Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 300736
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
336 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL NUDGE NORTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BUILDS
AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL/500MB SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DEEPENING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AROUND
THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSPORTS MOIST AIR
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AS SHOWN BY BOTH THE TAMPA AND JACKSONVILLE
EVENING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS...RECORDING PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
2.00 INCHES OR HIGHER. DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM EARLY AND PUSH MORE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL AND THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SETUP FAVORS
MOST OF THE STORMS WEST OF ORLANDO LATE AFTERNOON. THE MOS POP OF
30 TO 40 PERCENT LOOKS REASONABLE FOR EARLY WEATHER AT THE COAST
AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERIOR. HIGHS AROUND 90 AT THE
COAST AND LOW 90S WELL INLAND.

TONIGHT...THE COASTAL AREAS CLEAR IN THE EVENING THEN LOW CLOUDS
START COMING OFF THE OCEAN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CAPE
CANAVERAL SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. AWAY FROM THE
COAST CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH AND FROM DAYTONA BEACH INLAND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S WITHOUT THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER.

SUNDAY...AXIS OF DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A
MORE ESTABLISHED EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A LITTLE
DRYING WORKING IN AND POPS ONLY IN THE 20S. DID NOT WANT TO
DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THOUGH...AND HAVE GONE
WITH 30 PERCENT CHANCES EXCEPT 40 PERCENT IN LAKE COUNTY. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR

MON-LATE WEEK...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE RIDGE POSITION JUST
TO OUR NORTH IS INDICATED. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO
LUMBER SLOWLY WEST THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND REACH SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A BIT SUBDUED AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...SO POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT INDICATED BY MOS LOOK
GOOD MON-TUE. AS THE MID/UPPER LOW GETS CLOSER ON WED...THERE
SHOULD BE MOISTENING AND COOLING ALOFT MAINLY IN THE SOUTH SO HAVE
GONE WITH 40 POPS...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE MOS. THE MOISTENING
AND DESTABILIZATION IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THU-FRI SO
POPS WILL RISE TO 40 PERCENT OR GREATER AREAWIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPO MVFR VCSH AND VCTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EARLY AT THE COAST AND MID AND LATE AFTERNOON INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...BOTH THE NOAA AND SCRIPPS BUOYS WERE RECORDING 2
TO 3 FOOT LONG PERIOD SEAS/SWELL. THE NOAA BUOYS AS WELL AS THE
CMAN SITES AT TRIDENT PIER IN PORT CANAVERAL AND AT SEBASTIAN
INLET WERE RECORDING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS JUST NORTH AND A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH EXCEPTION OF AN EASTERLY WIND IN THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO A SEA BREEZE.

SUN-WED...SURFACE RIDGE POSITION IS FORECAST TO EXTEND JUST NORTH
OF THE WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
SPEEDS LOOK MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS FLOW REGIME USUALLY
FAVORS NIGHT/MORNING SHOWER CHANCES WITH ISOLATED STORMS. THE
MARINE STORMS MAY START TO PACK MORE PUNCH TUE/WED AS A POCKET OF
COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  75  91  75 /  40  30  30  20
MCO  93  75  94  74 /  40  30  30  20
MLB  91  76  91  77 /  40  20  30  20
VRB  90  74  91  75 /  30  20  30  20
LEE  93  76  94  76 /  40  30  40  20
SFB  94  77  94  76 /  40  30  30  20
ORL  93  77  94  77 /  40  30  30  20
FPR  90  76  90  75 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....LASCODY







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