Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 030938
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
438 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Today...Cool northerly flow this morning will veer out of the
northeast as high pressure moves east across the Ohio valley with
a ridge axis extending SE off the Carolina coast. There will be
some mid and high level clouds streaming across the area in fast
westerly flow aloft. And a shallow/thin layer of moisture trapped
beneath the subsidence inversion will produce some stratocumulus.
So the sky condition looks partly cloudy with occasional broken/
overcast skies. No rain is expected. High temperatures will range
from the lower 70s along the Volusia coast to the mid and upper
70s elsewhere.

Breezy NE winds will produce rough surf and a small long period
swell will contribute to a moderate risk of rip currents.

Tonight...Not as cool with onshore flow keeping low temps in the
upper 50s over the north interior and mid to upper 60s coastal
counties south of the Cape, even lower 70s immediate treasure
coast.

Sun-Sun Night...Relatively flat ridging with near zonal flow aloft
will continue across the area for this period. Surface high pressure
over the Ohio Valley and mid Atlc coast will weaken and move off of
the eastern seaboard. Light morning easterly winds will continue to
veer to ESE/SE over the next 24hrs while increasing up to around 15
mph during the day and falling back to 5 mph over the interior and 5-
10 mph across the Space/Treasure coasts during the evening. An
overall pleasant day but will see increasing cloud cover as moisture
deepens ahead of an approaching weather system. High temperatures
forecast in the U70s areawide. Overnight lows mild and generally in
the 60s with highest readings in the U60s to near 70 degrees along
the Space/Treasure coasts. Conditions will remain dry.

Mon-Tue...The flow aloft will remain W/SW across the FL Peninsula
with strongest mid-upper level energy keeping well northward.
Surface high pressure off of the southeast U.S. coast early next
week moves slowly deeper into the western Atlc. Still feel
comfortable keeping Mon during the day dry with rain chances
generally less than 20 percent over land, but moisture will continue
to deepen making conditions feel fairly humid. We do introduce low
end CHC PoPs (30 percent) across the deep interior and Volusia coast
Mon night with 20 percent chances elsewhere as the next system draws
near. The ECMWF remains more aggressive than the GFS and drags a
frontal boundary through the area Tue overnight. Have introduced
thunder on Tue areawide with precipitation chances generally 40 to
50 percent areawide. Showery precipitation should end from northwest
to southeast during the evening.

Afternoon highs will continue to moderate upward and will be several
degrees or more above climo. Overnight lows rather mild and also
well above climo early next week as well.

Wed-Fri...The flow aloft continues to remain W/SW across the region.
Confidence continues to remain low between medium range models
(GFS/ECMWF). The GFS still hangs the previous front up across the
south-central peninsula on Wed and if this were to hold true would
keep precipitation chances possible across St. Lucie, Martin, and
Okeechobee counties. The ECMWF remains more consistent bringing the
next front into the area late Thu/early Fri along with more moisture
which would spell higher precipitation chances again ahead of it.
Currently have showery precipitation mention in the forecast and
will alter as confidence increases in later shifts. Much
cooler/drier air possible behind this stronger weather system for
Fri and into at least the early part of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. Ocnl cigs around 035 AGL possible south of MLB. Breezy
northeast winds near 15 knots at coastal terminals developing
after sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...High pressure will build east and off the US east coast
veering our winds from north to northeast. The pressure gradient
will support wind speeds around 15 knots. The north wind component
will continue to produce choppy (short period) seas especially in
the gulf stream where occasional seas of 6 feet will occur so
small craft should exercise caution over the open atlantic.

Tonight...Winds will become easterly with a period of 15-20 knots
across much of the waters so caution headline will likely be
needed.

Sun-Wed...Surface high pressure moves off of the southeast U.S.
coast by late Sun and into early next week. A weak frontal boundary
will pass across the coastal waters Tue overnight and early Wed
morning. A SCHC for lightning storms will exist on Tue into Tue
evening.

E/ESE winds around daybreak Sun morning continue to veer SE thru Sun
night, then SSE/S on Mon/Mon night and SWRLY on Tue ahead of the
front. Wind speeds will average around 15 kts over the open Atlc
over much of this time, perhaps 15-20 kts offshore ahead of the
approaching front late Mon/Mon night. Latest model guidance suggests
20 kt winds on Tue before winds decrease Tue evening/night.

Seas initially 3-4 ft on Sun into early Mon evening, before building
back to 4-5 ft offshore Mon night. On Tue seas may build up to
around 6 ft over the Gulf Stream, perhaps 7 ft well offshore/north
of the Cape. Seas will begin a rapid decrease Tue night into Wed as
the pgrad weakens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  61  77  64 /   0  10  10  10
MCO  76  60  79  64 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  76  64  78  68 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  77  64  78  68 /   0  10  10  10
LEE  76  58  78  65 /   0   0   0  10
SFB  76  59  77  65 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  76  60  78  64 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  77  64  77  68 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelly
LONG TERM....Sedlock



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