Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 060955
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
455 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS
THE THERMAL RIDGE WORKS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO
SOAR INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER SUNNY
SKIES WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES MAY EXCEED 90
DEGREES IN SOUTHWESTERN MN. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
11 AM THROUGH 7 PM FOR CENTRAL MN AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 MPH AND HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN TO WEST CENTRAL MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND IS THE FEATURE OF FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LATER INTO THE
NIGHT AND THE FARTHER SOUTH THE FRONT GOES...THE HIGHER THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. HI-RES CAMS INDICATE SCATTERED PRECIP
BREAKING OUT AFTER 21Z IN WEST CENTRAL MN...AND AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH...MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
THE HI- RES ARW AND NMM INDICATE A SECONDARY MORE CONCENTRATED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TAKING OFF OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...BUT THE NAM- NEST IS MUCH MORE TAME IN ITS EXPECTATIONS.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE ALSO TAME IN COMPARISON AND SHOVES ANY PRECIP
CHANCE SOUTH OF THE MN/IA BORDER BY 12Z TOMORROW. HENCE...KEPT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR THIS AREA AS CONFIDENCE
IN PLACEMENT AND INITIATION IS LOW.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY...BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PRECIP ACTIVITY.
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALREADY BE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MN ONCE AGAIN
BY 12Z TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL COMMENCE WITH A CDFNT
HAVING DROPPED S THRU MN/WI...BRINGING ANY LINGERING SHWRS/TSTMS
ALSO S OF BOTH STATES. SFC HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW INTO THE REGION
WHILE NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. THE NW FLOW WILL BE ON THE ERN SIDE
OF A SHARP NW-SE ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS FROM THE NRN PLAINS THRU THE
SERN GULF COAST THAT WILL SHIFT EWD THRU THE WEEKEND AND COLLAPSE
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE COLLAPSES...THE SFC HIGH PRES
WILL ALSO DRIFT OFF TO THE SE AND ALLOW A DRY CDFNT TO SLIDE SWD
THRU THE AREA SUN...BRINGING AN INCRS IN CLOUD COVER BUT ALSO
REINFORCING THE MILD AIR IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 70 DEGREES SAT AND SUN WHILE LOWS REMAIN AROUND 50
DEGREES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE
FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER DROPS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES FROM
NW CANADA. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL THEN MERGE AND GENERALLY REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. AT THE SFC...THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN MULTIPLE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REGION. ATTM...CHANCES LOOK BEST
FOR MONDAY THRU TUESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES GOING THRU MIDWEEK.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK RATHER LOW BUT NON-ZERO...WITH BEST
POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR THROUGH THE DAY EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
PLACEMENT...TIMING...AND COVERAGE BASED ON DISAGREEMENT IN THE
GUIDANCE. SO..CONTINUED PROB30 MENTION AT A FEW SITES...WITH AREAS
NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES LIKELY TO HAVE THE FRONT GO THROUGH
BEFORE ANY PRECIP CAN GET GOING. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WANT TO
BRING A SECONDARY ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. NOT SOLD ON THIS RIGHT NOW SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE
TAF...BUT SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF AND FOR LATER SHIFTS TO TRY AND
NAIL DOWN.

KMSP...VERY TOUGH TO SAY IF MSP WILL GET PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON...AS DEVELOPMENT COULD BE HIT OR MISS AND COULD HAPPEN
AFTER THE FRONT IS THROUGH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR IN SHWRS/TSTMS. WIND SE 6-12 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MN
TODAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 25 MPH AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT.
TODAY IS A DECENT SETUP FOR TEMPS AND WINDS EXCEEDING OUR FORECAST
EXPECTATIONS. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER MIXING
THAN THE GUIDANCE SOMETIMES CAN FORESEE. IN ADDITION...MUCH OF THE
FUELS FOR WILDFIRES IN CENTRAL MN AND TO THE NORTH REMAIN DORMANT
AND DRY AT THIS TIME. HENCE...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD WITH A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR CENTRAL MN. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...SIMILAR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST...BUT THE FUELS ARE MUCH FARTHER
ALONG IN TERMS OF GREEN UP...MAKING THEM LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE.
HOWEVER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS STILL EXIST IN THESE
AREAS TODAY DUE TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND STRONG WINDS. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT ADVISED.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ041>045-047>053-055>063.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD
FIRE WEATHER...SPD



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