Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 040536
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
136 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. CLOUDY AND DAMP WEATHER WILL PERSIST THRU
FRI...THEN BEGIN TO EASE ON SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND
OF SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK.

ALOFT...SHORTWAVE AROUND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION DIGS
SOUTHWARD. WEAK EMBEDDED VORTS WILL PASS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST...WITH NOT MUCH NOTED IN 12Z MODEL SUITE TO PROVIDE LIFT.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH.

GENERALLY EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AROUND. LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
BREAKS IN CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CT...CLOSER TO RIDGING.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. DO NOT SEE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO
WARRANT MORE THAN LOWER COVERAGE TO PRECIP AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS REMAIN CHILLY TONIGHT...IN THE 40S. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
DISPARITY IN LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT. MODEL/MOS BLEND USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANALYSIS OF 12Z MODEL SUITE INDICATES SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTHWARD...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF THIS TIME FRAME. THIS TROUGH
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND HEADS OUT WAY BY AFTERNOON/EVENING PER
MODEL CONSENSUS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS A SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MOVE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. WARM/COLD FRONT REMAINS SOUTH.

ANY MORNING SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD GIVE WAY TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE RAIN AHEAD
OF MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE...DEEPER LIFT.

ANY RAIN LIKELY TAPERS OFF ONCE AGAIN TO SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WED NIGHT.

CONTINUED COOL WEATHER/TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGH/S IN THE 50S...AND
LOWS IN THE 40S. HIGH TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE MID ATLC FROM THE MIDWEST THU AND FRI.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE LOCKED IN...THE DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE OFFSHORE AS THE ADVECTION WILL BE DISPLACED EWD
FROM THE CLOSE LOW. AS A RESULT...PCPN LOOKS TO BE MAINLY LIGHT THU-
FRI. KEPT POPS AT CHC...BUT INCLUDED DZ THU AND THU NGT. BETTER CHC
FOR A ROUND OF MDT RAIN ON FRI WITH THE STRONGEST OF THE SHRTWV
ENERGY...SO PERHAPS MORE OF A RAINY DAY AS OPPOSED TO A DRIZZLY DAY.

THE H5 LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NERN CONUS SAT. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE THOUGH WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. AS A RESULT...POPS AROUND 30. THE SUN MAY
MAKE AN APPEARANCE...BUT THIS COULD LEAD TO QUICK DESTABILIZATION
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS.

BY LATE SAT NGT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE RACING SEWD FROM CNTRL CANADA
AND COULD SPARK SHWRS BY SUN MRNG. THE GFS TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN THE ECMWF...SO WENT WITH CHC POPS ALL DAY SUN BEFORE QUICKLY
DROPPING THEM SUN EVE.

THE COLD AIR WILL BE SO SHORTLIVED THAT HIGHS ON MON ARE LIKELY TO
BE WARMER THAN SUN. HEIGHTS INCREASE ON TUE SO SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND W OF THE HUDSON PER THE
SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTHEAST
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM VLIFR AT HPN TO VFR AT GON.
MOST OF THE OTHER TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT GOING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE VERY WELL COULD BE
FLUCTUATION BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

JUST SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG TONIGHT WITH THE BETTER CHANCE
OF RAIN HOLDING OFF TIL MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS UNDER 10 KT
TONIGHT AND MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY
BY MORNING AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT.

LOW CONFIDENCE ON CATEGORY FORECAST. THE MVFR AND IFR TIMING
COULD EACH BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND
FORECAST. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...PDS OF RAIN/FOG/LOW CLOUDS
WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. NE WINDS G20 KT POSSIBLE WED EVENING
AND ALSO AT TIMES THU AND FRI.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...COLD FROPA SHOULD FINALLY BRING AN END
TO DISMAL CONDITIONS...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AND NW
WINDS G35 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
WELL TO THE NORTH AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS PASS TO THE
SOUTH. WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE.

ON THE OCEAN...DO EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH WED NIGHT PER WAVE
GUIDANCE. AGAIN...WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST EARLY TONIGHT...THEN
AGAIN LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT.

FOR THE NON OCEAN WATERS...DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO BE MET.
WINDS MAY APPROACH FOR A SHORT TIME ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND SOUND
LATER WEDNESDAY.

SCA COND WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN THRU THE WEEKEND. ON THE
PROTECTED WATERS...LGT TO MDT NE FLOW THU-FRI...THEN VRB FLOW ON SAT
BECOMING WLY ON SUN...WHERE THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR 25KT GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT TONIGHT.

MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE WED AND WED NIGHT...BUT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED AS AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT...UNDER A HALF AN INCH.

AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THU AND FRI. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW MOON
ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES WED INTO FRI...AND LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THIS WEEKEND.

PERIODIC NE FLOW IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PREDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/QUEENS.

15 TO 20 KT E/ENE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG VULNERABLE LOCALES OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF WESTERN
LI/NYC, WESTERN LI SOUND, AND POSSIBLY NY/NJ HARBOR DURING WED EVE
HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 1/2 TO 1 FT ARE NEEDED FOR
MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS TO BE REACHED IN MOST OF THESE SPOTS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...FEB/NV/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...FEB/JMC/NV/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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