Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 050748
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
348 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE REGION AND
MAINTAINS A SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION. E/NE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
VEERING SE THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY STRATUS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX OUT...WITH ONLY FEW-SCT AFT CU. LIMITED MIXING SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

THE 4-6 FT ENE WAVE DIRECTION THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
MORE OF A LONGSHORE SWEEP...AND GENERALLY A MODERATE RIP CURRENT
RISK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOCALIZED HIGH RIP RISK ON EAST SIDE
OF GROINS...JETTIES AND PIERS INTERACTING WITH THE LONGSHORE
SWEEP. WIND AND WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO VEER A BIT MORE TO THE
E/ESE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ALSO BE SUBSIDING. THESE WIND
WAVES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A 3 TO 4 FT SURF AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING REMAIN OVERHEAD...WITH CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SLIDING ESE OF THE REGION.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS AND CANADIAN AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPS ACROSS RURAL AREAS TO FALL INTO THE 50S. ELSEWHERE
GENERALLY 60S.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY EXPECTED. A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BEGIN MODERATING. LIMITED MIXING SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE THE LOWER 80S TO 85. AFTERNOON COASTAL SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NE UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY FLATTENING
THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT REGION CONTINUING TO BE UNDER CONTROL OF BROAD
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING. THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTION OF A
BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SE US...PART OF WHICH MAY SHEAR NE
EARLY THIS WEEK. PREDICTABILITY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE IS
LOW. OTHERWISE...GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING
WEAKENING ENOUGH DURING MID TO LATE WEEK TO ALLOW FOR MORE ACTIVE
WESTERLIES TO BEGIN IMPINGING ON THE NE. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGIES CONTINUE TO BE IN QUESTION.

DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY MERGES
WITH BERMUDA HIGH. HIGHS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. GENERALLY UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S...WITH HEAT INDICES AT THIS POINT LOOKING JUST NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TEMPS.

IF RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AS DEPICTED...ALLOWING FOR MORE ACTIVE
WESTERLIES TO WORK TOWARDS THE REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE
WEEK...THIS WOULD ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE
REGION...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR ON THE
DETAILS...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME AGREEMENT ON A FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE WED OR THU...THEN LINGERING NEAR THE
REGION...UNTIL IT CAN BE PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION BY STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE ON DAILY DETAILS IN
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS LOW AT THIS POINT...BUT POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME WETTING RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY.

VFR...EXCEPT TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT SOME TERMINALS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. NE WINDS 10KT OR LESS VEERS SE AROUND
10KT WITH SEA BREEZES EARLY AFTN. WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY DUE TO SEAS. SOME GUSTS TO 25KT ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY ON THIS MORNING...BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SUB SCA CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. A GUST OR TWO 20-25KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUES/WEDS AFTERNOONS/EARLY EVENINGS WEST OF POINT LOOKOUT
WITH SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

KBDI VALUES BETWEEN 500 AND 700 AND 1 HR FUELS MOISTURE OF 5 TO 8
PERCENT ARE EXPECTED TODAY. E/NE WIND GUSTS INTO THE TEENS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING...DECREASING AND BECOMING SE THIS AFTERNOON.
RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP/WORSEN REGION WIDE. NORTHEASTERN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...NV


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