Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 311301
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
901 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES AREAWIDE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...MORNING 915MHZ CAPE PROFILES SHOW DEEP SSE/S FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 10.0KFT. KXMR SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWS MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES (700/500MB, +9.0C/-7.8C) RESPECTIVELY WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.07 INCHES.

AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL DEPICTED IN THE EASTERN GULF AND
IS FORECAST TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
TO GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD ECFL. THE GFS POOLS DEEPER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS NORTH/NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA UP TO
2.40 INCHES. MOISTURE VALUES TAPER DOWN THROUGH THE TREASURE COAST.
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND PUSH SLOWLY INLAND. EXPECT INITIAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO FORM ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND JUST INLAND WITH COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH LATE
DAY AND INCREASING NORTH/WEST FROM THE TREASURE COAST. WILL KEEP 60
TO 70 PERCENT POPS ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND TAPER DOWN TO AROUND
40 TO 50 PERCENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MARTIN COUNTY COAST AND THIS
HERE COULD STILL BE A BIT HIGH. THE LOCAL HRRR MODEL ALSO SUGGESTS
STRONGER STORMS/HIGHER COVERAGE INLAND/NORTH TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL
BOUNDARY MERGERS AND DEEPER MOISTURE HERE.

HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 45 MPH
WILL CONTINUE AS THREATS. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND NUISANCE FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS AS WELL
AS ANYWHERE ELSE WHERE ABUNDANT RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER RECENT
DAYS. CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH AT
AROUND 20 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION...DEEP SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VCTS MAINLY AFT 18Z
WITH ASSOC TEMPO GROUPS. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT-NMRS
CONVECTION. SEA BREEZE/MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL AID TO
INCREASE COVERAGE LATE IN THE DAY. DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS LIKELY TO BE DROPPED
FOR OFFSHORE ZONES FOR THE 10AM/14Z CWF ISSUANCE AS BOTH WINDS/SEAS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE. PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELL CONTINUES
OVER THE WATERS. S/SSE WINDS DECREASING TO 10-15 KTS INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
SEAS FALLING TO 3-5 FT THRU THE AFTN AND 3-4 FT TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS NORTH OF THE CAPE WITH
LOWER (POSSIBLY MUCH LOWER) COVERAGE OVER THE TREASURE COAST WATERS.
STORM MOTION WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SO SOME
STORMS NEAR THE COAST...ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...MAY PUSH
ACROSS INTRACOASTAL/NEAR SHORE ATLC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SHINGLE CREEK AT CAMPBELL (SHIF1) REMAINS WITHIN 0.78
FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE. FORTUNATELY LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL OCCURRED
OVER THE BASIN OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR PERSISTENT
RAINFALL OVER THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD
     COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ST.
     LUCIE.

AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...SEDLOCK
IMPACT WEATHER...VOLKMER/LASCODY



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