Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 291956
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
256 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast focus is on continued thunderstorm chances through
this afternoon and overnight, as well as additional heavy rainfall
and severe chances in south central and southeastern Oklahoma.

Currently, to put it lightly, it`s been an active day, with showers
and thunderstorms continuing this afternoon across central and
eastern Oklahoma. Currently GOES 16 low level water vapor shows some
slight increase in moisture streaming north and northeast across
western Oklahoma, with dry air still impinging into central
Oklahoma, helping with the north and northeastward push of remaining
convection.

19z Surface analysis reveals the leading edge of the warm front has
pushed as far south as Ardmore, with a broad shield of strato-cu
spread across the remainder of Oklahoma and the vast majority of the
plains, for good measure. Partly cloudy conditions, with flattened
Cumulus across far south central/southeastern has allowed for
sunshine and steamy conditions, Durant is 84/70 at the moment,
soupy. Watching this area closely, especially with the front pushing
in, but 18z sounding from FWD reveals a minor capping inversion in
place. However, radar and GOES 16 Channel 2 loops reveal some
attempts at convective initiation, with orphan anvils showing up
from isolated stronger updrafts on satellite.

Expect the cap to diminish over the next few hours, and aided by
forcing for ascent provided by the front, to begin seeing more
sustained updraft development across south central/southeastern
Oklahoma. No shortage of instability and shear, any strong updrafts
should be capable of large hail, up to golf balls and damaging wind
gusts.

Elsewhere, to the west and and north, rainfall chances will
continue, increasing across western and northwestern Oklahoma this
evening and overnight as the 500mb low lifts northeast across the
Panhandles. Kept out any mention of snow for the far northwest
overnight, as the consensus from bufr profiles would suggest rain is
the primary precipitation type and surface temperatures are not
expected to dip any lower than the mid 30s. So, even if a few flakes
develop, the impacts would be minor and likely to visibilities for a
short while.

Rainfall chances will persist through Sunday morning, primarily
across northern Oklahoma, with the best chance for rain along the
Oklahoma/Kansas border region.

Additional rainfall from this afternoon through tomorrow morning will
be greatest across southeastern Oklahoma, between 1 to 2 inches
possible, primarily from thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
The heaviest area of rainfall from last night/early this morning
fell along a sizable swath beginning near Clinton, continuing to
Kingfisher up to Stillwater, with amounts varying between 2 to 5
inches on average. Flooding of roads and urban areas, creeks and
streams, will persist from this rainfall through the evening and
overnight. Luckily, any additional heavy rainfall over this region
will be isolated, and should be brief. Talked about dropping
counties from the Flood Watch, especially those on the south and
southeast tier of the watch area. However, given the messaging and
impacts to current areas of the watch, decided to hold off on any
changes to keep consistency and avoid confusion given continued
flooding and the additional minor rainfall this afternoon and
evening across portions of the watch area. With that said, flooding
could still become an issue with additional rainfall from
thunderstorms this evening and afternoon across southeastern/south
central Oklahoma.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  42  56  41  70 /  50  20   0   0
Hobart OK         39  55  38  73 /  50  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  43  63  42  76 /  50  10   0   0
Gage OK           35  47  35  69 /  60  50   0   0
Ponca City OK     43  51  40  67 /  60  50  10   0
Durant OK         49  62  44  74 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ016>020-022>032-035-
     038>043-046>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

06/04


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