Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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839
FXUS62 KMHX 052059
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
359 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A
MAJOR LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO EASTERN NC AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR AND LIGHT/CALM
WINDS SKIES/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 30S ALONG OBX AS A RESULT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY....SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION WITH RIDGING ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WITH THE COOLEST OVER THE
NORTHEAST TO MILDEST SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AS A MEAN 500 MB UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN US. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...FROM LATE SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT COULD BE QUITE STORMY ACROSS COASTAL
EASTERN NC WITH STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE AS A MAJOR SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW EVOLVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT: A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...CARVE OUT THE EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
"BOMB" OUT SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEG
TILTED. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT CENTRAL PRESSURES COULD DROP
INTO THE 970`S! THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST DOES
THIS SYSTEM GET AS THIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AFFECT ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE IMPACTS THAT OCCUR SUCH AS THE AMOUNT OF PCPN,
AND IF ANY WINTRY PCPN OCCURS AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS. THERE COULD BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM FROM INLAND TO THE COAST AND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVING THE GREATEST IMPACTS. HIGH
WIND WARNINGS OR WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS WELL AS COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF
HEADLINES. IF HEAVY RAIN MATERIALIZES, THEN POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN AS MUCH OF OUR AREA HAS JUST EXPERIENCED 3-6" OF
RAIN WED AND THU. BEST THREAT FOR ANY WINTRY PCPN WOULD BE INLAND
WHERE THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT DYNAMIC COOLING COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A NARROW SWATH OF SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX.

MON AND MON NIGHT: MON COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW DEPARTING AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 50S. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MON/MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BUT PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THIS FRONT IS THE
LEADING EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN NC.

TUE THROUGH FRI: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TUE THROUGH THU. COMPLEX
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OFF THE MID ATLC-NE COAST TUE AND WED
KEEPING EASTERN NC IN A COLD BUT MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW. COULD
BE A FEW SHOWERS TUE BUT THINK DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL INHIBIT
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS COULD OCCUR
LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT/HEIGHTS RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AWAY THIS
AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. GUSTY N/NW WINDS
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN AND SKIES BECOME CLEAR
THROUGH TOMORROW.

LONG TERM /SAT THROUGH TUE/
AS OF 3 PM FRI...SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SUB VFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LOW PULLS WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KTS...THE
HIGHEST IS OVER DIAMOND SHOALS. SEAS ARE 7-11 FT NORTHERN WATER
TO 5-8 FT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS.

NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...BECOMING 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL PERSIST TO BE
ELEVATED WITH 5-8 FT TONIGHT AND SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY TO 4-6 FT
OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS. THE SOUTHERN WATERS 3
TO 6 FT ...SUBSIDING 3 TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE
SOUTHERN WATERS EXPECTED TO EXPIRED BY 09Z SATURDAY AND NORTHERN
WATERS BY 12Z. CENTRAL WATERS WILL REMAIN IN SCA FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. HAVE CANCELLED SCA OVER THE ALBEMARLE/PAMLICO SOUND AND
ALLIGATOR RIVER HAS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 25 KNOTS.


LONG TERM /SAT THROUGH TUE/
AS OF 3 PM FRI...VERY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SUN/SUN NIGHT
AND ELEVATED SEAS PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ON SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY
AND MOVE NORTHEAST...PASSING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH STORM TO GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FT. A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AND WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
SEAS IN EXCESS OF 6 FT OVER THE NC WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
 RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF OF THE NC COAST WILL
PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO
SOUND BASIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM AREAS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO
SOUND/NEUSE RIVER ALONG DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY (INCLUDING CEDAR
ISLAND) TO OCRACOKE AND OVER PORTIONS OF HATTERAS ISLAND
VULNERABLE TO NORTHERLY WINDS.

ON THE OCEAN SIDE WATER LEVELS OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
POSSIBLY MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. SHORE BREAK IN EXCESS OF
10 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL LEAD TO BEACH EROSION.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ135-152-154.
     GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/BM
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...JME/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX



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