Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 071331
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...AS MENTIONED BY THE MIDSHIFT...THE 500MB
TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. STARTS FILLING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
FLATTENS AS IT LIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN
THE ATLANTIC OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BUILDS WESTWARD. LATEST
RAP40 SURFACE ANALYSIS AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
FORECAST AREA.

LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TO EAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AT
THE COAST AND PUSHES INLAND. MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM CAPE CANAVERAL
AND TAMPA REPORT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.6 AND 1.7
RESPECTIVELY. THIS IS AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMAL AND CERTAINLY
ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT 40 COASTAL AND 50 INTERIOR POP FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

STEERING FLOW STILL FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON SO THERE WILL
BE SOME INTERIOR STORMS PUSHING BACK TOWARD THE COAST AFTER THE
INITIAL CONVECTION STARTS. OUTFLOW/SEA/LAKE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
SHOULD KEEP STORMS/SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING.

WILL ISSUE A MORNING UPDATE TO CLEAN UP WORDING. TIMING OK
FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION STILL VALID...WENT WITH CONVECTIVE
TIMING SIMILAR TO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WE DID HAVE SOME LATE BLOWBACK
ACROSS THE EAST COAST...THAT SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL WIND FLOW. BEST CHC FOR TS 16-20Z OVER THE MLB-SUA
CORRIDOR AND 18Z-22Z (MAYBE AN HOUR OR TWO LATER) FROM LEE-ISM
THROUGH MCO-SFB-DAB.

.MARINE...BUOYS RECORDING PRIMARILY WINDS WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND 1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 120NM.

EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES CAPE SOUTH AND AN HOUR OR TWO LATER
NORTH OF THE CAPE. BOATERS STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE WEST FOR
SLOW MOVING STORMS APPROACHING INLAND LAKES/RIVER/INDIAN RIVER AND
MOSQUITO LAGOONS AND THE COASTAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS AFD CURRENT...

BROAD SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FL. WINDS WEAKLY
TRACE OUT THE AXIS NEAR VRB-GIF...BUT THE FLOW ABOUT THE BROAD RIDGE
IS NOT STRONG AT ALL. REMNANT DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM MON AFTN`S
WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS THINNED CONSIDERABLY. LOOKING
ALOFT...THE PENINSULA REMAINS A LITTLE WEST OF THE NARROW UPPER
RIDGE BETWEEN TWO TUTT LOWS...WHICH ARE CENTERED ALONG 25N  NEAR 71W
AND 87W. A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NERN GOMEX INTO THE
SERN CONUS...AND HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE TENACIOUS THAN THE WEEKEND
MODEL RUNS HAD SUGGESTED.

TODAY...DON`T SEE A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THE LOCAL MOISTURE OR
WIND PROFILE FROM MONDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS N-NW OF FL WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH SUNSET...WITH ITS INFLUENCE
ON THE MID LEVEL FLOW WANING. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
TO LCLY NUMEROUS DIURNAL CONVECTION TODAY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
LIKELY AS H50 TEMPS REMAIN AROUND -8 TO -8.5C. FIRST INCLINATION
WAS TO GO WITH 50 COAST/60 INLAND...BUT WILL STICK WITH 40/50 FOR
NOW. ONCOMING SHIFT CAN EXAMINE MORNING RAOB DATA TO SEE IF POPS
WARRANT A SLIGHT UPWARD BUMP TWD INITIAL THOUGHTS. MAX TEMPS IN
THE U80S AT THE COAST...L90S INLAND.

TONIGHT...ISOLD EARLY EVENING TS WILL END IN COLLAPSING STEERING
FLOW WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THEREAFTER. MINS
GENERALLY IN THE L70S.

WED-THU...DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK. AT THE SURFACE EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGING
WILL LIE ACROSS THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DEEP ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES FOR THIS TIME WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. STEERING FLOW FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST EACH DAY. FOR POPS WILL GO WITH 40
PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT VALUES ALONG
THE COAST FOR WED. LOWER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
FORECAST ON THU WITH 20 PERCENT OR LESS NEAR THE COAST AND 20 TO 30
PERCENT INTO THE INTERIOR. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
LATE EACH MORNING AND MARCH WELL INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FRI-MON...THE MID/UPPER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
MAINTAINS ITS GRIP INITIALLY BUT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MIGRATES
WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL SETTLE SLOWLY BACK SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA. CURRENTLY...DRIER AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO HANG
ON ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE VALUES
RETURN AGAIN BY SUN/MON...ACCORDING TO THE GFS. BELOW AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST FRI/SAT...BUT RETURN BACK TOWARD NORMAL
SUN/MON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK WITH THE DAILY EAST/WEST
SEA BREEZE REGIMES EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMO FOR BOTH HIGHS/LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...WENT WITH CONVECTIVE TIMING SIMILAR TO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
WE DID HAVE SOME LATE BLOWBACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST...THAT SEEMS
LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL WIND FLOW. BEST CHC FOR TS
16-20Z OVER THE MLB-SUA CORRIDOR AND 18Z-22Z (MAYBE AN HOUR OR TWO
LATER) FROM LEE-ISM THROUGH MCO-SFB-DAB.

&&

.MARINE... TODAY/TONIGHT...STATUS QUO. LIGHT SRLY WIND FLOW BLO
10KT WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTN SEA BREEZE CIRC. WINDS LOOK TO BACK
SLIGHTLY TO S-SE LATE TONIGHT. SEAS 2FT OR A LITTLE LESS NEAR SHORE
AND 2-3FT WELL OFFSHORE.

WED-SAT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE ACROSS THE NORTH FL
PENINSULA WED/THU BEFORE DROPPING BACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA FRI/SAT. ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST WITH
DEEP ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AND DRIER AIR ALOFT. FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS WITH SEAS AOB 3 FT. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP EACH DAY AND ADVANCE INLAND WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN SPEEDS
ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  73  89  74 /  40  20  20  20
MCO  93  73  91  74 /  50  20  40  20
MLB  88  74  88  76 /  40  20  20  20
VRB  88  73  89  73 /  40  20  20  20
LEE  93  74  92  77 /  50  20  40  20
SFB  92  73  91  74 /  50  20  40  20
ORL  93  74  90  75 /  50  20  40  20
FPR  87  73  89  74 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...JOHNSON
FORECASTS...WIMMER


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