Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
232
FXUS62 KMLB 130116 CCA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
815 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION... THE 500MB TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD HAVE
ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO MOVE THE FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED WEST TO EAST
OVER AL/GA INTO FLORIDA EARLY IN THE NIGHT AND CLEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE 1000-500MB LAYER
SUPPORT A NIL POP AS THE FRONT DROPS DOWN THE PENINSULA.

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATING/FRESHENING THE WORDING FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

.AVIATION...VFR.

.MARINE...BUOY 009 RECORDING SOUTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND 2
FOOT SEAS. CMANS AT SEBASTIAN INLET AND TRIDENT PIER RECORDING
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS WERE
RECORDING 1 FOOT SEAS.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE EVENING AS THE
FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. PUSHES SOUTHEAST AND TIGHTENS THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN ITSELF AND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED 255 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

CURRENT-TONIGHT...A PLEASANT AND SEASONAL DAY ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO BE VERY
DRY AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ONLY PICKING UP ON A SMALL CUMULUS
FIELD ALONG/NORTH OF I-4. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO/THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MID-LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS
FEATURE AND COUPLED WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST. GUSTY SWRLY/WRLY WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING VEERING WNW/NW OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR CLIMO AND IN THE U40S/L50S.

SAT...NW/NNW WINDS BEHIND MOST RECENT FRONT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FORECAST. HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH A
FEW L70 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD. COOLEST HIGHS ALONG THE
VOLUSIA COAST AROUND 60 TO 62 DEGREES.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...NNE LOW LVL FLOW SAT EVENING WILL VEER TO THE ENE
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW INLAND AS COASTAL
TROUGH SETS UP OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN BUT DO NOT LOOK
TO REACH THE COAST BEFORE SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLC
SUNDAY WILL ALLOW LOW LVL FLOW TO VEER TO ONSHORE AND BRING SOME
MARINE STRATOCU INLAND AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ONSHORE MOVING
LIGHT SHOWER NEAR THE COAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 40 INTERIOR TO
AROUND 50 SRN CSTL. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 60S VOLUSIA COAST TO
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF E CENTRAL FL.

MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MON-FRI...
THE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THE DEEP
EASTERN TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER
WEAKENING WEST COAST RIDGE GRADUALLY DEVELOP A DEEPER TROUGH IN
THE EAST BY MIDWEEK.

THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES MONDAY AND OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS
TUE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...SO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE. THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIMIT MOISTURE
RETURN HOWEVER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE 1.3 TO
1.4 INCH RANGE MON NIGHT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60. THE GFS AND ECMWF PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS ON MON NIGHT SO
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW POPS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY TUE WITH POPS
AROUND 50-60 PERCENT FOR MON NIGHT. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...BUT HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT THUNDER
MENTION FOR MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE BASED ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE MIDWEST AT MIDWEEK
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRI. NO RAIN CHANCES ANTICIPATED AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUE.  TEMPS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
MON THEN SETTLING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL TUE-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA WITH COOL FRONT MOVING INTO A MOISTURE-STARVED ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT. NO PCPN WITH THIS
BOUNDARY BUT WILL WATCH FOR SHORT INTERVAL OF CU/SC IN ASSOC. GUSTY
SWRLY WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND VEER TO WNW/NW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE NIGHT. WNW/NW WINDS BEHIND FRONT GUSTY ON SAT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

&&

.MARINE...

AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SWRLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PGRAD TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAVORING
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS FOR WINDS OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET
FOR NEXT CWF ISSUANCE (21Z/4PM)...WITH AN SCA TAKING EFFECT AT
03Z/10PM FOR THESE SAME MARINE LEGS. WILL INITIATE SCA FOR OFFSHORE
MARINE LEG SEBASTIAN INLET-JUPITER INLET AT 09Z/4AM. CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY AT LEAST FOR NEAR SHORE SEBASTIAN INLET
NORTHWARD LATER IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO
WRLY THEN WNW/NW LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES/PASSES. SPEEDS ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS AND
GUSTY OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS. NEAR SHORE WINDS (SCEC) WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY LATER TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3 FT AREAWIDE...EXCEPT 4 FT WELL
OFFSHORE/NORTH OF CAPE WILL BUILD 4-6 FT BY SAT DAYBREAK WELL
OFFSHORE CAPE NORTHWARD.

SAT...SCA CONTINUES OFFSHORE LEGS WITH CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS NEAR
SHORE. WILL ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO MONITOR AND DECIDE IF SCA NEEDS
TO BE BROUGHT NEAR SHORE (FOR WINDS). SEAS BY THE END OF THE DAY
WILL BUILD TO 6 FT OFFSHORE AND 4-6 FT NEAR SHORE...BUT AWAY FROM
THE COAST. NW/NNW WINDS CONTINUE AREAWIDE AT SUSTAINED 20 KTS
OFFSHORE AND 15-20 KTS NEAR SHORE WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS ALL
LEGS.

MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BREEZY NORTH-
NE WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ON SAT NIGHT WILL TURN TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT
WITH HIGHER SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

MON-TUE...BREEZY EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW EARLY MON WILL QUICKLY VEER
TO THE SOUTH MON EVENING AND SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE TUE. EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT AN INCREASE
OF WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY TO 20 KNOTS
SHOULD RESULT IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN FORECAST
NORTH OF MELBOURNE...WITH LOWEST AFTN RH VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF OUR COVERAGE WARNING AREA. GUSTY SW/WRLY WINDS AS ADVERTISED
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING...BUT VEER TO W/NW THROUGH LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES/PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.

SAT...CONTINUED DRY BEHIND LATEST COLD FRONT. MIN RH VALUES IN THE
LOW/MID 30S WEST OF I-95. 20FT WINDS NW/NNW AT 10-15 MPH AND
FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  49  61  42  63 /   0   0   0  20
MCO  51  67  44  67 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  52  67  46  66 /   0   0  10  20
VRB  49  69  49  68 /   0   0  10  20
LEE  51  66  43  66 /   0   0   0  10
SFB  50  66  44  66 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  52  67  46  66 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  48  70  48  68 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
FORECASTS...WIMMER



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.