Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 271335
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
935 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...Much Below Normal Rain Chances Through Late this Week...

Today-Tonight...No changes to the current forecast.

Deep layer high pressure, with ridge axis across the central
peninsula in the lower levels and just north of the state at
the mid-upper levels, was producing drier and more stable conditions
than normal.  This pattern will provide no relief for the parched
coastal areas since convective initiation on the east coast sea
breeze will be delayed.  We expect isolated showers/storms to form
on the boundary, but this will be west of I-95.  Most of the
interior has been much drier than normal too and mesoscale models
don`t indicate much afternoon/evening coverage there either.  The
greatest chance will once again be in the vicinity of Lake county
where the east/west coast sea breeze boundaries collide in the
evening.

Max temps will be at or a little above normal along the coast, while
the interior climbs into the middle 90s.  A few upper 90s are also
possible, however dew points will fall slightly to the lower 70s
during peak heating, so heat indices should top out 100-105, which
is close to long term averages for July/August in east central
Florida. What has made it feel so hot is that there has been limited
rain and outflow boundary cooling, making it feel hot well into the
evening.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR except for isolated showers/storms that could
affect the inland terminals this afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Good conditions for small craft operation as the
axis of the Bermuda High extends across the waters.  This will keep
the gradient wind light.  The afternoon/nighttime diurnal
accelerations along the coast/offshore will produce periods of 10-15
knot winds but the limited duration/fetch will not impact seas much,
with 1-2 feet near shore and 2-2.5 feet offshore.  Radar/satellite
do not suggest much shower or storm activity either.

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...Lascody
IMPACT WX/AVIATION...Johnson



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