Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 291403
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1003 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Bonnie is forecast to make landfall along the
South Carolina coast today, then weaken to a depression tonight.
The low will slowly drift northeast near the North Carolina coast
Monday through mid week. A frontal boundary will approach the
region by next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 10 am Sunday...Current forecast on track. No changes needed
to current forecast package. TS Bonnie will slowly move onshore
along the South Carolina today. Mainly SE winds are expected to
the north of the system across eastern North Carolina leading to a
very moist airmass. Showers with heavy downpours cont to increase
over the region and all models show plenty of shra and scattered
tsra cont all day. Even with clouds shld see temps climb into the
low/mid 80s and that will lead to some instab helping to produce
some sct tsra. Based on model and WPC qpf have raised pops to
categorical inland this aftn with likely closer to cst. Locally
heavy downpours a good bet with precip water values around 2
inches. With SE flow will have to watch for some rotating cells
moving onshore today however overall helicity not impressive and
think best chcs will be S of region closer to TS.

4 to 5 foot SE swell north of Bonnie will lead to a high threat
of rip currents for beaches from Cape Hatteras south with a
moderate risk further north.

&&

.SHORT TERM / MONDAY THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 230 am Sunday...Bonnie is forecast to weaken to a
depression tonight as it moves little near the coast of South
Carolina. This will cont to produce a moist SSE flow of winds over
the region with numerous shra and a few tsra expected to cont.
Locally heavy downpours will cont as precip water values remain
around 2 inches. Will remain mild and muggy with lows upr 60s and
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM Sun...

The remnants of Bonnie will drift slowly northeastward near the
coast of SC on Monday and then along the NC coast through Thursday.
Periods of locally heavy rainfall and increased rip current threat
are main impacts we will see from this system.

Monday...Deep tropical moisture will continue to feed north
northwest on the east side of the tropical system as it sits along
the central SC coast. This will lead to bouts of SHRA and Iso to
scattered TSRA...and cont likely pops. Given PW`s around 2 inches,
which is near 2 S.D. above climo, will see locally heavy rainfall.
This then may lead to minor flooding of poor drainage areas and
ponding of water on roads. Will be quite uncomfortably muggy with
highs around 80.

Monday Night and Tuesday...Decent coverage of shra and a few TSRA
will continue as the remnant low continues to drift north along the
NC/SC coast. Will cont likely to high chance pops with again locally
heavy rainfall possible. Best chances for rain appear to be eastern
and southern half of the CWA this period along and northeast of the
low track. Despite the low near the area, winds will remain rather
light with fcst slp to remain above 1000 mb. Little temp change with
all the moisture in the area. Highs again around 80-85 and lows in
the mid 60s to near 70 along the OBX.

Tuesday Night through Thursday...The low will take its time moving
up along the NC coast. Model track and timing difference are noted,
with almost 24 hours differences between model solutions.  Current
thinking is the tropical depression [at this point] will be just to
our south, moving to the northeast, eventually off the northern OBX
coast by Thursday evening (at the latest).  This slow progression
means continued SHRA and chc TSRA through the period, mainly along
the coast. However, if we have any breaks in the clouds, diurnally
driven TSRA is possible further inland, especially Wednesday and
Thursday. Flooding may continue to be a problem through mid-week for
locations that have already received heavy rain for several days in
a row. Although the TD will be moving along our coast, the gradient
will not lend itself to gusty conditions. Expect winds 5-10kts with
slightly higher gusts, especially along the immediate coast. Temps
will remain above climo with heights/thicknesses above average with
highs in the mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s to near 70.

Friday through Sunday...A frontal system will slowly approach by the
weekend with perhaps a better coverage of convection. Southerly flow
will increase through the period as a trough anchored in the central
CONUS begins to deepen. So expect diurnally drive
showers/thunderstorms, especially Saturday into Sunday as the
dynamics become better organized.  Temperatures in the mid 80s with
lows around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through tonight/...
As of 10 am Sunday...Tough fcst trying to determine cigs thru the
period as numerous shra cross. Most inland sites now ifr or worse
and shld cont like that cpl more hrs. Later this morn and aftn
will likely see mainly mvfr to vfr...brief ifr likely as heavier
shra or tsra cross. For tonight expect good cvrg of shra and with
low lvls remaining nearly saturated will likely again see some ifr
develop espcly inland.

Long Term /Mon through Thursday/...
As of 315 AM Sun...Remnant tropical low will drift along and near
the NC coast through Thursday. Scattered to numerous showers
expected thru mid-week with the low in the vicinity.
These showers will lead to periods of MVFR/IFR, especially thru
Tue. With low levels very moist could also have some light
fog/lower stratus develop during the late night/early morning hours
as winds expected to be very light. Conditions look to improve
Thursday as the TD/sfc low moves off the northern OBX.  Southerly
flow will develop Friday with an increase in diurnally drive
convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 10 am Sun...No changes to current forecast.

Prev Disc...SE to SSE winds will cont thru the period with Bonnie
remaining well to the south through tonight. Speeds will be mainly
10 to 15 kts however some 15 to 20 kts expected especially over
outer waters. These winds shld lead to some 6 to poss 7 foot seas
over outer central and southern waters so will cont SCA south of
Oregon Inlet. Extended the SCA for southern waters through tonight
as looks like 6 foot seas will linger over the outer waters.

Long Term /Mon through Thursday/...
As of 315 AM Sun...Predominant SE to S winds 10 to 15 kts with some
gusts 15 to 20 kts through Monday with weak tropical system S of
area. As the weakening low drifts NE near the NC coast Tue, expect
to see winds grad become more E then eventually NE behind the slowly
exiting system. Uncertainty remains however as to timing of when the
low will pass the waters, therefore winds are subject to change. It
does appear however that winds will remain sub SCA as system will be
quite weak. Wavewatch and SWAN continue to show marginal 6 foot seas
outer central and southern waters through Monday night, otherwise
mainly 3 to 5 feet. By Tue seas primarily 2-4 feet. The TD/sfc low
should be exiting the northern OBX by Thursday will conditions
slowly improving, weather wise.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 230 am Sun...With tropical moisture over the area expect
bouts of heavy shra and tsra the next few days with rainfall
amounts generally between 1 to 3 inches. This heavy rain will
likely lead to some localized minor poor drainage flooding and
ponding on roads. Widespread or significant flooding is not
expected as ground is not overly wet and evapotranspiration near
max this time of year.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     098-103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...HSA/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...HSA/LEP/RF
MARINE...HSA/LEP/RF
HYDROLOGY...MHX



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