Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 250212
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
912 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT/OVERNIGHT...THIN PRE-FRONTAL WEAKENING CONVECTIVE BAND
(SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER) TRAVERSING THE I-4 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE STILL REMAINS BRIEF/BROAD ROTATION
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CELLS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE TREND FOR THIS LINE
IS TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH/EAST THRU LATE NIGHT. MORE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICS AND DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. S/SW
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL VEER W/NW BEHIND BOUNDARY
PASSAGE. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT FROM THIS. COOLER
AIR USHERED IN WITH THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE
UPPER 50S ACROSS LAKE/INLAND VOLUSIA WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S
FARTHER SOUTH.

CHRISTMAS DAY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST IN THE
MORNING BUT BY THE AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO END.
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S FROM ORLANDO AREA NORTH TO LOW
70S FARTHER SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...PRE-FRONTAL/THIN LINE OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA MOVING ALONG
THE I-4 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. INDIVIDUAL CELLS IN THE EASTWARD
MOVING LINE WITH SW-NW MOVEMENT. THE TREND FOR THIS WEAKENING LINE
TO CONTINUE ADVANCING FURTHER EAST/SOUTH ACROSS ECFL THRU THE NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS TO AVIATION.
TEMPO IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ASSOC WITH CONVECTION. COLD FRONT
WILL SWITCH WINDS FROM S/SW TO W/NW AS IT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
LOWER CLOUD DECK BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE MORE PREDOMINANT
MVFR CIGS FOR A PERIOD INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT-CHRISTMAS DAY...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. WILL
LIKELY EXTEND CURRENT SCA FOR WINDS UNTIL 09Z/4AM AND ALLOW NEXT
FORECAST SHIFT TO EXPIRE IT IF CONDITIONS ALLOW. FOR ONE MORE
PERIOD...WILL ALSO CONTINUE CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS NEAR SHORE SOUTH
OF THE BREVARD-VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE. CURRENT S/SSW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER TO SW/W THRU LATE NIGHT...THEN NW/W BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AND LATER FOR SOUTHERN MARINE LEGS.
OFFSHORE MOVING SHRA/ISOLD TSRA A BIGGER THREAT NORTH OF THE CAPE
THIS EVENING...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF
THE ENERGY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM IS RACING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA...THUS LESSER IMPACTS SOUTHWARD. SEAS 4-6 FT OFFSHORE/GULF
STREAM WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-5 FT THRU CHRISTMAS DAY. NEAR SHORE SEAS
MAINLY 3-4 FT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM EST LATE NIGHT FOR
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/BLOTTMAN




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