Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 240733
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER
LEVEL DRYING MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EVEN WARMER AND MUGGIER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH
DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. NEXRAD
88D QUIET THUS FAR BUT COULD STILL YET SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF STREAM COASTAL WATERS BEFORE
DAYBREAK. WINDS WHEN NOT CALM ARE MAINLY SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT. THE
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

TODAY-TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS/FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE NORTH. 500 MB TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE WARM AT AROUND -5.5C TO -6C. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK AS LIGHT/VARIABLE EARLY MORNING WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH...EVENTUALLY BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION. THE
SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP SOONER AND MOVE INLAND A LITTLE QUICKER OVER
THE TREASURE COAST ONCE AGAIN. BOTH THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES
WILL MEET UP OVER THE INTERIOR LATE TODAY AND ALONG WITH VARIOUS
OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WE SHOULD SEE POP CHANCES NEAR
40 PERCENT FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL
MONITOR TO SEE IF ANY CONVECTION CAN MAKE IT BACK TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING...MAINLY CAPE NORTHWARD.

STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS REMAINS VERY LIGHT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING WITH A MAIN DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
NEAR 5 MPH...THOUGH MANY CELLS WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT ERRATIC MOVEMENT
AT TIMES. AS SUCH...A FEW CELLS MAY PUT DOWN 2 TO 3 INCH RAINS
LOCALLY IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME LEADING TO PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS WITH OTHER NUISANCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS POSSIBLE.
OTHER THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
IN STRONGER CELLS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING AND SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOWER LAYERS DECOUPLE. SOME SHALLOW/PATCHY GROUND
FOG IS POSSIBLE IN PRONE AREAS.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AT THE COAST
WITH LOW TO MID 90S INLAND. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 98F-103F
THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS MUGGY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRI-SUN...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. LATE
THIS WEEK WITH SFC COOL FRONT NORTH OF FLORIDA. MODELS SHOW THIS
WILL KEEP RIDGE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES OVER THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST TO WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
KEEP SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY. WHILE TEMPS ALOFT DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO
THROUGH THE PERIOD NO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE SHOWN IN THE
MODELS TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONVECTION MAINLY DRIVEN BY
SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
STEERED SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST NORTH OF THE CAPE. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR
OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORM
DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RESIDE IN THE LOW 90S
WITH SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S.

MON-WED...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS BACK DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
INTO EARLY THIS WEEK WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS FARTHER SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND KEEPS A DEEPER
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION. GFS PW VALUES SHOW SOME DRYING
OCCURRING ACROSS AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD MONDAY BEFORE DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THESE NORTHERN
AREAS TUES AND WED. THIS MAY INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN POPS BETWEEN 30-50 PERCENT.

WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EITHER NOT DEVELOPING OR REMAINING NEAR THE
COAST FROM THE OFFSHORE FLOW...MAX TEMPS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD-SCT TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP 16Z-18Z WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE KMLB-KSUA. THEN STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR
TERMINALS DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. VCTS FOR NOW IN TAFS WITH FUTURE SHIFTS LEFT
TO CONSIDER TEMPO GROUPS FOR CONVECTION. LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ALL CONTINUING THREATS WITH STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THE MORNING SSW WIND
COMPONENT WILL BECOME ESE/SE AGAIN NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH ECSB DEVELOPMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY S/SSW ELSEWHERE.
WINDS AGAIN S/SSW TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS AWAY FROM THE COAST 10-15 KTS
DUE TO A NOCTURNAL INCREASE WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY AOB 10 KTS DURING
THE DAY...EXCEPT 10-12 KTS NEAR THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION.
ANOTHER NOCTURNAL WIND INCREASE THIS EVENING WILL PUSH WINDS AGAIN
TO AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. SEAS AOB 3
FT BUT WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF OF ISOLD STRONG STORMS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OVER
INTRACOASTAL WATERWAYS/IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW FOR CELLS IS LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY THOUGH DIRECTIONAL
COMPONENT LIKELY ERRATIC AT BEST DUE TO LIGHT NATURE OF STEERING
WINDS. MARINERS NEAR THE COAST WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS MARINE THREATS CONTINUE
TO BE CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A
COUPLE OF CELLS MAY MAKE IT BACK TO THE COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY CAPE NORTHWARD.

FRI-MON...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL RESIDE NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE
FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE IT SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE OUT OF THE
S/SW DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING S/SE
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMS ALONG THE COAST.
FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO MONDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. SEAS RANGING FROM 1-2 FEET NEARSHORE UP TO 2-3
FEET OFFSHORE. GREATEST THREAT FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL BE
FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  75  92  76 /  30  30  50  30
MCO  93  76  94  76 /  40  30  50  20
MLB  90  76  90  77 /  40  20  40  20
VRB  89  74  90  75 /  40  20  30  20
LEE  94  77  93  76 /  40  30  50  20
SFB  94  77  94  77 /  40  30  50  20
ORL  93  77  94  77 /  40  30  50  20
FPR  88  74  90  75 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM/RADAR....WEITLICH





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