Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 270645
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
245 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017

No major weather impacts expected in the short-term portion of the
forecast.

Tonight: A weak cold front/surface trough will slide across the west
half of the U.P. this evening and weaken further as it shifts across
the rest of the area tonight. The main focus for any rain showers
will be along and just ahead of the front, especially in the
evening. There may be just enough elevated instability to give a few
rumbls of thunder. Generally, any shower and thunderstorm activity
will diminish in both coverage and intensity as daytime heating
diminishes and the weak front begins to wash out. Drier mid-level
air will move in on the back side of the front, which may allow for
some fog development tonight in areas that receive light rain and
where clouds decrease.

Saturday: A quick moving upper-level 500mb ridge will slide across
the U.P. through early afternoon before the ridge axis slides east
of the area by mid afternoon. This will likely give sunny to partly
sunny skies across the area through much of the morning  hours. Once
the ridge slides to the east of the area, moisture will begin to
flow into the U.P. once again as broad troughing slides into the
area from the west. This broad troughing is associated with a broad
closed upper low and surface low over Manitoba. Models are showing a
weak shortwave sliding into the are during the mid to late afternoon
hours, which may end up giving some scattered rain showers over the
south central U.P. and portions of the eastern U.P.; however, the
rain showers should remain light. High temperatures will remain
near to slightly above normal with highs running in the upper 60s
to around 70 for most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

Nam shows a trough over the central U.S. with a closed low east of
Lake Winnipeg and ridges on both coasts and also the Gulf Coast. The
closed low drops southeast and keeps upper troughing in the area
through 12z Tue. 850-500 mb q-vector convergence and deeper moisture
remains over the area from Sun into Mon night. Overall, did not make
too many changes to the going forecast.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough across the
central and eastern U.S. with a ridge on the western U.S. 12z Tue.
This upper pattern remains the same 12z Wed. The ridge moves into
the Rockies with troughing remaining in the ern U.S. and troughing
on the west coast 12z Thu which remains into Fri. Temperatures will
remain below normal through the forecast period and the weather
will generally stay showery under the upper trough.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 121 AM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

VFR conditions will likely prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this fcst
period. However, since some rainfall occurred at KSAW during the
evening, it`s possible fog could develop overnight, especially if
clouds clear out. Confidence is low for the fog to develop, so no
mention was included in this fcst. Today, dissipating sfc trof
reaching central Upper MI combined with lake breeze development
should result in some shra developing around KSAW in the aftn. Not
out of the question that a rumble of thunder could occur as well.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 345 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017

Through the weekend, winds of 10 to 20 knots are expected across
Lake Superior. Early next week, winds will increase to around 20
knots as an area of low pressure is progged to dig across portions
of the Upper Great Lakes.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...KEC



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