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000
FXUS63 KMQT 120243
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
943 PM EST WED DEC 11 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM EST WED DEC 11 2013

LATEST MQT RADAR SHOWS LES BANDS OVER ERN LK SUP HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
N OF GRAND MARAIS. WITH THE LLVL FLOW EXPECTED TO BACK TO MORE WSW
THRU THE NGT...EXPECT THESE BANDS TO STAY N OF ALGER COUNTY. SO CANX
GOING ADVY FOR THAT COUNTY EARLY. THE HEAVIER BANDS ARE STILL
IMPACTING FAR NRN LUCE COUNTY...SO WL KEEP THE WRNG GOING FOR THAT
AREA FOR NOW EVEN THOUGH WIND TRENDS MAY SHIFT THE BANDS N OF THE
COUNTY BEFORE 12Z. MAY CANX THE HEADLINE FOR THIS COUNTY AS WELL IF
PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE. STLT IMAGERY ALSO SUGS THE BANDS HAVE
SHIFTED OUT OF ALL BUT FAR NRN ONTONAGON COUNTY. CALL TO A SPOTTER
JUST N OF ONTONAGON INDICATES ONLY LGT SN IS FALLING THERE...WITH
JUST AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION THRU THE DAY AND INTO THE EVNG.
CONSIDERING THE SAME BACKING FLOW THAT SHOULD CAUSE THE LES TO IMPACT
AREAS MAINLY N OF ONTONAGON COUNTY...OPTED TO CANX THE LES ADVY FOR
THAT COUNTY AS WELL.

PRES FALL CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD INTO THE UPR
MIDWEST WL PASS TO THE SW OF UPR MI TNGT...SO EXPECT WINDS WL BE
LIGHTER THAN ORIGINALLY FCST. HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WL PASS OVER AT LEAST THE SW HALF OF THE CWA AND
PROBABLY LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL AS WELL  SO WIND CHILLS WL
PROBABLY END OF NOT BEING AS HARSH AND MORE MARGINAL FOR ADVY...ARND
-25F INSTEAD OF -30 TO -35. OPTED TO KEEP THE GOING WIND CHILL
HEADLINES DESPITE THE MORE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE STILL HAZARDOUS
COLD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 11 2013

TWO MAIN ITEMS OF FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND THE CONTINUED COLD WEATHER.

LARGE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AT THIS TIME...ALLOWING RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS TO BE
AROUND -24C. AT THE SURFACE...A LAKE INDUCED TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE FAR EASTERN LAKE...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI IS PUSHING A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE
SUPERIOR WATERS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT IN THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE 925/850MB TROUGH THAT
WAS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY SHIFTED EAST OF THE CWA
AND STARTED TO BACK THE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN
CWA. THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
WEST...AS THE BANDS HAVE STARTED TO BECOME WEST-EAST ORIENTATED.
THESE BACKING WINDS ARE ALSO STARTING TO REACH THE CENTRAL LAKE
WHERE THE BANDS ARE NOW MORE IN A WNW DIRECTION AND WINDS AT
STANNARD ROCK HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST. EASTERN ALGER AND NORTHERN
LUCE HAVE SEEN THE MOST SNOW TODAY...WITH REPORTS IN THE 2-8 INCH
RANGE.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
CWA WILL CONTINUE EAST TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BACK WINDS
THIS EVENING...TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION OR EVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THESE BACKING WINDS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A MORE DOMINATE BAND SETTING UP OVER THE
WEST (WITH THE HELP OF COASTAL CONVERGENCE)...LIKELY IN A SIMILAR
LOCATION TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON MONDAY. UNLIKE MONDAY...INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING AND MUCH LOWER DUE TO THE APPROACHING
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND INCREASED SUBSIDENCE. THIS COMPRESSES THE
MOISTURE TO AROUND 5KFT FOR CLOUD TOPS...EVEN THOUGH LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REACH 8-9KFT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...IT DOES TRY TO
PUSH THE BETTER LAKE FORCING INTO THE TOP OF THE DGZ...WHICH MAY AID
SNOWFALL SIZE/RATIOS TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN SEEN OVER THE LAST
DAY. WITH THE AIDED CONVERGENCE DUE TO WINDS BACKING TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WOULD THINK THAT WOULD HELP OFFSET SOME OF THE LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LEAD TO DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR
NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF KEWEENAW COUNTY
TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MOVE NORTH
AND WHERE/WHEN IT WILL STALL TONIGHT. LOCAL HIRES WRF-ARW RUNS
(WHICH HAVE PERFORMED WELL WITH LOCATIONS OVER THE LAST 24HRS) ARE
DIFFERING ON HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL GO...ALONG WITH THE 12Z NAM...SO
OPTED TO SHOW IT REACHING STOPPING AROUND THE HOUGHTON-MOHAWK AREA.
THEREFORE...DID EXPAND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH AND ALSO THE
LES ADVISORY. WAS TEMPTED TO BUMP UP TO A WARNING SINCE THERE WERE
REPORTS OUT WEST WITH 1 IN/HR SNOWFALL IN THE COLDER AIR AND LESS
DGZ INFLUENCE...BUT WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS BEING LOWER DECIDED TO
KEEP AMOUNTS AT HIGH END ADVISORY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS THIS EVENING...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BORDERLINE
WARNING AMOUNTS WHERE THAT BAND SETS UP. HEADING INTO
THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS DOES PUSH MORE OF THE
CLOUD INTO THE DGZ...WHICH COULD AID SNOWFALL RATIOS EVEN WITH THE
CONTINUED LIMITED CLOUD DEPTH (INVERSION STAYS THE SAME). WINDS LOOK
TO VEER TO MORE OF A WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH
AGAIN...SO WOULD EXPECT LESS CONVERGENCE AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND THE STRONG CONVERGENCE BAND TO SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTH. AS FOR THE OTHER ADVISORIES...ENDED GOGEBIC/BARAGA AND SRN
HOUGHTON EARLY AND ALSO TRENDED ONTONAGON TO AN EARLIER END TIME
DUE THE STRONGEST BAND JUST BRUSHING THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THAT
COUNTY.

