Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 290555
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
155 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TRACKS EAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SNOW INTENSITY SLOWLY WEAKENING AS UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS BEGIN
TO MOVE OFF THE COAST. PERSISTENT NARROW BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW
REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...ONE ACROSS THE OFFICE. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...AND BUILDING SLOWLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND...TO THE MID 20S
AT THE COAST. THIS IS WELL BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SUNNY SKIES WITH ANOTHER DAY WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. PREFERRED TO STAY JUST ABOVE MOS.

A RETURN FLOW SETS UP BY EVENING AND STRENGTHENS SUN NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AT
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SEND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
ON MONDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY. SOME SURFACE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN AS THE WARM FRONT
NEARS AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS EARLY MONDAY.
INLAND...NORTHWEST...LIKELY STARTS AS SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHILE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW
AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE AT THE
START. AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO ALL
LIQUID.

LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL AND RISING
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF NYC AND LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY.
HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY
SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY.

GENERALLY VFR NYC METRO AND WEST...WITH MVFR OR IFR EAST OF NYC
IN SNOW. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...SNOW COVERAGE SHOULD
SHRINK...WITH EASTERN TERMINALS LOSING THE SNOW LAST.

SKIES CLEAR THIS MORNING...WITH FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

GUSTY NW WINDS...MAINLY TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC...CONTINUE
MOST OF THE NIGHT. SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO AS
HIGH AS 25 KTS.

GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT SUNDAY MORNING...AND NW WINDS
EVENTUALLY SHIFT BRIEFLY TO THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
.MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN ON THE BACKSIDE
OF LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE
ON SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...BUT BUILD TO
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE ADDITIONAL QPF EXPECTED...EXCEPT ANOTHER TENTH ACROSS
EASTERN LI AND SE CT. PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ079-081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...FIG/MET
AVIATION...BC/PW
MARINE...FIG/DW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DW


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