Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 021129
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NRN
OK. THIS LINE CONTINUES TO HAVE NEW DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED TO THE
SOUTH... CREEPING AS FAR SOUTH AS CANADIAN COUNTY. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE... LEFT OUT MENTION OF TS AT KOKC. WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS
THROUGH THE DAY... ESPECIALLY FOR NRN AND POTENTIALLY CENTRAL TAF
SITES.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND
ITS IMPACTS FOR TODAY.

CURRENTLY... CONVECTION REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE
POSITIONED ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION... ACROSS SWRN KS... HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE WEAK LLJ OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE LONE STORM THAT
MOVED ACROSS KIOWA COUNTY... ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE ORIGINAL
BOUNDARY... HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN... WITH FOCUS PLACED ON THE
BROKEN LINE JUST NORTH OF THE OK/KS BORDER.

THROUGH SUNRISE... EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT S/SE
INTO N CENTRAL OK AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MEANDER SOUTHWARD.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE H-TRIP AND NMM REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT... WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE OK INITIALIZATION... WITH
CURRENT SOLUTIONS SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO. THROUGH 330 AM CDT...
THE LINE WAS CONTINUING TO FILL IN... WITH UP WIND PROP VECTORS
BALANCED WELL WITH 0-3KM SHEAR... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT
START TO PROPAGATE SWRD TOWARD THE BORDER INTO FAR NRN OK THROUGH 4-
5 AM CDT.

HOW THE CURRENT CONVECTION EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL
HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. AT THE MOMENT... EXPECT STORMS TO SLOWLY DRIFT S/SE INTO
CENTRAL OK THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH THROUGH NOON AS
THE BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE TXPH BEGINS TO LIFT N/NE... FORCING THE
SFC FRONT BACK INTO NERN OK/SERN KS. WHEN DEALING WITH E-W
BOUNDARIES... CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DEPENDS GREATLY ON THE IMPACTS OF
INITIAL CONVECTION AND THE SLOW EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... WED-THU SHOULD BE DRY... WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE STALLS OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURN LATE THU/EARLY FRI AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN... AND A WEAK H500 TROUGH SLOWLY DEVELOPS OVER THE
MIDWEST. WITH A MESSY SYNOPTIC PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... THERE WILL BE NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH MONDAY.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  94  75  95  75 /  40  10   0   0
HOBART OK         98  75  97  75 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  76  97  76 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           94  73  97  74 /  20  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     90  75  95  77 /  70  30  10   0
DURANT OK         95  75  95  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/04/04


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