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000
FXUS63 KMPX 121809
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
109 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

TODAY WILL BE QUITE COOL FOR MID MARCH. MN/WI IS STILL SEEING COLD
ADVECTION THIS MORNING AND A BIT OF NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL MAKE IT
FEEL EVEN COOLER. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE...AS THE MATURE
CYCLONE THAT IS BRINGING HEAVY SNOWS FROM CHICAGO TO DETROIT THIS
MORNING MOVES EAST BY THE NOON HOUR. THE COLD ADVECTION YESTERDAY
ALSO ACTED TO SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE...WE SAW THE MPX
SOUNDING GO FROM 0.64" TO 0.22" IN 12 HOURS TIME YESTERDAY. THERE
ARE STILL A COUPLE BATCHES OF CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS MORNING AND
BOTH HAVE PRODUCED A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THE BATCH IN
WESTERN WI IS TIED TO THE CORE OF COLDEST DROPPING SOUTHEAST
BEHIND THE WINTER AND THE BATCH IN WESTERN MN IS LIKELY TIED TO
WEAK WARM ADVECTION. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN STEADILY EARLY THIS
MORNING AND GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...THERE SHOULDN`T BE MUCH
RECOVER IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...IF THAT STRATUS DECK
HANGS AROUND...WE MIGHT SEE MORNING HIGHS TODAY. THE WARM
ADVECTION IN THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUR WAY
LATE TONIGHT AND MIGHT END UP PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW IN
CENTRAL MN AND CENTRAL WI. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION AND MIGHT NOT SNOW AT ALL IN MANY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

WITH LITTLE/NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MAIN
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO WARM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF AND BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF TEMPERATURES HANDLED
THE LAST COUPLE MILD DAYS QUITE WELL...SO WE TRENDED THE FORECAST
THAT WAY - WHICH MEANT GOING WARMER ACROSS THE BOARD. WE KEPT THE
TWIN CITIES METRO 44-46...AS THE AIR MASS DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS
WARM AS THE ONE THAT GAVE KMSP A 53 ON MONDAY - THAT BEING SAID IF
SUNSHINE PREVAILS...WE COULD STILL BE 2-4 DEGREES TOO COOL. THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT DROPS ACROSS MN ON FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP THE PRECIP NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE WILL...HOWEVER...STILL GET THE COLD AIR
IN IT`S WAKE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS BRINGS IN A
1040MB /1030MB OF THE ECMWF/ SUNDAY MORNING. IF THAT
HAPPENS...AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-94 COULD SEE YET ANOTHER SUB
ZERO MORNING - NOT VERY COMMON IN MID MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD NOW...BUT A WARM FRONT IS RIGHT ON ITS HEELS
ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS. THIS WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. AS IT DOES SO...NARROW BAND OF MVFR/VFR CLOUDS
WILL PESTER MPX TERMINALS THROUGH THU MORNING. GFSLAMP
UNDERPLAYING EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS...SO FOLLOWED 925-850 MB RH FROM
THE RAP/NAM/GFS TO BRING MVFR CIGS ACROSS TERMINALS. CHANCES FOR
SNOW WITH THIS WARM FRONT LOOKING GRIM...SO HAVE REMOVED ANY SNOW
MENTION. BEHIND SFC RIDGE...WINDS WILL SETTLE INTO A SE
DIRECTION...VEERING TOWARD THE SW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THU
MORNING...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS.

KMSP...HAVE SEEN A DIURNAL CU FIELD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
EXPECT NOTHING WORSE THAN A SCT COVERAGE WITH THIS. NOT COMPLETELY
SOLD ON MVFR CIGS FOR THU MORNING...BUT MODEL DEPICTION OF 925-850
MB MOISTURE ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE MVFR MENTION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS AFTN/NIGHT. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS N-NE 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NE-SE 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG