Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 271135
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
635 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THEN STALL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEK.
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE E OF THE AREA TODAY
WITH A DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL AIDE IN THE TRANSPORT OF
WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND 6C
BY EVENING. GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER A PATCH OF
HIGH CLOUDS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGHS OF LOWER TO
MID 50S ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SW WILL DAMPEN AS IT MOVES E TODAY ALTHOUGH
REMNANT ENERGY WILL TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...THEN CONTINUE EWD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT
AND SUN. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUN THEN STALLS S OF LONG ISLAND WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING
ALONG IT SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH WITH
CHC SHOWERS SUN AS IT MOVES ACROSS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OF
LOW PRES THAT RIDES ALONG THE FRONT TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. HOWEVER...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...P-TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF ARE EXPECTED. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
ON MON...THEN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL...IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
MIDWEEK AND THEN A TREND TOWARD MORE OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...ONE BIG FEATURE TO NOTE IS THE VERY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S ON MON WITH A MAGNITUDE OF
AT LEAST 1050 MB. THIS WILL TRANSLATE SEWD AND THE VERY COLD AIRMASS
WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THE TIME IT GETS ACROSS THE
COUNTRY...HOWEVER WINTERLIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEK AS
SHORTWAVES ORIGINATING FROM WESTERN CANADA TRANSPORTS SOME OF THIS
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

GFS...GEFS AND SREF ENS MEMBERS ARE INDICATING THAT PORTIONS OF
NYC AND LONG ISLAND COULD BE BRUSHED BY SOME LIGHT PCPN...WHICH
WOULD FALL AS SNOW...LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS ANOTHER WAVE
PASSES TO THE S. HAVE ADDED SCHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS THEREAFTER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
LIGHT WSW SFC FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT...BACKING TO S/SW THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

CLOUDS LOWER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOW PROB FOR MVFR
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT KSWF IN -SHRA.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUNDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH CHC -SHRA. -SHSN POSSIBLE AT KSWF SUN
NIGHT.
.MON-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WINDS
APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA...BUT MARGINAL 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATER SUN THROUGH MON...WITH NEXT CHANCE OF
MARGINAL SCA CONDS TUE/TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL SOUTH
OF THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






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