Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 030151
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
951 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT BUT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THEN
DISSIPATE JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY ALONG
THE COAST...DISSIPATING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM TUE...TROUGHING INLAND CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH
BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WELL TO THE NW OF THE
AREA. MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR LATE EVENING
UPDATE. PREVIOUS AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN HAS
NOW DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED
POPS REST OF OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING CHANCES TOWARDS EARLY
MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY
DRAPED THROUGH THE NE AND BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED
MORNING. KEPT POPS FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE THAT HAS CHANCE POPS
NORTH AND WEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. VERY WARM AND MUGGY
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE JUST NORTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY LEAVING THETA-E RIDGE IN PLACE.
LATEST RUN OF GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW LOW LEVEL VORT ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS COUPLED WITH A WARM MOIST AIRMASS
WILL HELP SET OFF SCATTERED CONVECTION. WENT WITH 30-40 POPS
THROUGHOUT. HEAT INDEX VALUES NOT QUITE AS HOT AS TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION...EXPECTING READINGS IN THE UPPER
90S WITH A COUPLE OF 100 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A RATHER WEAK UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL HAVE HIGHER
POPS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 264 WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE A LITTLE
BIT LESS ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH PLENTY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWER AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY VERY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE BY EARLY MONDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN
AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD QPF SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY THEN MORE OF AN OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION PATTERN ON
MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. SOME DRYING WILL TAKE
PLACE FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE WAVE FORMS ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND RIDES NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION.

FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS GENERALLY LOW/MID 70S. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...IF THEY ARE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO IMPACT MAINLY ISO BEFORE 00Z. LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND WITH PERSISTENCE GIVEN THE SAME AIRMASS IN
PLACE...WITH OAJ HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
EARLY WED MORNING. VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
WED MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN SECTION OF OUR AREA WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE KPGV TERMINAL LIKELY
TO SEE THE MOST IMPACT WITH LESS ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. WILL
LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY DURING THIS TIME.
ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SAGS
SOUTH AND INCREASES LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM TUE...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM MAINTAINING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY
10-20KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT THEN
DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT WED...SEAS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY 2-4 FEET.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MOST OF THE MARINE PERIOD WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND OCCASIONAL
TROUGHINESS OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION WITH A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW. PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
2 TO 3 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH AND BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
N/NE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON PER A CONSENSUS OF LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUN.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DO
NOT EXPECT WINDS TO EXCEED 15 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CQD/CTC
MARINE...HSA/CTC/CQD





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