Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 172000
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area late this afternoon and evening.
Low pressure will develop along the front offshore tonight.
Both systems are forecast to produce snow across Eastern North
Carolina this evening and tonight. High pressure will build in
from the west Thursday through the weekend. A cold front will
cross the region Monday night followed by high pressure Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Wed...Compact upr trough is pivoting through the
deep south and wrn Carolinas this afternoon, and becoming
negatively tilted per latest H2O vapor imagery. This will
promote cyclogenesis offshore of the NC coast this evening, and
be the focus for periods of snow, heavy at times, tonight.

First, mesoscale snow band just west of the coastal plain has
been hammering the Piedmont with heavy snowfall. This band is
edging eastward towards E NC, though will begin to weaken as
energy is transferred offshore to the developing low. Warm sfc
temps across E NC as many areas have topped out in the upr
40s/low 50s this afternoon, so the snow will have a tough time
to begin accumulating on area roadways initially.

With the warm temps in the boundary layer, rain is initially
expected this afternoon, before a transisition to a rain/snow
mix and then quickly to snow northern and western zones very
late this afternoon through the early evening. The last places
to switch to snow will be the Crystal Coast, then finally the
southern OBX. A general 1 to 2 inches still expected for the
counties under winter wx advisories through this evening.

General thinking for snowfall amounts overnight has not changed
too much from previous assessments this morning. With a
deepening low offshore, large scale lift occurs aloft as coastal
areas will be under right entrance region of upr jet. Mid level
fgen maximized this evening to the early morning hours, as
large omega vals collocated with DGZ for several hours. Thus,
best opportunity to pick up 2-3 inches of snow appears to be
across the coastal locales. Along the OBX, localized totals of
up to around 4 inches are expected. Localized higher amounts
possible if heavy meso banding sets up. Latest 17/12Z ECMWF has
trended stronger with the low, and hence more bullish on QPF
from Carteret through the northeastern zones, so winter storm
warning criteria snowfall still in play.

With the strengthening coastal storm will come strong winds for
the eastern coast tonight. Issued Wind Advisory for the Outer
Banks tonight into early Thursday morning with northerly winds
increasing to 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 155 PM Wed...Cold and dry conditions will follow the
offshore low pressure system Thursday, with high temps only
topping out in the upper 30s to around 40 deg across the area.
Most locations will rise above freezing between 10am and noon.
Area roadways will likely remain dangerous until temps rise
above freezing and melting begins. Low temps will cold again
Friday morning, low to mid 20s inland and upper 20s/30 along the
coast. As the cold upper trough moves away on Friday, high
temperatures will moderate to 50 to 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 155 PM Wednesday...
Saturday and Sunday...High pressure moving off the coast, and
rising heights will allow temperatures to warm above average
over the weekend, with dry weather expected. Highs Sat in the
50s then warming into the mid 50s to low 60s Sunday.

Monday and Monday night...A cold front will approach late
Monday bringing a threat of showers to area by evening. More
widespread showers are expected Monday night as the front
crosses the area. Increased pops to high chance. Mild
temperatures will continue ahead of the front with highs in the
lower to middle 60s expected.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Dry and slightly cooler conditions will
be forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday as the models indicate
high pressure over the area. Some lingering precip will be
possible early Tuesday with a slower frontal passage, but should
be drying out Tue. Highs are forecast in the mid 50s to around
60 degrees Tue and 50s for Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 1 PM Wednesday...Fly conditions will deteriorate as a
winter storm brings mixed precipitation this afternoon.
Currently VFR conditions, but an increase of low clouds will
filter into the area from the west to east bringing MVFR
conditions, bringing rain across all TAF sites, then a RA/SN mix
for the inland TAF sites (PGV/ISO) around 21-00z, then
transitioning to all snow afterwards with conditions becoming
IFR. Coastal sites will have a RA/SN mix around 00z, then
becoming all snow around 02z with IFR conditions. Conditions
will slowly improved back to VFR after 9z as drier air filters
into the region. VFR conditions will continue Thursday as high
pressure builds over NC.

NE winds 10 knots or less, becoming NW as the coastal low
deepen and gusty winds up to 20 knots tonight until 9z.

Long Term /Thursday through Monday/...
As of 155 PM Wed...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period with dry high pressure over the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Thursday/...
As of 155 PM Wednesday...Dangerous winds and seas developing
tonight. Gale Warnings now in effect for all the coastal waters
and Pamlico Sound, with SCA for the Albemarle, Alligator and
inland rivers.

Latest obs show N/NE winds increasing, now 20-25 kt north of
Lookout and 10-15 kt south, with seas 5-7 ft north of Ocracoke
and 3-5 ft south. A cold front will move through the waters
late this afternoon and early evening, with northerly winds
increasing quickly along with building seas. Northerly winds
peak at 25-35 kt with seas 7-11 ft late tonight and early
Thursday as low pressure develops off of the coast. Winds and
seas will slowly diminish through the day Thu. NW winds become
15-25 kt with seas subsiding to 4-7 ft late.

Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 155 PM Wed...Winds become more westerly Thu night and
will continue to slowly diminish along with seas. Seas expected
to subside below 6 ft after midnight across the central waters.
Friday and Saturday W/SW flow 10-15 kt is expected with seas 3-5
ft Friday and 2 to 4 ft Saturday. Light winds and seas expected
Sunday into early Monday, generally 10 kt or less with seas 1-3
ft. Could see increasing southerly winds and building seas
Monday ahead of the approaching cold front.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 230 PM Wed... A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for
Outer Banks Dare and Hyde counties as strong NNW winds will
develop tonight and could lead to minor soundside
flooding, especially in the Hatteras area and Ocracoke.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EST Thursday for NCZ029-044-
     079-090-091.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Thursday for NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-103-104.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM EST
     Thursday for NCZ092-098.
     Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday for
     NCZ103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday for
     AMZ135-150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for AMZ130-131.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/CQD
NEAR TERM...TL/SGK
SHORT TERM...JME/CQD
LONG TERM...JME/CQD
AVIATION...CQD/BM
MARINE...CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX



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