Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 051116
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
616 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LABOR DAY. A WETTER AND COOLER
PATTERN MAY OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.

TODAY...ANOTHER HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY WILL OCCUR. HUMIDITY MAY BE
A BIT HIGHER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHILE HIGHS SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS. CAPPING MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR A
FEW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF A KNOX CITY TEXAS TO LAWTON TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO
STILLWATER LINE. CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST...AND COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
20 PERCENT.

SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY MAY BE A BIT HOTTER. A FEW STORMS MAY FORM
NEAR A WEAK FRONT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT OVERALL...LATEST MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING STRONGER
CAPPING AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN THESE LOCATIONS. SIMILAR TO
TODAY...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
SOUTHEAST OF LINE MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
20 PERCENT...SO WILL NOT MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
DEPICTING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXACT TIMING OF
THE WETTEST CONDITIONS SEEM UNCERTAIN. NOT SURE IF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. SEVERE POTENTIAL OVERALL APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
LOW. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT BY NEXT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
THAT TEMPERATURES MAY BE MUCH BELOW AVERAGE.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  94  72  96  72 /  10   0  10   0
HOBART OK         97  72 100  73 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  72  99  72 /  10   0  10   0
GAGE OK           97  73  99  74 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     95  75  96  75 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         98  73  98  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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