Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 201856
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
256 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STILL SEEING BKN STRATOCU OVER MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE ARE
SOME SIGNS IT COULD THIN OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OUT OVER THE OCEAN
SHOULD START STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH TOWARD EVENING...AND AS A
SHOT OF LOW-MID LEVEL WAA AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASS
ACROSS...THERE SHOULD BE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS LATE THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT
BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS. NOT EXACTLY SURE WHERE FOCUS OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE...AS NAM/GFS WERE WERE TOO FAR WEST WITH
EXTENT OF ONGOING PRECIP OFF THE DELMARVA...WHILE THE EARLIER
SREF/ECMWF HANDLED THINGS A LITTLE BETTER THERE INITIALLY BUT
STILL FCST SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY IN/NEAR NYC METRO TONIGHT
INSTEAD OF A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. INSTABILITY INCREASES ALOFT LATE
BUT MOSTLY AFTER DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT HAVE MOVED EAST..
SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN WAA
TAKING PLACE...WITH NEAR 70 AT LGA...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND AROUND 60 WELL INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BECOME HIGH WITH
STRENGTHENING SE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SCT SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND MAINLY IN THE AM...WITH ISOLD THUNDER
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AS A WEAK NON-
TROPICAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SE OF LONG ISLAND.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THIS LOW SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ON
ITS EASTERN FLANK AND WELL OFFSHORE...SO DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY
RAINFALL ATTM. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON VIA
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...WHICH ALONG WITH WAA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER
INTERIOR ELEVATIONS.

PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
CHANCE POP NW OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. AFTER FROPA
EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING AT LEAST 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NO RAIN IS FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME AS DRYING CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES TO EAST OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR UNTIL EARLY EVENING. BEST CHANCE MVFR TO GET STARTED IS
KISP...AND COULD SEE CEILINGS DOWN AROUND 3000-3500 THROUGH 19-20Z
AT KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KSWF.

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE
RESTRICTED IFR TO EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WHERE APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF -SHRA AND/OR DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL BUT KSWF BY AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY.

SSE FLOW AROUND 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT ALL BUT
KSWF...WHERE WINDS MORE SW-SSW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AT ALL BUT KSWF/KJFK/KHPN...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20
KT POSSIBLE AT THESE LOCATIONS.

WINDS BACK TO THE SE-ESE AT UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT...WITH INLAND
TERMINALS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS CONTINUE AS SUCH
SUNDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR...WITH ISOLD -SHRA WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR FAR EASTERN TERMINALS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MAY BE A CLOSE CALL FOR SCA CONDS TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN AS SE FLOW
PERSISTS AND GETS A LITTLE STRONGER. RIGHT NOW THINK WINDS AND
SEAS WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA
CONDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO
THE SE ARRIVE.

SCA CONDS MAY CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN INTO MON NIGHT. THEN WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON TUE. THEN INCREASING E
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY WED AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW MOVES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA
SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





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