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000
FXUS63 KMQT 131111
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
711 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

A 1021MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN HAS LED TO A CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT OVER THE AREA. 3AM
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST VALUE SEEN SO FAR OF -20F AT DOE LAKE. THIS
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
THE AREA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THIS CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES HAS BEEN PRODUCING MID
CLOUDS OVER NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND EASTERN MINNESOTA. SOME OF
THESE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW THAT HAS
DEVELOPED...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO 10F AT KIWD (355AM) FROM THE
EARLIER LOW OF -4F. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY.

BEST 850-700/700-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF
UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY...BUT THERE IS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOME POCKETS OF MOISTURE ON THE MODELS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM AT OBS AND CANADIAN RADAR...THERE IS SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THUNDER BAY...BUT THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BETTER FORCING THAT WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. WILL COVER THAT AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCES (INCLUDING
THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW)...WHICH MATCHES SOME OF THE AREAS INDICATED
BY THE MODELS TO RECEIVE A HUNDREDTH OF QPF. OTHERWISE...WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANCE
OF FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WHEN THE BEST FORCING THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. AS FOR TIMING...EXPECT THE BEST FORCING OVER THE WEST
THIRD DURING THE MORNING...THE CENTRAL AROUND MID DAY...AND EAST IN
THE AFTERNOON.

WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BEHIND THE
INITIAL WAVE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND THAT WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER THE WEST.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF LOWER CLOUDS GETTING HUNG UP UNDER THE
STRENGTHENING INVERSION AROUND 900MB...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EAST. NOT REALLY SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
UPSTREAM (NAM/GFS SHOW IT ORIGINATING IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA) SO WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NAM/S LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BIAS. 925MB MOISTURE FROM THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z
GEM-REGIONAL IS MUCH LOWER UNTIL AIDED FROM MOISTENING OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. KEPT THE MORE PESSIMISTIC TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT DID LEAN TOWARDS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOWARDS
IRONWOOD IN THE AFTERNOON. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND IF NOTHING
DEVELOPS...CLOUD COVER WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED OVER THE WEST HALF
OF THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL AND LATER EXIT
OF THE MID CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER IN THE
CENTRAL...BUT THEY SHOULD STILL RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 30S BY LATE
AFTERNOON. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE EAST...WHERE THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OFF THE ABUNDANT ICE COVER ON NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP
TEMPS COOLER.

FINALLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE SHOWING 850MB WAA
REALLY INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THERE...BUT AT THE SAME
TIME DRYING ALOFT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS THOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND LIKELY AIDED BY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
SINCE 900MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THINK THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS THERE. THIS
EVENING THE WAA REALLY TAKES HOLD (LOW LEVEL TEMPS WARMING TO -3C)
AND ANY SNOW WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TOWARDS A FREEZING DRIZZLE
SCENARIO WITH THE CLOUD LAYER WARMING OUT OF THE FAVORED ICE CRYSTAL
TEMPS. WITH THAT EXPECTED WARMING SHOWN ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS...HAVE TRANSITIONED THE -SN TO -FZDZ DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND CONTINUED IT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AWAY FROM THE EAST...THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE QUIET THIS
EVENING AND GENERALLY DRY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE
AREA. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA (GENERALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN) BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 994MB LOW TRACKING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z...WOULD EXPECT THE OCCLUDED FRONT TO HAVE MOVED
THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY THAT TIME. THIS SHIFTS WINDS
A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW SINCE A LOT OF IT WILL
DEPEND ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR IT
WOULD BE IN THE WESTERLY WIND UPSLOPE LOCATIONS. SINCE LOW LEVEL
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE SLOWLY COOLING THROUGH THE NIGHT (SURFACE TEMPS
ARE FAIRLY STEADY IN THE MID 30S)...THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE
CLOUD IS A CONCERN. THEREFORE...HAVE WENT WITH A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIP (SN/RA AND DZ/FZDZ DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMP) THROUGH 12Z
BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. DUE TO THE WARM AIR MOVING IN AHEAD
OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT...THE EAST/S LOWS WILL BE AT 00Z AND THEN
STEADILY RISING TOWARDS FREEZING. THE WEST WILL SEE STEADY TEMPS
THAT WILL FALL GENERALLY AFTER 10Z AND THEIR LOWS WILL BE AROUND
DAYBREAK. FOLLOWED RAW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR A START WITH LOWS DUE TO
THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AIDING A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY RIDGING OVER
WRN NOAM AND THE RESULTING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NERN CONUS...KEEPING TEMPS BELOW MAINLY BELOW NORMAL. A CLIPPER
SHORTWAVE AND LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A WARMUP
FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PCPN BUT WILL DRAG MUCH COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND.