OVER THE EAST...THE BACKING WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO PUSH
THE STRONGER BANDS NORTHEAST AND WOULD EXPECT THAT STEADY PUSH
TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THIS STEADY PUSH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
STEADY/WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY IN THE 2-5IN RANGE.
TIMING OF THE ADVISORY FOR ALGER AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT LOOKS GOOD AND
MAY BE ABLE TO END THE LUCE WARNING A COUPLE HOURS EARLY OVERNIGHT.
AFTER THESE BANDS PUSH NORTHEAST...WOULD EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT.
THE WESTERLY (OR EVEN SLIGHTLY WSW) FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...BEFORE THE TROUGH DROPS TO THE SOUTH AND WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MOVE THE BANDS BACK
ONSHORE. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN SEEN TODAY
(RADAR INDICATED OF 10-11KFT THIS AFTN DECREASING TO 6-7KFT LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON). EVEN SO...ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE NEXT TROUGH COULD BE ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A QUICK COUPLE OF
INCHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER LUCE COUNTY.

AS FOR THE COLD TEMPERATURES...ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO LOWS
TONIGHT AND WINDS. LOWS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TRYING TO SLIDE IN AND THE MODELS SHOWING
WINDS STRUGGLING TO DECOUPLE. BASED OFF INTERIOR LOCATIONS
LAST NIGHT FALLING TO 4-7KTS...THINK THAT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY A LITTLE LOWER WITH THE HELP OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING IN. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE WELL BELOW
ZERO WITH THE COLDEST VALUES CONTINUING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND
CENTRAL (LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO). WIND CHILL ADVISORY LOOKS
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AFTER THE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND WILL LEAVE THAT
AS IS. ONE OTHER ITEM TO NOTE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. MAIN
INFLUENCE WILL BE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
MOST OF THOSE CLOUDS WILL STAY SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA TONIGHT BUT MAY
STREAM OVER DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THESE MID CLOUDS...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING SLIGHTLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EST WED DEC 11 2013

