Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 230223
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1020 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017
...Rain chances will increase Sunday, mainly across the south...
.UPDATE...Diurnal rainfall ended around sunset across the CWA,
however a very late sea breeze collision sparked a narrow band of
moderate rain showers over Lake County a little after 900 PM. Since
this activity will likely end in another hour, will hold off on an
update until then, and remove showers from the forecast outside of
the SE CWA, where they are expected to redevelop well after midnight.
Also removed mention of thunder across that area through 12Z,
keeping storms confined to the Atlantic.
Latest radar/satellite and short range model trends continue to
indicate bulk of precip with the SE GOMEX/FL straits system will
remain confined to the southern CWA southward across the southern
peninsula/keys. Some diurnally forced showers/storms are possible
farther north, mainly in the late morning/afternoon.
AVIATION...VFR with precip likely holding off for the VRB-FPR-SUA
corridor until 06Z-09Z at the earliest. MVFR CIGs/VSBYs in showers
expected to increase in coverage with best chances centered around
12Z-18Z. Lower coverage over the aerodromes farther north and west
.MARINE...Sultry SE to SSE flow of near 15KT with seas 3-4FT near
shore and 4-5FT well offshore. Inherited CWF looks fine.
**Note to users** In addition to NOAA Buoy 41010, 120 miles east of
New Smyrna Beach, which was redeployed yesterday evening around 640
PM, NOAA Buoy 41009 located 20 miles east of Cape Canaveral was also
redeployed at about 1130 AM this morning. Scripps Buoy 41116 remains
in place in the same vicinity as 41009. It is not known at this time
when/where/if the Scripps Buoy will picked up and redeployed.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017/
Sunday...Not much change from previous forecast as the weak mid-
level trough roughly over the southern half of FL early will lift
northeastward. Models forecast an area of convection in association
with this upper disturbance across the south-central peninsula early
in the day. A stronger mid-level trough over the Southeastern US
will advance to across the Gulf Coast by 24/00Z. Sct to numerous
showers from N-S will develop during Sun with the 23/12Z through
24/00z frame the best time for measurable rainfall.
Pseudo warm sector south of the lifting low pressure wl allow for
some embedded storm development...primarily over the Space and
Treasure Cst and adjacent waters with none expected to become
particularly strong during the morning and into afternoon.
Mon-Mon Night...(from previous) The upper low over south GA
associated with the upper trough over the FL peninsula will
quickly swing off of the southeast U.S. coast taking associated
energy with it eastward by 00Z Tue. The weak front will swing thru
ECFL fairly early in the period with breezy westerly winds during
the day. Precipitation chances decrease areawide by 18Z from the
west and will leave conditions dry for Mon night as weak high
pressure builds into the area from the west. Cooler temperatures
with L80s for highs, except a few M80s possible Treasure Coast.
Lows Mon overnight should range from the U50s to L60s areawide.
Tue-Fri...Post-frontal drying with zonal flow aloft through early
Thu, then shortwave ridging aloft building across the area. Dry and
mild conditions will remain in place through the extended with a
weak high pressure weather pattern in place. Any relief in
temperatures behind the last system will be short-lived as highs
soar into the 80s areawide into late week and lows generally in the
Mainly VFR into tonight with isold shra developing along coastal
sites aft 23/00z. Isolated showers will be possible coastal and
inland sites through 23/00z, and may produce brief MVFR conditions.
SCT SHRA developing FM 23/13z-23/22z will spread North and East,
producing OCNL MVFR conds during Sunday.
Tonight-Sunday...A weak disturbance will move across the south-
central peninsula Sun ahead of a weak front that will push into
north FL Sun afternoon, then near the central peninsula by early Mon
morning. SSE winds will veer to westerly overnight with the approach
of the weather system. Wind speeds 10-15 kts. Seas 3-4 ft near shore
and around 4-5 ft offshore. Scattered showers with isolated storms
are forecast on Sun into Sun night with greatest chances roughly
south of Cape Canaveral.
Mon-Wed...(from previous) The weakening weather system will move
through on Mon with high pressure building into the area Tue-Wed.
Scattered showers and isolated storms possible on Mon, but chances
less than on Sun. Tue- Wed look dry. Westerly winds are forecast
to become breezy over the open Atlc on Mon afternoon with speeds
15-20 kts here decreasing Mon overnight. The pressure gradient
then weakens into mid-week with lighter wind speeds. Initial seas
3-4 ft near shore and 5 ft offshore will continue to subside into
mid-week as the winds decrease, becoming AOB 3 ft areawide by Wed
Sunday...Lighter winds and lower dispersion values wl create
environment for settling of smoke near any ongoing or smoldering
brush fires. Lingering smoke could again produce locally reduced,
visibilities on nearby roadways.
RH values due to higher moisture, possibler rainfall and cloud cover
will keep fire weather conditions outside of critical levels Sun.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 67 84 67 81 / 20 40 30 30
MCO 68 89 68 83 / 20 50 30 30
MLB 70 84 70 84 / 20 50 30 30
VRB 70 85 69 84 / 30 60 40 30
LEE 69 87 67 81 / 20 40 20 30
SFB 68 87 67 82 / 20 40 30 30
ORL 69 88 68 82 / 20 40 30 30
FPR 69 84 68 85 / 30 60 40 20