Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 170152
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
952 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TREASURE COAST ON THU...

TONIGHT-THU...QUITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID APRIL CENTERED WELL
TO OUR NORTH WAS PRODUCING A GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.  THIS WAS
MODIFYING THE COOLER/DRIER AIR THAT BUILT IN THIS MORNING.  RADAR
HAS ALREADY STARTED TO PICK UP A SMALL AMOUNT OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE ATLANTIC.

NORTHERN SECTIONS WERE DRIER INITIALLY SO EXPECT THAT THE MAIN
INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE IN THE SOUTH
CLOSER TO OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BEGIN TO RETURN SLOWLY
NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THU.  THE LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS THIS
BASIC SCENARIO UNFOLDING AND SUGGESTS SOME MORE CONCENTRATED...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL IN MARTIN COUNTY TOWARDS SUNRISE.  THIS MODEL USUALLY
PICKS UP ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS...BUT OFTEN
OVERDOES AMOUNTS.

CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CHANGE OUR CURRENT FORECAST MUCH IN
THE SOUTH FOR TONIGHT/EARLY THU...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE 18Z GFS
PRACTICALLY HALVED THE THU POPS FROM THE 12Z RUN.  WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ON THU AND QUITE BREEZY NORTHEAST/EAST
FLOW...THINK THAT THE 18Z RUN MISSED THE MARK A BIT EVEN THOUGH
THERE IS NO READILY DISCERNIBLE IMPULSE ALOFT.  WE WILL NEED TO LET
THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT THE 00Z RUN BEFORE CHANGING THE
ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THU.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF MVFR CEILINGS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE ATLANTIC SHOWERS PUSHED INLAND BY GUSTY
NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS...WITH CHANCES HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH AND
GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD ON THU.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR A
COASTAL BLOWUP OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT KVRB-KSUA
TOWARDS SUNRISE AND THROUGH THU.  THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCAL IFR AND
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-THU...GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO
START EASING OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS EARLY THU BUT SEAS WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE.  ALSO...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SO A
COMBINATION OF WIND/WAVE/WEATHER WILL RESULT IN BAD BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THU.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...WEITLICH





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