Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 301944
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
344 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN HUNG UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WILL EXIST TO THE
SOUTH/EAST OF THE BOUNDARY SO THIS WILL BE THE AREA WHERE SMALL
POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THIS EVENING. HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE
LEVELS BUT NOT MUCH OF AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT IS SHOWN SO THIS
CHANCE LOOKS MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

THU-FRI...THE WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT WEST WHICH WILL
ALLOW HIGHER MOISTURE BAND TO GRADUALLY SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GFS LOOKS A BIT TOO FAST IN RETURNING CHANCE POPS TO THE
NORTH ON THU SO HAVE GONE A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE THERE. BY FRI
THE MODEL ERODES THE AREA OF LOWER THETA E AIR AND SCATTERED POPS
AREAWIDE LOOK REASONABLE.

EXTENDED (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...
PATTERN LOOKS ABOUT PAR FOR CENTRAL FL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF MODELS MAINTAIN A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS...BUT A DEEP LYR CYCLONE OVER THE PAC NW WILL INTERCEPT MUCH
OF THE NRN STREAM JET ENERGY THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PREVENT
THE TROF FROM GAINING THE STRENGTH NECESSARY TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE
AXIS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. BY
MON...MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK ERLY WAVE OVER THE TROPICS WILL HAVE
WORKED FAR ENOUGH WEST TO IMPACT THE LCL WX...EVEN IF INDIRECTLY.
SCT AFTN/EVNG TSRAS WILL BE THE RULE WITH TEMPS NEAR AVG.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR IN THE SOUTH TERMINALS
GENERALLY KVRB-KSUA...WHERE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ON THU...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN BACK NORTHWARD AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
STORMS TO THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT THE HIGHEST
CHANCES LOOK TO BE KMLB-KSUA.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH SLICING ACROSS THE WATERS WAS
PRODUCING A GENERALLY LIGHT WIND FLOW...10 KNOTS OR LESS. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

THU-SUN (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...ANOMALOUS TROFFING PATTERN OVER
THE ERN CONUS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH LATE WEEK...ALLOWING THE ATLC
RIDGE AXIS TO REBUILD OVER WRN ATLC/ERN GOMEX. A LIGHT TO GENTLE
S/SE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL ON THU... BCMG GENTLE TO MODERATE FRI AND
CONTG THRU WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS ENTRENCHES ITSELF OVER THE
REGION. SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE THRU SAT. SEAS
BCMG 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE ON SUN AS A LONG ERLY
FETCH AROUND THE BASE OF THE ATLC RIDGE PUSHES A SMALL SWELL INTO
THE E FL COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  92  76  91 /  10  20  20  40
MCO  73  95  75  93 /  10  20  20  50
MLB  75  91  76  90 /  20  40  30  40
VRB  73  91  75  90 /  20  40  30  40
LEE  73  95  76  94 /  10  20  10  50
SFB  74  95  77  94 /  10  20  20  50
ORL  76  95  78  94 /  10  20  20  50
FPR  73  90  75  90 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....SEDLOCK






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