Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 261115
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
615 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN TODAY WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF OF THE COAST. THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. STILL A
COMPLICATED FORECAST NEXT 36 HOURS AS MILLER TYPE "B"
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OFF OF THE NC COAST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND
LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST IS MOVING NORTHWARD AND SHOULD
STAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF ONGOING SHOWERS REMAINS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND REMAINS MAINLY EAST OF THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH THEIR PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT
REGARDLESS OF WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN. THINK BEST APPROACH AT THIS TIME IS TO INDICATE JUST A 30%
POP AS MODEL QPF FORECASTS ARE INCONSISTENT AND AMOUNTS ARE VERY
LIGHT. ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND THIS WILL
HELP TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS IT CROSSES EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE COASTAL LOW AS IT MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. THESE
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO BE CIRCULATED INTO EASTERN
NC AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO UNDER 1000 FT
BY 12Z TUESDAY. THUS ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ABLE TO
MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AGAIN THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT
WITH QPF PLACEMENT WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25" INDICATED. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS. WE COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES/ELEVATED ROADWAYS. MAY
NEED TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY AFTER TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...STRONG VERT STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY...AND WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIMITED THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTER
WX. THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE THE
PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NC. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUE
MORNING AND ONLY WARMING TO AROUND 40-45 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...STILL
EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE LONGEST...BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY
WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUE
AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40.

MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WED AND WED
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THUR AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WED
AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR THU. CONFIDENCE
BELOW AVERAGE WITH A COUPLE LATE PERIOD NRN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEMS
AS MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURS NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND HAS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
TAPS MORE GULF MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER ACROSS EASTERN NC.
INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SE COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE GFS ABOUT
18-24 HOURS FASTER THAN ECMWF MOVING THE LOW ALONG THE NC COAST.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY
40S FOR HIGH...EXCEPT FRI WHEN TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE
LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING INLAND
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY WHILE
ANOTHER AREA REMAINS JUST OFF OF THE COAST. EXPECT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING
LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE
COAST. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT
AS COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OF OF THE DEL MARVA.
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME WITH A POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CEILINGS AFTER 06Z. DEEPENING COLD AIR WILL CHANGE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY WITH BEST THREAT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO START OUT THE PERIOD
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING
PRED VFR BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRI
WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS/THE SOUNDS/ AND THE ALLIGATOR RIVER. A
BRIEF PERIOD MARGINAL GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MILLER TYPE "B" CYCLOGENESIS OFF
OF THE NC COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW NORTH OF OCRACOKE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST WHILE SOUTH OF THERE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS EVENING THE FLOW
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST LEADING TO
BUILDING SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TUE. NNW WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU MIDWEEK AS LOW
DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
WED/WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THUR NIGHT AND FRI AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND
LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS.
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT EXPECTED TUE AND WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL
AND NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD






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