Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 221045
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW MOVING SE OFF THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WILL PRODUCE INTERVALS OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY (TO 25 TO 30
MPH, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST) AS LOWER ATMOSPHERIC MIXING INCREASES
AFTER SUNRISE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MOSTLY CLOUDY INTERVALS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS LARGELY IN THE MID 60S,
COOLEST NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NE/COASTAL SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE ESP OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT A
LIGHT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING INLAND AND KEEP LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE BEACHES
IN PROXIMITY OT WARMER WATER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE
AGAIN REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THURSDAY THEN BACK NEAR
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THU/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. SCT MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL SPIN ABOUT AN UPPER LOW OVER FAR NE NC EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO
20-22 KTS AND CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTN. ALSO SCT/BKN DIURNAL
HI-BASED CU/SC WILL DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING TODAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASING
NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE IN GUSTS OVER NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING BUT WILL
STAY WITH HIGH END SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT
GALE GUST DURATION. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT TODAY NORTH OF
LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE
HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG






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