP DEEPER MSTR AXIS S AND SE OF AREA. LATEST ECMWF
INDICATES ANOTHER SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING IN NEXT TUESDAY SO WE
MAY NEED TO ADD POPS THEN IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM WED...LOW STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUING THIS MORNING DUE
TO SHALLOW NEAR SFC INVERSION. FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY
MID- MORNING...AND HAVE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY 14-15Z. SW
WIND GUSTS 20-25KT EXPECTED TODAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
CROSSWIND IMPACTS FOR EWN. SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT A RETURN TO
IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH CONTINUED SW WINDS AND LITTLE
SIGN OF AN INVERSION PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE
OUT IFR MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY...MOIST SRLY FLOW EXPECTED TO EARLY
THU...AND LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER NRN SECTIONS INTO THU EVENING AS
WDSPRD RAIN DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT PUSHING N TO S DURING
THE DAY. SRN SECTIONS MAY SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THU BEFORE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT SUB-VFR THEN EXPECTED INTO EARLY FRI WITH
RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A RETURN TO PREDOMINANT VFR
CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

GUSTY N-NE WINDS 15-25 MPH IN WAKE OF FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM WED...MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINE AREAS WILL BE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG AS MANY OBSERVATIONS NEAR IMMEDIATE COAST REPORTING A
QUARTER TO HALF MILE VISIBILITIES. SCA CONDITIONS ANOTHER FACTOR
TODAY DUE TO GUSTY SW WINDS. THE WARM AND MOIST SW FLOW OVER COLD
WATERS WILL CONTINUE THREAT FOR MARINE FOG THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
HAVE LEFT DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THUR MORNING
AHEAD OF INCOMING COLD FRONT. GUSTY SW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL PRODUCE SCA FOR ALL WATERS PLUS PAMLICO SOUND
THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS
THRU THE WATERS THURSDAY. GUSTY SSW WINDS CONT INTO EARLY THU
SOUTHERN TOW THIRDS WITH SEAS 6 TO 10 FEET OUTER WTRS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THU WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRODUCING
STRONG N WINDS INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD POSSIBLY REACH GALE FORCE
ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. WINDS/SEAS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH BENIGN CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-
     150-152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ135-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154-156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/HSA/TL



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