Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 231940
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
340 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight-Friday...
A strong H100-H70 high pres ridge blanketing the ern CONUS will be
pushed into the W Atlc by a high amp mid/upr lvl flow pattern that
currently dominates the continent. Tight low/mid lvl pgrad around
the base of the ridge will maintain a brisk E/NE flow that has
pushed a cold front into south FL. Sfc/low lvl moisture pooling
within the frontal trof will combine with the onshore flow to keep
small precip chances in the fcst. However, as the front sags into
the S peninsula, it will carry the bulk of its mid/upr lvl dynamic
forcing along with it. Weak dry air advection also will occur abv
the H85 lvl overnight, dropping PWAT values to arnd 0.75" over the
nrn half of the CWA, and arnd 1.00" over the srn half. Pops will be
capped at 20/30pct south of the I-4 Corridor.

H100-H70 flow will slowly veer to the E/SE on Fri as a short wave
trof over central Canada links up with a dvlpg storm system over
high plains and rides over the nrn flank of the Atlc ridge, shunting
its trailing axis into the Deep South. Increasing H85-H70 subsidence
will cap the airmass blo 10KFT. Cannot completely rule out an isold
coastal shra given the strength/depth of the onshore flow, but the
the combination of dry air advection and a surpressed airmass will
limit precip to areas along and east of the St. John`s river and
headwaters.

Gusty onshore flow will diminish aft sunset, but the lcl pgrad will
remain tight enough to maintain sfc winds arnd 10mph, keeping the
airmass well mixed. Mrng mins generally in the M60s will be 4-8F abv
avg. Decreasing moisture and dvlpg E/SE flow on Fri will allow aftn
max temps to warm into the M/U70s.

Friday Night-Saturday...
The weather pattern will be dominated by a large area of high
pressure pressing off the mid Atlantic coast, leaving its trailing
ridge axis to our north. The maritime flow will continue through the
weekend as gradient slowly relaxes and veers winds to the
east/southeast by Saturday. Model soundings suggest what little
moisture exists (PWATs at or below 0.80 inches) will be squashed
underneath a sharp inversion at around 850mb. Will keep precip
chances out of the forecast for most of the area, save for a low
chance over the Atlantic waters given the continued stout onshore
flow regime.

Sunday-Wednesday...(prev disc)
While several mid/upper level disturbances will pass to the north of
the peninsula through the period, mean layer ridging appears strong
enough to deflect most of their associated energy away from the
area, leaving precipitation prospects low through the middle of next
week. Ridge axis will settle closer to the central Peninsula,
allowing the local pressure gradient and winds to relax. Temps
gradually warm through the period with low/mid 80s becoming quite
common by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 24/18Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 24/01Z...E/NE 14-18KTS with fqnt G22-26KTS. Btwn
24/01Z-24/04Z...coastal sites bcmg E/NE 8-12KTS...interior sites
bcmg E/NE 5-9KTS. Btwn 24/12Z-24/15Z...bcmg E/SE 14-17KTS with fqnt
G21-25KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: S of KISM-KMLB...thru 23/22Z sct IFR tsras/slgt chc
LIFR +tsra with sfc G35KTS...aft 23/22Z slgt chc MVFR shras. N of
KISM-KMLB thru 24/00Z slgt chc MVFR shras...aft 24/12Z slgt chc MVFR
shras.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Friday...Hazardous boating conditions as a strong ridge axis
moves off the Mid Atlc coast and into the W Atlc, trailing its axis
into N FL in the process. Tight pgrad will produce a fresh to strong
E/NE breeze thru Fri aftn. Overnight, seas 7-9FT nearshore and 8-11FT
offshore, subsiding to 6-8FT nearshore and 8-10FT offshore by lat
Fri aftn.

Saturday...Hazardous boating conditions continue, though the lcl
pgrad will gradually slacken as the ridge weakens over the W Atlc.
Moderate to fresh E/SE breeze will maintain 5-6FT seas nearshore and
6-7FT seas offshore.

Sunday-Tuesday...(prev disc)
Overall conditions will remain marginal to poor into early next week
with a gentle to moderate E/SE breeze, seas 5-7FT on Sun, subsiding
to 4-6FT north of Sebastian Inlet and 3-5FT south of the Inlet on
Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  75  61  78 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  59  78  61  82 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  64  76  64  80 /  20  10  10  10
VRB  66  77  64  80 /  30  10  10  10
LEE  57  79  60  82 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  58  77  60  81 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  59  78  61  82 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  65  77  63  80 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Volusia County-Indian River-Inland Volusia County-Martin-
     Northern Brevard County-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern
     Brevard County-St. Lucie.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for Coastal Volusia
     County-Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard County-Southern
     Brevard County-St. Lucie.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
     nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Bragaw
Long Term/Impact WX...Johnson


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