FRI...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE SFC LOW
AT 12Z/FRI OVER NE LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH MODERATE 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH UPPER
MI IN THE MORNING...THE STRONGER LIFT WITH THE FRONAL SYSTEM AHEAD
OR THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SIGNFICANT PCPN TO THE EAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL CONV ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING THROUGH
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND W UPPER MI BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW COMBINED
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT INCREASING PCPN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THROUGH TEMPS MAY CLIMB TO NEAR 40...WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW. WITH THE RELATIVELY MILD
CONDITIONS...QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH SHOULD ONLY
GIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...CAA WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS FROM AROUND -10C AT
00Z/SAT TO NEAR -18C BY 12Z/SAT. THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR
SNOW SHOWERS... AIDED BY HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS SOME GAPS IN THE
ICE COVER AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WILL BE BETWEEN
06Z-15Z WHEN THE GREATER 850-700 MB MOISTURE AND IS PRESENT. THE
SNOW CHANCES OVER THE WEST SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS WINDS
VEER TO THE NE. THE -SHSN MAY PERSIST OVER N CNTRL UPPER MI BUT BY LATE
MORNING STRONG DRYING MOVES IN AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ACYC.
ANY SNOW SHOWERS STILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER TEENS NORTH BUT MAY CLIMB TO THE MID 20S
SOUTH.

SAT NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SINK INTO
NW WI BY 12Z/SUN. WITH VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...MAINTAINED FCST LOW THAT ARE WELL BELOW GUIDANCE OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST. LOWS COULD DROP TO NEAR -20F OR EVEN COLDER. OVER
THE EAST...THE LOW LEVEL NRLY FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF AS FAR.

SUN-TUE...AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION SUN...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FCST CONFIDENCE
IS MUCH LOWER BY MON INTO TUE GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND LACK OF
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHRTWV...SFC LOW AND
WAA PCPN SHIELD MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER
MS VALLEY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM IN THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES IS LEADING TO GRADUAL LOWERING OF THE VFR CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THIS LOWERING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
KCMX/KSAW EVENTUALLY SEEING HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES AS THE MAIN FORCING SLIDES OVER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ALOFT...THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN. SOME OF
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME LOW CLOUDS BECOMING TRAPPED BELOW
THE INCREASING INVERSION ALOFT...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MVFR CEILINGS
PERSISTING THROUGH PART OF THE EVENING. HAVE SEEN SOME LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...BUT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THAT
LAYER WOULD KEEP THEM NORTH OF THE SITES. HAVEN/T SEEN MUCH
DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN YET...AS THAT WOULD BE
THE AREA THAT WOULD AFFECT THE U.P. SINCE THE CONSENSUS IN THE
MODELS IS FOR IT TO OCCUR...WILL INCLUDE IT FOR KSAW/KCMX BUT NOT
KIWD DUE TO DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS.

TONIGHT...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND
SWEEP AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE WESTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WILL LEAD TO MVFR
CEILINGS AND -SN/DZ FOR KIWD/KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

A DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO PRODUCE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY UP TO 20KTS. AS THE
LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE LOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
VEERING TO THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME...THE WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25KTS. A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF