Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 281934
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FAIR WEATHER FORECAST. THE
CENTER OF A LARGE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LUMBER
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID PART OF THE COUNTRY TO VICINITY OF
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA SUN AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHWEST/NORTH FLOW OF COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
LOOK MAINLY IN THE 40S...WHICH WILL BE THE COOLEST READINGS SINCE
FEB 20-21. THE NORTHERLY WIND TRAJECTORY WILL ALSO KEEP SOME COOL
ADVECTION GOING ON SUNDAY...SO EVEN WITH FULL SUN...HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...WITH SOME MID 60S ALONG THE
VOLUSIA COAST.

MON-FRI...(FROM PREV DISC)THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OF
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN
THE WEEK RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SFC...THE TAIL END
OF A MUCH WEAKER FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND WASH OUT.
THEN THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD WEST OVER THE
NORTH/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE MID 80S INTERIOR AND LOW 80S COAST BY FRI. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL APPROACH THEN CROSS FL WED INTO
THU SO HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL SHOWER CHANCES THEN. NO SEVERE WEATHER
(OR EVEN THUNDER) IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SUN...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND WILL
EXPIRE THE OFFSHORE ADVISORY WITH THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. WILL
CARRY A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IN THE GULF STREAM
FOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE
TO VICINITY GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY WHILE STRENGTHENING A
COUPLE MILLIBARS. THEREFORE...A NORTHERLY BREEZE NEAR 15 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH POOR CONDITIONS OCCURRING OFFSHORE...
PARTICULARLY IN THE GULF STREAM.

MON-WED...BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND PRES GRAD COLLAPSES MON. THE
TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
ADJ ATLC WATERS TUE AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF NW-N WINDS 10- 15
KNOTS. THEN A MORE PERSISTENT E-SE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS ATLC HIGH BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 20S WILL OCCUR AGAIN
SUNDAY OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. NO HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH PRESENCE OF WEAK
WIND AND AN ONSHORE COMPONENT AT TIMES EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAV GUIDANCE AT VERO BEACH IS 44 DEGREES SUNDAY MORNING.

RECORD LOWS FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
DAB 37 1955
MCO 39 1955
MLB 43 1983
VRB 44 2013

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  43  65  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  48  71  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  45  69  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  44  70  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  45  70  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  46  69  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  50  70  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  45  70  48  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST


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