Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 232323

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
723 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

A weak cold front will be followed by high pressure through Sunday.
A warm front will move through Monday morning. A weak cold front
approaches the area Monday and crosses Monday night. High pressure
returns for Tuesday and Wednesday. A series of waves of low
pressure pass through the region Thursday and Friday, with a cold
front passing through Friday night.


Storms in Connecticut have diminished and moved out of the area
early this evening.

A high risk for Rip Currents along the Atlantic Ocean beaches in
Suffolk County NY remains in effect until 8 pm this evening.

Scattered TSTMs moving southeast ahead of an approaching cold
front from Northern New England will weaken and dissipate before
reaching the local area. Although not in the updated forecast, an
isolated thunderstorm is possible across southeastern CT between 8
pm and 11 pm.


With the passage of the cold front, day time high temperatures are
forecast around 6 to 8 degrees cooler than this afternoon. With dew
point temperatures forecast mainly 55-60 degrees, heat index values
are forecast to remain below 95 degrees. Therefore, a heat advisory
will not be issued for Sunday.

Morning light NW winds will be replaced with afternoon sea breezes,
the strongest in the NY bight with S winds 10-15 kt aft 19z/3 pm.

For Sunday night, as high pressure moves offshore, a warm front will
approach from the SW. Low lvl warm air advection will cause an
increase in clouds along with some patchy fog in suburban and rural


By the start of the extended period an upper ridge will be moving
off the northeast coast as a shortwave moves through the nearly
zonal flow, passing through the Great Lakes Monday into Monday
night. An associated weak surface low moves through the Great Lakes
with a cold front passing through Monday night. Temperatures and
dewpoints will be increasing Monday as the region comes under the
influence of a hot and humid airmass as a warm front passes Monday
morning. With the shortwave passing showers and thunderstorms will
be possible early Monday. The area destabilizes and by the afternoon
CAPE increases to around 1000 J/KG and lifted indices will be around
-3. There is a potential for heavy rain and gusty winds with the
convection Monday afternoon and will include in the forecast.
Depending on timing and the possibility of earlier convection
destabilization may become limited.
Regardless, with the hot and humid conditions, heat indices will be
near 105 by the afternoon for most of northeastern New Jersey and
into NYC. So an excessive heat watch has been posted.

Tuesday and Wednesday will remain warm however drier air moves in
behind the cold front. With the shortwave not very deep and passing
to the north, the cold front does not moves too far south and
becomes nearly stationary south of Long Island. Waves of low
pressure are forecast to move along this boundary Thursday and
Friday with a back door cold front pushing through as high pressure
builds to the north. Timing if the backdoor cold front is uncertain
and may not moves through until Saturday. However, at this time will
have Saturday dry.


A weak cold front moves through the region tonight. High pressure
builds into the region on Sunday. VFR conditions expected through
the TAF period.

W/WNW flow today...with gusts 20-25KT this afternoon. Winds
generally left of 310 mag for NYC/NJ metro terminals...but could
waver just to the right in the afternoon for KLGA. Coastal sea
breeze development is not expected. Winds and gusts diminish in
the evening...with light nw winds tonight.

On Sunday, winds start off from the North-Northwest, then
gradually become westerly and eventually southwest to southerly at
the coastal locations as afternoon seabreezes develop. winds
speeds will be between 10-15kt.

.Sun afternoon into SUN NGT...VFR. Afternoon sea breezes for
coastal terminals.
.MON...Mainly VFR, except MVFR or lower possible in scattered
late day/evening thunderstorms.
.TUE and WED...VFR.
.THU...Mainly VFR, except MVFR or lower possible in scattered
late day/evening thunderstorms.


Winds and gusts have been lower than forecast the latest several
hours and adjusted accordingly.

Wind speeds and sea heights are forecast to remain below Small
Craft Advisory levels through Sunday night.

Afternoon sea breezes likely on Sunday, and have to monitor
potential for locally strong onshore flow from Sandy Hook to Fire
Island Inlet Sunday afternoon.

With a weak pressure gradient force across the forecast waters
Monday through Thursday, winds and seas are expected to remain below
small craft advisory levels. A cold front is forecast to pass
through the waters Monday night with thunderstorms possible.
The front will remain south of the waters with waves of low pressure
moving along the front Thursday into Friday. A backdoor front moves
through Friday night.


No rain is forecast through Sunday night.

There is the potential for 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rainfall, with locally
up to one inch, in showers and thunderstorms Monday and Monday night.

Dry weather returns for Tuesday and Wednesday. Then there is the
potential for additional showers and thunderstorms, mainly during
the afternoons and evenings Thursday and Friday.


NY...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday
     afternoon for NYZ072>075-176-178.
     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080-
NJ...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday
     afternoon for NJZ004-006-103>108.


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