Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 280210
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1010 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
THE WAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL DOTTING THE AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH. MINIMAL INSTABILITY STILL OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NJ COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WITH A WEAK
VORT MAX PASSING THROUGH EASTERN PA/NJ OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY
PUSH INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING
IN COOLER...DRIER AIR SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT.

TEMPS SLOW TO TAPER OFF WITH THE COOLER AIR TAKING ITS TIME TO
MOVE IN SO HAVE UPPED THE TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TO REFLECT LATEST
OBS. HOWEVER...STILL ANTICIPATING FORECASTED LOWS TO OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT SO WILL MAINTAIN THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NW FLOW WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLR SKIES. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT CU
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY TO BE WARMEST
ALONG THE S COAST DUE TO THE DEEPER MIXING ON NW FLOW. THE MET
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSEST TO THIS SCENARIO. DIURNAL SPREAD OF CLOSE TO
30 DEGREES POSSIBLE THU NGT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS WHERE
DECOUPLING OCCURS.

A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES
LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...WHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NYC
NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH...
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. WHILE MOST OF
THE RAIN HAS ENDED...A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AFTER
06Z.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND AROUND 10 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 10 KT. GUSTS DEVELOP UP TO
20 KT DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
REMAINING ABV 5 FT THRU AT LEAST THU NGT. PEAK SEAS OF AROUND 8 FT
EXPECTED THU MRNG...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AROUND AREA
INLETS. OTHERWISE...A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT LATE TNGT THRU THU BEHIND THE CDFNT ON THE OCEAN. MAX
WINDS TO 20 KT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ATTM.

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS FALL BACK TO BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
FORECASTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT CONVECTION ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD 4 FT WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED DURING THE DAY TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET WORSE THRU
THU MRNG...BEFORE THE SWELL RETREATS INTO THE N ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT...A HIGH SURF ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THU. ALTHOUGH
WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BLW THE 7 FT HIGH SURF CRITERIA INTO
PERHAPS THE EVE...DANGEROUS RIPS WILL CONTINUE. BASED ON THE
OFFSHORE SWELL...THE HIGHEST WAVES SHOULD ARRIVE THU MRNG. THE THU
MRNG HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO PRESENT THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION AND WASH-OVERS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JMC/SEARS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...BC/MET
MARINE...JMC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







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