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN OVERALL COLD PATTERN THRU THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT DEEP EXPANSIVE
POLAR VORTEX CENTERED AROUND HUDSON BAY WEAKENING AND RETREATING N
LATE THIS WEEK THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE COLD WILL
EASE SOME. A VAST SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS CANADA...SO
ANY SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG IN THE RELAXING NW FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
ABLE TO BRING A SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO THE UPPER LAKES. OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PROGRESSIVELY
SLOWER TO BRING WARMING INTO THE UPPER LAKES FOR THIS REASON. LATER
DOWN THE ROAD NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS OF A TEMPORARY SHIFT
IN THE PATTERN TOWARD A DEEPENING TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS AND
DOWNSTREAM BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS/WRN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
OFFER THE BEST CHANCE OF A WARMUP THAT WOULD OCCUR AROUND THE MIDDLE
NEXT WEEK. HOW MUCH WARMING OCCURS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMPLITUDE AND
LONGITUDE OF THE TROF/RIDGE PATTERN. WHATEVER HAPPENS...ANY WARMING
WILL ONLY BE BRIEF AS LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD
REINTENSIFYING ARCTIC AIR ACROSS WRN/NRN CANADA DUMPING BACK INTO
THE AREA SOMETIME AROUND THE WEEKEND BEFORE CHRISTMAS OR EARLY
CHRISTMAS WEEK. OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS AFFECTED BY LES...DON`T EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN SOME -SN AT TIMES DURING THE LONG TERM. POSSIBLE
BRIEF PATTERN CHANGE LATER NEXT WEEK COULD OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOMETHING MORE SUBSTANTIAL IN TERMS OF PCPN.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL SEND
A SFC TROF S THRU THE UPPER LAKES...CAUSING WINDS TO VEER NW OR N BY
FRI MORNING. AS A RESULT...ONGOING WRLY FLOW LES LATE THU AFTN WILL
SPREAD S...AFFECTING MOST IF NOT ALL OF NRN UPPER MI BY FRI MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEEP LAYER FORCING...PERIOD
OF DEEPER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG TROF SHOULD YIELD
A SHORT PERIOD OF MDT SNOW AND POSSIBLY BRIEF HVY SNOW AS TROF
SWEEPS S THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING. BEHIND TROF...INVERSION SETTLES
TO AROUND 5-6KFT FRI. LARGER SCALE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BECOMES MORE
ANTICYCLONIC FRI. ON THE OTHER HAND...DIMINISHING BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE. IN FACT...NAM INDICATES
WINDS VEERING TO ESE OFF ERN UPPER MI DURING THE DAY FRI...
RESULTING IN A ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE EXTENDING ACROSS FAR SE
LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE MARQUETTE AREA. WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
OTHERWISE...DGZ WILL BEGIN TO BECOME BETTER LOCATED WITHIN THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER AND UPWARD MOTION ZONE...LEADING TO HIGHER SNOW TO
WATER RATIOS. SO...SHOULD BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP SOME DECENT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FRI WHERE LES IS MOST PERISTENT (NCNTRL UPPER MI). OUT
W DURING THE DAY...WINDS MAY END UP VEERING ENOUGH TO PUSH MOST OF
THE LES OFFSHORE OF WRN UPPER MI...EXCEPT FOR THE KEWEENAW.

WINDS CONTINUE VEERING TO THE E THEN SE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING AS SFC
HIGH PRES CENTER PASSES JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LES THAT WILL BE
OCCURRING MAINLY INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI THU AFTN WILL THEN SLOWLY
SHIFT...CROSSING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA FOR A TIME LATER FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING. DGZ WILL STILL BE WELL CENTERED IN THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER...SO A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. IF WINDS VEER
ENOUGH OVER NRN LAKE MI...SOME LIGHT LES MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
MENOMINEE COUNTY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO NEXT CLIPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THRU THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT/SUN. -SN ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE SHOULD
SPREAD INTO THE AREA SAT AFTN/EVENING...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A QUICK PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MI IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL ADVY EVENT. A VERY BRIEF SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWING SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A SHORT DURATION
BOUT OF MDT TO POSSIBLY HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW FOR NORTHWEST AND
NORTHEAST UPPER MI LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS WIND SHIFTS NW. AS
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE N OR NE WITH SFC HIGH PRES PASSING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO...LIGHTER LES WILL AGAIN SHIFT TO AFFECT MORE OF NRN
UPPER MI SUN AFTN/EVENING.

FCST IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO MON/TUE AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE WNW FLOW.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY FROM TODAYS MODEL RUNS AND PREVIOUS RUNS...A
SIMPLE CONSENSUS WILL BE UTILIZED MON/TUE. DEPENDING ON
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE WAVES...THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD -SN AS WELL AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT DEPENDING ON WIND
DIRECTION.

HIGH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WED AS ECMWF SHOWS THE POSSIBLE MID WEEK
WARMUP ALLUDED TO EARLIER...WHILE THE GFS DUMPS ARCTIC AIR BACK INTO
THE AREA. AT 00Z THU...850MB TEMPS RANGE FROM ROUGHLY AROUND -2C
WITH THE ECWMF TO -20C WITH THE GFS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM EST WED DEC 11 2013

CMX...AS THE LLVL FLOW BACKS TOWARD SW TNGT WITH PASSAGE OF SFC HI
PRES TO THE S...EXPECT THE HEAVIER SHSN TO SHIFT TO THE N OF THIS
LOCATION. SO TREND TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNGT STILL SEEMS ON
TRACK. BUT AS THE WINDS VEER AGAIN MORE TO THE WNW AND TURN GUSTY
ON THU...MORE SHSN/BLSN WL RETURN ALONG WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.

FOR KSAW/KIWD...A WSW LLVL FLOW OF DRY UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WL
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU TNGT. AS THE FLOW VEERS MORE TO THE
WNW ON THU MRNG...SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WL LIKELY RETURN TO IWD. BUT
THE DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THIS FLOW INTO SAW SHOULD RESULT IN
PERSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS THERE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 11 2013

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30KTS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BRUSHES THE AREA. A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL SHIFT WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (THIS TIME FROM CENTRAL CANADA) NOSES
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
WINDS BELOW 20KTS. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF A LOW MOVING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST...COULD SEE A INCREASE IN
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY TO 25-30KTS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER HIGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ002-004-005-009>013-084.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST /5 AM CST/ THURSDAY
     FOR LSZ162-240>245-248>251-266.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     LSZ263>265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF