Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 210128
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
927 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE GA/SC
COAST AND MOVE FARTHER NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LOW LVL FLOW AROUND THE
LOW FROM THE N TO NW WILL ALLOW SHOWERS MOVE SSE ALONG THE VOLUSIA
COUNTY COAST AND NRN BREVARD COUNTY COAST TO AROUND THE CAPE THROUGH
AROUND 1 AM. DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN SECTIONS MAY
ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
MID LVL TROUGH AXIS. HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TO SHOW HIGHEST CHC
ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST (40-50 PCT) TO 30 LOWERING TO 20 PCT FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FL OVERNIGHT. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OFF THE OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST AND LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. BAND OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
CAPE CANAVERAL TO TAMPA BAY. WHILE FARTHER NORTH DRIER AIR WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES LIMITED. HAVE POPS RANGING FROM 20 PERCENT
NORTH OF ORLANDO TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE
TREASURE COAST. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

MON...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOW TO CLEAR FLORIDA AS ILLUSTRATED
BY TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH
MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 NORTH TO 2
INCHES SOUTHERN PORTION OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAX TRACKING OVERHEAD SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND 60 PERCENT FOR
THE DAY.

MON NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY RIDGES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND INTO NORTH EARLY THEN INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATE MON NIGHT. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THE WIND FINALLY SHIFTS AROUND
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST EARLY TUE.

TUE...NO APPRECIABLE DROP IN LAYER MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES COUPLED WITH VORTICITY MAX CROSSING OVERHEAD
CENTRAL FLORIDA RAIN CHANCES STILL AROUND 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR TUE.

WED-FRI...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE UNITED STATES. RAIN CHANCES DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT AS A
STABLE MOIST MARINE AIR MASS MOVES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE MID
LEVEL VORTICITY SUPPORT DECREASES APPRECIABLY.

&&

.AVIATION...CHC FOR SHRA MAINLY KDAB VCNTY THROUGH 05Z...WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY MORE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE ATLC LATER TONIGHT AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER NE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR...THOUGH COULD SEE
SOME LCL MVFR CIGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...

.UPDATE...SOME STRONGER WINDS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE VOLUSIA ATLC
WATERS AND OFFSHORE BREVARD WATERS TO 15-20 KNOTS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW SO WILL RAISE SCEC FOR THE CENTRAL/NRN WATERS FOR
TONIGHT. SEAS HAD INCREASED TO 4-5 FT AT BUOY 41009 AND 7-8 FT AT
BUOY 41010 WELL OFFSHORE. MODELS SHOW DECREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY AND PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT
TOWARD SUNRISE INTO SUNDAY...SO SEAS SHOULD PEAK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TONIGHT/SUN...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF NORTH FLORIDA WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA INTO TOMORROW. WINDS WILL RANGE
FROM THE N/NW OFF OF THE VOLUSIA COAST TO THE W/SW FROM THE CAPE
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OFFSHORE OF BREVARD COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND PULLS AWAY. WINDS THEN WILL RELAX INTO
TOMORROW WITH WINDS BECOMING E/NE NEAR THE COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS SEA BREEZE FORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MON...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE AS A FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH MON
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BUILDS DOWN
THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS TO 4 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM.

TUE-WED...EAST WINDS TO 15 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SHINGLE CREEK
BASIN EARLIER TODAY HAS ALLOWED THE CREEK TO RISE TO WITHIN A FEW
TENTHS OF ACTION STAGE AT CAMPBELL THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
IS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT ANY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE BASIN ON
SUNDAY MAY ALLOW THE CREEK TO RISE FURTHER. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. FLOOD STATEMENTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY ON SUNDAY IF HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

VOLKMER/MOSES









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