Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 030307 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1105 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THEN BUILDS EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT OVER CROSSING NYC METRO WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN
LI/SE CT BTWN 2 TO 4 AM...WHILE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQ
OF THE UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE PASS MAINLY NW OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME.

CONVECTION HAS SPLIT TO THE NORTH (BETTER LIFT/SHEAR) AND TO THE
SOUTH (BETTER INSTABILITY) OF THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS LI/CT STILL A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS LI AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. LOW CHANCE
OF A TSTM.

NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH
LAGGING CAA AND MIXED LOW-LEVELS IN NW FLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE SUBURBS...TO LOWER 70S NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WARM...BUT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE FEATURED ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. NW WINDS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS FALLING OFF
INTO THE 50S.

LOWS WED NIGHT WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC
BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO RESIDUAL ONSHORE SWELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOME
WEAK RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO SLOW THE
FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S.
SOME LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY .

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...LEADING TO DIFFERENCES IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME
THOUGH...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY...ENDING SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE
70S...WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE WELL IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PASSING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. VFR
EXPECTED WITH A S-SW FLOW AROUND 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-25
KT RIGHT AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WIND BECOMES MORE
W-NW LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH NEARLY THE SAME
SUSTAINED SPEEDS. W-NW FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SOME BACKING OF FLOW TO W-SW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

AMENDMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WINDS. SEA
BREEZE MAY BE POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY.
FORECAST HAS A GENERAL SW FLOW AT KJFK WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW AT
OTHER SOUTHERN COASTAL TERMINALS. A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.WED NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...SUB-VFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS JUST AHEAD OF AND NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT INTO WED WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RUN ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH ON
THE OCEAN...KEEPING SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW











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