Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 060142
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
942 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME N/NW INTO TONIGHT
BEHIND A PASSING REINFORCING FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS WILL USHER IN
DRIER/COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION. W/NW SFC WINDS HAVE DECREASED AFTER SUNSET AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT TO AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FRI...THE OMEGA BLOCK SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. THE LOW
CURRENTLY EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS ELONGATES AND
LIFTS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH CENTERS OFF THE OUTER BANKS
AND CAPE COD. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTER THIRD OF THE U.S.
ALSO SHIFTS SOME TO THE EAST. END RESULT...STILL NORTHWEST WINDS
AND DRY COOLER AIR ADVECTION INTO FLORIDA. SINGLE DIGIT POP AND
SEVERAL HOURS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOON.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING FINALLY WEAKENS AND PUSHES EAST
AWAY FROM THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER NW FLOW. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER EASTWARD AND WILL LIE ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA SAT OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY WITH MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S COAST/LOWER 80S INLAND AND LOWS IN THE U50S/L60S.

SUN-THU...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN
WITH SW/W FLOW ALOFT PAST MID-WEEK. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRANSITION FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLC ON SUN WITH
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA MON-EARLY TUE...LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT
OF THE FORECAST THRU TUE NIGHT. THE GFS SUGGESTS A SLIGHT
MOISTURE INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON WED-THU WITH ONLY A SMALL (20
PERCENT OR LESS) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH MID 80S CLOSE TO THE COAST. LOWS WILL ALSO BE
MILDER...MODERATING BACK INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...WILL ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING...BUT WILL STILL
NEED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT FOR NW WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET
OFFSHORE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

WEITLICH/LASCODY



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